Brandon Lowe

2B Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 33 L/R 5'9" / 181 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 8.337 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBTB	425	.244/.312/.473	21	5	117	2.0
2025	31	MLBTB	553	.256/.311/.477	31	3	111	1.2
2026	32	MLBPIT	656	.260/.334/.493	35	2	134	4.5
2027PROJ	33	MLBPIT	511	.245/.315/.470	27	3	123	2.3
2028PROJ	34	MLBPIT	453	.235/.304/.447	23	2	114	1.0
2029PROJ	35	MLBPIT	383	.224/.291/.422	18	1	103	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.337First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%79

xwOBA74

Avg EV74

Bat Spd61

Speed40

Form.266/.342/.527 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .248/.316/.486

CompsBrad Miller (age 32) · Derek Dietrich (age 32) · Ramon Castro (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 81123vR 138

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .315 / .470

PA511

HR27

K%28

BB%9

BABIP291

ISO224

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

440.246

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.6

Avg EV

7490.7

Bat Spd

6172.5

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4027.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%25%▲▲24% over 102 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%10%▲12% over 102 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.261▲.303 over 89 AB (60d) · proj .237

HR/BB10.3%▲12.3% over 65 BBE (60d) · proj 9.1%

BABIP.296▲.368 over 57 BIP (60d) · proj .291

SLASH.266/.342/.527▲▲proj .248/.316/.486

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1080 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

250

830

—

wRC+

135

▶▶R

wOBA

262

368

▶▶R

ISO

160

254

▶▶R

BABIP

252

301

▶▶R

31.6%

24.8%

▶▶R

BB%

3.2%

8.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.337 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.6	$13M	+$0.4M
Totals		$12M		$13M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	449	379	94	15	3	5	60	77	5	6	3	248	358	343	701	95	298	17	13	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	101	95	24	5	1	2	2	26	1	1	1	253	276	389	665	137	319	26	2	285	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	367	315	98	34	3	9	47	65	3	6	3	311	405	524	929	213	366	18	13	407	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	69	58	13	3	1	2	9	14	2	1	2	224	348	414	762	190	262	20	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	148	129	30	6	2	6	16	38	2	2	1	233	327	450	776	217	279	26	11	341	118	+3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.9
2018	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	205	181	55	14	0	14	22	47	1	0	1	304	382	613	996	309	339	23	11	427	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	240	199	58	17	1	8	35	55	3	8	2	291	405	508	913	216	360	23	15	399	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	327	296	80	17	2	17	25	113	5	5	0	270	337	514	851	243	377	35	8	371	138	+15	+1	-4	+1	+7	2.1
2020	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	224	193	52	9	2	14	25	58	4	3	0	269	365	554	919	285	309	26	11	396	156	+15	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.2
2021	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	615	535	132	31	0	39	68	167	9	7	1	247	342	523	865	277	280	27	11	376	140	+29	+1	-5	+2	+13	4.1
2022	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	266	235	52	10	2	8	27	61	3	1	0	221	309	383	692	162	263	23	10	311	97	-1	+0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2022	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	17	16	5	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	312	353	438	790	125	357	12	0	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	436	377	87	15	1	21	50	119	6	7	0	231	330	443	773	212	275	27	11	342	119	+10	+1	+4	+2	+9	2.7
2023	29	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	17	14	3	2	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	214	353	357	710	143	333	29	18	327	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	425	385	94	19	3	21	33	112	5	5	1	244	312	473	785	229	287	26	8	343	117	+9	+1	-0	+2	+9	2.0
2024	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	21	17	4	1	0	2	4	9	0	0	0	235	381	647	1.028	412	333	43	19	435	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	507	130	19	0	31	38	149	2	3	2	256	311	477	788	221	297	27	7	342	111	+7	-0	-10	+2	+12	1.2
2026	32	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	584	152	29	1	35	62	189	3	2	0	260	334	493	828	233	319	29	9	360	134	+26	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3650	3241	809	155	13	192	344	1006	39	35	5	250	329	483	812	234	298	28	9	355	126	+114	+5	-16	+15	+79	20.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	449	398	83	13	3	4	41	103	5	6	3	209	291	286	577	78	261	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	101	96	23	5	1	2	1	32	1	1	1	240	255	375	630	135	300	32	1	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	367	327	83	31	2	8	35	91	3	6	3	254	332	434	766	180	322	25	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	148	129	30	6	2	6	16	38	2	2	1	233	327	450	776	217	279	26	11	342	118	+3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.9
2018	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	205	187	49	11	0	13	16	55	1	0	1	262	324	529	853	267	292	27	8	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	240	211	55	16	1	7	23	64	3	8	2	261	342	445	787	185	325	27	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	327	296	79	17	2	17	25	113	5	5	0	267	334	510	844	243	377	35	8	373	138	+15	+1	-4	+1	+7	2.1
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	224	193	51	9	2	14	25	58	4	3	0	264	360	549	910	285	309	26	11	398	156	+15	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	615	539	133	32	0	40	64	167	9	7	1	247	337	529	865	282	280	27	10	375	140	+29	+1	-5	+2	+13	4.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	266	235	51	10	2	8	27	61	3	1	0	217	306	379	684	162	263	23	10	311	97	-1	+0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2022	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	250	294	312	607	62	308	12	0	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	436	377	87	15	1	22	50	119	6	7	0	231	330	451	781	220	275	27	11	344	119	+10	+1	+4	+2	+9	2.7
2023	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	17	15	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	200	294	333	627	133	279	35	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	425	387	94	19	3	22	31	112	5	5	1	243	307	478	785	235	287	26	7	341	117	+9	+1	-0	+2	+9	2.0
2024	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	21	18	3	1	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	167	286	389	675	222	257	52	14	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	508	126	18	0	30	37	149	2	3	2	248	302	461	762	213	297	27	7	332	111	+7	-0	-10	+2	+12	1.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	585	154	28	1	38	61	189	3	2	0	263	336	509	845	246	319	29	9	366	134	+26	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.5
2016	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	449	398	83	13	3	4	41	103	5	6	3	209	291	286	577	78	270	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	449	379	94	15	3	5	60	77	5	6	3	248	358	343	701	95	298	17	13	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	537	484	119	40	3	11	42	141	6	8	6	246	314	409	723	163	321	26	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	537	468	135	42	5	13	58	105	6	8	6	288	374	483	857	194	345	20	11	376	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	593	527	134	33	3	26	55	156	6	10	4	254	332	476	808	222	309	26	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	593	509	143	37	3	28	73	140	6	10	4	281	378	530	908	250	332	24	12	394	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	327	296	79	17	2	17	25	113	5	5	0	267	334	510	844	243	371	35	8	373	138	+15	+1	-4	+1	+7	2.1
2019	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	327	296	80	17	2	17	25	113	5	5	0	270	337	514	851	243	377	35	8	371	138	+15	+1	-4	+1	+7	2.1
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	224	193	51	9	2	14	25	58	4	3	0	264	360	549	910	285	301	26	11	398	156	+15	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	224	193	52	9	2	14	25	58	4	3	0	269	365	554	919	285	309	26	11	396	156	+15	+1	+0	+1	+5	2.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	615	539	133	32	0	40	64	167	9	7	1	247	337	529	865	282	278	27	10	375	140	+29	+1	-5	+2	+13	4.1
2021	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	615	535	132	31	0	39	68	167	9	7	1	247	342	523	865	277	280	27	11	376	140	+29	+1	-5	+2	+13	4.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	283	251	56	12	2	8	27	63	4	1	0	223	309	382	691	159	265	22	10	310	96	-1	+0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	283	251	57	12	2	8	27	63	4	1	0	227	312	386	699	159	271	22	10	314	96	-1	+0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	453	392	90	17	1	22	52	125	6	7	0	230	329	446	775	217	274	28	11	340	116	+9	+1	+4	+2	+10	2.6
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	453	391	90	17	1	21	53	124	6	7	0	230	331	440	771	210	277	27	12	341	116	+9	+1	+4	+2	+10	2.6
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	446	405	97	20	3	23	34	123	5	5	1	240	306	474	780	235	284	28	8	339	115	+8	+1	-0	+2	+10	2.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	446	402	98	20	3	23	37	121	5	5	1	244	315	480	795	236	288	27	8	347	115	+8	+1	-0	+2	+10	2.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	508	126	18	0	30	37	149	2	3	2	248	302	461	762	213	287	27	7	332	111	+7	-0	-10	+2	+12	1.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	507	130	19	0	31	38	149	2	3	2	256	311	477	788	221	297	27	7	342	111	+7	-0	-10	+2	+12	1.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	585	154	28	1	38	61	189	3	2	0	263	336	509	845	246	318	29	9	366	134	+26	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.5
2026	32	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	584	152	29	1	35	62	189	3	2	0	260	334	493	828	233	319	29	9	360	134	+26	+0	+1	+2	+14	4.5
2016	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	449	400	83	13	3	4	41	103	5	6	3	207	291	285	576	77	261	23	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	537	484	119	40	3	11	42	141	6	8	6	246	314	409	723	163	317	26	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	593	527	134	33	3	26	55	156	6	10	4	254	332	476	808	222	302	26	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	327	294	79	17	2	17	25	113	5	5	0	269	334	514	848	245	377	35	8	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	224	193	51	9	2	14	25	58	4	3	0	264	360	549	910	285	309	26	11	398	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	615	537	133	32	0	40	64	167	9	7	1	248	337	531	867	283	280	27	10	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	283	250	56	12	2	8	27	63	4	1	0	224	309	384	693	160	266	22	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	453	392	90	17	1	22	52	125	6	7	0	230	329	446	775	217	275	28	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	446	404	97	20	3	23	34	123	5	5	1	240	306	475	782	235	286	28	8	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	509	126	18	0	30	37	149	2	3	2	248	302	460	761	212	297	27	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	587	154	28	1	38	61	189	3	2	0	262	336	508	844	245	319	29	9	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	446	404	97	20	3	23	34	123	5	5	1	240	306	475	782	235	286	28	8	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	553	509	126	18	0	30	37	149	2	3	2	248	302	460	761	212	297	27	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	656	587	154	28	1	38	61	189	3	2	0	262	336	508	844	245	319	29	9	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	576	518	129	22	1	33	50	161	3	4	1	249	318	486	804	237	291	28	9	350	123	+16	+0	-5	+2	+12	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	511	459	113	20	1	27	44	142	3	3	1	245	315	470	785	225	291	28	9	343	123	+14	+0	-4	+2	+11	2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	453	410	98	16	1	25	38	130	2	2	1	239	307	463	770	224	282	29	8	336	114	+7	+0	-9	+2	+10	1.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	383	347	79	12	0	20	32	113	1	1	0	228	294	437	732	210	271	30	8	321	103	+1	+0	-9	+1	+8	0.3
2030	36	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	307	278	60	9	0	15	25	93	1	1	0	216	282	411	692	194	261	30	8	305	92	-3	+0	-9	+1	+7	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	453	410	96	16	1	23	38	130	2	2	1	235	304	447	751	212	281	29	8	329	114	+7	+0	-9	+2	+10	1.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	383	347	76	12	0	18	32	113	1	1	0	224	291	422	714	198	271	30	8	314	103	+1	+0	-9	+1	+8	0.3
2030	36	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	307	278	59	9	0	14	25	93	1	1	0	213	279	397	675	184	261	30	8	298	92	-3	+0	-9	+1	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4793	4276	1040	192	14	247	439	1342	43	39	6	243	320	468	788	225	292	28	9	345	115	+120	+5	-42	+19	+104	21.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	141	26	2	33	60	182	6	5	1	243	320	466	786	222	293	28	9	345	115	+16	+1	-6	+3	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6790	6072	1473	295	22	322	602	1865	62	64	19	243	317	458	775	215	293	27	9	338	115	+134	+6	-46	+21	+115	23.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	141	28	2	31	58	179	6	6	2	243	318	458	776	215	293	28	9	338	115	+16	+1	-6	+3	+14	2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 21 PAwOBA .423 → .289 (−134)K% 42.9% → 50.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	42.86%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	50.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.05%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×0.972	13.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.985	×0.930	—	×0.972	11.47%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.994	×0.830	—	×0.972	10.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	25.00%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.972	16.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .423 → .289; ISO .412 → .260; BABIP .333 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 17 PAwOBA .320 → .246 (−74)K% 29.4% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	34.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.982	11.82%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.006	×0.930	—	×0.982	10.09%
Doubles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.020	×0.830	—	×0.982	17.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.137	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .320 → .246; ISO .143 → .115; BABIP .333 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 17 PAwOBA .344 → .289 (−55)K% 11.8% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	14.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.992	0.00%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	5.49%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.988	×0.930	—	×0.992	20.01%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.091	×0.830	—	×0.992	10.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .344 → .289; ISO .125 → .092; BABIP .357 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 240 PAwOBA .392 → .338 (−54)K% 22.9% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.92%	÷1.055	×1.220	—	—	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.17%	÷1.031	×0.680	—	×1.012	9.46%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.06%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.965	×0.920	×0.965	×1.012	20.69%
Doubles /BIP	11.81%	÷1.007	×0.910	×0.965	×1.012	10.41%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.010	×0.880	×0.965	×1.012	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.984	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.57%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .392 → .338; ISO .216 → .192; BABIP .360 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 205 PAwOBA .417 → .355 (−62)K% 22.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.93%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	26.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.73%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.87%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.48%
Singles /BIP	20.15%	÷1.052	×0.930	×0.988	×1.048	18.45%
Doubles /BIP	10.45%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.988	×1.048	8.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.988	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.45%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×1.048	9.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .417 → .355; ISO .309 → .270; BABIP .339 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 367 PAwOBA .397 → .334 (−63)K% 17.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.71%	÷1.017	×1.420	—	—	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.26%	÷0.967	×0.750	—	×0.998	9.49%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.76%
Singles /BIP	20.80%	÷1.073	×0.920	×0.990	×0.998	17.62%
Doubles /BIP	13.60%	÷1.007	×0.960	×0.990	×0.998	12.80%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.024	×0.810	×0.990	×0.998	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	3.60%	÷0.917	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.45%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .397 → .334; ISO .213 → .190; BABIP .366 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 101 PAwOBA .283 → .250 (−33)K% 25.7% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.74%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	31.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.98%	÷1.018	×0.680	—	×1.027	1.36%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.85%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷1.013	×0.920	×1.020	×1.027	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷0.986	×0.910	×1.020	×1.027	7.01%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.146	×0.880	×1.020	×1.027	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷1.008	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.36%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .283 → .250; ISO .137 → .116; BABIP .319 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 449 PAwOBA .314 → .256 (−59)K% 17.1% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.15%	÷1.018	×1.360	—	—	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.14%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	—	9.08%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.87%
Singles /BIP	23.51%	÷1.007	×0.920	×0.969	—	20.80%
Doubles /BIP	4.97%	÷0.945	×0.830	×0.969	—	4.22%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.956	×0.910	×0.969	—	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	1.66%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	—	1.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 101, 2B 89, 3B 91, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .314 → .256; ISO .095 → .079; BABIP .298 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Howard Johnson'82-'95 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,715 PA	8.6	5,715	228	231	246*	339*	473*	+18	-66	28.2	27.4
/162	664	26	27	+2.1	-7.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#3Mike Lowell'98-'10 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,498 PA	9.8	6,498	223	30	268*	329*	451*	+15	-22	28.3	26.4
/162	664	23	3	+1.6	-2.3	2.9	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	8.0	5,304	281	42	246	318	477	+19	-22	29.5	26.0
/162	664	35	5	+2.4	-2.8	3.7	pk7: 22
#4Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#5Hank Blalocklast yr '10 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,928 PA	5.9	3,928	153	14	269	329	463	-4	-12	19.2	19.2
/162	664	26	2	-0.7	-1.9	3.2	pk7: 19
#6Chris Sabo'88-'96 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,714 PA	5.6	3,714	116	120	264*	325*	472*	+9	-7	17.1	17.2
/162	664	21	21	+1.6	-1.3	3.1	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brandon Lowe (OGILVIE)	33	50	60	45	40	247/316/482	235	291	29	3	28%	9%	123	+2.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brad Miller 2022 · MLB	32	43→53	60	50	52	235/323/453	218	286	29	6	28%	11%	118	+2.6	221/299/370	149	285	19	8	28%	10%	90	+0.6	198/275/305	107	258	15	6	28%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Derek Dietrich 2021 · MLB	32	43→53	59→55	45→40	47	231/332/442	210	269	27	5	25%	8%	120	+2.8	188/291/335	147	265	17	4	34%	7%	81	-0.1	151/259/274	123	226	14	0	37%	7%	53	-0.9
✕Ramon Castro 2009 · MLB	33	48	59→55	46→40	47	257/315/465	208	289	29	4	23%	8%	118	+2.6	245/307/443	198	280	27	5	23%	8%	109	+2.0	234/297/430	196	256	30	2	22%	8%	103	+0.4
●Robinson Chirinos 2018 · MLB	34	45→46	60	45→50	52	242/337/465	223	282	28	4	25%	10%	126	+3.2	231/335/425	194	299	24	4	29%	10%	116	+2.5	222/334/418	196	298	25	2	31%	11%	114	+1.3
✕Adam Melhuse 2005 · MLB	33	49	59→60	42→45	48	261/316/469	209	289	27	4	21%	8%	119	+2.7	240/293/399	159	293	18	4	24%	7%	94	+0.9	224/273/348	124	286	12	0	26%	6%	75	-0.1
✕Todd Hundley 2002 · MLB	33	42	62→65	42→30	51	235/315/459	224	270	31	3	26%	10%	116	+2.5	226/309/429	203	270	28	4	27%	10%	107	+1.9	207/290/413	207	229	32	0	26%	10%	98	+0.6
✕Kole Calhoun 2021 · MLB	33	40→50	62→60	45→50	53	228/315/457	229	250	31	5	24%	10%	116	+2.5	222/293/393	171	270	22	5	26%	8%	93	+0.8	211/274/353	142	263	16	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Tyler Houston 2002 · MLB	31	49	59→60	45→40	44	265/311/468	203	304	29	4	24%	6%	117	+2.6	265/308/418	153	310	17	5	20%	5%	103	+1.6	275/310/413	139	321	12	1	18%	4%	104	+0.6
●Russell Branyan 2009 · MLB	33	44→43	65→70	49→45	49	241/322/487	246	305	33	8	32%	10%	125	+3.2	242/324/484	242	299	33	5	30%	10%	126	+3.2	234/322/478	244	283	34	3	30%	10%	124	+1.9
✕Jay Bruce 2020 · MLB	33	41→51	62→65	42→50	48	232/294/461	229	251	31	4	23%	8%	109	+2.0	223/285/434	211	255	27	6	25%	8%	99	+1.3	192/239/448	256	194	33	0	23%	6%	87	+0.1
✕Sean Rodríguez 2017 · MLB	32	48→51	58→60	45→50	43	253/314/456	204	314	26	6	28%	7%	116	+2.5	217/304/387	170	293	22	6	32%	10%	96	+1.0	178/283/327	149	245	20	4	34%	11%	76	-0.1
✕Ryan Zimmerman 2018 · MLB	33	49→59	61→65	47→45	47	265/321/484	219	296	29	4	22%	7%	124	+3.1	265/329/462	197	300	24	4	20%	8%	122	+2.9	253/315/451	198	290	24	1	21%	8%	115	+1.1
●Jorge Cantu 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	61→55	49→40	46	234/293/450	215	251	31	7	22%	7%	107	+1.8	241/296/386	145	277	17	6	19%	6%	92	+0.7	233/290/363	130	274	14	4	20%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Franklin Gutierrez 2016 · MLB	33	49→55	58→60	47→55	43	255/312/458	204	316	26	6	28%	6%	115	+2.4	253/327/444	191	323	25	6	28%	9%	117	+2.6	246/331/454	208	312	30	2	30%	10%	122	+1.4
✕Mike Moustakas 2021 · MLB	32	46→56	61→65	49→45	52	248/319/475	227	257	29	5	18%	8%	122	+2.9	230/301/394	164	273	19	4	23%	8%	96	+1.0	224/290/363	139	275	16	1	24%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Luis Valbuena 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	59→60	38→50	54	226/313/435	209	256	28	3	24%	11%	110	+2.1	220/284/386	166	289	21	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4	196/244/328	132	273	18	6	35%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Colby Rasmus 2018 · MLB	31	42→52	59→65	48→50	45	230/295/433	203	289	28	6	31%	9%	103	+1.5	226/286/392	166	300	20	8	30%	7%	90	+0.6	168/225/279	110	236	12	0	33%	6%	40	-0.5
✕Mendy López 2007 · MLB	33	52→54	58→55	45→30	54	269/351/469	201	315	26	5	23%	11%	132	+3.6	249/320/423	174	300	21	3	23%	9%	109	+2.0	241/312/403	162	289	19	0	23%	9%	101	+0.8
●Salvador Perez 2023 · MLB	33	48→58	67→70	47→30	39	270/308/522	251	298	38	2	24%	4%	130	+3.5	258/299/458	200	289	28	1	22%	4%	111	+2.1	253/296/448	195	279	28	0	21%	4%	108	+2.0
✕Alex Dickerson 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	58→60	49→45	48	257/324/462	206	292	26	4	22%	8%	120	+2.8	217/275/369	152	264	18	5	25%	7%	80	-0.1	183/235/311	127	226	14	1	25%	6%	49	-1.6

Brandon Lowe

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps