Kyle Schwarber

LF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 34 L/R 5'11" / 229 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 11.500 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBPHI	692	.248/.370/.485	38	5	132	3.4
2025	32	MLBPHI	724	.240/.365/.563	56	10	147	4.8
2026	33	MLBPHI	701	.232/.357/.503	45	3	130	3.3
2027PROJ	34	MLBPHI	568	.240/.357/.543	42	5	143	2.8
2028PROJ	35	MLBPHI	480	.228/.344/.513	34	1	132	1.1
2029PROJ	36	MLBPHI	404	.215/.331/.481	27	0	120	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2030Service11.500First FA2031

2027Ext$20M2028Ext$20M2029Ext$20M2030Ext$30M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%90

xwOBA90

Avg EV90

Bat Spd90

Speed12

Form.240/.366/.490 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .235/.350/.521

CompsBrandon Belt (age 34) · Max Muncy (age 33) · Carlos Pena (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 134143vR 146

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .357 / .543

PA568

HR42

SB5

K%29

BB%14

BABIP268

ISO305

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$57M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

440.246

POWER

Barrel%

9017.4

Avg EV

9093.4

Bat Spd

9076.3

SPEED

Sprint

1225.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%▲▲17% over 60 PA (45d) · proj 29%

BB%16%▲▲17% over 123 PA (60d) · proj 14%

ISO.250▼▼.192 over 99 AB (60d) · proj .287

HR/BB10.3%▼▼7.0% over 71 BBE (60d) · proj 12.4%

BABIP.259▼.182 over 66 BIP (60d) · proj .265

SLASH.240/.366/.490·proj .235/.350/.521

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1532 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

577

955

—

wRC+

151

141

◀L

wOBA

392

376

◀L

ISO

258

298

▶R

BABIP

317

241

◀◀L

28.1%

28.5%

—

BB%

13.3%

15.1%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$20M	+2.8	$24M	+$4M
2028	Ext	$20M	+1.1	$8M	-$10M
2029	Ext	$20M	+0.2	$0.7M	-$16M
2030	Ext	$30M	—	—	—
Totals		$90M		$31M	-$45M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$45M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	21	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	191	159	48	9	1	10	26	38	1	4	0	302	403	560	963	258	328	20	14	409	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A	Kane County Cougars	—	96	83	30	8	0	4	11	17	2	1	1	361	448	602	1.050	241	419	18	11	459	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	273	232	57	6	1	16	36	77	4	3	3	246	357	487	844	241	293	28	13	372	138	+12	-1	-3	-6	+6	0.8
2015	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	67	60	20	7	1	3	7	23	0	0	0	333	403	633	1.036	300	500	34	10	446	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	243	197	63	10	1	13	42	49	1	1	0	320	442	579	1.020	259	365	20	17	440	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	486	422	89	16	1	30	59	150	5	1	1	211	315	467	782	256	244	31	12	345	120	+12	-0	-6	-6	+11	1.1
2017	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	44	35	12	1	0	4	8	12	1	0	0	343	477	714	1.192	371	421	27	18	506	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	510	428	102	14	3	26	78	140	1	4	3	238	357	467	824	229	288	27	15	364	115	+9	-0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	610	529	132	29	3	38	70	156	5	2	3	250	343	531	874	282	276	26	11	377	139	+28	-1	-9	-7	+13	2.5
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	188	308	393	701	204	219	29	13	317	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	106	19	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	266	375	554	929	288	306	27	14	403	155	+31	-0	-10	-5	+10	2.6
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	126	21	3	46	86	200	4	10	1	218	324	504	828	286	240	30	13	360	122	+17	+2	-17	-7	+14	1.0
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	585	115	19	1	47	126	215	6	0	2	197	344	474	818	277	209	30	18	361	121	+18	-1	-18	-8	+16	0.7
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	573	142	22	0	38	106	197	5	5	3	248	370	485	855	237	301	28	15	375	132	+26	-0	-1	-7	+15	3.4
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	604	145	23	2	56	108	197	11	10	2	240	365	563	928	323	253	27	15	401	147	+40	+1	-2	-8	+16	4.8
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	581	135	20	1	45	105	220	8	3	1	232	357	503	859	270	280	31	15	374	130	+25	+0	-1	-8	+15	3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6080	5121	1185	195	15	385	868	1745	58	40	20	231	349	501	850	269	265	29	14	371	137	+271	+0	-72	-69	+132	26.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	191	166	42	8	1	9	19	56	1	4	0	253	333	476	809	223	295	29	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	96	87	26	7	0	3	7	24	2	1	1	299	365	483	847	184	375	25	7	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	273	233	58	6	1	17	35	77	4	3	3	249	357	502	859	253	293	28	13	372	138	+12	-1	-3	-6	+6	0.8
2015	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	67	62	16	5	1	2	5	28	0	0	0	258	313	468	781	210	448	42	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	243	209	55	9	1	10	30	62	1	1	0	263	358	459	818	196	319	26	12	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	486	423	90	16	1	31	58	150	5	1	1	213	315	475	790	262	244	31	12	346	120	+12	-0	-6	-6	+11	1.1
2017	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	44	38	12	1	0	4	5	14	1	0	0	316	409	658	1.067	342	385	32	11	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	510	448	103	14	3	27	58	140	1	4	3	230	320	455	775	225	288	27	11	338	115	+9	-0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2019	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	610	534	132	28	3	39	65	156	5	2	3	247	334	530	864	283	276	26	11	373	139	+28	-1	-9	-7	+13	2.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	224	192	36	6	0	11	29	66	3	1	0	188	304	391	694	203	219	29	13	316	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	471	400	104	17	0	33	63	127	6	1	1	260	369	550	919	290	306	27	13	398	155	+31	-0	-10	-5	+10	2.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	580	124	22	3	43	83	200	4	10	1	214	316	484	801	271	240	30	12	348	122	+17	+2	-17	-7	+14	1.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	590	112	19	1	44	121	215	6	0	2	190	333	449	782	259	209	30	17	347	121	+18	-1	-18	-8	+16	0.7
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	577	140	23	0	35	102	197	5	5	3	243	361	464	826	222	301	28	15	363	132	+26	-0	-1	-7	+15	3.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	610	142	24	2	52	102	197	11	10	2	233	353	534	887	302	253	27	14	385	147	+40	+1	-2	-8	+16	4.8
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	588	133	21	1	42	99	220	8	3	1	226	345	480	825	253	280	31	14	360	130	+25	+0	-1	-8	+15	3.3
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	287	254	68	15	1	12	25	81	3	5	1	268	340	476	817	209	337	28	9	352	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	287	242	78	17	1	14	37	55	3	5	1	322	418	574	993	252	360	19	13	426	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	583	503	130	20	3	30	71	167	5	4	3	258	356	489	845	231	324	29	12	364	132	+22	-0	-3	-6	+13	2.6
2015	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	583	489	140	23	3	32	85	149	5	4	3	286	397	542	939	256	347	26	15	408	132	+22	-0	-3	-6	+13	2.6
2017	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	530	461	101	16	1	35	63	164	6	1	1	219	321	486	807	267	252	31	12	354	126	+16	-0	-6	-6	+11	1.6
2017	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	530	457	101	17	1	34	67	162	6	1	1	221	328	486	814	265	257	31	13	358	126	+16	-0	-6	-6	+11	1.6
2018	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	510	448	103	14	3	27	58	140	1	4	3	230	320	455	775	225	269	27	11	338	115	+9	-0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2018	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	510	428	102	14	3	26	78	140	1	4	3	238	357	467	824	229	288	27	15	364	115	+9	-0	-3	-5	+11	1.2
2019	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	610	534	132	28	3	39	65	156	5	2	3	247	334	530	864	283	270	26	11	373	139	+28	-1	-9	-7	+13	2.5
2019	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	610	529	132	29	3	38	70	156	5	2	3	250	343	531	874	282	276	26	11	377	139	+28	-1	-9	-7	+13	2.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	224	192	36	6	0	11	29	66	3	1	0	188	304	391	694	203	217	29	13	316	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	188	308	393	701	204	219	29	13	317	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+5	0.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	471	400	104	17	0	33	63	127	6	1	1	260	369	550	919	290	293	27	13	398	155	+31	-0	-10	-5	+10	2.6
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	106	19	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	266	375	554	929	288	306	27	14	403	155	+31	-0	-10	-5	+10	2.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	580	124	22	3	43	83	200	4	10	1	214	316	484	801	271	239	30	12	348	122	+17	+2	-17	-7	+14	1.0
2022	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	126	21	3	46	86	200	4	10	1	218	324	504	828	286	240	30	13	360	122	+17	+2	-17	-7	+14	1.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	590	112	19	1	44	121	215	6	0	2	190	333	449	782	259	204	30	17	347	121	+18	-1	-18	-8	+16	0.7
2023	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	585	115	19	1	47	126	215	6	0	2	197	344	474	818	277	209	30	18	361	121	+18	-1	-18	-8	+16	0.7
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	577	140	23	0	35	102	197	5	5	3	243	361	464	826	222	297	28	15	363	132	+26	-0	-1	-7	+15	3.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	573	142	22	0	38	106	197	5	5	3	248	370	485	855	237	301	28	15	375	132	+26	-0	-1	-7	+15	3.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	610	142	24	2	52	102	197	11	10	2	233	353	534	887	302	249	27	14	385	147	+40	+1	-2	-8	+16	4.8
2025	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	604	145	23	2	56	108	197	11	10	2	240	365	563	928	323	253	27	15	401	147	+40	+1	-2	-8	+16	4.8
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	588	133	21	1	42	99	220	8	3	1	226	345	480	825	253	274	31	14	360	130	+25	+0	-1	-8	+15	3.3
2026	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	581	135	20	1	45	105	220	8	3	1	232	357	503	859	270	280	31	15	374	130	+25	+0	-1	-8	+15	3.3
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	287	257	68	15	1	12	25	81	3	5	1	265	340	471	811	206	322	28	9	352	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	583	502	130	20	3	30	71	167	5	4	3	259	356	490	846	231	322	29	12	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	530	456	101	16	1	35	63	164	6	1	1	221	321	491	812	270	256	31	12	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	510	446	103	14	3	27	58	140	1	4	3	231	320	457	777	226	288	27	11	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	610	535	132	28	3	39	65	156	5	2	3	247	334	529	863	282	276	26	11	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	224	190	36	6	0	11	29	66	3	1	0	189	304	395	698	205	219	29	13	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	104	17	0	33	63	127	6	1	1	261	369	551	920	291	306	27	13	398	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	124	22	3	43	83	200	4	10	1	215	316	487	803	272	240	30	12	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	587	112	19	1	44	121	215	6	0	2	191	333	451	785	261	209	30	17	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	580	140	23	0	35	102	197	5	5	3	241	361	462	823	221	301	28	15	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	605	142	24	2	52	102	197	11	10	2	235	353	539	892	304	253	27	14	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	588	133	21	1	42	99	220	8	3	1	226	345	480	825	253	280	31	14	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	580	140	23	0	35	102	197	5	5	3	241	361	462	823	221	301	28	15	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	605	142	24	2	52	102	197	11	10	2	235	353	539	892	304	253	27	14	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	701	588	133	21	1	42	99	220	8	3	1	226	345	480	825	253	280	31	14	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	621	522	121	19	1	42	87	182	7	5	2	235	353	521	874	286	265	29	14	379	143	+31	+0	-9	-7	+13	2.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	568	476	115	17	1	42	80	167	7	5	2	240	357	543	901	303	268	29	14	389	143	+29	+0	-8	-6	+12	2.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	480	406	90	14	1	31	66	145	5	1	1	222	340	492	831	269	252	30	14	363	132	+18	-0	-12	-5	+10	1.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	404	342	72	10	1	25	55	125	4	0	1	209	326	461	787	252	240	31	14	346	120	+10	-0	-12	-4	+9	0.2
2030	37	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	321	272	54	7	0	19	43	102	3	0	0	197	313	430	743	233	228	32	13	329	109	+3	+0	-12	-3	+7	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	480	406	92	13	1	34	66	145	5	1	1	228	344	513	857	285	254	30	14	372	132	+18	-0	-12	-5	+10	1.1
2029	36	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	404	342	74	10	1	27	55	125	4	0	1	215	331	481	812	267	242	31	14	355	120	+10	-0	-12	-4	+9	0.2
2030	37	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	321	272	55	7	0	20	43	102	3	0	0	202	317	449	766	247	229	32	13	337	109	+3	+0	-12	-3	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7285	6141	1406	225	17	466	1032	2117	70	41	22	229	346	499	845	270	261	29	14	369	130	+302	-1	-107	-82	+158	27.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	548	126	20	2	42	92	189	6	4	2	230	346	504	850	274	263	29	14	369	130	+27	-0	-10	-7	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	8494	7233	1653	274	21	517	1125	2469	82	52	25	229	339	487	826	258	265	29	13	360	130	+331	-0	-115	-88	+170	30.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	554	127	21	2	40	86	189	6	4	2	229	340	491	831	262	264	29	13	360	130	+27	-0	-10	-7	+14	2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAIowa Cubs · 44 PAwOBA .488 → .437 (−51)K% 27.3% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.083	×1.290	—	—	32.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.91%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×1.048	12.26%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.33%
Singles /BIP	30.43%	÷0.991	×0.900	—	×1.048	28.96%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.056	×0.810	—	×1.048	3.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.810	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	17.39%	÷0.899	×0.780	—	×1.048	15.81%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 108, K 117, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .488 → .437; ISO .371 → .339; BABIP .421 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AATennessee Smokies · 243 PAwOBA .431 → .359 (−72)K% 20.2% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.16%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.87%	÷0.959	×0.680	—	×1.042	12.47%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.36%
Singles /BIP	26.35%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	23.39%
Doubles /BIP	6.76%	÷0.998	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	6.10%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.058	×0.880	×0.950	×1.042	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	8.78%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×1.042	6.99%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 112, K 93, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .431 → .359; ISO .259 → .215; BABIP .365 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 67 PAwOBA .434 → .348 (−85)K% 34.3% → 42.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.33%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	42.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.45%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.82%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷1.008	×0.900	—	×1.050	22.81%
Doubles /BIP	18.92%	÷0.984	×0.810	—	×1.050	16.35%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷0.948	×0.810	—	×1.050	2.42%
Home runs /BIP	8.11%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .434 → .348; ISO .300 → .240; BABIP .500 → .448. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Daytona Cubs · 191 PAwOBA .408 → .348 (−60)K% 19.9% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷0.959	×1.420	—	—	29.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.09%	÷1.044	×0.750	—	×1.027	9.66%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.50%
Singles /BIP	23.14%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	20.87%
Doubles /BIP	7.44%	÷1.006	×0.960	×0.950	×1.027	6.92%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷0.986	×0.810	×0.950	×1.027	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	8.26%	÷0.930	×0.880	—	×1.027	8.03%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 97, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .408 → .348; ISO .258 → .235; BABIP .328 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AKane County Cougars · 96 PAwOBA .444 → .361 (−83)K% 17.7% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.71%	÷0.952	×1.360	—	—	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.42%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.90%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.65%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.993	×1.015	24.57%
Doubles /BIP	12.12%	÷0.914	×0.830	×0.993	×1.015	11.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.144	×0.910	×0.993	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷1.029	×0.800	—	×1.015	4.78%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .444 → .361; ISO .241 → .195; BABIP .419 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	11.8	7,853	498	46	230	344	500	-89	-103	45.6	38.3
/162	664	42	4	-7.5	-8.7	3.9	pk7: 31
#1Mark Teixeiralast yr '16 AS×3GG×5SS×3 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,029 PA	12.1	8,029	409	26	268	360	509	-143	-74	42.1	38.1
/162	664	34	2	-11.9	-6.1	3.5	pk7: 34
#2Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	12.2	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	42.0	34.4
/162	664	35	5	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#3José Bautistalast yr '18 ASGG×4SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,213 PA	10.9	7,213	344	69	248	362	476	-56	-94	36.0	34.1
/162	664	32	6	-5.1	-8.6	3.3	pk7: 32
#4Greg Luzinski'70-'84 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,514 PA	11.3	7,514	307	37	271*	360*	514*	-113	-63	33.3	29.5
/162	664	27	3	-10.0	-5.6	2.9	pk7: 26
#5Danny Tartabull'84-'97 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,842 PA	8.8	5,842	262	37	267*	362*	510*	-82	-62	30.1	27.2
/162	664	30	4	-9.4	-7.0	3.4	pk7: 24
#6Jay Buhner'87-'01 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,927 PA	8.9	5,927	310	6	245*	347*	496*	-64	-45	28.0	24.9
/162	664	35	1	-7.2	-5.0	3.1	pk7: 22

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Schwarber (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	233/350/516	284	265	39	5	29%	14%	143	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	50→60	67→65	44→50	57	272/368/539	268	308	35	5	24%	12%	153	+5.2	251/352/469	218	329	27	4	30%	13%	132	+3.6	235/348/431	195	325	24	1	32%	14%	123	+1.7
●Max Muncy 2024 · MLB	33	38→47	62→65	42→45	60	215/332/445	229	239	30	3	25%	14%	120	+2.8	234/345/460	226	274	29	4	25%	13%	127	+3.3	242/351/469	227	283	29	4	25%	13%	135	+2.8
●Carlos Pena 2010 · MLB	32	42→48	69→70	41→45	59	239/355/519	279	271	37	3	27%	14%	144	+4.5	213/333/437	224	253	29	4	28%	14%	118	+2.6	202/330/404	202	245	26	3	28%	15%	111	+2.1
●Matt Carpenter 2019 · MLB	33	47→57	62→65	43→45	62	250/359/492	242	278	29	4	22%	14%	139	+4.2	221/332/400	179	276	20	6	26%	13%	109	+2.0	220/332/438	218	271	26	2	28%	13%	118	+1.0
●Russell Branyan 2010 · MLB	34	45→43	66→70	49→45	49	246/330/500	253	302	35	5	30%	10%	131	+3.6	240/321/474	234	294	32	5	29%	10%	122	+3.0	229/314/467	237	274	33	2	29%	11%	119	+1.1
●Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	44→51	61→65	38→45	57	241/336/472	231	260	29	3	21%	12%	127	+3.3	240/313/455	215	267	29	7	22%	9%	115	+2.4	256/317/483	227	273	31	5	19%	7%	124	+3.0
✕Lucas Duda 2018 · MLB	32	40→50	65	42→30	51	230/318/481	250	260	33	2	26%	10%	122	+3.0	220/292/405	185	275	24	3	29%	8%	96	+1.0	207/275/363	156	265	21	1	30%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Josh Willingham 2013 · MLB	34	47→53	63→65	46→45	55	255/351/495	240	288	31	5	24%	11%	138	+4.1	228/340/420	192	282	24	4	26%	12%	117	+2.6	207/334/376	169	264	21	2	28%	13%	106	+1.3
✕Matt Joyce 2018 · MLB	33	45→52	59→60	43→50	60	240/342/458	218	267	27	5	22%	13%	126	+3.2	249/348/420	171	296	20	4	21%	13%	119	+2.7	250/355/382	132	307	15	1	22%	14%	114	+0.9
●Ray Lankford 2001 · MLB	34	49	63→60	42→45	57	255/362/494	240	332	31	8	31%	14%	141	+4.3	243/336/444	201	322	23	10	29%	12%	120	+2.8	238/330/425	188	310	20	9	28%	11%	114	+1.2
✕Eric Thames 2020 · MLB	33	46→54	63→65	49→45	49	244/332/488	244	310	31	7	31%	10%	129	+3.4	233/312/409	176	322	21	7	32%	9%	103	+1.6	201/292/313	112	277	13	4	30%	9%	76	-0.1
✕Kole Calhoun 2021 · MLB	33	40→50	62→60	45→50	53	228/315/457	229	250	31	5	24%	10%	116	+2.5	222/293/393	171	270	22	5	26%	8%	93	+0.8	211/274/353	142	263	16	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Justin Smoak 2020 · MLB	33	43→53	59→65	40→30	60	234/341/447	213	262	27	1	23%	14%	123	+3.0	226/317/414	188	274	23	5	26%	11%	107	+1.8	179/254/373	193	222	25	0	32%	8%	76	-0.1
●Jorge Soler 2024 · MLB	32	43→52	64→70	41→45	53	243/328/484	240	274	33	2	25%	10%	127	+3.3	234/321/435	201	289	25	2	27%	10%	113	+2.3	221/313/403	182	282	21	0	28%	10%	103	+1.1
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2004 · MLB	34	47→54	61→70	45	54	256/340/486	230	273	29	5	19%	10%	132	+3.6	266/341/515	249	277	34	3	18%	10%	139	+4.1	270/341/506	236	275	33	2	16%	9%	137	+3.7
●Josh Donaldson 2020 · MLB	34	48→58	64→70	44→50	62	259/369/509	250	293	32	5	24%	14%	147	+4.7	244/348/460	216	284	27	3	23%	13%	128	+3.4	228/329/415	187	271	23	1	24%	12%	112	+1.5
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	50→46	61→65	45→50	57	264/358/497	233	300	28	7	22%	12%	140	+4.2	244/316/416	172	288	18	7	21%	8%	106	+1.8	229/294/374	145	276	14	6	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Tony Clark 2006 · MLB	34	47→56	69→70	47→30	47	265/325/539	274	296	38	2	26%	8%	139	+4.1	248/317/471	223	288	32	3	25%	9%	120	+2.8	220/312/412	192	260	28	0	27%	12%	105	+0.5
★Edwin Encarnación 2017 · MLB	34	47→57	67→70	45→50	58	263/352/526	263	265	36	3	18%	11%	145	+4.6	251/349/494	243	267	34	3	21%	12%	137	+4.0	244/348/488	243	257	35	2	21%	13%	136	+3.8
●David Justice 2001 · MLB	35	50→54	69→60	45→40	60	281/366/561	280	275	38	4	15%	12%	158	+5.5	258/348/451	193	278	24	5	16%	12%	126	+3.2	250/346/412	163	275	19	3	16%	13%	117	+2.0

Kyle Schwarber

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps