Brandon Drury

2B Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202431AAALAA25.263/.440/.2630074—.190/.320/.190
202431MLBLAA360.169/.244/.2284136-2.0
202532AAA/ROKLAA228.214/.338/.3233037—.157/.246/.230
202633AAA/ROKKC241.241/.373/.3876256—.182/.274/.276
2027PROJ10% MLB34MLBKC17.206/.289/.3150075-0.0
2028PROJ35MLBKC138.195/.277/.2922065-0.8
Last 3 seasons WAR -2.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
Bat Spd62
Barrel%55
Avg EV48
xwOBA47
Speed20
CompsAdam Hyzdu (age 34) · Bobby Wilson (age 34) · Ryan Roberts (age 34)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 7675vR 69
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .289 / .315
PA17
HR0
K%24
BB%12
BABIP268
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.82728
Tools · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT
xAVG
270.233
POWER
Barrel%
558.9
Avg EV
4889.0
Bat Spd
6272.6
SPEED
Sprint
2026.0
Platoon Splits2024 · 360 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
80
280
—
wRC+
14
40
▶▶R
wOBA
189
227
▶▶R
ISO
027
068
▶▶R
BABIP
236
202
◀L
K%
26.2%
21.4%
▶▶R
BB%
5.0%
8.2%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2015
Service   12.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M———
Totals $1M $-0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201017 ROKGCL Braves — 207192 38713 9504 22 198249292540 94250 244 244 0 — — — — — —
201118 ROKDanville Braves — 278265 922308 6354 30 347371525895 177373 132 390 87 — — — — — —
201219 ARome Braves — 480445 1022236 20747 34 229273333606 103259 154 269 32 — — — — — —
201320 ASouth Bend Silver Hawks — 583526 15951415 47925 11 302365500865 198340 168 378 93 — — — — — —
201421 AAMobile BayBears — 116105 31704 7192 00 295351476827 181321 166 360 109 — — — — — —
201421 A+Visalia Rawhide — 478430 12935119 41765 33 300368519886 219326 169 388 97 — — — — — —
201421 INTLSalt River Rafters — 10996 21413 13210 12 219312375687 156250 1912 310 96 — — — — — —
201522 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 5956 12302 281 00 214254375629 161217 143 279 70 -2 +0 +0 +2 +1 0.1
201522 AAAReno Aces — 276251 832602 21352 02 331387458845 127375 138 375 103 — — — — — —
201522 AAMobile BayBears — 291273 761413 11412 45 278311370681 92312 144 301 68 — — — — — —
201623 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 499461 13031116 311003 11 282331458789 176327 206 346 112 +7 -0 -9 -6 +11 0.4
201623 AAAReno Aces — 1514 2000 110 00 143200143343 154 77 167 -19 — — — — — —
201724 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 480445 11937213 281035 11 267318447765 180320 216 337 105 +3 -0 +7 +2 +10 2.3
201825 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 8677 13401 7202 00 169256260516 91214 238 242 50 -5 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.4
201825 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 235199 581315 32584 31 291400442842 151390 2514 380 101 — — — — — —
201825 AATrenton Thunder — 2519 5001 5100 00 263417421838 158444 4020 368 101 — — — — — —
201926 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 447418 9121115 251131 01 218264380644 163259 256 284 78 -12 -0 +3 +2 +10 0.3
202027 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 4946 7100 290 00 152188174361 22184 184 165 -2 -6 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.5
202128 MLBNew York Mets — 8884 23504 3221 00 274307476783 202328 253 344 124 +3 +0 -1 +1 +2 0.5
202128 AAASyracuse Mets — 236214 551409 19491 00 257321449769 192291 218 338 66 — — — — — —
202229 MLBSan Diego Padres — 568518 13631228 381268 23 263323492815 230293 227 355 129 +19 -1 +1 +2 +12 3.4
202330 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 523485 12730326 251368 02 262309497806 235308 265 349 123 +14 -1 +4 +2 +11 3.1
202431 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 360325 55704 27815 10 169244228471 58210 228 221 36 -27 +0 -2 +1 +8 -2.0
202431 AAASalt Lake Bees — 2519 5000 551 00 263440263703 357 2020 350 74 — — — — — —
202532 AAASalt Lake Bees — 201172 38813 25424 01 221333331665 110276 2112 309 40 — — — — — —
202532 ROKACL Angels — 2720 3200 750 00 150370250620 100200 1926 310 11 — — — — — —
202633 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 212177 40905 33552 00 226354362715 136299 2616 330 49 — — — — — —
202633 ROKACL Royals — 2922 8201 770 20 3645175911.108 227500 2424 485 107 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 31592915 7131709109 18871834 58 245298421719 177286 236 317 100 +2 -2 +3 +8 +68 8.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201017 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 207196 28512 5724 22 143180209390 66202 352 168 0 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 278268 731706 3504 30 272291403694 131304 181 297 87 — — — — — —
201219 A MLERome Braves — 480451 861735 141107 34 191227275502 84230 233 216 32 — — — — — —
201320 A MLESouth Bend Silver Hawks — 583544 13539314 291325 11 248292408700 160297 235 306 93 — — — — — —
201421 AA MLEMobile BayBears — 116107 30704 5232 00 280325458783 178309 204 329 109 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLEVisalia Rawhide — 478445 11229114 26985 33 252300416716 164293 215 311 97 — — — — — —
201522 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 5956 12302 281 00 214254375629 161217 143 272 70 -2 +0 +0 +2 +1 0.1
201522 AAA MLEReno Aces — 276256 762002 16472 02 297343398742 102349 176 321 103 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLEMobile BayBears — 291277 711412 7512 45 256280336615 79295 182 269 68 — — — — — —
201623 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 499463 12728116 291003 11 274321443764 168327 206 334 112 +7 -0 -9 -6 +11 0.4
201623 AAA MLEReno Aces — 1514 2000 110 00 143200143343 138 77 140 -19 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 480446 11634213 271035 11 260310433742 173320 216 324 105 +3 -0 +7 +2 +10 2.3
201825 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 8677 13401 7202 00 169256260516 91214 238 242 50 -5 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.4
201825 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 235211 551214 20704 31 261336384720 123365 309 317 101 — — — — — —
201825 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 2520 5001 4120 00 250375400775 150436 4816 318 101 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 447418 9121115 251131 01 218264380644 163259 256 283 78 -12 -0 +3 +2 +10 0.3
202027 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 4946 7100 290 00 152188174361 22184 184 165 -2 -6 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.5
202128 MLB MLENew York Mets — 8884 23504 3221 00 274307476783 202328 253 352 124 +3 +0 -1 +1 +2 0.5
202128 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 236220 481306 13611 00 218265359624 141262 266 266 66 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 568518 13833227 381268 23 266326494820 228293 227 358 129 +19 -1 +1 +2 +12 3.4
202330 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 523485 12731325 251368 02 262309493802 231308 265 350 123 +14 -1 +4 +2 +11 3.1
202431 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 360325 55704 27815 10 169244228471 58210 228 222 36 -27 +0 -2 +1 +8 -2.0
202431 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 2521 4000 361 00 190320190510 307 2412 278 74 — — — — — —
202532 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 201180 30612 17514 01 167254244498 78221 258 227 40 — — — — — —
202532 ROK MLEACL Angels — 2724 2100 370 00 83185125310 42142 2611 185 11 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 212189 33703 21662 00 175264259523 85246 3110 241 49 — — — — — —
202633 ROK MLEACL Royals — 2925 6101 4100 20 240345400745 160365 3414 327 107 — — — — — —
201017 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 207196 28512 5724 22 143180209390 66211 352 168 0 — — — — — —
201017 ROK RAWGCL Braves — 207192 38713 9504 22 198249292540 94250 244 244 0 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 278268 731706 3504 30 272291403694 131312 181 297 87 — — — — — —
201118 ROK RAWDanville Braves — 278265 922308 6354 30 347371525895 177373 132 390 87 — — — — — —
201219 A MLERome Braves — 480451 861735 141107 34 191227275502 84238 233 216 32 — — — — — —
201219 A RAWRome Braves — 480445 1022236 20747 34 229273333606 103259 154 269 32 — — — — — —
201320 A MLESouth Bend Silver Hawks — 583544 13539314 291325 11 248292408700 160300 235 306 93 — — — — — —
201320 A RAWSouth Bend Silver Hawks — 583526 15951415 47925 11 302365500865 198340 168 378 93 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLE3 teams — 703656 16943121 361447 45 258303422726 165299 205 315 99 — — — — — —
201421 A+ RAW3 teams — 703631 18146226 611167 45 287356490846 203314 179 371 99 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLE3 teams — 626589 1593716 251065 47 270305367672 97316 174 292 84 — — — — — —
201522 AA RAW3 teams — 626580 1714317 34845 47 295339409748 114331 135 331 84 — — — — — —
201623 MLB MLE2 teams — 514477 12828116 301013 11 268316432748 164308 206 329 109 +5 -0 -9 -6 +11 0.2
201623 MLB RAW2 teams — 514475 13231116 321013 11 278327448776 171320 206 341 109 +5 -0 -9 -6 +11 0.2
201724 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 480446 11634213 271035 11 260310433742 173310 216 324 105 +3 -0 +7 +2 +10 2.3
201724 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 480445 11937213 281035 11 267318447765 180320 216 337 105 +3 -0 +7 +2 +10 2.3
201825 AAA MLE3 teams — 346308 731616 311026 31 237319354673 117333 299 298 88 — — — — — —
201825 AAA RAW3 teams — 346295 761717 44886 31 258365393758 136343 2513 345 88 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 447418 9121115 251131 01 218264380644 163259 256 283 78 -12 -0 +3 +2 +10 0.3
201926 MLB RAWToronto Blue Jays — 447418 9121115 251131 01 218264380644 163259 256 284 78 -12 -0 +3 +2 +10 0.3
202027 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 4946 7100 290 00 152188174361 22184 184 165 -2 -6 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.5
202027 MLB RAWToronto Blue Jays — 4946 7100 290 00 152188174361 22184 184 165 -2 -6 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.5
202128 AAA MLE2 teams — 324304 7118010 16832 00 234276391668 158286 265 289 82 — — — — — —
202128 AAA RAW2 teams — 324298 7819013 22712 00 262317456773 195301 227 339 82 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 568518 13833227 381268 23 266326494820 228301 227 358 129 +19 -1 +1 +2 +12 3.4
202229 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 568518 13631228 381268 23 263323492815 230293 227 355 129 +19 -1 +1 +2 +12 3.4
202330 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 523485 12731325 251368 02 262309493802 231310 265 350 123 +14 -1 +4 +2 +11 3.1
202330 MLB RAWLos Angeles Angels — 523485 12730326 251368 02 262309497806 235308 265 349 123 +14 -1 +4 +2 +11 3.1
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 385346 59704 30876 10 171249225474 55213 238 225 39 -28 +0 -2 +1 +8 -2.0
202431 MLB RAW2 teams — 385344 60704 32866 10 174257230486 55218 228 230 39 -28 +0 -2 +1 +8 -2.0
202532 AAA MLE2 teams — 228204 33812 20594 01 162250240490 78217 269 222 36 — — — — — —
202532 AAA RAW2 teams — 228192 411013 32474 01 214338323661 109268 2114 309 36 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 241215 39804 24762 20 181270274544 93259 3210 251 56 — — — — — —
202633 AAA RAW2 teams — 241199 481106 40622 20 241373387760 146321 2617 349 56 — — — — — —
201017 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 207196 28512 5724 22 143180209390 66202 352 168 0 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 278269 731706 3504 30 271291401692 130304 181 297 87 — — — — — —
201219 A MLERome Braves — 480456 861735 141107 34 189227272499 83230 233 216 32 — — — — — —
201320 A MLESouth Bend Silver Hawks — 583544 13539314 291325 11 248292408700 160297 235 306 93 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLE3 teams — 703654 16943121 361447 45 258303424727 165296 205 315 99 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLE3 teams — 626591 1593716 251065 47 269305365671 96311 174 292 84 — — — — — —
201623 MLB MLE2 teams — 514476 12828116 301013 11 269316433748 164321 206 329 109 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 480445 11634213 271035 11 261310434743 173320 216 324 105 — — — — — —
201825 AAA MLE3 teams — 346306 731616 311026 31 239319356675 118333 299 298 88 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 447418 9121115 251131 01 218264380644 163259 256 283 78 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 4947 7100 290 00 149188170358 21184 184 165 -2 — — — — — —
202128 AAA MLE2 teams — 324303 7118010 16832 00 234276393669 158280 265 289 82 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 568517 13833227 381268 23 267326495821 228293 227 358 129 — — — — — —
202330 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 523485 12731325 251368 02 262309493802 231308 265 350 123 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 385346 59704 30876 10 171249225474 55216 238 225 39 — — — — — —
202532 AAA MLE2 teams — 228202 33812 20594 01 163250243493 79212 269 222 36 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 241213 39804 24762 20 183270277547 94260 3210 251 56 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 385346 59704 30876 10 171249225474 55216 238 225 39 — — — — — —
202532 AAA MLE2 teams — 228202 33812 20594 01 163250243493 79212 269 222 36 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 241213 39804 24762 20 183270277547 94260 3210 251 56 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202734 MLB MLEKC 10% 280249 521015 26733 21 209291322614 113270 269 279 75 -8 +0 +0 +1 +6 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202734 MLB CTXKC 10% 1715 3100 240 00 206289315604 109268 2412 276 75 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202835 MLB MLEKC 100% 138123 24502 12372 00 198279299578 101259 279 265 65 -6 +0 -6 +0 +3 -0.8
202835 MLB CTXKC 100% 138123 24502 12372 00 195277292569 97257 279 261 65 -6 +0 -6 +0 +3 -0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 32973038 7371759111 20075536 58 243297416713 173285 236 314 84 -4 -2 -3 +8 +71 7.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650599 14635222 391497 12 244298419717 175286 236 314 84 -1 -0 -1 +2 +14 1.4
Career— MLE — 72946748 158837421181 408169181 2829 235287377664 142286 236 292 84 -9 -2 -3 +9 +75 7.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650601 14133216 361517 23 235285376661 141285 236 292 84 -2 -0 -1 +2 +14 1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 212 PAwOBA .321 → .241 (−79)K% 25.9% → 31.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.94%÷1.000×1.200——31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.09%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9409.79%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.940—×0.9400.83%
Singles /BIP21.31%÷1.000×0.930×0.983×0.94018.31%
Doubles /BIP7.38%÷1.000×0.830×0.983×0.9405.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.983×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP4.10%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9402.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .321 → .241; ISO .136 → .096; BABIP .299 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 29 PAwOBA .465 → .327 (−139)K% 24.1% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.14%÷1.000×1.440——34.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.69%÷1.000×0.620—×0.94012.06%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94025.69%
Doubles /BIP13.33%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9409.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9404.89%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (14.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .465 → .327; ISO .227 → .166; BABIP .500 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 201 PAwOBA .301 → .227 (−74)K% 20.9% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.90%÷0.978×1.200——25.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.44%÷0.964×0.690—×0.9428.39%
HBP% /PA1.99%—×0.940—×0.9421.76%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.046×0.930×0.980×0.94216.42%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷1.005×0.830×0.980×0.9424.69%
Triples /BIP0.77%÷1.079×0.970×0.980×0.9420.64%
Home runs /BIP2.31%÷0.989×0.700—×0.9421.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .301 → .227; ISO .110 → .079; BABIP .276 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 27 PAwOBA .289 → .185 (−104)K% 18.5% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.52%÷0.969×1.440——27.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.22%÷1.082×0.620—×0.94011.97%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP6.67%÷1.015×0.820—×0.9405.06%
Doubles /BIP13.33%÷0.992×0.720—×0.9409.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.134×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.873×0.780—×0.9400.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (13.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .289 → .185; ISO .100 → .074; BABIP .200 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 25 PAwOBA .343 → .278 (−65)K% 20.0% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.971×1.200——24.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷0.944×0.690—×0.95213.92%
HBP% /PA4.00%—×0.940—×0.9523.58%
Singles /BIP35.71%÷1.030×0.930—×0.95230.69%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.141×0.830—×0.9520.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.886×0.700—×0.9520.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .343 → .278; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .357 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 236 PAwOBA .331 → .266 (−65)K% 20.8% → 25.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.76%÷0.966×1.200——25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.05%÷1.006×0.690—×0.9825.42%
HBP% /PA0.42%—×0.940—×0.9820.39%
Singles /BIP19.39%÷1.032×0.930×1.031×0.98217.68%
Doubles /BIP8.48%÷0.897×0.830×1.031×0.9827.95%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.986×0.920×1.031×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP5.45%÷1.039×0.700—×0.9823.61%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .331 → .266; ISO .192 → .142; BABIP .291 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 235 PAwOBA .368 → .317 (−50)K% 24.7% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.68%÷1.002×1.200——29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.77%÷1.034×0.690—×1.0188.67%
HBP% /PA1.70%—×0.940—×1.0181.63%
Singles /BIP27.66%÷1.032×0.930×1.050×1.01826.65%
Doubles /BIP9.22%÷1.004×0.830×1.050×1.0188.15%
Triples /BIP0.71%÷1.130×0.970×1.050×1.0180.65%
Home runs /BIP3.55%÷1.046×0.840—×1.0182.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .368 → .317; ISO .151 → .129; BABIP .390 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATrenton Thunder · 25 PAwOBA .374 → .318 (−56)K% 40.0% → 48.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.00%÷1.002×1.220——48.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷0.972×0.700—×0.98814.23%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP44.44%÷0.954×0.970—×0.98844.65%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.042×0.860—×0.9880.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.944×0.950—×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷1.034×0.780—×0.9888.28%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .374 → .318; ISO .158 → .121; BABIP .444 → .436. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).