Matt Carpenter — OGILVIE

Matt CarpenterDH St. Louis Cardinals

Age 40 L/R 6'4" / 224 lbs MLB HR -7%K -4% Svc 15.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.7 · 2026

wRC+†115

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .331 / .417

PA134

HR5

K%29

BB%13

xwOBA.290

Barrel%6.8%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

45→45

SPD

30→30

EYE

60→60

Barrel%

396.8

xwOBA

340.290

Avg EV

1085.8

Whiff%

490.110

Chase%

900.237

Speed

1024.6

Bat Spd

3169.3

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2011

Service 15.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$1M		$3M	+$2M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	23	A+	2 teams	254	226	51	10	3	2	20	51	4	3	0	.226	.300	.323	.623	.097	.280	20	8	.268	63	-11	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
2010	24	AA	2 teams	600	525	138	26	5	11	60	134	6	11	3	.263	.345	.394	.739	.131	.331	22	10	.325	107	+5	+1	+0	+2	+17	2.5
2011	25	AAA	3 teams	569	488	130	29	3	11	64	96	8	6	4	.266	.361	.406	.766	.139	.307	17	11	.338	117	+11	-0	-0	+2	+16	2.9
2012	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	340	296	84	21	5	6	34	63	3	1	1	.284	.363	.449	.813	.166	.333	19	10	.347	124	+9	-0	-7	-6	+10	0.5
2013	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	717	626	197	55	7	11	72	98	9	3	3	.315	.393	.478	.871	.163	.355	14	10	.378	147	+38	-1	+3	+3	+20	6.5
2014	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	709	595	164	33	1	8	95	111	8	5	3	.276	.383	.375	.757	.099	.322	16	13	.337	116	+13	-0	-3	+3	+20	3.3
2015	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	665	574	160	45	3	31	81	151	6	4	3	.279	.374	.530	.903	.251	.326	23	12	.383	151	+38	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.8
2016	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	566	473	128	37	6	21	81	108	5	0	4	.271	.383	.507	.890	.237	.307	19	14	.378	148	+30	-2	-2	+2	+16	4.6
2017	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	622	497	121	30	2	25	109	125	9	2	1	.243	.389	.463	.851	.219	.273	20	18	.368	140	+28	+0	-8	-11	+18	2.7
2018	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	677	565	147	44	0	38	102	158	6	4	1	.260	.379	.540	.919	.280	.292	23	15	.381	150	+38	+0	-9	-12	+19	3.7
2019	33	MLB	2 teams	511	432	95	21	1	17	66	134	7	6	1	.220	.333	.391	.724	.171	.273	26	13	.324	106	+4	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.6
2020	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	169	140	27	7	0	4	23	48	6	0	0	.193	.331	.329	.660	.136	.261	28	14	.299	87	-3	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.5
2021	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	249	207	35	11	1	3	35	77	6	2	0	.169	.306	.275	.582	.106	.250	31	14	.274	68	-9	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.2
2022	36	MLB	2 teams	249	212	58	14	2	19	29	60	5	1	1	.274	.374	.627	1.001	.354	.289	24	12	.415	176	+21	-0	+0	-3	+7	2.6
2023	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	237	189	32	12	0	5	41	67	2	1	0	.169	.323	.312	.635	.143	.221	28	17	.291	81	-5	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.4
2024	38	MLB	2 teams	174	152	35	7	0	6	18	58	2	0	2	.230	.320	.395	.715	.164	.322	33	10	.306	92	-1	-1	+0	-3	+5	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	40	MLB	STL	134	115	26	6	0	5	17	38	1	1	0	.226	.331	.409	.740	.183	.292	28	13	.336	115	+2	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7442	6312	1628	408	39	223	947	1577	93	50	27	.258	.363	.441	.804	.183	.307	21	13	.348	125	+209	-1	-25	-21	+211	38.1
/ 162G	—			650	551	142	36	3	19	83	138	8	4	2	.258	.363	.437	.800	.180	.307	21	13	.348	125	+18	+0	-2	-2	+18	3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	128	114	25	6	1	2	10	24	1	1	0	.219	.288	.342	.630	.123	.258	19	8	.279	71	-4	+0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2009	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	126	105	31	6	2	0	17	13	3	2	0	.295	.408	.390	.798	.095	.333	10	13	.364	136	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2010	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	472	396	125	26	3	12	64	88	4	11	2	.316	.416	.487	.903	.172	.377	19	14	.396	161	+33	+1	—	—	+13	4.8
2010	24	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	128	99	28	5	2	1	26	14	2	0	1	.283	.441	.404	.845	.121	.321	11	20	.386	154	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2011	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	19	15	1	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	.067	.263	.133	.396	.067	.091	21	21	.214	22	-2	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.1
2011	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	535	434	130	29	3	12	84	68	8	5	4	.300	.422	.463	.885	.164	.328	13	16	.391	158	+35	-1	—	—	+15	5.0
2011	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	15	13	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	.231	.333	.231	.564	.000	.333	27	13	.274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2012	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	340	296	87	22	5	6	34	63	3	1	1	.294	.372	.463	.835	.169	.346	19	10	.364	136	+14	-0	-7	-6	+10	1.0
2013	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	717	626	199	55	7	11	72	98	9	3	3	.318	.396	.481	.877	.163	.359	14	10	.385	152	+42	-1	+3	+3	+20	6.9
2014	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	709	595	162	33	2	8	95	111	8	5	3	.272	.380	.375	.754	.103	.318	16	13	.341	119	+16	-0	-3	+3	+20	3.5
2015	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	665	574	156	44	3	28	81	151	6	4	3	.272	.368	.505	.873	.233	.321	23	12	.382	150	+38	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.7
2016	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	566	473	128	36	6	21	81	108	5	0	4	.271	.383	.505	.888	.235	.307	19	14	.386	154	+34	-2	-2	+2	+16	5.0
2017	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	622	497	120	31	2	23	109	125	9	2	1	.241	.387	.451	.838	.209	.274	20	18	.372	143	+30	+0	-8	-11	+18	2.9
2018	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	677	564	145	42	0	36	102	158	6	4	1	.257	.376	.523	.899	.266	.291	23	15	.392	158	+44	+0	-9	-12	+19	4.4
2019	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	492	416	94	20	2	15	63	129	7	6	1	.226	.337	.392	.729	.166	.285	26	13	.327	108	+5	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.6
2019	33	AA	Springfield Cardinals	19	15	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	.000	.211	.000	.211	.000	.000	21	21	.147	-29	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2020	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	169	140	26	6	0	4	23	48	6	0	0	.186	.325	.314	.640	.129	.250	28	14	.302	89	-2	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.5
2021	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	249	207	35	11	1	3	35	77	6	2	0	.169	.306	.275	.582	.106	.250	31	14	.277	70	-8	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
2022	36	MLB	New York Yankees	154	128	39	9	0	15	19	35	5	0	0	.305	.414	.727	1.141	.422	.304	23	12	.476	222	+21	+0	+0	-3	+4	2.4
2022	36	AAA	Round Rock Express	95	80	22	5	2	6	14	20	0	1	1	.275	.383	.613	.995	.338	.291	21	15	.422	181	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2023	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	237	188	33	12	0	5	41	67	2	1	0	.176	.328	.319	.647	.144	.231	28	17	.297	85	-4	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.2
2024	38	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	157	137	32	7	0	4	15	51	2	0	2	.234	.316	.372	.688	.139	.333	32	10	.307	93	-1	-1	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
2024	38	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	17	13	3	0	0	2	4	6	0	0	0	.231	.412	.692	1.104	.462	.200	35	24	.462	212	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5773	4856	1257	329	28	179	774	1225	74	28	19	.259	.369	.449	.818	.190	.307	21	13	.362	135	+227	-2	-25	-24	+164	34.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Carpenter (OGILVIE)	40	40	45	30	60	.226/.331/.417	.190	.292	5	1	29%	13%	115	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Guillermo Velasquez 2007 · AAA	39	47	49→45	38→30	50	.240/.302/.380	.140	.281	17	4	21%	8%	92	+1.2	.216/.266/.323	.107	.265	11	6	22%	6%	61	-1.0	.201/.245/.279	.078	.249	7	2	22%	6%	41	-1.2
✕Matt Stairs 2008 · MLB	40	52→55	56→65	42→45	57	.269/.353/.472	.203	.296	23	3	18%	11%	137	+4.3	.254/.344/.445	.191	.297	24	4	22%	11%	126	+3.5	.236/.339/.415	.179	.284	23	3	24%	12%	103	+0.7
●Raul Ibanez 2012 · MLB	40	50→60	55→60	47→45	52	.257/.321/.448	.191	.284	22	4	19%	8%	118	+3.0	.240/.305/.435	.195	.267	24	4	20%	8%	108	+2.3	.226/.299/.427	.201	.248	26	3	21%	9%	99	+1.1
✕Jayson Werth 2018 · MLB	39	46→56	52→60	44→55	55	.235/.323/.400	.165	.278	20	6	23%	11%	106	+2.2	.224/.301/.385	.161	.279	18	7	25%	9%	93	+1.3	.167/.233/.315	.148	.212	14	0	28%	7%	45	-0.5
✕Hideki Matsui 2012 · MLB	38	52→60	53→60	39→40	58	.263/.344/.435	.171	.283	21	2	16%	11%	123	+3.3	.229/.297/.354	.125	.265	14	5	19%	9%	82	+0.5	.151/.205/.208	.057	.182	7	0	22%	6%	1	-1.3
✕Carlos Sievers 2014 · AAA	39	46→56	47→50	42→45	50	.234/.300/.362	.128	.266	16	7	19%	8%	86	+0.8	.236/.295/.351	.115	.272	13	8	18%	7%	81	+0.4	.251/.315/.326	.075	.283	10	0	15%	7%	82	+0.1
✕Roberto Mendez 2012 · AAA	39	52→59	47→50	41→45	52	.258/.325/.390	.133	.302	15	5	20%	9%	104	+2.0	.251/.323/.374	.123	.308	12	5	21%	10%	99	+1.7	.253/.333/.362	.110	.313	9	3	20%	11%	99	+0.6
✕Francisco Mendez 2016 · AAA	38	48→58	47→50	43→40	49	.236/.310/.366	.130	.315	15	4	29%	10%	92	+1.2	.228/.293/.372	.144	.305	18	5	30%	8%	86	+0.8	.200/.266/.350	.150	.260	22	0	32%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Karim Garcia 2015 · AAA	39	46→52	57→60	47→50	40	.248/.286/.434	.186	.292	26	7	26%	5%	100	+1.7	.217/.250/.336	.119	.257	14	5	22%	4%	58	-1.2	.194/.225/.261	.067	.234	7	0	20%	4%	24	-1.6
✕Julian Yan 2006 · AAA	41	40→42	62→65	45	50	.229/.305/.452	.223	.264	31	5	27%	10%	112	+2.6	.234/.296/.438	.204	.271	29	8	25%	8%	105	+2.1	.238/.293/.464	.226	.259	33	9	23%	7%	108	+1.8
✕Ray Martinez 2009 · AAA	40	51→56	46→50	45	48	.253/.308/.379	.126	.287	15	8	18%	7%	94	+1.3	.274/.320/.401	.127	.324	14	8	19%	6%	104	+2.0	.325/.368/.443	.118	.393	11	6	19%	6%	134	+1.9
✕Brian Jordan 2005 · MLB	38	53→57	49→55	42→45	51	.263/.324/.418	.155	.287	17	5	15%	8%	111	+2.5	.246/.302/.376	.130	.287	14	7	19%	7%	91	+1.1	.249/.300/.363	.114	.298	13	4	21%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Robert Saucedo 2014 · AAA	38	44→54	57→65	42→40	48	.240/.301/.432	.192	.256	27	2	20%	7%	106	+2.2	.235/.296/.399	.164	.263	22	4	20%	7%	95	+1.4	.228/.300/.380	.151	.263	21	0	22%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Mario Valdez 2013 · AAA	38	53	53→50	46→40	46	.270/.320/.445	.175	.303	22	5	19%	6%	116	+2.8	.247/.290/.352	.105	.320	11	7	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.233/.274/.261	.028	.328	2	2	28%	5%	45	-0.4
✕Cornelio Garcia 2006 · AAA	41	58→64	48→45	43→45	51	.284/.340/.437	.154	.328	14	6	18%	8%	121	+3.2	.269/.334/.369	.100	.324	8	8	18%	9%	102	+1.8	.269/.340/.332	.063	.328	4	8	17%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Ruben Sierra 2005 · MLB	39	50→54	53→60	48→40	51	.258/.312/.430	.172	.273	22	5	15%	8%	109	+2.4	.238/.293/.397	.159	.273	18	5	20%	7%	92	+1.2	.227/.265/.366	.140	.276	13	0	23%	5%	68	-0.1
✕Joey Votto 2023 · MLB	39	42→52	59→65	48→50	59	.228/.337/.440	.211	.261	27	2	24%	13%	123	+3.3	.208/.311/.383	.175	.270	22	4	30%	11%	98	+1.6	.181/.296/.362	.181	.218	26	0	30%	12%	83	+0.3
✕Wally Joyner 2001 · MLB	39	54	46→45	47→40	60	.263/.346/.397	.134	.286	14	5	13%	11%	115	+2.7	.251/.322/.382	.131	.273	14	7	13%	9%	101	+1.8	.243/.304/.351	.108	.260	11	4	11%	8%	83	+0.2
✕A.J. Pierzynski 2016 · MLB	39	55→63	47→55	37→40	45	.272/.310/.404	.132	.290	14	2	12%	4%	101	+1.8	.247/.288/.364	.117	.267	11	5	12%	4%	81	+0.4	.220/.247/.311	.091	.242	5	2	11%	2%	46	-0.9
✕Jason Giambi 2010 · MLB	39	43→53	59→70	41→40	62	.234/.360/.448	.214	.256	28	3	21%	14%	134	+4.1	.237/.358/.425	.188	.280	23	4	23%	14%	128	+3.6	.229/.361/.399	.170	.280	21	2	24%	15%	110	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)