Max Muncy

3B Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 36 L/R 5'10" / 215 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 1.837 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202433MLBLAD293.232/.366/.4941511362.2
202534AAALAD25.318/.400/.5001088—.261/.320/.435
202534MLBLAD388.243/.381/.4701941412.8
202635MLBLAD561.252/.348/.4902931344.0
2027PROJ36MLBLAD259.240/.345/.4841421321.6
2028PROJ37MLBLAD175.226/.331/.452901200.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 9.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.837First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$2M2030Ext$4M2031Ext$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA90
Barrel%80
Avg EV69
Bat Spd48
Speed43
Form.238/.332/.464 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .241/.344/.482
CompsCurtis Granderson (age 37) · Ken Griffey Jr. (age 35) · Russell Branyan (age 36)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 106132vR 141
AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .345 / .484
PA259
HR14
K%24
BB%12
BABIP263
ISO243
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +9.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+10BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +5.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+6REPTotal WAR: +1.50+1.5WAR
0.01.02.01.50.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
330.237
POWER
Barrel%
8012.6
Avg EV
6990.4
Bat Spd
4871.1
SPEED
Sprint
4327.2
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%·24% over 93 PA (60d) · proj 24%
BB%11%▼10% over 93 PA (60d) · proj 12%
ISO.226▼.198 over 81 AB (60d) · proj .241
HR/BB7.3%▼5.1% over 59 BBE (60d) · proj 8.4%
BABIP.272·.321 over 56 BIP (60d) · proj .269
SLASH.238/.332/.464▼proj .241/.344/.482
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 782 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
179
603
—
wRC+
97
153
▶▶R
wOBA
311
394
▶▶R
ISO
242
252
▶R
BABIP
188
299
▶▶R
K%
28.5%
22.6%
▶▶R
BB%
8.4%
16.6%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2015
Service   1.837 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.5$12M+$11M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $12M +$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201221 ABurlington Bees — 274229 632024 41371 31 275387432820 157309 1415 365 80 — — — — — —
201322 AAMidland RockHounds — 197172 431224 24340 01 250342413755 163289 1712 337 69 — — — — — —
201322 A+Stockton Ports — 428351 10013121 64687 11 285405507912 222295 1615 399 102 — — — — — —
201322 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 6049 11010 10100 00 224356265621 41275 1717 294 85 — — — — — —
201423 AAMidland RockHounds — 530434 1142237 88922 72 263389376765 113314 1717 349 76 — — — — — —
201524 MLBOakland Athletics — 112102 21813 9310 00 206270392662 186261 288 291 85 -2 +0 -5 -7 +2 -1.1
201524 AAANashville Sounds — 243212 581414 26581 01 274356406761 132351 2411 338 79 — — — — — —
201524 INTLCharros de Jalisco — 2725 8101 161 00 320370480850 160389 224 379 142 — — — — — —
201625 MLBOakland Athletics — 133113 21202 20240 00 186308257565 71218 1815 271 68 -5 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.0
201625 AAANashville Sounds — 268223 56728 35545 50 251365408773 157291 2013 344 79 — — — — — —
201726 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers — 379320 9920112 54844 36 309415491906 181387 2214 403 100 — — — — — —
201827 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 481395 10417235 791315 30 263392582975 319299 2716 420 166 +38 +1 -9 -9 +10 3.2
201827 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers — 3832 10202 650 00 312421562984 250320 1316 430 114 — — — — — —
201928 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 589487 12222135 901498 41 251376515891 265283 2515 389 151 +36 +0 +1 +2 +13 5.3
202029 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 248203 394012 39604 10 192333389722 197203 2416 327 105 +2 +0 -5 -4 +5 -0.3
202130 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 592497 12426236 8312011 21 249369527896 278257 2014 392 150 +35 +0 -0 -11 +13 3.8
202231 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 565464 9122121 901415 20 196333384716 188227 2516 323 108 +5 +0 -2 +2 +12 1.9
202231 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers — 1714 2001 360 00 143294357651 214143 3518 299 20 — — — — — —
202332 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 579482 10217136 851536 12 212337475812 263221 2615 355 125 +17 -1 -5 +2 +13 2.7
202433 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 293237 5517015 45775 10 232366494860 262265 2615 372 136 +13 +0 +1 +1 +6 2.2
202433 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club — 2421 6101 360 00 286375476851 190357 2512 378 81 — — — — — —
202534 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 388313 7610219 64836 40 243381470851 227264 2116 375 141 +19 +1 -2 +1 +8 2.8
202534 AAAOklahoma City Comets — 2522 7101 390 00 318400500900 182500 3612 399 88 — — — — — —
202635 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 561488 12327129 651407 30 252348490838 238294 2512 369 134 +23 +1 +2 +2 +12 4.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 45413781 87817211243 669110957 214 232356476832 244258 2415 366 134 +183 +3 -23 -19 +98 24.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201221 A MLEBurlington Bees — 274242 531623 28541 31 219303339641 120261 2010 287 80 — — — — — —
201322 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 197179 37924 17440 01 207276346622 140246 229 270 69 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLEStockton Ports — 428377 8811118 38877 11 233315411726 178243 209 319 102 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 530467 1041836 551172 72 223307313620 90273 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLEOakland Athletics — 112102 21813 9310 00 206270392662 186261 288 294 85 -2 +0 -5 -7 +2 -1.1
201524 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 243220 531114 18721 01 241301355656 114319 307 285 79 — — — — — —
201625 MLB MLEOakland Athletics — 133114 21202 19240 00 184301254555 70218 1814 269 68 -5 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.0
201625 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 268232 48627 26695 50 207300341641 134247 2610 285 79 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 379337 841519 371084 36 249331380711 131339 2810 316 100 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 481401 10518234 731315 30 262382571953 309299 2715 414 166 +38 +1 -9 -9 +10 3.2
201827 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 3835 10202 370 00 286342514856 229273 188 336 114 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 589488 12323134 891498 41 252376512888 260283 2515 392 151 +36 +0 +1 +2 +13 5.3
202029 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 248205 394012 37604 10 190325385711 195203 2415 324 105 +2 +0 -5 -4 +5 -0.3
202130 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 592502 12628235 7812011 21 251364524888 273257 2013 390 150 +35 +0 -0 -11 +13 3.8
202231 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 565465 9123120 891415 20 196331378709 183227 2516 328 108 +5 +0 -2 +2 +12 1.9
202231 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 1715 2001 270 00 133235333569 200118 4112 198 20 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 579486 10218135 811536 12 210330467797 257221 2614 352 125 +17 -1 -5 +2 +13 2.7
202433 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 293240 5518014 42775 10 229355479835 250265 2614 369 136 +13 +0 +1 +1 +6 2.2
202433 AAA MLEOklahoma City Baseball Club — 2422 6101 270 00 273333455788 182310 298 288 81 — — — — — —
202534 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 388315 7611218 62836 40 241376460836 219264 2116 376 141 +19 +1 -2 +1 +8 2.8
202534 AAA MLEOklahoma City Comets — 2523 6101 2110 00 261320435755 174439 448 298 88 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 561493 12529128 601407 30 254343487830 233294 2511 366 134 +23 +1 +2 +2 +12 4.0
201221 A MLEBurlington Bees — 274242 531623 28541 31 219303339641 120266 2010 287 80 — — — — — —
201221 A RAWBurlington Bees — 274229 632024 41371 31 275387432820 157309 1415 365 80 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLE3 teams — 685610 13622324 601447 12 223300387687 164249 219 304 92 — — — — — —
201322 A+ RAW3 teams — 685572 15425425 981127 12 269383458841 189291 1614 372 92 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 530467 1041836 551172 72 223307313620 90280 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
201423 AA RAWMidland RockHounds — 530434 1142237 88922 72 263389376765 113314 1717 349 76 — — — — — —
201524 AAA MLE3 teams — 382346 792028 291112 01 228292367659 139306 298 288 81 — — — — — —
201524 AAA RAW3 teams — 382339 872328 36952 01 257332407739 150328 259 327 81 — — — — — —
201625 AAA MLE2 teams — 401346 708210 45935 50 202303324627 121243 2311 280 75 — — — — — —
201625 AAA RAW2 teams — 401336 779210 55785 50 229346357703 128266 1914 320 75 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 379337 841519 371084 36 249331380711 131339 2810 316 100 — — — — — —
201726 AAA RAWOklahoma City Dodgers — 379320 9920112 54844 36 309415491906 181387 2214 403 100 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 519436 11320235 761385 30 259375555930 296294 2715 409 163 +39 +1 -9 -9 +11 3.3
201827 MLB RAW2 teams — 519427 11419237 851365 30 267395581975 314301 2616 421 163 +39 +1 -9 -9 +11 3.3
201928 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 589488 12323134 891498 41 252376512888 260288 2515 392 151 +36 +0 +1 +2 +13 5.3
201928 MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers — 589487 12222135 901498 41 251376515891 265283 2515 389 151 +36 +0 +1 +2 +13 5.3
202029 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 248205 394012 37604 10 190325385711 195200 2415 324 105 +2 +0 -5 -4 +5 -0.3
202029 MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers — 248203 394012 39604 10 192333389722 197203 2416 327 105 +2 +0 -5 -4 +5 -0.3
202130 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 592502 12628235 7812011 21 251364524888 273261 2013 390 150 +35 +0 -0 -11 +13 3.8
202130 MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers — 592497 12426236 8312011 21 249369527896 278257 2014 392 150 +35 +0 -0 -11 +13 3.8
202231 MLB MLE2 teams — 582480 9323121 911485 20 194328377705 183227 2516 324 105 +4 +0 -2 +2 +13 1.7
202231 MLB RAW2 teams — 582478 9322122 931475 20 195332383714 188225 2516 322 105 +4 +0 -2 +2 +13 1.7
202332 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 579486 10218135 811536 12 210330467797 257220 2614 352 125 +17 -1 -5 +2 +13 2.7
202332 MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers — 579482 10217136 851536 12 212337475812 263221 2615 355 125 +17 -1 -5 +2 +13 2.7
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 317262 6119015 44845 10 233354477831 244272 2614 363 132 +12 +0 +1 +1 +7 2.2
202433 MLB RAW2 teams — 317258 6118016 48835 10 236367492859 256273 2615 372 132 +12 +0 +1 +1 +7 2.2
202534 MLB MLE2 teams — 413338 8211219 64946 40 243373456828 213274 2315 372 138 +18 +1 -2 +1 +9 2.8
202534 MLB RAW2 teams — 413335 8311220 67926 40 248382472854 224276 2216 376 138 +18 +1 -2 +1 +9 2.8
202635 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 561493 12529128 601407 30 254343487830 233298 2511 366 134 +23 +1 +2 +2 +12 4.0
202635 MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers — 561488 12327129 651407 30 252348490838 238294 2512 369 134 +23 +1 +2 +2 +12 4.0
201221 A MLEBurlington Bees — 274243 531623 28541 31 218303337640 119261 2010 287 80 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLE3 teams — 685613 13622324 601447 12 222300385685 163244 219 304 92 — — — — — —
201423 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 530468 1041836 551172 72 222307312619 90273 2210 280 76 — — — — — —
201524 AAA MLE3 teams — 382348 792028 291112 01 227292365657 138301 298 288 81 — — — — — —
201625 AAA MLE2 teams — 401348 708210 45935 50 201303322625 121238 2311 280 75 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 379335 841519 371084 36 251331382713 131339 2810 316 100 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 519433 11320235 761385 30 261375559934 298297 2715 409 163 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 589487 12323134 891498 41 253376513889 261283 2515 392 151 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 248205 394012 37604 10 190325385711 195203 2415 324 105 — — — — — —
202130 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 592498 12628235 7812011 21 253364528892 275257 2013 390 150 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLE2 teams — 582481 9323121 911485 20 193328376704 183224 2516 324 105 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 579487 10218135 811536 12 209330466796 257221 2614 352 125 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 317265 6119015 44845 10 230354472825 242268 2614 363 132 — — — — — —
202534 MLB MLE2 teams — 413340 8211219 64946 40 241373453825 212274 2315 372 138 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 561489 12529128 601407 30 256343491834 235294 2511 366 134 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 317265 6119015 44845 10 230354472825 242268 2614 363 132 — — — — — —
202534 MLB MLE2 teams — 413340 8211219 64946 40 241373453825 212274 2315 372 138 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 561489 12529128 601407 30 256343491834 235294 2511 366 134 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202736 MLB MLELAD 100% 369315 7515119 46885 41 242347482829 241269 2412 363 132 +14 +0 -1 +1 +8 1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202736 MLB CTXLAD 100% 259222 5310114 32623 21 240345484830 245263 2412 363 132 +10 +0 -1 +1 +6 1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202837 MLB MLELAD 100% 175150 36719 21432 00 228333450783 222257 2512 345 120 +4 +0 -8 +1 +4 0.1
202837 MLB CTXLAD 100% 175150 33609 21432 00 226331452784 226251 2512 345 120 +4 +0 -8 +1 +4 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 47163931 91117811252 690115259 214 232355475830 243257 2415 365 117 +187 +3 -31 -18 +102 24.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650542 12725235 951598 31 234357482838 247261 2415 365 117 +26 +0 -4 -3 +14 3.4
Career— MLE — 74856410 148029225317 927181883 4217 231336433768 202268 2412 341 117 +197 +3 -32 -17 +108 26.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650557 12825228 811587 41 230335433768 203266 2412 341 117 +26 +0 -4 -2 +14 3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 25 PAwOBA .389 → .298 (−91)K% 36.0% → 42.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.00%÷1.015×1.200——42.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.083×0.690—×0.9407.19%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP38.46%÷0.951×0.930—×0.94035.34%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷0.969×0.830—×0.9406.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷0.956×0.700—×0.9405.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .389 → .298; ISO .182 → .126; BABIP .500 → .439. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 24 PAwOBA .368 → .288 (−80)K% 25.0% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷0.990×1.200——30.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.021×0.690—×0.9407.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP26.67%÷0.977×0.930—×0.94023.86%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷0.930×0.830—×0.9405.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.126×0.970—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷0.896×0.700—×0.9404.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 125, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .368 → .288; ISO .190 → .143; BABIP .357 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 17 PAwOBA .291 → .198 (−93)K% 35.3% → 42.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.29%÷1.009×1.200——41.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.65%÷1.073×0.690—×0.95210.81%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP12.50%÷1.027×0.930—×0.95210.77%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.958×0.830—×0.9520.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.955×0.970—×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP12.50%÷0.997×0.700—×0.9528.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .291 → .198; ISO .214 → .144; BABIP .143 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 38 PAwOBA .412 → .336 (−75)K% 13.2% → 17.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.16%÷0.970×1.290——17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.16%÷1.021×0.710—×0.9929.07%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×0.9920.00%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.992×0.900—×0.99219.99%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷1.029×0.810—×0.9925.78%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.020×0.810—×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷1.020×0.780—×0.9925.62%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .412 → .336; ISO .250 → .197; BABIP .320 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 379 PAwOBA .393 → .316 (−77)K% 22.2% → 28.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.16%÷1.000×1.290——28.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.98%÷1.017×0.710—×1.0039.79%
HBP% /PA1.06%—×0.980—×1.0031.04%
Singles /BIP27.97%÷0.978×0.900×0.999×1.00325.80%
Doubles /BIP8.47%÷1.038×0.810×0.999×1.0036.63%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷1.150×0.810×0.999×1.0030.30%
Home runs /BIP5.08%÷0.989×0.780—×1.0034.02%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .393 → .316; ISO .181 → .138; BABIP .387 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 268 PAwOBA .341 → .285 (−56)K% 20.1% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.15%÷1.004×1.290——25.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.06%÷0.979×0.710—×1.0189.64%
HBP% /PA1.87%—×0.980—×1.0181.86%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷1.035×0.900×0.962×1.01819.66%
Doubles /BIP4.14%÷0.898×0.810×0.962×1.0183.66%
Triples /BIP1.18%÷1.015×0.810×0.962×1.0180.92%
Home runs /BIP4.73%÷0.856×0.780—×1.0184.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .341 → .285; ISO .157 → .141; BABIP .291 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAANashville Sounds · 243 PAwOBA .333 → .285 (−48)K% 23.9% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.87%÷1.034×1.290——29.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.29%÷1.018×0.710—×1.0337.41%
HBP% /PA0.41%—×0.980—×1.0330.42%
Singles /BIP25.32%÷0.953×0.900×0.986×1.03324.35%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.063×0.810×0.986×1.0337.05%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷0.952×0.810×0.986×1.0330.56%
Home runs /BIP2.60%÷0.843×0.780—×1.0332.48%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .333 → .285; ISO .132 → .112; BABIP .351 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAMidland RockHounds · 530 PAwOBA .341 → .280 (−61)K% 17.4% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.36%÷0.957×1.220——22.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.66%÷1.078×0.700—×1.01210.29%
HBP% /PA0.38%—×0.870—×1.0120.33%
Singles /BIP23.98%÷0.982×0.920×0.950×1.01221.60%
Doubles /BIP6.43%÷1.049×0.840×0.950×1.0124.95%
Triples /BIP0.88%÷1.012×0.940×0.950×1.0120.78%
Home runs /BIP2.05%÷0.961×0.800—×1.0121.73%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 102, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .280; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .