Trent Grisham

CF New York Yankees

Age 30 L/L 5'10" / 221 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 7.349 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBNYY	209	.190/.291/.385	9	1	83	0.3
2025	28	MLBNYY	581	.235/.348/.464	34	3	125	2.8
2026	29	MLBNYY	484	.211/.310/.395	18	9	96	1.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBNYY	371	.242/.344/.460	18	5	122	1.8
2028PROJ	31	MLBNYY	502	.238/.339/.450	23	4	118	1.9
2029PROJ	32	MLBNYY	489	.232/.332/.435	22	0	112	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.349First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA83

Barrel%76

Avg EV75

Speed36

Bat Spd34

CompsGeorge Kottaras (age 30) · Pedro Álvarez (age 30) · Didi Gregorius (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 98122vR 130

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .344 / .460

PA371

HR18

SB5

K%20

BB%13

BABIP260

ISO216

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

340.238

POWER60

Barrel%

7612.1

Avg EV

7590.8

Bat Spd

3469.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 882 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

221

661

—

wRC+

125

▶▶R

wOBA

290

353

▶▶R

ISO

158

233

▶▶R

BABIP

208

243

▶R

26.2%

23.1%

▶R

BB%

11.8%

14.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.349 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.7	$14M	+$0.0M
Totals		$14M		$14M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Helena Brewers	—	252	207	64	7	6	2	39	44	3	25	8	309	426	430	856	121	383	17	15	383	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	262	221	51	15	2	2	37	68	2	5	10	231	346	344	690	113	325	26	14	316	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Carolina Mudcats	—	569	457	102	21	6	8	98	141	3	38	5	223	364	348	712	125	299	25	17	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	405	335	78	10	2	7	63	87	2	11	3	233	357	337	695	104	292	21	16	320	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	74	60	9	0	1	1	13	25	0	0	0	150	301	233	535	83	235	34	18	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	183	156	36	6	2	6	20	48	4	1	0	231	333	410	744	179	286	26	11	329	109	+2	+0	+3	+2	+4	1.1
2019	22	AAA	San Antonio Missions	—	158	134	51	8	3	13	23	22	0	6	1	381	471	776	1.247	396	384	14	15	523	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	283	236	60	14	3	13	44	50	1	6	4	254	374	504	878	250	269	18	16	383	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	252	215	54	8	3	10	31	64	3	10	1	251	352	456	808	205	310	25	12	356	128	+8	+2	+6	+1	+5	2.3
2021	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	527	462	112	28	3	15	54	119	6	13	5	242	330	413	743	171	292	23	10	330	111	+7	+1	+3	+2	+11	2.4
2022	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	524	451	83	16	2	17	57	150	7	7	1	184	285	341	627	157	231	29	11	281	77	-14	+1	+8	+2	+11	0.8
2023	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	555	469	93	31	1	13	75	154	5	15	3	198	315	352	666	154	264	28	14	303	94	-4	+2	+4	+2	+12	1.7
2024	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	209	179	34	8	0	9	22	57	4	1	1	190	291	385	677	196	217	27	11	300	83	-4	-0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
2025	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	581	494	116	9	1	34	82	137	4	3	2	235	348	464	812	229	253	24	14	360	125	+17	-0	-4	+2	+13	2.8
2026	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	484	418	88	19	2	18	61	89	0	9	3	211	310	395	705	184	222	18	13	314	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3315	2844	616	125	14	122	402	818	33	59	16	217	320	399	719	182	257	25	12	321	103	+12	+5	+20	+13	+72	12.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	—	252	223	55	5	5	2	23	63	3	25	8	247	325	341	666	94	323	25	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	262	231	44	13	2	1	27	90	2	5	10	190	281	277	558	87	303	34	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	569	491	87	16	5	7	64	203	3	38	5	177	276	273	549	96	266	36	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	405	352	73	10	2	5	46	114	2	11	3	207	302	290	592	82	282	28	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	183	156	36	6	2	6	20	48	4	1	0	231	333	410	744	179	286	26	11	330	109	+2	+0	+3	+2	+4	1.1
2019	22	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	158	142	45	6	3	11	15	29	0	6	1	317	382	634	1.016	317	328	18	9	424	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	283	252	53	12	2	11	28	63	1	6	4	210	292	405	697	194	231	22	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	252	216	55	9	3	10	31	64	3	10	1	255	356	463	819	208	310	25	12	358	128	+8	+2	+6	+1	+5	2.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	527	464	114	30	3	15	52	119	6	13	5	246	330	420	750	175	292	23	10	332	111	+7	+1	+3	+2	+11	2.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	524	452	84	17	2	17	56	150	7	7	1	186	285	345	631	159	231	29	11	282	77	-14	+1	+8	+2	+11	0.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	555	470	95	33	1	13	75	154	5	15	3	202	318	360	678	157	264	28	14	307	94	-4	+2	+4	+2	+12	1.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	209	181	33	8	0	8	21	57	4	1	1	182	282	359	641	177	217	27	10	291	83	-4	-0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	581	494	114	9	1	32	82	137	4	3	2	231	345	447	792	217	253	24	14	353	125	+17	-0	-4	+2	+13	2.8
2026	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	484	419	87	19	2	17	61	89	0	9	3	208	308	384	693	177	222	18	13	310	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
2015	18	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	—	252	223	55	5	5	2	23	63	3	25	8	247	325	341	666	94	333	25	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Helena Brewers	—	252	207	64	7	6	2	39	44	3	25	8	309	426	430	856	121	383	17	15	383	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	262	231	44	13	2	1	27	90	2	5	10	190	281	277	558	87	307	34	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	262	221	51	15	2	2	37	68	2	5	10	231	346	344	690	113	325	26	14	316	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	569	491	87	16	5	7	64	203	3	38	5	177	276	273	549	96	279	36	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	569	457	102	21	6	8	98	141	3	38	5	223	364	348	712	125	299	25	17	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	416	86	12	2	6	55	135	2	11	3	207	302	288	591	82	289	28	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	479	395	87	10	3	8	76	112	2	11	3	220	349	322	670	101	285	23	16	310	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	624	550	134	24	7	28	63	139	5	13	5	244	327	465	792	222	273	22	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	624	526	147	28	8	32	87	120	5	13	5	279	387	546	932	266	303	19	14	403	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	252	216	55	9	3	10	31	64	3	10	1	255	356	463	819	208	315	25	12	358	128	+8	+2	+6	+1	+5	2.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	252	215	54	8	3	10	31	64	3	10	1	251	352	456	808	205	310	25	12	356	128	+8	+2	+6	+1	+5	2.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	527	464	114	30	3	15	52	119	6	13	5	246	330	420	750	175	296	23	10	332	111	+7	+1	+3	+2	+11	2.4
2021	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	527	462	112	28	3	15	54	119	6	13	5	242	330	413	743	171	292	23	10	330	111	+7	+1	+3	+2	+11	2.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	524	452	84	17	2	17	56	150	7	7	1	186	285	345	631	159	233	29	11	282	77	-14	+1	+8	+2	+11	0.8
2022	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	524	451	83	16	2	17	57	150	7	7	1	184	285	341	627	157	231	29	11	281	77	-14	+1	+8	+2	+11	0.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	555	470	95	33	1	13	75	154	5	15	3	202	318	360	678	157	270	28	14	307	94	-4	+2	+4	+2	+12	1.7
2023	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	555	469	93	31	1	13	75	154	5	15	3	198	315	352	666	154	264	28	14	303	94	-4	+2	+4	+2	+12	1.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	209	181	33	8	0	8	21	57	4	1	1	182	282	359	641	177	212	27	10	291	83	-4	-0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	209	179	34	8	0	9	22	57	4	1	1	190	291	385	677	196	217	27	11	300	83	-4	-0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	581	494	114	9	1	32	82	137	4	3	2	231	345	447	792	217	252	24	14	353	125	+17	-0	-4	+2	+13	2.8
2025	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	581	494	116	9	1	34	82	137	4	3	2	235	348	464	812	229	253	24	14	360	125	+17	-0	-4	+2	+13	2.8
2026	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	484	419	87	19	2	17	61	89	0	9	3	208	308	384	693	177	221	18	13	310	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	484	418	88	19	2	18	61	89	0	9	3	211	310	395	705	184	222	18	13	314	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.0
2015	18	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	—	252	224	55	5	5	2	23	63	3	25	8	246	325	339	665	94	323	25	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	262	231	44	13	2	1	27	90	2	5	10	190	281	277	558	87	303	34	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	569	497	87	16	5	7	64	203	3	38	5	175	276	270	546	95	266	36	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	419	86	12	2	6	55	135	2	11	3	205	302	286	589	81	282	28	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	624	551	134	24	7	28	63	139	5	13	5	243	327	465	791	221	272	22	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	252	216	55	9	3	10	31	64	3	10	1	255	356	463	819	208	310	25	12	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	527	464	114	30	3	15	52	119	6	13	5	246	330	420	750	175	292	23	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	524	456	84	17	2	17	56	150	7	7	1	184	285	342	628	158	231	29	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	555	470	95	33	1	13	75	154	5	15	3	202	318	360	678	157	264	28	14	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	209	182	33	8	0	8	21	57	4	1	1	181	282	357	639	176	217	27	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	581	490	114	9	1	32	82	137	4	3	2	233	345	451	796	218	253	24	14	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	484	420	87	19	2	17	61	89	0	9	3	207	308	383	692	176	222	18	13	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	209	182	33	8	0	8	21	57	4	1	1	181	282	357	639	176	217	27	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	581	490	114	9	1	32	82	137	4	3	2	233	345	451	796	218	253	24	14	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	484	420	87	19	2	17	61	89	0	9	3	207	308	383	692	176	222	18	13	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	460	395	95	17	2	21	60	93	2	7	2	239	341	447	788	208	259	20	13	348	122	+12	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	371	319	77	13	1	18	48	75	1	5	2	242	344	460	804	218	260	20	13	354	122	+10	+0	-1	+1	+8	1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	502	432	102	18	2	22	64	103	1	4	2	235	336	437	773	202	256	21	13	342	118	+11	+0	-4	+2	+11	1.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	489	423	98	17	2	21	62	103	1	0	1	229	330	422	752	194	251	21	13	334	112	+7	-0	-5	+2	+11	1.4
2030	33	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	397	343	76	13	1	16	50	86	1	0	1	221	321	405	726	183	245	22	13	324	105	+2	-0	-5	+1	+9	0.7
2031	34	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	305	264	57	9	1	12	38	68	0	0	0	212	311	383	694	171	238	22	12	311	97	-1	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	502	432	103	18	2	23	64	103	1	4	2	238	339	450	788	212	256	21	13	348	118	+11	+0	-4	+2	+11	1.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	489	423	99	17	2	22	62	103	1	0	1	232	332	435	767	203	252	21	13	339	112	+7	-0	-5	+2	+11	1.4
2030	33	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	397	343	77	13	1	17	50	86	1	0	1	224	324	416	740	192	246	22	13	329	105	+2	-0	-5	+1	+9	0.7
2031	34	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	305	264	57	9	1	12	38	68	0	0	0	215	313	394	708	180	238	22	12	316	97	-1	+0	-6	+1	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5008	4306	952	182	20	196	616	1178	36	63	20	221	323	409	732	188	255	24	12	326	98	+31	+5	-0	+19	+109	16.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	559	124	24	3	25	80	153	5	8	3	222	325	410	734	188	257	24	12	326	98	+4	+1	-0	+3	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7382	6388	1398	266	40	244	872	1835	48	159	53	219	317	388	705	169	265	25	12	313	98	+41	+5	-1	+21	+117	18.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	123	23	4	21	77	162	4	14	5	219	317	386	703	167	266	25	12	313	98	+5	+1	-0	+3	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 283 PAwOBA .372 → .306 (−66)K% 17.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.67%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	22.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.13%	÷1.006	×0.680	—	×1.027	9.81%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.30%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷0.984	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	14.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.092	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.124	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	1.23%
Home runs /BIP	6.99%	÷1.018	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.64%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .372 → .306; ISO .250 → .207; BABIP .269 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 158 PAwOBA .507 → .424 (−84)K% 13.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.92%	÷0.979	×1.290	—	—	18.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.92%	÷1.055	×0.710	—	×1.050	9.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.11%	÷0.995	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	21.76%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	5.52%
Triples /BIP	2.68%	÷0.930	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	2.33%
Home runs /BIP	11.61%	÷0.977	×0.780	—	×1.050	9.73%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .507 → .424; ISO .396 → .333; BABIP .384 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 405 PAwOBA .314 → .269 (−45)K% 21.5% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.48%	÷0.933	×1.220	—	—	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.56%	÷0.964	×0.680	—	×1.042	11.43%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.43%
Singles /BIP	23.79%	÷0.967	×0.920	×0.973	×1.042	22.93%
Doubles /BIP	4.03%	÷0.918	×0.910	×0.973	×1.042	4.05%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.973	×1.042	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	2.82%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.18%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .314 → .269; ISO .104 → .089; BABIP .292 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Carolina Mudcats · 569 PAwOBA .319 → .249 (−70)K% 24.8% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.78%	÷0.990	×1.420	—	—	35.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.87%	÷0.973	×0.630	—	×1.027	11.22%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.47%
Singles /BIP	21.20%	÷1.004	×0.940	×0.963	×1.027	19.62%
Doubles /BIP	6.65%	÷1.034	×0.830	×0.963	×1.027	5.27%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷0.944	×0.800	×0.963	×1.027	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷0.959	×0.900	—	×1.027	2.44%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .319 → .249; ISO .125 → .104; BABIP .299 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 262 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−58)K% 26.0% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.95%	÷1.022	×1.360	—	—	34.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.12%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.030	10.19%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.61%
Singles /BIP	20.92%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.026	×1.030	19.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.026	×1.030	9.03%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.026	×1.030	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	1.31%	÷1.161	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.93%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .113 → .091; BABIP .325 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKHelena Brewers · 252 PAwOBA .373 → .288 (−85)K% 17.5% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.46%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.68%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.008	9.02%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.86%
Singles /BIP	30.06%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.008	26.08%
Doubles /BIP	4.29%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	3.27%
Triples /BIP	3.68%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	2.80%
Home runs /BIP	1.23%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.008	0.93%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .373 → .288; ISO .121 → .092; BABIP .383 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Henderson'81-'94 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,677 PA	8.5	5,677	197	50	255*	319*	458*	-4	+15	25.5	24.1
/162	664	23	6	-0.5	+1.7	3.0	pk7: 23
#2Ruppert Jones'76-'87 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,038 PA	7.6	5,038	147	143	245*	328*	438*	-7	+38	24.5	22.6
/162	664	19	19	-0.9	+5.0	3.2	pk7: 21
#3Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	8.1	5,379	208	69	222	321	409	+9	+28	20.9	18.5
/162	664	26	8	+1.1	+3.5	2.6	pk7: 16
#4Jose Cruz'97-'08 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,448 PA	8.2	5,448	204	113	237*	325*	431*	-24	-5	18.2	16.5
/162	664	25	14	-2.9	-0.6	2.2	pk7: 15
#5Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#6Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trent Grisham (OGILVIE)	30	50	60	45	60	237/338/443	206	259	17	5	20%	13%	122	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	45→54	55	44→30	59	237/334/429	192	277	23	4	23%	13%	116	+2.5	219/318/400	181	299	24	5	32%	12%	104	+1.6	185/288/349	164	263	25	1	38%	12%	81	-0.0
✕Pedro Álvarez 2017 · MLB	30	44→48	62→65	47→45	49	242/309/464	222	279	31	5	26%	9%	116	+2.5	226/278/410	184	274	26	3	27%	7%	91	+0.7	213/260/384	171	257	25	1	28%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Didi Gregorius 2020 · MLB	30	48→55	56→60	46→50	49	251/300/442	191	253	25	7	14%	6%	107	+1.8	236/291/401	165	249	19	6	15%	6%	94	+0.9	226/284/373	147	243	16	5	15%	6%	85	+0.1
●Jorge Polanco 2023 · MLB	30	48→58	56→60	43→50	55	252/330/443	191	278	24	8	20%	10%	118	+2.6	243/321/426	183	289	24	7	24%	10%	110	+2.1	242/315/430	188	282	25	6	23%	9%	110	+1.6
✕Aaron Hicks 2020 · MLB	30	46→56	57→60	47→55	61	244/348/443	199	279	25	10	22%	14%	124	+3.1	228/337/386	158	275	18	9	22%	14%	107	+1.9	211/330/331	120	261	13	11	22%	14%	94	+0.4
✕Travis Shaw 2020 · MLB	30	41→51	57→60	47→45	55	224/320/419	195	257	26	6	25%	12%	109	+2.0	215/300/383	168	267	21	4	27%	10%	94	+0.9	212/294/380	168	262	21	0	27%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Brad Miller 2020 · MLB	30	45→55	57→60	45→50	49	235/311/433	198	297	25	6	29%	10%	109	+2.0	234/316/433	199	295	26	7	29%	10%	111	+2.1	219/307/399	180	275	25	6	29%	11%	100	+0.6
✕LaMonte Wade Jr. 2024 · MLB	30	48→55	54→55	49→45	59	247/346/423	177	276	22	5	20%	12%	119	+2.7	231/335/365	134	286	14	4	22%	13%	102	+1.5	213/324/329	116	273	12	3	24%	13%	91	+0.4
✕Luis Valbuena 2017 · MLB	31	46→56	57→60	43→50	55	241/328/440	199	274	25	3	22%	11%	116	+2.5	219/294/406	187	270	25	4	28%	9%	97	+1.1	199/273/382	183	243	26	3	30%	9%	84	+0.1
●Max Muncy 2021 · MLB	30	43→47	64→65	48→45	61	239/357/478	239	271	32	5	25%	14%	135	+3.9	226/342/456	230	252	30	3	23%	14%	126	+3.2	217/338/452	235	238	31	2	24%	14%	127	+3.2
✕Rick Ankiel 2009 · MLB	30	44→48	62→65	45→50	45	246/301/474	227	271	32	5	24%	7%	115	+2.4	236/292/406	170	290	20	8	25%	7%	95	+1.0	227/284/376	148	298	16	9	28%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Alex Dickerson 2021 · MLB	31	53→56	59→60	47→45	49	275/340/491	216	307	26	4	20%	8%	132	+3.7	230/292/403	173	273	21	4	24%	7%	95	+0.9	209/270/367	159	249	20	1	25%	6%	77	-0.2
●Mike Moustakas 2019 · MLB	30	48→56	62→65	45	48	259/310/483	223	262	31	3	16%	6%	120	+2.8	247/315/467	220	261	28	4	18%	8%	118	+2.7	238/313/463	225	249	29	2	19%	9%	117	+1.4
✕Colby Rasmus 2017 · MLB	30	41→51	57→65	47→50	48	222/296/413	190	281	26	6	30%	10%	99	+1.2	226/286/411	185	297	24	6	31%	8%	95	+0.9	214/255/422	208	280	28	2	34%	5%	86	+0.1
●Max Kepler 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	59→60	52→50	55	227/314/439	212	238	26	9	19%	10%	112	+2.2	239/316/407	168	269	20	6	19%	9%	105	+1.7	244/317/403	159	278	18	2	19%	9%	105	+1.2
●Chris Iannetta 2011 · MLB	28	43→53	57→60	45	57	231/337/438	207	258	25	3	22%	12%	120	+2.8	229/338/391	162	275	19	6	23%	13%	109	+2.0	235/351/378	143	302	15	2	25%	14%	112	+1.3
★Kyle Schwarber 2023 · MLB	30	39→49	68→70	50→45	55	230/330/494	264	261	37	7	29%	12%	130	+3.5	221/340/476	255	256	36	5	29%	15%	129	+3.4	231/350/489	258	271	37	5	29%	14%	136	+4.7
●Matt Joyce 2014 · MLB	29	46→52	55→60	47→50	56	242/329/431	189	270	23	9	20%	11%	115	+2.4	231/329/387	156	279	17	4	22%	12%	105	+1.7	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
●Ty Wigginton 2007 · MLB	29	50→55	57→60	43→50	48	263/320/461	197	289	25	7	19%	7%	118	+2.7	273/329/464	191	300	24	5	18%	7%	122	+3.0	276/331/455	180	299	23	3	16%	6%	122	+2.4
●Brandon Lowe 2023 · MLB	29	44→51	62→70	50→45	52	243/328/474	231	280	30	6	25%	10%	124	+3.1	239/315/453	214	286	29	7	27%	9%	115	+2.4	249/314/478	228	298	33	4	28%	8%	121	+2.6

Trent Grisham

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps