Jeimer Candelario

3B Salt Lake Bees

Age 33 S/R 6'1" / 222 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 7.320 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	MLBCIN	463	.225/.280/.429	20	4	90	-0.1
2025	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	453	.200/.288/.347	11	1	38	—	.149/.215/.243
2025	31	MLBCIN	91	.112/.202/.212	2	0	13	-0.5
2026	32	AAALAA	387	.281/.378/.509	15	3	75	—	.208/.280/.362
2026	32	MLBLAA	20	.111/.200/.222	0	0	25	-0.3
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBLAA	32	.202/.269/.356	1	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ	34	MLBLAA	260	.192/.258/.335	7	0	66	-1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 2 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.320First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%47

Bat Spd47

Speed26

Avg EV24

xwOBA18

CompsMario Lisson (age 33) · Sandy León (age 33) · Hector Gimenez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7676vR 76

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .269 / .356

PA32

HR1

K%31

BB%6

BABIP270

ISO133

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.203

POWER

Barrel%

477.8

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

4771.0

SPEED

Sprint

2626.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 554 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

171

383

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

294

286

—

ISO

162

197

▶▶R

BABIP

241

238

—

21.6%

27.7%

◀◀L

BB%

9.4%

5.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.320 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.1M	-$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$1.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$18.0M / $3.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 2	—	305	249	84	16	2	5	50	42	1	4	4	337	450	478	928	141	382	14	16	410	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Kane County Cougars	—	573	501	127	35	1	11	68	90	2	1	0	253	345	393	738	140	289	16	12	333	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	244	218	42	10	2	5	23	44	2	0	3	193	276	326	601	133	218	18	9	273	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	263	244	61	19	3	6	18	45	0	0	1	250	302	426	728	176	284	17	7	320	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	182	158	46	10	1	5	22	21	1	0	0	291	381	462	843	171	308	12	12	374	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	343	318	86	25	3	5	20	62	3	0	1	270	320	415	735	145	320	18	6	325	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	89	82	27	8	0	5	6	10	0	0	1	329	375	610	985	280	324	11	7	422	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	309	264	88	22	3	9	38	53	3	0	2	333	423	542	965	208	383	17	12	419	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	244	210	46	17	1	4	32	46	1	0	0	219	325	367	692	148	261	19	13	314	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	142	127	36	9	0	3	13	30	2	0	0	283	359	425	784	142	351	21	9	353	129	+5	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.9
2017	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	458	407	108	36	4	15	46	104	3	1	0	265	344	484	828	219	321	23	10	363	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	94	83	24	4	1	1	10	18	1	0	0	289	372	398	770	108	359	19	11	349	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	619	539	121	28	3	19	66	160	9	3	2	224	319	393	713	169	279	26	11	319	105	+4	-0	+2	+2	+13	2.2
2019	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	386	335	68	17	2	8	43	99	7	3	1	203	306	337	644	134	262	26	11	295	88	-6	+0	+2	+2	+8	0.8
2019	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	178	153	49	10	2	9	22	35	3	0	0	320	416	588	1.004	268	367	20	12	436	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Toros del Este	—	100	86	21	9	2	1	12	20	1	0	0	244	343	430	774	186	303	20	12	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	206	185	55	11	3	7	20	49	1	1	1	297	369	503	872	205	372	24	10	383	150	+12	-0	+1	-5	+4	1.3
2020	26	INTL	Toros del Este	—	48	42	8	3	0	0	4	7	2	0	0	190	292	262	554	71	229	15	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	626	557	151	42	3	16	65	135	4	0	0	271	351	443	795	172	333	22	10	354	129	+22	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.0
2022	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	467	429	93	19	2	13	28	109	6	0	1	217	274	361	636	145	257	23	6	283	80	-11	-0	-2	+2	+10	-0.2
2022	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	19	16	6	2	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	375	444	688	1.132	312	385	16	11	461	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	INTL	Toros del Este	—	44	42	4	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	95	136	95	232		118	18	2	115	-36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	576	505	127	39	3	22	53	127	13	8	1	251	337	471	809	220	292	22	9	355	125	+17	+1	+1	+2	+12	3.4
2024	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	463	427	96	23	2	20	27	114	6	4	3	225	280	429	709	204	257	25	6	311	90	-5	-0	-7	+2	+10	-0.1
2024	30	INTL	Toros del Este	—	18	16	5	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	312	389	375	764	62	385	17	6	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	91	80	9	2	0	2	9	29	0	0	1	113	202	212	415	100	137	32	10	193	13	-9	-0	+1	+2	+2	-0.5
2025	31	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	322	284	58	18	0	8	31	94	6	0	1	204	296	352	648	148	273	29	10	294	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Toros del Este	—	131	117	22	6	1	3	11	40	2	1	0	188	267	333	601	145	257	31	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	20	18	2	2	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	111	200	222	422	111	200	40	5	200	25	-2	+0	-3	+1	+0	-0.3
2026	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	387	334	94	19	6	15	48	113	4	3	3	281	378	509	887	228	382	29	12	389	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3596	3202	758	192	18	110	325	860	49	19	10	237	316	411	727	174	288	24	9	324	105	+22	-0	-5	+14	+78	11.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	305	264	58	10	1	2	35	51	1	4	4	220	313	288	601	68	255	17	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	573	524	110	30	1	10	45	125	2	1	0	210	275	328	603	118	253	22	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	244	224	37	9	2	4	17	65	2	0	3	165	230	277	507	112	207	27	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	263	251	51	17	2	4	11	64	0	0	1	203	237	335	571	131	256	24	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	182	165	44	10	1	4	15	27	1	0	0	267	331	412	744	145	295	15	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	343	325	74	19	2	5	13	86	3	0	1	228	264	345	609	117	292	25	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	309	276	85	21	3	8	26	66	3	0	2	308	374	493	867	185	370	21	8	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	244	219	43	17	1	3	23	57	1	0	0	196	276	324	600	128	246	23	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	142	127	36	9	0	3	13	30	2	0	0	283	359	425	784	142	351	21	9	358	129	+5	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.9
2017	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	458	420	96	33	3	12	33	124	3	1	0	229	289	407	697	179	295	27	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	619	540	124	29	3	20	65	160	9	3	2	230	322	406	728	176	279	26	11	323	105	+4	-0	+2	+2	+13	2.2
2019	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	386	336	69	17	2	8	42	99	7	3	1	205	306	339	646	134	262	26	11	298	88	-6	+0	+2	+2	+8	0.8
2019	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	178	160	44	8	2	9	15	40	3	0	0	275	348	519	867	244	317	22	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	206	185	55	11	3	7	20	49	1	1	1	297	369	503	872	205	372	24	10	390	150	+12	-0	+1	-5	+4	1.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	558	154	43	3	17	64	135	4	0	0	276	355	455	810	179	333	22	10	359	129	+22	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.0
2022	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	467	430	95	19	2	14	27	109	6	0	1	221	276	372	649	151	257	23	6	287	80	-11	-0	-2	+2	+10	-0.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	19	17	6	2	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	353	389	647	1.036	294	325	21	5	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	576	507	127	38	3	23	52	127	13	8	1	250	336	473	809	223	292	22	9	353	125	+17	+1	+1	+2	+12	3.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	463	428	95	23	2	19	26	114	6	4	3	222	276	418	694	196	257	25	6	302	90	-5	-0	-7	+2	+10	-0.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	91	80	9	2	0	2	9	29	0	0	1	113	202	212	415	100	137	32	10	188	13	-9	-0	+1	+2	+2	-0.5
2025	31	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	322	296	44	13	0	5	19	115	6	0	1	149	215	243	458	95	220	36	6	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	20	18	2	2	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	111	200	222	422	111	200	40	5	205	25	-2	+0	-3	+1	+0	-0.3
2026	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	387	351	73	14	5	10	31	135	4	3	3	208	280	362	642	154	303	35	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	305	264	58	10	1	2	35	51	1	4	4	220	313	288	601	68	259	17	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 2	—	305	249	84	16	2	5	50	42	1	4	4	337	450	478	928	141	382	14	16	410	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	573	524	110	30	1	10	45	125	2	1	0	210	275	328	603	118	256	22	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	—	573	501	127	35	1	11	68	90	2	1	0	253	345	393	738	140	289	16	12	333	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	507	475	89	26	4	9	28	129	2	0	4	187	236	316	551	128	236	25	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	507	462	103	29	5	11	41	89	2	0	4	223	289	379	668	156	253	18	8	297	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	572	138	34	3	10	34	131	4	0	2	241	289	364	652	122	294	21	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	614	558	159	43	4	15	48	93	4	0	2	285	346	457	803	172	317	15	8	354	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	553	495	128	38	4	11	49	122	4	0	2	259	330	418	748	160	319	22	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	553	474	134	39	4	13	70	99	4	0	2	283	380	464	844	181	330	18	13	372	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	694	633	155	49	4	18	53	178	6	1	0	245	309	420	729	175	312	26	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	694	617	168	49	5	19	69	152	6	1	0	272	351	460	811	188	333	22	10	359	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	619	540	124	29	3	20	65	160	9	3	2	230	322	406	728	176	285	26	11	323	105	+4	-0	+2	+2	+13	2.2
2018	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	619	539	121	28	3	19	66	160	9	3	2	224	319	393	713	169	279	26	11	319	105	+4	-0	+2	+2	+13	2.2
2019	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	664	584	133	30	4	20	67	163	11	3	1	228	319	396	714	168	280	25	10	320	103	+2	+0	+2	+2	+14	2.2
2019	25	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	664	574	138	36	6	18	77	154	11	3	1	240	341	418	760	178	297	23	12	340	103	+2	+0	+2	+2	+14	2.2
2020	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	254	226	69	14	4	9	25	60	3	1	1	305	382	522	904	217	382	24	10	390	150	+15	-0	+1	-5	+6	1.7
2020	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	254	227	63	14	3	7	24	56	3	1	1	278	354	458	812	181	341	22	9	361	150	+15	-0	+1	-5	+6	1.7
2021	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	558	154	43	3	17	64	135	4	0	0	276	355	455	810	179	337	22	10	359	129	+22	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.0
2021	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	626	557	151	42	3	16	65	135	4	0	0	271	351	443	795	172	333	22	10	354	129	+22	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.0
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	530	487	109	23	2	16	31	123	7	0	1	224	280	378	658	154	263	23	6	291	83	-11	-0	-2	+2	+11	-0.0
2022	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	530	487	103	21	2	14	31	120	7	0	1	211	269	349	618	138	249	23	6	275	83	-11	-0	-2	+2	+11	-0.0
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	576	507	127	38	3	23	52	127	13	8	1	250	336	473	809	223	288	22	9	353	125	+17	+1	+1	+2	+12	3.4
2023	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	576	505	127	39	3	22	53	127	13	8	1	251	337	471	809	220	292	22	9	355	125	+17	+1	+1	+2	+12	3.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	481	444	98	24	2	19	27	118	7	4	3	221	276	412	688	191	255	25	6	302	90	-6	-0	-7	+2	+10	-0.1
2024	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	481	443	101	24	2	20	28	117	7	4	3	228	285	427	711	199	262	24	6	312	90	-6	-0	-7	+2	+10	-0.1
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	544	496	70	20	0	9	37	190	8	1	2	141	213	236	448	95	203	35	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	544	481	89	26	1	13	51	163	8	1	2	185	274	324	598	139	247	30	9	272	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	407	369	75	16	5	10	32	143	5	3	3	203	276	355	631	152	300	35	8	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	407	352	96	21	6	15	49	121	5	3	3	273	369	494	864	222	373	30	12	380	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	—	305	266	58	10	1	2	35	51	1	4	4	218	313	286	599	68	255	17	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	573	521	110	30	1	10	45	125	2	1	0	211	275	330	605	119	253	22	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	507	472	89	26	4	9	28	129	2	0	4	189	236	318	553	129	232	25	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	571	138	34	3	10	34	131	4	0	2	242	289	364	653	123	293	21	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	553	495	128	38	4	11	49	122	4	0	2	259	330	418	748	160	315	22	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	694	630	155	49	4	18	53	178	6	1	0	246	309	422	731	176	308	26	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	619	540	124	29	3	20	65	160	9	3	2	230	322	406	728	176	279	26	11	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	664	581	133	30	4	20	67	163	11	3	1	229	319	398	716	169	279	25	10	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	254	224	69	14	4	9	25	60	3	1	1	308	382	527	909	219	372	24	10	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	553	154	43	3	17	64	135	4	0	0	278	355	459	814	181	333	22	10	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	530	487	109	23	2	16	31	123	7	0	1	224	280	378	658	154	260	23	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	576	506	127	38	3	23	52	127	13	8	1	251	336	474	810	223	292	22	9	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	481	444	98	24	2	19	27	118	7	4	3	221	276	412	688	191	257	25	6	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	544	494	70	20	0	9	37	190	8	1	2	142	213	237	449	95	202	35	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	407	367	75	16	5	10	32	143	5	3	3	204	276	357	633	153	298	35	8	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	481	444	98	24	2	19	27	118	7	4	3	221	276	412	688	191	257	25	6	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	544	494	70	20	0	9	37	190	8	1	2	142	213	237	449	95	202	35	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	407	367	75	16	5	10	32	143	5	3	3	204	276	357	633	153	298	35	8	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAA	10%	416	378	77	17	3	12	30	131	5	3	1	203	271	358	628	154	272	31	7	280	76	-12	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAA	10%	32	30	5	1	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	202	269	356	626	154	270	31	6	279	76	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	260	237	46	10	2	7	18	84	3	0	0	193	259	336	596	143	262	32	7	266	66	-10	+0	-6	+1	+6	-1.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	260	237	45	9	2	7	18	84	3	0	0	192	258	335	593	143	260	32	7	265	66	-10	+0	-6	+1	+6	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3856	3439	803	201	20	117	343	944	52	19	10	233	312	406	718	172	286	24	9	320	89	+12	-0	-11	+15	+84	10.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	135	34	3	20	58	159	9	3	2	233	312	405	717	172	285	24	9	320	89	+2	-0	-2	+2	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	8523	7697	1741	447	47	219	685	2139	93	31	27	226	297	382	679	156	283	25	8	300	89	+2	-0	-13	+16	+90	9.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	133	34	4	17	52	163	7	2	2	227	297	385	682	158	282	25	8	300	89	+0	-0	-2	+2	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 387 PAwOBA .380 → .279 (−101)K% 29.2% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.20%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.40%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.06%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.92%
Singles /BIP	24.43%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	20.34%
Doubles /BIP	8.60%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	6.39%
Triples /BIP	2.71%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	2.36%
Home runs /BIP	6.79%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	4.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .380 → .279; ISO .228 → .159; BABIP .382 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 322 PAwOBA .288 → .205 (−82)K% 29.2% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.19%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	35.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.63%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.87%
HBP% /PA	1.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.67%
Singles /BIP	16.84%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.974	×0.952	14.41%
Doubles /BIP	9.47%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.974	×0.952	7.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.974	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.21%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .288 → .205; ISO .148 → .096; BABIP .273 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 19 PAwOBA .473 → .396 (−77)K% 15.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	18.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.015	×0.930	—	×0.982	20.76%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.015	×0.830	—	×0.982	12.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .473 → .396; ISO .312 → .244; BABIP .385 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 178 PAwOBA .425 → .368 (−57)K% 19.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.66%	÷1.056	×1.200	—	—	22.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.36%	÷1.004	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.65%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.61%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷1.013	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	21.07%
Doubles /BIP	8.47%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	6.83%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.096	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	1.45%
Home runs /BIP	7.63%	÷0.888	×0.840	—	×1.018	7.34%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 119, K 111, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .425 → .368; ISO .268 → .249; BABIP .367 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 458 PAwOBA .354 → .305 (−49)K% 22.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.71%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	27.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.83%	÷0.996	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.13%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.65%
Singles /BIP	17.49%	÷1.054	×0.930	×0.994	×1.048	16.07%
Doubles /BIP	11.88%	÷0.916	×0.830	×0.994	×1.048	11.21%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.994	×1.048	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	4.95%	÷1.049	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 111, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .354 → .305; ISO .219 → .190; BABIP .321 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 309 PAwOBA .411 → .379 (−32)K% 17.2% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.15%	÷1.037	×1.290	—	—	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.65%	÷1.034	×0.710	—	×1.050	8.40%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.00%
Singles /BIP	25.59%	÷1.006	×0.900	×1.039	×1.050	24.97%
Doubles /BIP	10.43%	÷0.927	×0.810	×1.039	×1.050	9.93%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷0.945	×0.810	×1.039	×1.050	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	4.27%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.92%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .411 → .379; ISO .208 → .198; BABIP .383 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATennessee Smokies · 244 PAwOBA .307 → .265 (−42)K% 18.9% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.85%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.11%	÷0.982	×0.680	—	×1.027	9.33%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.35%
Singles /BIP	14.63%	÷1.013	×0.920	×0.978	×1.027	13.34%
Doubles /BIP	10.37%	÷0.918	×0.910	×0.978	×1.027	10.32%
Triples /BIP	0.61%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.978	×1.027	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.89%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .307 → .265; ISO .148 → .134; BABIP .261 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 343 PAwOBA .318 → .265 (−53)K% 18.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.08%	÷1.025	×1.420	—	—	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.83%	÷0.960	×0.630	—	×1.012	3.87%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.76%
Singles /BIP	20.70%	÷0.977	×0.940	×0.994	×1.012	20.03%
Doubles /BIP	9.77%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.994	×1.012	8.03%
Triples /BIP	1.17%	÷1.138	×0.800	×0.994	×1.012	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	1.95%	÷0.888	×0.900	—	×1.012	2.00%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .318 → .265; ISO .145 → .119; BABIP .320 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Steve Buechele'85-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,790 PA	7.2	4,790	137	17	242*	314*	413*	+16	+18	15.7	16.1
/162	664	19	2	+2.2	+2.5	2.2	pk7: 16
#2Scott Brosius'91-'01 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,356 PA	6.6	4,356	141	57	245*	309*	410*	+6	+18	14.1	15.1
/162	664	21	9	+1.0	+2.8	2.1	pk7: 16
#3Mike Pagliarulo'84-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,317 PA	6.5	4,317	134	18	238*	304*	423*	+14	+21	14.1	14.0
/162	664	21	3	+2.2	+3.2	2.2	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.8	3,868	118	19	236	311	409	+14	-4	12.8	13.3
/162	664	20	3	+2.4	-0.7	2.2	pk7: 14
#4Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#5Brandon Drurylast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,110 PA	4.7	3,110	109	5	246	298	425	+4	+2	9.5	10.6
/162	664	23	1	+0.8	+0.5	2.0	pk7: 12
#6Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	5.4	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
/162	664	24	1	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeimer Candelario (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	201/268/354	153	272	9	2	31%	7%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mario Lisson 2017 · AAA	33	45→49	45→50	43→55	45	224/294/347	123	297	14	8	28%	8%	82	+0.0	210/274/337	127	276	14	9	28%	8%	72	-0.7	162/219/280	119	197	14	6	26%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Sandy León 2022 · MLB	33	39→49	45	45→30	45	199/268/310	111	256	14	4	28%	8%	64	-1.3	194/278/285	91	266	9	4	28%	10%	63	-1.4	159/258/219	59	231	6	0	31%	11%	40	-1.0
✕Hector Gimenez 2016 · MLB	33	42→49	51→55	42→40	42	222/265/376	155	259	19	3	23%	5%	78	-0.3	218/260/345	127	266	14	5	23%	5%	69	-0.9	200/238/302	102	244	12	1	23%	4%	50	-1.6
✕Brooks Conrad 2015 · MLB	35	39→43	55	38→50	41	212/266/391	180	271	24	3	32%	7%	82	+0.0	190/250/311	121	256	13	6	30%	6%	57	-1.8	137/201/214	77	188	7	3	30%	6%	15	-2.5
✕Abraham M. Nunez 2008 · AAA	31	45	49→50	41→45	43	228/280/373	145	290	17	7	27%	6%	83	+0.1	229/291/359	130	287	14	8	24%	7%	84	+0.1	211/299/297	85	250	6	4	17%	10%	72	-0.2
✕Mike Wilson 2015 · AAA	32	42→52	49→55	41→50	41	215/273/362	147	294	18	7	33%	7%	78	-0.3	222/287/362	140	310	16	10	32%	7%	84	+0.1	184/266/293	109	258	15	5	33%	6%	59	-0.3
✕Mike Rose 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	41→40	43	211/268/338	128	277	14	6	29%	7%	70	-0.8	215/268/327	112	304	12	10	31%	7%	68	-1.0	166/210/224	59	244	8	4	35%	5%	22	-0.8
✕Nick Green 2010 · MLB	31	43→46	47→50	39→45	41	220/270/353	133	276	15	5	26%	5%	75	-0.5	206/254/326	120	255	12	5	24%	5%	63	-1.4	199/244/321	122	242	12	3	23%	4%	55	-1.1
✕Adam Hyzdu 2006 · MLB	34	43→41	48→50	39→45	51	220/300/360	140	282	16	6	27%	10%	88	+0.4	215/288/358	143	271	16	8	26%	9%	82	+0.0	198/274/338	141	242	16	7	25%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Valentino Pascucci 2012 · AAA	33	41→42	51→55	42→45	46	212/286/373	162	288	20	3	32%	9%	86	+0.3	202/289/355	153	296	20	3	36%	10%	83	+0.1	178/276/323	145	258	21	0	37%	11%	70	-0.5
✕Pedro Florimón 2021 · MLB	34	43→53	45	46→55	41	210/274/333	123	314	13	6	36%	8%	72	-0.7	198/263/308	110	312	11	14	37%	8%	61	-1.5	166/236/259	94	266	9	16	38%	8%	38	-2.0
✕Chad Moeller 2008 · MLB	33	40	45→50	41→30	42	204/259/322	118	253	14	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	210/262/314	104	261	9	4	22%	5%	63	-1.4	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Mike Freeman 2021 · MLB	33	49→59	45	43→55	47	236/307/357	121	310	13	8	27%	8%	89	+0.5	216/290/328	112	289	11	8	27%	9%	76	-0.4	185/264/270	85	252	8	6	28%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Jantzen Witte 2024 · AAA	34	42→52	47→45	44→45	42	217/269/353	136	280	15	8	28%	6%	74	-0.5	214/273/354	140	279	16	8	28%	7%	76	-0.4	187/251/323	136	227	18	0	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Brian Burgamy 2016 · AAA	35	44→47	49→50	41→50	48	226/293/372	145	276	17	5	24%	8%	88	+0.4	226/294/342	116	303	11	9	27%	8%	81	-0.1	225/298/331	106	305	9	10	27%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Juan Centeno 2023 · AAA	33	47	46→45	42→40	42	233/273/360	127	270	13	4	20%	4%	77	-0.3	220/263/311	91	300	8	8	28%	5%	61	-1.5	203/243/240	37	305	1	7	32%	5%	34	-1.6
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Chase Lambin 2012 · AAA	33	44→50	41→55	41→45	40	216/267/315	99	286	8	5	27%	5%	64	-1.3	213/264/320	107	276	10	6	26%	5%	64	-1.3	197/241/305	109	239	14	0	24%	4%	52	-1.0

Jeimer Candelario

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps