Brian O'Keefe

C Tacoma Rainiers

Age 34 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	AAAKC	280	.281/.370/.554	18	0	79	—	.213/.275/.382
2025	32	AAAKC	162	.158/.236/.274	4	2	-3	—	.120/.180/.207
2026	33	AAASEA	150	.241/.307/.409	4	1	38	—	.183/.227/.303
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBSEA	13	.209/.266/.333	0	0	69	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSEA	4	.201/.257/.316	0	0	62	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%46

Z-Con%37

Whiff%36

K%33

BB%32

Max EV28

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDustin Garneau (age 33) · Carlos M. Rodriguez (age 34) · Mike Rivera (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .266 / .333

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP265

ISO83

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT25

xAVG

100.111

POWER45

Avg EV

1078.6

Bat Spd

4070.2

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	143	125	35	8	0	5	13	31	3	0	0	280	362	464	826	184	330	22	9	363	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	32	24	4	2	0	0	8	5	0	0	0	167	375	250	625	83	211	16	25	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	420	357	92	25	2	13	52	78	7	1	1	258	363	448	811	190	293	19	12	359	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	411	373	97	20	0	15	34	89	1	7	3	260	324	434	758	174	301	22	8	334	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	288	243	59	23	0	6	40	49	4	0	0	243	359	412	770	169	280	17	14	347	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	346	301	69	9	0	13	37	71	4	1	1	229	322	389	710	159	255	21	11	318	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	248	217	55	7	0	13	31	72	0	1	1	253	347	465	812	212	318	29	12	360	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	208	189	54	7	1	11	17	59	2	3	1	286	351	508	859	222	361	28	8	377	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	316	80	19	2	13	32	80	4	1	1	253	330	449	779	196	300	23	9	345	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	21	19	2	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	105	190	211	401	105	167	33	10	189	15	-2	+0	-0	+8	+0	0.6
2023	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	403	353	84	25	0	23	46	99	2	2	3	238	329	504	833	266	262	25	11	363	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	242	68	12	0	18	34	55	0	0	1	281	370	554	923	273	289	20	12	396	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	146	23	5	0	4	15	43	0	2	0	158	236	274	510	116	192	27	9	234	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	137	33	11	0	4	13	39	0	1	0	241	307	409	715	168	309	26	9	319	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	21	19	2	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	105	190	211	401	105	167	33	10	189	14	-2	+0	-0	+8	+0	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	143	130	30	6	0	4	8	42	3	0	0	231	291	369	660	138	305	29	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	32	26	4	2	0	0	6	7	0	0	0	154	312	231	543	77	199	22	19	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	420	371	78	20	2	9	38	102	7	1	1	210	296	348	643	137	256	24	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	411	383	79	16	0	12	24	116	1	7	3	206	255	342	597	136	255	28	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	288	256	55	23	0	6	27	67	4	0	0	215	300	375	675	160	263	23	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	346	311	57	7	0	9	27	88	4	1	1	183	257	293	550	109	216	25	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	248	228	48	6	0	9	20	87	0	1	1	211	274	355	629	145	291	35	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	208	196	46	6	1	9	10	71	2	3	1	235	279	413	692	179	312	34	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	327	69	18	2	8	21	94	4	1	1	211	267	352	619	141	271	27	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	21	19	2	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	105	190	211	401	105	167	33	10	191	15	-2	+0	-0	+8	+0	0.6
2023	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	403	369	67	21	0	14	30	116	2	2	3	182	247	352	599	171	220	29	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	254	54	10	0	11	22	67	0	0	1	213	275	382	657	169	234	24	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	150	18	4	0	3	11	51	0	2	0	120	180	207	387	87	148	31	7	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	142	26	8	0	3	8	47	0	1	0	183	227	303	529	120	244	31	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	143	130	30	6	0	4	8	42	3	0	0	231	291	369	660	138	302	29	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	143	125	35	8	0	5	13	31	3	0	0	280	362	464	826	184	330	22	9	363	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	452	397	81	22	2	9	44	110	7	1	1	204	295	338	632	134	255	24	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	452	381	96	27	2	13	60	83	7	1	1	252	364	436	800	184	287	18	13	356	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	411	383	79	16	0	12	24	116	1	7	3	206	255	342	597	136	260	28	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	411	373	97	20	0	15	34	89	1	7	3	260	324	434	758	174	301	22	8	334	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	288	256	55	23	0	6	27	67	4	0	0	215	300	375	675	160	266	23	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	288	243	59	23	0	6	40	49	4	0	0	243	359	412	770	169	280	17	14	347	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	346	311	57	7	0	9	27	88	4	1	1	183	257	293	550	109	221	25	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	346	301	69	9	0	13	37	71	4	1	1	229	322	389	710	159	255	21	11	318	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	424	93	11	1	18	30	158	2	4	2	219	274	377	651	158	302	35	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	456	406	109	14	1	24	48	131	2	4	2	268	349	485	834	217	339	29	11	368	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	327	69	18	2	8	21	94	4	1	1	211	267	352	619	141	271	27	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	316	80	19	2	13	32	80	4	1	1	253	330	449	779	196	300	23	9	345	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	388	69	23	0	14	32	123	2	2	3	178	244	345	589	168	217	29	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	424	372	86	27	0	23	48	106	2	2	3	231	322	489	812	258	257	25	11	354	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	254	54	10	0	11	22	67	0	0	1	213	275	382	657	169	239	24	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	242	68	12	0	18	34	55	0	0	1	281	370	554	923	273	289	20	12	396	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	150	18	4	0	3	11	51	0	2	0	120	180	207	387	87	156	31	7	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	146	23	5	0	4	15	43	0	2	0	158	236	274	510	116	192	27	9	234	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	142	26	8	0	3	8	47	0	1	0	183	227	303	529	120	250	31	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	137	33	11	0	4	13	39	0	1	0	241	307	409	715	168	309	26	9	319	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	143	131	30	6	0	4	8	42	3	0	0	229	291	366	657	137	305	29	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	452	398	81	22	2	9	44	110	7	1	1	204	295	337	631	133	252	24	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	411	383	79	16	0	12	24	116	1	7	3	206	255	342	597	136	255	28	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	288	255	55	23	0	6	27	67	4	0	0	216	300	376	676	161	263	23	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	346	312	57	7	0	9	27	88	4	1	1	183	257	292	549	109	216	25	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	421	93	11	1	18	30	158	2	4	2	221	274	380	654	159	301	35	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	324	69	18	2	8	21	94	4	1	1	213	267	355	622	142	271	27	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	387	69	23	0	14	32	123	2	2	3	178	244	346	590	168	217	29	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	256	54	10	0	11	22	67	0	0	1	211	275	379	654	168	234	24	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	150	18	4	0	3	11	51	0	2	0	120	180	207	387	87	148	31	7	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	141	26	8	0	3	8	47	0	1	0	184	227	305	532	121	244	31	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	280	256	54	10	0	11	22	67	0	0	1	211	275	379	654	168	234	24	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	162	150	18	4	0	3	11	51	0	2	0	120	180	207	387	87	148	31	7	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	150	141	26	8	0	3	8	47	0	1	0	184	227	305	532	121	244	31	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SEA	10%	206	189	41	9	1	5	14	54	1	3	1	211	268	338	606	127	267	26	7	271	69	-8	+0	-0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	13	12	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	209	266	333	599	124	265	23	8	268	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SEA	6%	80	75	15	3	0	2	5	21	0	0	0	203	259	320	579	117	260	26	6	260	62	-4	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	SEA	6%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	201	257	316	573	114	258	25	0	257	62	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	25	23	2	2	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	87	160	174	334	87	133	32	8	200	65	-2	+0	-1	+8	+1	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	52	52	0	0	52	208	0	0	0	87	160	174	334	87	133	32	8	200	65	-61	+0	-18	+199	+14	13.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3672	3355	670	156	5	102	268	1018	27	21	12	200	264	340	605	141	252	28	7	264	65	-10	+0	-6	+11	+5	0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	119	28	1	18	47	180	5	4	2	200	265	342	606	141	253	28	7	264	65	-30	+1	-17	+32	+14	0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 150 PAwOBA .310 → .224 (−86)K% 26.0% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.37%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.955	×0.942	15.37%
Doubles /BIP	11.22%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.955	×0.942	8.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.955	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .310 → .224; ISO .168 → .114; BABIP .309 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 162 PAwOBA .228 → .164 (−64)K% 26.5% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.54%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	31.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.26%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.50%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.59%	÷1.108	×0.930	×0.986	×0.952	10.70%
Doubles /BIP	4.85%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.986	×0.952	3.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.986	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.88%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .228 → .164; ISO .116 → .079; BABIP .192 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 280 PAwOBA .391 → .285 (−106)K% 19.6% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.64%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.14%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.32%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.962	×0.962	17.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.42%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.962	×0.962	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.935	×0.970	×0.962	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.63%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.962	5.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .391 → .285; ISO .273 → .179; BABIP .289 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 403 PAwOBA .353 → .260 (−93)K% 24.6% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.57%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	28.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.40%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.45%
Singles /BIP	14.17%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.982	×0.972	12.73%
Doubles /BIP	9.84%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.982	×0.972	8.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.982	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.06%	÷1.157	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .353 → .260; ISO .266 → .176; BABIP .262 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 352 PAwOBA .336 → .268 (−68)K% 22.7% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	26.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.88%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.05%
Singles /BIP	19.49%	÷1.013	×0.930	×0.996	×0.982	17.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷0.839	×0.830	×0.996	×0.982	7.79%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.996	×0.982	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	5.51%	÷1.144	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .336 → .268; ISO .196 → .144; BABIP .300 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 248 PAwOBA .351 → .274 (−77)K% 29.0% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.03%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	35.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.045	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷0.952	×0.930	×0.994	×0.992	23.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.83%	÷0.989	×0.830	×0.994	×0.992	3.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.920	×0.994	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.97%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.42%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .351 → .274; ISO .212 → .151; BABIP .318 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 208 PAwOBA .367 → .291 (−76)K% 28.4% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.37%	÷1.013	×1.220	—	—	34.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.17%	÷1.144	×0.690	—	×0.968	4.77%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	0.79%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷0.999	×0.940	×0.973	×0.968	23.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.38%	÷0.975	×0.870	×0.973	×0.968	4.52%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.973	×0.968	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	8.46%	÷0.892	×0.780	—	×0.968	7.16%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 103, BB 129 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .367 → .291; ISO .222 → .180; BABIP .361 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 346 PAwOBA .312 → .244 (−68)K% 20.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.52%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	25.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.69%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.988	7.67%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.99%
Singles /BIP	20.43%	÷0.974	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	18.11%
Doubles /BIP	3.91%	÷1.070	×0.840	×0.950	×0.988	2.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.108	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.65%	÷1.108	×0.800	—	×0.988	4.03%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .312 → .244; ISO .159 → .113; BABIP .255 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brian O'Keefe (OGILVIE)	34	25	45	45	45	210/265/335	126	267	3	2	26%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2016 · AAA	34	42	43→50	43→40	41	208/268/316	107	284	12	4	30%	6%	65	-1.2	214/260/330	116	305	12	4	32%	5%	65	-1.2	199/244/310	111	296	12	0	36%	5%	52	-1.3
✕Mike Rivera 2012 · MLB	35	39	43→55	44→45	43	195/264/303	108	264	10	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/317	106	285	11	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	194/245/256	62	262	7	0	28%	4%	40	-0.8
✕Chad Moeller 2009 · MLB	34	42	42→50	43→30	42	209/264/313	104	264	10	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	212/264/319	107	260	8	5	21%	5%	64	-1.3	198/245/293	96	240	5	0	19%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	43	43→45	46→40	41	215/264/322	107	277	12	6	27%	6%	65	-1.2	208/256/297	89	296	8	5	31%	5%	55	-1.9	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2018 · MLB	34	39→43	42→45	47→40	43	197/255/301	104	246	10	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	189/255/288	99	253	9	4	27%	6%	55	-2.0	160/230/239	79	217	6	0	28%	6%	33	-1.2
✕Joe Hudson 2024 · AAA	33	38	47→45	50→40	46	195/280/323	127	279	16	8	34%	9%	72	-0.7	191/275/316	125	312	15	11	40%	9%	70	-0.9	141/259/249	108	227	14	16	41%	11%	47	-0.5
✕Cody Ransom 2010 · MLB	34	39	51→55	49→50	45	208/273/373	166	259	19	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	215/278/388	173	280	21	8	30%	7%	86	+0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Mike DiFelice 2003 · MLB	34	44	45→50	45→30	45	220/275/345	125	265	12	4	22%	6%	74	-0.5	225/284/362	137	264	13	5	20%	6%	82	-0.0	212/275/335	123	257	12	2	22%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Jonathan Aceves 2013 · AAA	35	43	47→50	42→30	42	220/269/354	135	276	15	6	26%	6%	75	-0.5	211/264/333	122	256	14	4	23%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Dusty Wathan 2007 · AAA	33	44	46→45	45→40	44	222/285/344	123	259	15	5	21%	5%	79	-0.2	229/290/320	91	278	7	8	19%	5%	74	-0.5	237/297/291	53	290	0	6	17%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Anthony Bemboom 2023 · MLB	33	39	44→40	48→45	46	198/268/313	115	251	12	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	207/274/311	104	273	9	5	26%	8%	67	-1.1	195/267/283	89	260	6	1	26%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Alberto Castillo 2004 · MLB	34	43	46→30	48→30	43	216/269/345	128	267	13	8	24%	6%	72	-0.7	234/310/345	111	274	9	6	17%	10%	87	+0.4	226/301/297	71	274	2	2	17%	10%	72	-0.2
✕Luke Carlin 2015 · AAA	34	41	41→45	44→45	50	202/272/299	97	245	9	6	22%	8%	63	-1.3	192/277/290	98	244	7	8	23%	9%	63	-1.3	122/237/178	56	163	0	3	22%	11%	24	-1.4
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2015 · MLB	32	35	45→40	47→40	39	188/244/299	111	241	14	4	29%	5%	53	-2.1	208/264/317	109	264	12	6	25%	6%	64	-1.3	195/249/267	72	243	7	0	22%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Nick Green 2013 · MLB	34	42→46	46→50	42→45	41	215/261/349	134	257	14	5	23%	4%	70	-0.8	201/249/317	116	260	13	6	27%	5%	59	-1.7	161/207/246	84	213	10	1	29%	4%	24	-2.9
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2015 · MLB	33	43	42→45	48→50	39	213/255/316	103	277	10	4	26%	5%	60	-1.6	212/253/316	104	274	10	5	26%	4%	59	-1.6	199/236/322	123	255	15	0	28%	3%	52	-1.1
✕Matt Treanor 2011 · MLB	35	44	42→40	42→40	51	217/292/318	101	250	11	5	18%	8%	75	-0.5	213/311/316	103	260	10	7	21%	11%	82	+0.0	192/310/272	79	243	7	5	22%	12%	71	-0.3
✕Mike Coolbaugh 2006 · AAA	34	41→39	52→55	53→50	41	218/266/379	160	262	21	10	26%	6%	79	-0.2	211/277/349	138	265	16	9	26%	7%	77	-0.3	171/258/278	106	213	13	4	26%	9%	52	-1.0