Matt Carpenter — OGILVIE

Matt CarpenterDH St. Louis Cardinals

Age 40 L/R 6'4" / 224 lbs MLB Svc 15.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†121

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .340 / .426

PA170

HR6

K%27

BB%13

ISO193

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 64 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT64

Whiff%

5810.2%

xwOBA

590.319

POWER48

Barrel%

6610.6

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

3169.3

EYE71

Chase%

9023.2%

SPEED36

Sprint

1024.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2011

Service 15.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.3M
Totals		$0.8M		$0.5M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	23	A+	2 teams	—	254	227	50	10	3	2	19	52	4	3	0	220	292	317	609	97	274	20	7	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	A+	2 teams	—	254	219	56	12	3	2	27	37	4	3	0	256	348	365	713	110	297	15	11	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA	2 teams	—	600	527	138	27	5	10	58	132	6	11	3	262	342	389	731	127	329	22	10	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA	2 teams	—	600	495	153	31	5	13	90	102	6	11	3	309	421	471	892	162	365	17	15	394	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA	3 teams	—	569	489	136	32	3	13	63	98	8	6	4	278	370	436	805	157	320	17	11	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA	3 teams	—	569	462	134	30	3	12	90	76	8	6	4	290	414	446	860	156	321	13	16	382	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	340	296	87	22	5	6	34	63	3	1	1	294	372	463	835	169	346	19	10	356	131	+12	-0	-7	-6	+10	0.8
2012	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	340	296	87	22	5	6	34	63	3	1	1	294	372	463	835	169	346	19	10	364	136	+14	-0	-7	-6	+10	1.0
2013	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	717	626	199	55	7	11	72	98	9	3	3	318	396	481	877	163	359	14	10	380	149	+40	-1	+3	+3	+20	6.6
2013	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	717	626	199	55	7	11	72	98	9	3	3	318	396	481	877	163	359	14	10	385	152	+42	-1	+3	+3	+20	6.9
2014	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	709	595	162	33	2	8	95	111	8	5	3	272	380	375	754	103	318	16	13	336	115	+12	-0	-3	+3	+20	3.2
2014	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	709	595	162	33	2	8	95	111	8	5	3	272	380	375	754	103	318	16	13	341	119	+16	-0	-3	+3	+20	3.5
2015	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	665	574	156	44	3	28	81	151	6	4	3	272	368	505	873	233	321	23	12	373	144	+33	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.2
2015	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	665	574	156	44	3	28	81	151	6	4	3	272	368	505	873	233	321	23	12	382	150	+38	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.7
2016	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	566	473	128	36	6	21	81	108	5	0	4	271	383	505	888	235	307	19	14	375	146	+29	-2	-2	+2	+16	4.5
2016	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	566	473	128	36	6	21	81	108	5	0	4	271	383	505	888	235	307	19	14	386	154	+34	-2	-2	+2	+16	5.0
2017	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	622	497	120	31	2	23	109	125	9	2	1	241	387	451	838	209	274	20	18	364	137	+26	+0	-8	-11	+18	2.5
2017	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	622	497	120	31	2	23	109	125	9	2	1	241	387	451	838	209	274	20	18	372	143	+30	+0	-8	-11	+18	2.9
2018	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	677	565	145	42	0	36	102	158	6	4	1	257	376	522	898	265	291	23	15	371	142	+32	+0	-9	-12	+19	3.1
2018	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	677	564	145	42	0	36	102	158	6	4	1	257	376	523	899	266	291	23	15	392	158	+44	+0	-9	-12	+19	4.4
2019	33	MLB	2 teams	—	511	432	94	20	2	15	66	134	7	6	1	218	331	377	708	160	274	26	13	316	100	-0	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.2
2019	33	MLB	2 teams	—	511	431	94	20	2	15	67	133	7	6	1	218	333	378	711	160	274	26	13	320	103	+2	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.4
2020	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	169	140	26	6	0	4	23	48	6	0	0	186	325	314	640	129	250	28	14	295	84	-3	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.4
2020	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	169	140	26	6	0	4	23	48	6	0	0	186	325	314	640	129	250	28	14	302	89	-2	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.5
2021	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	249	207	35	11	1	3	35	77	6	2	0	169	306	275	582	106	250	31	14	271	66	-10	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
2021	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	249	207	35	11	1	3	35	77	6	2	0	169	306	275	582	106	250	31	14	277	70	-8	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
2022	36	MLB	2 teams	—	249	212	57	13	2	19	29	60	5	1	1	269	370	618	988	349	281	24	12	410	172	+20	-0	+0	-3	+7	2.5
2022	36	MLB	2 teams	—	249	208	61	14	2	21	33	55	5	1	1	293	402	683	1.085	389	299	22	13	455	206	+30	-0	+0	-3	+7	3.5
2023	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	237	189	34	13	0	5	41	67	2	1	0	180	332	328	660	148	238	28	17	302	89	-3	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.1
2023	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	237	188	33	12	0	5	41	67	2	1	0	176	328	319	647	144	231	28	17	297	85	-4	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.2
2024	38	MLB	2 teams	—	174	152	34	7	0	5	18	59	2	0	2	224	314	368	682	145	322	34	10	307	93	-1	-1	+0	-3	+5	-0.0
2024	38	MLB	2 teams	—	174	150	35	7	0	6	19	57	2	0	2	233	326	400	726	167	326	33	11	322	105	+1	-1	+0	-3	+5	0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	40	MLB	STL	—	170	144	34	7	1	6	22	45	2	2	1	236	345	424	769	188	293	26	13	343	121	+4	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	41	MLB	STL	100%	80	69	15	3	0	3	10	21	1	1	0	217	325	391	716	174	282	26	12	332	112	+1	+0	-10	-1	+2	-0.8
2028	42	MLB	STL	100%	80	69	15	3	0	3	10	21	1	0	0	217	325	391	716	174	271	26	12	322	104	+0	+0	-10	-1	+2	-0.9
2027	41	MLB	STL	100%	80	69	15	3	0	3	10	21	1	1	0	217	325	391	716	174	282	26	12	324	106	+1	+0	-10	-1	+2	-0.8
2028	42	MLB	STL	100%	80	69	15	3	0	3	10	21	1	0	0	217	325	391	716	174	271	26	12	314	98	-0	+0	-10	-1	+2	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5933	4994	1287	335	28	185	794	1267	76	29	19	258	368	447	815	189	306	21	13	360	134	+228	-2	-45	-27	+168	32.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	547	141	37	3	20	87	139	8	3	2	258	367	446	813	188	307	21	13	360	134	+25	-0	-5	-3	+18	3.6
Career	—			—	7638	6483	1665	415	42	221	968	1628	96	52	28	257	362	436	798	179	307	21	13	346	123	+201	-1	-45	-46	+216	33.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	552	142	35	4	19	82	139	8	4	2	257	361	438	800	181	307	21	13	346	123	+17	+0	-4	-4	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	128	114	25	6	1	2	10	24	1	1	0	219	288	342	630	123	258	19	8	279	71	-4	+0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2009	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	105	31	6	2	0	17	13	3	2	0	295	408	390	798	95	333	10	13	364	136	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2010	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	472	396	125	26	3	12	64	88	4	11	2	316	416	487	903	172	377	19	14	396	161	+33	+1	—	—	+13	4.8
2010	24	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	128	99	28	5	2	1	26	14	2	0	1	283	441	404	845	121	321	11	20	386	154	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2011	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	19	15	1	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	67	263	133	396	67	91	21	21	214	22	-2	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.1
2011	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	535	434	130	29	3	12	84	68	8	5	4	300	422	463	885	164	328	13	16	391	158	+35	-1	—	—	+15	5.0
2011	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	15	13	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	231	333	231	564		333	27	13	274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2012	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	340	296	87	22	5	6	34	63	3	1	1	294	372	463	835	169	346	19	10	364	136	+14	-0	-7	-6	+10	1.0
2013	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	717	626	199	55	7	11	72	98	9	3	3	318	396	481	877	163	359	14	10	385	152	+42	-1	+3	+3	+20	6.9
2014	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	709	595	162	33	2	8	95	111	8	5	3	272	380	375	754	103	318	16	13	341	119	+16	-0	-3	+3	+20	3.5
2015	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	665	574	156	44	3	28	81	151	6	4	3	272	368	505	873	233	321	23	12	382	150	+38	-0	-3	+2	+19	5.7
2016	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	566	473	128	36	6	21	81	108	5	0	4	271	383	505	888	235	307	19	14	386	154	+34	-2	-2	+2	+16	5.0
2017	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	622	497	120	31	2	23	109	125	9	2	1	241	387	451	838	209	274	20	18	372	143	+30	+0	-8	-11	+18	2.9
2018	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	677	564	145	42	0	36	102	158	6	4	1	257	376	523	899	266	291	23	15	392	158	+44	+0	-9	-12	+19	4.4
2019	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	492	416	94	20	2	15	63	129	7	6	1	226	337	392	729	166	285	26	13	327	108	+5	+1	+4	+2	+14	2.6
2019	33	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	19	15	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0		211		211			21	21	147	-29	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2020	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	169	140	26	6	0	4	23	48	6	0	0	186	325	314	640	129	250	28	14	302	89	-2	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.5
2021	35	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	249	207	35	11	1	3	35	77	6	2	0	169	306	275	582	106	250	31	14	277	70	-8	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
2022	36	MLB	New York Yankees	—	154	128	39	9	0	15	19	35	5	0	0	305	414	727	1.141	422	304	23	12	476	222	+21	+0	+0	-3	+4	2.4
2022	36	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	95	80	22	5	2	6	14	20	0	1	1	275	383	613	995	338	291	21	15	422	181	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2023	37	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	237	188	33	12	0	5	41	67	2	1	0	176	328	319	647	144	231	28	17	297	85	-4	+0	-1	-4	+7	-0.2
2024	38	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	137	32	7	0	4	15	51	2	0	2	234	316	372	688	139	333	32	10	307	93	-1	-1	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
2024	38	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	17	13	3	0	0	2	4	6	0	0	0	231	412	692	1.104	462	200	35	24	462	212	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5773	4856	1257	329	28	179	774	1225	74	28	19	259	369	449	818	190	307	21	13	362	135	+227	-2	-25	-24	+164	34.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	15	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.0	29.7
	/162	664	24	14	267	360	455	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	6,084	191	31	258	363	448	-110	-35	26.8	25.8
	/162	664	21	3	258	363	448	-12.0	-3.8	2.9	pk7: 25
#2Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
#3Austin Kearnslast yr '12 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,148 PA	11	4,148	121	33	254	351	415	-42	-4	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	19	5	254	351	415	-6.8	-0.6	2.5	pk7: 16
#4Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
#5Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	10	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	13.9	13.3
	/162	664	21	4	260	343	445	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#6Matt Stairslast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,099 PA	12	4,099	163	16	255	350	454	-47	-62	13.4	12.7
	/162	664	26	3	255	350	454	-7.7	-10.0	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Carpenter (OGILVIE)	40	64	48	36	71	234/340/426	192	293	6	2	27%	13%	121	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Stairs 2008 · MLB	40	52→55	57→65	43→45	57	270/352/481	210	296	24	3	18%	11%	138	+4.4	252/344/444	192	296	24	5	22%	11%	126	+3.5	238/340/418	180	285	23	3	24%	12%	104	+0.7
●Raul Ibanez 2012 · MLB	40	50→60	53→60	47→45	51	255/316/437	183	282	21	4	18%	8%	112	+2.6	238/303/436	198	264	25	4	20%	8%	108	+2.3	226/299/432	206	246	27	3	21%	9%	100	+1.2
✕Hideki Matsui 2012 · MLB	38	52→60	51→60	39→40	58	262/341/426	164	284	19	2	16%	11%	120	+3.1	227/294/355	128	263	14	5	19%	9%	82	+0.5	147/201/210	62	176	8	0	22%	6%	1	-1.3
✕Cornelio Garcia 2006 · AAA	41	58→64	48→45	42→45	51	287/343/441	155	332	14	5	18%	8%	124	+3.4	266/330/363	97	321	7	9	18%	9%	98	+1.6	269/340/332	63	328	4	8	17%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Roberto Mendez 2013 · AAA	40	50→59	48→50	45	52	248/319/390	142	300	16	4	22%	9%	102	+1.8	243/313/352	109	301	9	7	21%	9%	89	+0.9	250/324/334	84	309	5	5	19%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Ken Griffey Jr. 2010 · MLB	40	46→55	55→70	44→45	63	241/343/432	191	254	23	3	17%	13%	122	+3.3	227/311/371	144	256	16	6	18%	11%	94	+1.3	184/252/205	21	222	0	0	16%	8%	24	-0.6
✕Guillermo Velasquez 2006 · AAA	38	56	54→45	36→30	52	286/352/465	180	333	23	4	21%	10%	134	+4.1	220/275/335	115	266	13	4	22%	7%	69	-0.4	189/241/274	85	229	9	2	22%	6%	37	-1.3
●Andres Galarraga 2002 · MLB	41	53→59	58→60	36→40	45	274/342/483	209	330	26	4	25%	7%	136	+4.2	272/339/446	174	331	21	5	23%	8%	124	+3.4	279/348/437	159	339	20	3	23%	8%	118	+1.6
✕Jayson Werth 2018 · MLB	39	46→56	52→60	44→55	55	237/326/405	169	280	20	6	23%	11%	108	+2.3	228/303/393	165	283	18	8	25%	9%	96	+1.5	181/243/349	168	227	16	0	28%	6%	57	-0.3
✕Steve Finley 2006 · MLB	41	48→56	55→60	46→50	52	251/312/439	188	259	23	10	14%	8%	111	+2.5	234/301/376	142	251	12	9	12%	9%	90	+1.0	232/305/362	131	249	7	7	10%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Ray Martinez 2009 · AAA	40	51→56	46→50	44→45	48	256/308/382	127	289	15	7	17%	6%	95	+1.4	273/319/400	127	325	13	8	19%	6%	104	+2.0	325/368/443	118	393	11	6	19%	6%	134	+1.9
✕Roberto Vizcarra 2007 · AAA	40	58→63	47→45	41→40	50	288/339/422	134	289	15	6	8%	5%	118	+3.0	254/299/375	121	260	15	6	9%	5%	89	+1.0	272/315/386	113	274	16	1	8%	5%	92	+0.8
✕Wally Joyner 2001 · MLB	39	54	46→45	47→40	60	265/348/397	132	287	13	4	13%	11%	115	+2.8	250/320/383	133	273	14	7	14%	9%	100	+1.7	243/304/351	108	260	11	4	11%	8%	83	+0.2
✕Victor Martinez 2018 · MLB	39	54→64	52→60	45→30	53	276/338/434	159	292	20	2	14%	8%	121	+3.2	257/314/387	130	274	15	3	12%	7%	98	+1.6	256/306/366	110	269	12	0	10%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Jeff Conine 2005 · MLB	39	55→63	50→55	45→50	53	274/332/437	162	291	17	6	13%	8%	119	+3.1	273/337/403	130	304	11	5	13%	9%	111	+2.5	270/337/388	118	302	9	4	13%	9%	102	+1.3
✕Ruben Sierra 2005 · MLB	39	49→54	54→60	48→40	51	256/311/432	177	269	23	5	16%	8%	109	+2.4	237/293/393	156	274	18	5	20%	7%	92	+1.2	227/265/366	140	276	13	0	23%	5%	68	-0.1
●Paul O'Neill 2001 · MLB	38	54→56	49→60	44→55	53	272/330/416	144	295	17	13	15%	8%	113	+2.6	265/328/440	175	275	21	18	12%	8%	118	+3.0	265/331/456	191	266	22	23	10%	9%	118	+2.8
✕Mario Valdez 2013 · AAA	38	52	52→50	46→40	46	265/313/432	167	300	21	5	20%	6%	110	+2.4	238/281/336	98	317	10	7	27%	6%	70	-0.3	226/265/251	25	326	1	2	30%	5%	39	-0.5
✕Luis Gonzalez 2008 · MLB	40	55→60	50→65	45	60	273/355/440	168	282	17	5	11%	11%	129	+3.7	260/336/414	154	278	15	6	12%	10%	115	+2.7	257/336/408	150	275	12	2	11%	11%	109	+1.5
✕A.J. Pierzynski 2016 · MLB	39	56→63	45→55	36→40	46	274/314/400	125	293	13	2	12%	4%	102	+1.8	244/287/360	116	265	11	5	12%	5%	79	+0.3	216/243/300	84	237	5	2	11%	2%	41	-1.0