Jake Lamb

3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 36 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 13.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	32	AAAScranton/Wilk…	357	.289/.420/.454	11	2	86	—	.224/.319/.332
2023	32	MLBLAA	54	.216/.259/.353	2	0	71	-0.7
2024	33	AAAPIT	414	.264/.356/.393	7	0	59	—	.206/.273/.298
2025	34	AAASF	176	.240/.352/.353	2	0	49	—	.185/.273/.261
2026	35	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	36	MLBSF	15	.219/.291/.318	0	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ	37	MLBSF	99	.207/.278/.293	1	0	65	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service13.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Avg EV73

Barrel%67

xwOBA49

Speed10

CompsJose Espinoza (age 36) · Vinny Rottino (age 36) · Pedro Iturbe (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .291 / .318

PA15

HR0

K%27

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.213

POWER40

Barrel%

6710.7

Avg EV

7390.7

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 13.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	21	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	315	280	92	22	5	9	24	51	7	8	2	329	395	539	935	211	371	16	8	405	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	283	231	70	20	0	13	48	70	2	0	0	303	427	558	985	255	380	25	17	428	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	21	17	5	2	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	294	400	412	812	118	385	24	10	353	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	88	77	23	6	0	1	11	25	0	0	0	299	386	416	802	117	431	28	12	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	133	126	29	4	1	4	6	37	0	1	1	230	265	373	638	143	291	28	5	281	71	-5	-0	+1	+2	+3	0.1
2014	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	21	18	9	4	0	1	3	4	0	2	0	500	571	889	1.460	389	615	19	14	616	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	439	374	120	36	5	14	50	100	6	1	0	321	409	556	965	235	394	23	11	414	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	390	350	92	15	5	6	36	97	1	3	2	263	333	386	719	123	344	25	9	322	94	-3	-0	+5	+1	+8	1.2
2015	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	15	11	4	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	364	533	455	988	91	400	7	27	453	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	594	523	130	31	9	29	64	154	3	6	1	249	334	509	843	260	294	26	11	365	121	+15	+1	+4	+2	+13	3.5
2017	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	635	536	133	30	4	30	87	152	7	6	4	248	360	487	847	239	287	24	14	371	122	+16	-0	-3	+2	+14	2.9
2018	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	238	207	46	8	0	6	26	65	1	1	2	222	312	348	660	126	286	27	11	297	85	-4	-1	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2019	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	226	187	36	8	2	6	32	55	5	1	0	193	326	353	679	160	234	24	14	310	91	-3	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.3
2019	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	46	39	7	2	0	1	7	12	0	0	0	179	304	308	612	128	231	26	15	286	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	99	88	17	5	0	3	8	25	3	0	1	193	283	352	635	159	233	25	8	289	85	-2	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
2021	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	170	144	28	4	0	7	22	51	2	0	0	194	310	368	678	174	239	30	13	305	93	-2	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.1
2021	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	69	61	15	5	0	3	8	15	0	0	0	246	333	475	809	230	279	22	12	356	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	111	97	21	6	1	3	11	38	3	0	1	216	315	392	707	175	321	34	10	319	104	+1	-0	-2	-4	+2	-0.3
2022	31	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	276	231	67	12	0	15	39	74	3	1	1	290	399	537	936	247	359	27	14	407	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	54	51	11	1	0	2	3	15	0	0	0	216	259	353	612	137	265	28	6	274	71	-2	+0	+1	-7	+1	-0.7
2023	32	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	357	291	84	15	0	11	58	71	8	2	0	289	420	454	874	165	349	20	16	395	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	356	94	23	1	7	43	84	8	0	1	264	356	393	750	129	320	20	10	335	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	150	36	11	0	2	21	44	5	0	0	240	352	353	706	113	327	25	12	326	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2650	2309	543	112	22	96	295	689	25	18	12	235	328	427	756	192	289	26	11	335	113	+40	-1	+2	-1	+57	10.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	315	290	71	16	4	6	14	73	7	8	2	245	296	390	685	145	290	23	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	283	251	60	16	0	10	28	96	2	0	0	239	320	422	743	183	333	34	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	21	18	3	1	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	167	250	222	472	56	289	33	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	133	126	29	4	1	4	6	37	0	1	1	230	265	373	638	143	291	28	5	274	71	-5	-0	+1	+2	+3	0.1
2014	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	21	19	7	3	0	1	2	5	0	2	0	368	429	684	1.113	316	516	24	10	469	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	439	393	110	34	4	13	31	123	6	1	0	280	342	486	828	206	355	28	7	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	390	353	90	14	4	6	33	97	1	3	2	255	320	368	689	113	344	25	8	307	94	-3	-0	+5	+1	+8	1.2
2015	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	15	12	4	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	333	467	417	883	83	366	7	20	386	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	594	528	125	28	7	29	59	154	3	6	1	237	317	481	798	244	294	26	10	347	121	+15	+1	+4	+2	+13	3.5
2017	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	635	549	129	27	3	30	74	152	7	6	4	235	333	459	792	224	287	24	12	348	122	+16	-0	-3	+2	+14	2.9
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	238	207	45	7	0	6	26	65	1	1	2	217	308	338	646	121	286	27	11	294	85	-4	-1	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2019	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	226	188	35	7	2	6	31	55	5	1	0	186	317	340	657	154	234	24	14	302	91	-3	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.3
2019	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	46	41	5	1	0	1	5	16	0	0	0	122	217	220	437	98	189	35	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	99	88	17	5	0	3	8	25	3	0	1	193	283	352	635	159	233	25	8	293	85	-2	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
2021	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	170	144	28	4	0	7	22	51	2	0	0	194	310	368	678	174	239	30	13	305	93	-2	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.1
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	69	64	12	4	0	2	5	18	0	0	0	188	246	344	590	156	221	26	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	111	97	21	6	1	3	11	38	3	0	1	216	315	392	707	175	321	34	10	322	104	+1	-0	-2	-4	+2	-0.3
2022	31	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	276	246	56	10	0	10	24	88	3	1	1	228	304	390	694	163	298	32	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	54	51	11	1	0	2	3	15	0	0	0	216	259	353	612	137	265	28	6	273	71	-2	+0	+1	-7	+1	-0.7
2023	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	357	313	70	13	0	7	36	85	8	2	0	224	319	332	652	109	287	24	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	373	77	17	1	5	26	106	8	0	1	206	273	298	570	91	260	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	157	29	9	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	185	273	261	534	76	260	30	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	315	290	71	16	4	6	14	73	7	8	2	245	296	390	685	145	302	23	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	315	280	92	22	5	9	24	51	7	8	2	329	395	539	935	211	371	16	8	405	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	392	348	82	23	0	13	38	133	3	0	0	236	316	414	730	178	337	34	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	392	325	98	28	0	14	61	100	3	0	0	302	416	517	933	215	393	26	16	410	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	593	538	146	41	5	17	39	165	6	4	1	271	328	461	789	190	352	28	7	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	593	518	158	44	6	19	59	141	6	4	1	305	383	523	906	218	378	24	10	391	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	405	365	94	15	4	6	36	98	1	3	2	258	326	370	696	112	333	24	9	310	96	-2	-0	+5	+1	+9	1.3
2015	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	405	361	96	16	5	6	40	98	1	3	2	266	341	388	729	122	346	24	10	326	96	-2	-0	+5	+1	+9	1.3
2016	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	594	528	125	28	7	29	59	154	3	6	1	237	317	481	798	244	275	26	10	347	121	+15	+1	+4	+2	+13	3.5
2016	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	594	523	130	31	9	29	64	154	3	6	1	249	334	509	843	260	294	26	11	365	121	+15	+1	+4	+2	+13	3.5
2017	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	635	549	129	27	3	30	74	152	7	6	4	235	333	459	792	224	266	24	12	348	122	+16	-0	-3	+2	+14	2.9
2017	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	635	536	133	30	4	30	87	152	7	6	4	248	360	487	847	239	287	24	14	371	122	+16	-0	-3	+2	+14	2.9
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	238	207	45	7	0	6	26	65	1	1	2	217	308	338	646	121	279	27	11	294	85	-4	-1	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2018	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	238	207	46	8	0	6	26	65	1	1	2	222	312	348	660	126	286	27	11	297	85	-4	-1	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	229	41	9	2	7	36	71	5	1	0	179	304	328	631	148	222	26	13	285	79	-7	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2019	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	272	226	43	10	2	7	39	67	5	1	0	190	322	345	667	155	234	25	14	306	79	-7	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	99	88	17	5	0	3	8	25	3	0	1	193	283	352	635	159	233	25	8	293	85	-2	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
2020	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	99	88	17	5	0	3	8	25	3	0	1	193	283	352	635	159	233	25	8	289	85	-2	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	239	208	40	8	0	9	27	69	2	0	0	192	291	361	652	168	235	29	11	287	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	239	205	43	9	0	10	30	66	2	0	0	210	316	400	716	190	252	28	13	320	81	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	343	77	16	1	13	35	126	6	1	2	224	307	391	698	166	309	33	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	387	328	88	18	1	18	50	112	6	1	2	268	375	494	869	226	348	29	13	381	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	411	364	81	14	0	9	39	100	8	2	0	223	311	335	647	113	282	24	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	411	342	95	16	0	13	61	86	8	2	0	278	399	439	838	161	337	21	15	379	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	373	77	17	1	5	26	106	8	0	1	206	273	298	570	91	268	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	356	94	23	1	7	43	84	8	0	1	264	356	393	750	129	320	20	10	335	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	157	29	9	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	185	273	261	534	76	269	30	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	150	36	11	0	2	21	44	5	0	0	240	352	353	706	113	327	25	12	326	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	315	291	71	16	4	6	14	73	7	8	2	244	296	388	684	144	290	23	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	392	348	82	23	0	13	38	133	3	0	0	236	316	414	730	178	330	34	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	593	543	146	41	5	17	39	165	6	4	1	269	328	457	784	188	346	28	7	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	405	365	94	15	4	6	36	98	1	3	2	258	326	370	696	112	345	24	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	594	527	125	28	7	29	59	154	3	6	1	237	317	482	799	245	294	26	10	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	635	549	129	27	3	30	74	152	7	6	4	235	333	459	792	224	287	24	12	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	238	209	45	7	0	6	26	65	1	1	2	215	308	335	643	120	286	27	11	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	229	41	9	2	7	36	71	5	1	0	179	304	328	631	148	227	26	13	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	99	88	17	5	0	3	8	25	3	0	1	193	283	352	635	159	233	25	8	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	239	208	40	8	0	9	27	69	2	0	0	192	291	361	652	168	234	29	11	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	343	77	16	1	13	35	126	6	1	2	224	307	391	698	166	305	33	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	411	361	81	14	0	9	39	100	8	2	0	224	311	338	649	114	284	24	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	377	77	17	1	5	26	106	8	0	1	204	273	294	567	90	260	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	155	29	9	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	187	273	265	537	77	260	30	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	377	77	17	1	5	26	106	8	0	1	204	273	294	567	90	260	26	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	176	155	29	9	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	187	273	265	537	77	260	30	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	SF	10%	236	212	47	10	1	3	18	59	4	3	1	222	294	325	619	103	289	25	8	281	76	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	SF	10%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	219	291	318	610	99	286	27	7	277	76	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	SF	100%	99	90	18	4	0	1	7	25	2	0	0	210	280	299	579	89	278	25	7	265	65	-4	+0	-7	+0	+2	-0.9
2028	37	MLB CTX	SF	100%	99	90	18	4	0	1	7	25	2	0	0	207	278	293	571	86	275	25	7	261	65	-4	+0	-7	+0	+2	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2749	2399	561	116	22	97	302	714	27	18	12	234	326	422	748	188	288	26	11	332	95	+35	-1	-5	-0	+60	9.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	132	27	5	23	71	169	6	4	3	233	324	420	744	187	287	26	11	332	95	+8	-0	-1	-0	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5415	4809	1101	245	28	157	489	1450	69	34	17	229	309	389	699	161	290	27	9	309	95	+31	-1	-5	+0	+63	9.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	132	29	3	19	59	174	8	4	2	229	309	388	697	159	290	27	9	309	95	+7	-0	-1	+0	+14	2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 176 PAwOBA .318 → .240 (−78)K% 25.0% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	29.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.93%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.940	7.66%
HBP% /PA	2.84%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.51%
Singles /BIP	21.70%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.955	×0.940	17.59%
Doubles /BIP	10.38%	÷0.959	×0.830	×0.955	×0.940	8.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.955	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .318 → .240; ISO .113 → .085; BABIP .327 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 414 PAwOBA .329 → .256 (−73)K% 20.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	25.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.66%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.42%
HBP% /PA	1.93%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.71%
Singles /BIP	23.16%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.981	×0.940	19.70%
Doubles /BIP	8.46%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.981	×0.940	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.981	×0.940	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	2.57%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .329 → .256; ISO .129 → .095; BABIP .320 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 357 PAwOBA .385 → .295 (−90)K% 19.9% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.89%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.25%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.97%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.98%
Singles /BIP	26.36%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.980	×0.942	21.98%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷0.903	×0.830	×0.980	×0.942	5.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.048	×0.970	×0.980	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .385 → .295; ISO .165 → .122; BABIP .349 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 276 PAwOBA .400 → .305 (−95)K% 26.8% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.81%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	31.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.13%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.65%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.97%
Singles /BIP	25.48%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.006	×0.952	22.10%
Doubles /BIP	7.64%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.006	×0.952	6.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.970	×1.006	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.55%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×0.952	6.39%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .400 → .305; ISO .247 → .178; BABIP .359 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 69 PAwOBA .347 → .244 (−103)K% 21.7% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	25.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.59%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.22%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.992	×0.962	13.69%
Doubles /BIP	10.87%	÷1.128	×0.830	×0.992	×0.962	7.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.992	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.52%	÷1.190	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.69%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .347 → .244; ISO .230 → .142; BABIP .279 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 46 PAwOBA .279 → .203 (−76)K% 26.1% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	34.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.22%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.982	10.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.81%	÷1.035	×0.900	—	×0.982	12.65%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.025	×0.810	—	×0.982	5.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×0.982	2.63%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .279 → .203; ISO .128 → .088; BABIP .231 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAReno Aces · 15 PAwOBA .443 → .386 (−57)K% 6.7% → 8.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.67%	÷0.969	×1.290	—	—	8.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.67%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.033	19.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷0.964	×0.900	—	×1.033	28.92%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.083	×0.810	—	×1.033	7.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .443 → .386; ISO .091 → .075; BABIP .400 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAMobile BayBears · 439 PAwOBA .409 → .358 (−51)K% 22.8% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.78%	÷0.993	×1.220	—	—	27.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.030	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.15%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.16%
Singles /BIP	23.72%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.979	×1.012	21.24%
Doubles /BIP	13.14%	÷0.965	×0.910	×0.979	×1.012	12.27%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷1.038	×0.880	×0.979	×1.012	1.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.11%	÷0.902	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.59%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 108, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .409 → .358; ISO .235 → .218; BABIP .394 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#2Jack Howell'85-'99 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,982 PA	4.5	2,982	108	14	236*	317*	441*	-0	+15	13.0	12.6
/162	664	24	3	-0.1	+3.4	2.9	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	4.2	2,764	97	19	235	324	424	+7	+3	11.5	11.7
/162	664	23	4	+1.7	+0.8	2.8	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Bill Sudakis'68-'75 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,751 PA	2.6	1,751	59	9	233*	310*	430*	-3	+17	7.9	8.2
/162	664	22	3	-1.2	+6.6	3.0	pk7: 8
#5Willie Greene'92-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,183 PA	3.3	2,183	86	17	225*	313*	415*	-4	+5	5.9	6.5
/162	664	26	5	-1.1	+1.5	1.8	pk7: 7
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Lamb (OGILVIE)	36	45	40	45	55	220/292/322	102	289	2	2	25%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Espinoza 2010 · AAA	36	52→53	39→40	42→45	48	250/303/337	87	297	7	8	18%	6%	82	+0.0	243/300/335	92	296	7	8	19%	7%	80	-0.1	243/302/325	82	297	6	5	19%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Vinny Rottino 2016 · AAA	36	44→54	42→45	49→55	45	218/276/317	99	276	10	5	24%	7%	68	-1.0	209/276/303	94	272	9	6	25%	7%	65	-1.2	173/252/229	57	227	6	0	25%	8%	38	-1.4
✕Pedro Iturbe 2006 · AAA	37	51	39→40	42→30	40	245/276/333	89	295	6	7	19%	3%	71	-0.8	253/282/351	98	287	10	4	16%	3%	78	-0.3	269/294/367	97	299	11	1	14%	2%	82	+0.0
✕Jesus Rivera 2014 · AAA	36	50→52	39→40	42→40	46	237/279/317	80	272	7	5	16%	5%	68	-1.0	225/275/295	70	273	5	4	18%	6%	62	-1.4	259/304/311	52	303	1	4	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Daniel Nunez 2017 · AAA	35	49	37→30	44→50	46	233/287/305	71	278	5	11	18%	6%	70	-0.9	219/278/279	60	270	4	11	19%	6%	60	-1.6	202/263/229	27	254	0	9	19%	6%	40	-1.3
✕Don Kelly 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	40→45	51→55	57	226/308/321	95	257	8	11	15%	10%	81	-0.1	196/261/278	82	243	7	7	21%	8%	54	-2.0	153/214/194	41	195	2	2	21%	7%	15	-2.1
✕Hector Hernandez 2019 · AAA	36	50→53	37→40	45→50	46	234/275/303	69	264	5	7	14%	5%	63	-1.3	250/296/349	99	296	9	8	18%	5%	82	+0.0	282/318/355	74	330	5	2	16%	4%	93	+0.3
✕Paul Bako 2007 · MLB	35	46	37→45	47→40	47	219/282/290	71	289	5	5	25%	8%	64	-1.3	221/286/312	91	298	9	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	217/284/304	87	290	9	0	27%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Francisco Mendez 2014 · AAA	36	42→52	43→45	40	47	208/283/317	109	281	11	3	29%	9%	72	-0.7	218/291/332	114	298	13	4	29%	9%	78	-0.3	212/286/321	108	285	13	2	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Doug Bernier 2016 · MLB	36	48→52	38→40	43→45	45	226/280/302	75	281	5	6	21%	6%	65	-1.2	216/269/304	88	281	9	7	25%	6%	63	-1.4	208/260/290	83	273	9	5	26%	6%	53	-1.3
✕Curtis Pride 2005 · MLB	36	48	45	51→55	43	238/292/367	129	300	12	12	24%	6%	86	+0.3	232/305/361	129	313	12	18	27%	9%	89	+0.5	222/299/340	118	307	10	21	29%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Shamar Almeida 2007 · AAA	35	45	43→45	46→45	55	219/315/325	107	285	11	8	26%	12%	86	+0.3	234/316/337	103	275	9	5	17%	10%	88	+0.4	249/330/346	97	284	9	2	15%	10%	94	+0.5
✕Shawn Wooten 2008 · AAA	36	43→42	40→45	47→30	42	211/256/298	87	251	9	3	20%	5%	56	-1.9	202/258/293	91	258	9	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	149/209/212	63	193	7	0	26%	6%	17	-1.4
✕Jason Wood 2007 · AAA	37	46	45	44→40	44	230/280/349	119	279	13	4	23%	6%	77	-0.3	225/273/322	97	282	10	5	23%	6%	68	-1.0	218/265/289	71	274	7	3	22%	5%	56	-0.8
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2014 · MLB	36	49→56	39→40	48→55	48	234/286/320	87	278	6	10	18%	7%	72	-0.7	244/292/323	79	287	6	9	16%	6%	75	-0.5	246/293/309	63	288	5	8	15%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Raul Sanchez 2010 · AAA	37	48→52	38→45	45→50	46	230/285/309	79	271	6	11	17%	6%	70	-0.9	244/295/334	90	292	7	7	18%	5%	79	-0.2	254/301/341	88	302	6	4	17%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Fernando Alejos 2015 · AAA	36	48→55	38→45	45→50	48	230/285/305	75	281	6	7	20%	7%	68	-1.0	217/279/293	76	269	5	9	20%	8%	63	-1.3	200/272/222	23	235	0	5	14%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	43	218/276/297	79	299	6	11	28%	7%	63	-1.3	207/259/340	133	322	16	10	39%	6%	68	-1.0	127/163/250	124	192	20	5	47%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Howie Clark 2009 · MLB	35	50→55	42→40	49→40	48	238/278/343	105	252	9	6	10%	5%	74	-0.5	247/290/350	103	265	9	7	10%	5%	80	-0.1	259/301/344	85	274	6	4	8%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Ildelfonso Lara 2009 · AAA	34	48→51	42→45	50→45	47	233/291/341	108	288	9	6	22%	7%	79	-0.2	229/288/340	111	296	11	8	25%	7%	78	-0.3	227/285/319	92	295	10	5	25%	6%	70	-0.4

Jake Lamb

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps