Kyle Schwarber — OGILVIE

Kyle SchwarberLF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 33 L/R 5'11" / 229 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 10.500 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION414 act + 276 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 168150vR 143

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .358 / .554

PA276

HR21

K%32

BB%14

BABIP274

ISO316

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 53 / POW 70

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT53

Whiff%

649.5%

xwOBA

900.389

POWER70

Barrel%

9018.5

Avg EV

9093.8

Bat Spd

9076.3

EYE60

Chase%

9019.0%

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1532 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

577

955

—

wRC+

158

146

◀L

wOBA

392

376

◀L

ISO

258

298

▶R

BABIP

317

241

◀◀L

28.1%

28.5%

—

BB%

13.3%

15.1%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$8M	+2.2	$17M	+$9M
2027	Ext	$20M	+2.7	$20M	+$2M
2028	Ext	$20M	+1.7	$12M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$20M	+0.8	$3M	-$12M
2030	Ext	$30M	—	—	—
Totals		$98M		$52M	-$25M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$25M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	287	256	67	15	1	13	23	84	3	5	1	262	330	480	810	219	329	29	8	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	287	242	78	17	1	14	37	55	3	5	1	322	418	574	993	252	360	19	13	426	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB	3 teams	—	583	502	125	19	3	29	72	172	5	4	3	249	349	472	821	223	316	30	12	353	128	+19	-0	-3	-6	+17	2.6
2015	22	MLB	3 teams	—	583	489	140	23	3	32	85	149	5	4	3	286	397	542	939	256	347	26	15	408	171	+47	-0	-3	-6	+17	5.4
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	—	530	460	99	16	1	33	64	163	6	1	1	215	319	470	788	254	250	31	12	345	122	+13	-0	-6	-6	+15	1.7
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	—	530	457	101	17	1	34	67	162	6	1	1	221	328	486	814	265	257	31	13	358	132	+19	-0	-6	-6	+15	2.3
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	510	428	101	14	3	25	78	140	1	4	3	236	355	458	813	222	287	27	15	329	110	+6	-0	-3	-5	+14	1.2
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	510	428	102	14	3	26	78	140	1	4	3	238	357	467	824	229	288	27	15	364	136	+21	-0	-3	-5	+14	2.7
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	610	529	130	28	3	37	70	156	5	2	3	246	339	520	859	274	272	26	11	362	135	+24	-1	-9	-7	+17	2.6
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	610	529	132	29	3	38	70	156	5	2	3	250	343	531	874	282	276	26	11	377	146	+32	-1	-9	-7	+17	3.3
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	188	308	393	701	204	219	29	13	307	93	-2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	188	308	393	701	204	219	29	13	317	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	102	17	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	256	367	539	906	283	289	27	14	387	154	+29	-0	-10	-5	+13	2.8
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	106	19	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	266	375	554	929	288	306	27	14	403	167	+35	-0	-10	-5	+13	3.4
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	122	20	3	44	86	200	4	10	1	211	318	485	803	274	233	30	13	347	124	+18	+2	-17	-7	+19	1.5
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	126	21	3	46	86	200	4	10	1	218	324	504	828	286	240	30	13	360	134	+26	+2	-17	-7	+19	2.3
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	585	112	18	1	45	126	215	6	0	2	191	340	456	797	265	204	30	18	346	123	+18	-1	-18	-8	+20	1.2
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	585	115	19	1	47	126	215	6	0	2	197	344	474	818	277	209	30	18	361	134	+28	-1	-18	-8	+20	2.2
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	573	139	21	0	37	106	197	5	5	3	243	365	473	838	230	294	28	15	360	134	+27	-0	-1	-7	+20	3.9
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	573	142	22	0	38	106	197	5	5	3	248	370	485	855	237	301	28	15	375	145	+35	-0	-1	-7	+20	4.7
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	604	141	22	2	54	108	197	11	10	2	233	360	545	904	311	246	27	15	384	152	+43	+1	-2	-8	+21	5.5
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	604	145	23	2	56	108	197	11	10	2	240	365	563	928	323	253	27	15	401	165	+53	+1	-2	-8	+21	6.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	33	MLB	PHI	—	414	350	89	9	1	32	59	144	4	2	0	254	368	560	928	306	326	35	14	393	159	+27	+0	-1	-4	+12	3.5
YTD	33	MLB	PHI	—	414	350	89	9	1	32	59	144	4	2	0	254	368	560	928	306	326	35	14	402	166	+31	+0	-1	-4	+12	3.9
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	100%	276	231	55	8	1	21	40	87	3	2	0	238	358	554	912	316	273	32	14	390	156	+18	+0	-4	-3	+8	1.9
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	100%	276	231	56	8	1	21	40	87	3	2	0	242	361	558	920	316	276	32	14	385	153	+17	+0	-4	-3	+8	1.8
FULL	33	MLB	PHI	—	690	581	145	17	2	53	99	231	7	4	0	250	365	559	925	310	308	33	14	390	156	+44	+1	-5	-7	+20	5.3
TOT	33	MLB	PHI	—	690	581	144	17	2	53	99	231	7	4	0	248	364	558	922	310	304	33	14	391	158	+45	+1	-5	-7	+20	5.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	PHI	100%	594	497	110	15	1	43	86	192	6	3	1	221	343	515	858	294	253	32	14	374	145	+30	+0	-13	-6	+17	2.8
2028	35	MLB	PHI	100%	536	449	95	12	1	38	77	177	5	2	0	212	333	497	830	285	242	33	14	362	135	+21	+0	-13	-6	+15	1.8
2029	36	MLB	PHI	100%	473	397	81	10	1	32	68	160	5	1	0	204	328	476	804	272	231	34	14	349	125	+13	+0	-13	-5	+13	0.9
2030	37	MLB	PHI	100%	406	342	65	7	1	26	57	141	4	1	0	190	313	444	757	254	220	35	14	334	114	+6	+0	-13	-4	+12	0.1
2031	38	MLB	PHI	100%	334	282	51	5	1	20	46	118	3	0	0	181	302	418	721	238	211	35	14	320	103	+1	+0	-12	-4	+9	-0.5
2032	39	MLB	PHI	100%	258	219	37	4	0	14	35	92	2	0	0	169	289	379	668	210	201	36	14	306	92	-2	+0	-12	-3	+7	-1.0
2027	34	MLB	PHI	100%	594	497	111	15	1	44	86	192	6	3	1	223	345	523	868	300	255	32	14	370	141	+28	+0	-13	-6	+17	2.6
2028	35	MLB	PHI	100%	536	449	96	12	1	38	77	177	5	2	0	214	335	499	834	285	244	33	14	358	132	+19	+0	-13	-6	+15	1.6
2029	36	MLB	PHI	100%	473	397	81	10	1	32	68	160	5	1	0	204	328	476	804	272	234	34	14	344	122	+12	+0	-13	-5	+13	0.7
2030	37	MLB	PHI	100%	406	342	65	7	1	26	57	141	4	1	0	190	313	444	757	254	222	35	14	330	111	+5	+0	-13	-4	+12	-0.0
2031	38	MLB	PHI	100%	334	282	51	5	1	20	46	118	3	0	0	181	302	418	721	238	212	35	14	316	100	+0	+0	-12	-4	+9	-0.7
2032	39	MLB	PHI	100%	258	219	38	4	0	15	35	92	2	0	0	174	293	397	690	224	202	36	14	302	89	-3	+0	-12	-3	+7	-1.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	8256	6957	1548	236	20	536	1172	2492	78	46	20	223	341	493	834	271	255	30	14	363	136	+333	+1	-152	-92	+234	33.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	123	19	2	42	92	196	6	4	2	224	342	496	838	272	259	30	14	363	136	+26	+0	-12	-7	+18	2.6
Career	—			—	8897	7521	1668	257	23	554	1236	2684	83	52	21	222	338	483	821	261	257	30	14	354	129	+289	+2	-152	-95	+252	30.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	549	122	19	2	40	90	196	6	4	2	222	337	483	820	260	259	30	14	354	129	+21	+0	-11	-7	+18	2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	191	159	48	9	1	10	26	38	1	4	0	302	403	560	963	258	328	20	14	409	171	+15	+1	—	—	+5	2.2
2014	21	A	Kane County Cougars	—	96	83	30	8	0	4	11	17	2	1	1	361	448	602	1.050	241	419	18	11	459	209	+12	-0	—	—	+3	1.5
2015	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	273	232	57	6	1	16	36	77	4	3	3	246	357	487	844	241	293	28	13	372	143	+13	-1	-3	-6	+8	1.1
2015	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	67	60	20	7	1	3	7	23	0	0	0	333	403	633	1.036	300	500	34	10	446	199	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2015	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	243	197	63	10	1	13	42	49	1	1	0	320	442	579	1.020	259	365	20	17	440	195	+26	+0	—	—	+7	3.4
2017	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	486	422	89	16	1	30	59	150	5	1	1	211	315	467	782	256	244	31	12	345	122	+12	-0	-6	-6	+14	1.4
2017	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	44	35	12	1	0	4	8	12	1	0	0	343	477	714	1.192	371	421	27	18	506	245	+7	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	510	428	102	14	3	26	78	140	1	4	3	238	357	467	824	229	288	27	15	364	136	+21	-0	-3	-5	+14	2.7
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	610	529	132	29	3	38	70	156	5	2	3	250	343	531	874	282	276	26	11	377	146	+32	-1	-9	-7	+17	3.3
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	188	308	393	701	204	219	29	13	317	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	471	399	106	19	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	266	375	554	929	288	306	27	14	403	167	+35	-0	-10	-5	+13	3.4
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	669	577	126	21	3	46	86	200	4	10	1	218	324	504	828	286	240	30	13	360	134	+26	+2	-17	-7	+19	2.3
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	720	585	115	19	1	47	126	215	6	0	2	197	344	474	818	277	209	30	18	361	134	+28	-1	-18	-8	+20	2.2
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	692	573	142	22	0	38	106	197	5	5	3	248	370	485	855	237	301	28	15	375	145	+35	-0	-1	-7	+20	4.7
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	724	604	145	23	2	56	108	197	11	10	2	240	365	563	928	323	253	27	15	401	165	+53	+1	-2	-8	+21	6.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5379	4540	1050	175	14	340	763	1525	50	37	19	231	348	501	849	269	263	28	14	371	142	+256	-0	-71	-61	+152	28.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons	18	9,082	596	53	226	341	501	-112	-124	51.6	41.6
	/162	664	44	4	226	341	501	-8.2	-9.0	3.8	pk7: 32
#1Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	16	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	41.9	34.3
	/162	664	35	5	260	350	496	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#2José Bautistalast yr '18 ASGG×4SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,213 PA	14	7,213	344	69	248	362	476	-56	-94	36.0	34.0
	/162	664	32	6	248	362	476	-5.1	-8.6	3.3	pk7: 32
#3Adam Dunnlast yr '14 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,328 PA	14	8,328	462	63	237	364	490	-110	-208	31.7	28.9
#3Adam Dunnlast yr '14 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,328 PA	/162	664	37	5	237	364	490	-8.8	-16.6	2.5	pk7: 26
#4Pat Burrelllast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,520 PA	12	6,520	292	7	253	361	472	-61	-80	31.0	28.0
	/162	664	30	1	253	361	472	-6.3	-8.1	3.2	pk7: 25
#5Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	12	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
	/162	664	26	1	249	351	447	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#6Richie Sexsonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,885 PA	9	4,885	264	10	260	348	503	-64	-76	21.4	23.0
	/162	664	36	1	260	348	503	-8.8	-10.3	2.9	pk7: 25

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Schwarber (OGILVIE)	33	36→53	50→70	40	60	248/364/558	310	304	53	4	33%	14%	158	+5.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Carlos Pena 2010 · MLB	32	43→49	69→70	41→45	62	244/370/528	284	279	37	3	27%	15%	157	+5.7	215/341/441	226	258	29	4	28%	15%	124	+3.4	203/336/407	204	247	26	3	28%	15%	109	+2.3
✕Eric Thames 2020 · MLB	33	47→53	66→70	49→45	51	251/345/511	260	316	33	7	31%	11%	144	+4.8	236/318/418	182	329	22	7	33%	9%	109	+2.4	203/300/317	114	282	13	4	30%	10%	71	-0.1
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	52→61	67→65	44→50	59	278/378/551	273	318	35	5	24%	13%	167	+6.3	254/358/475	221	335	27	4	30%	13%	140	+4.5	238/353/435	197	330	24	1	32%	14%	124	+2.0
●Matt Carpenter 2019 · MLB	33	48→58	61→60	43→45	65	254/374/493	239	288	27	4	22%	15%	150	+5.2	223/339/398	175	283	19	6	26%	13%	113	+2.6	223/337/447	224	275	27	2	28%	13%	121	+1.2
●Adam Dunn 2011 · MLB	31	49→51	66→70	39→50	60	259/372/525	265	316	34	2	28%	14%	157	+5.7	211/326/422	211	279	28	2	33%	14%	114	+2.7	211/329/436	225	265	32	1	32%	14%	112	+2.5
✕Lucas Duda 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	66→65	42→30	54	232/328/490	257	262	33	2	26%	11%	132	+4.0	222/299/411	189	280	24	3	29%	9%	99	+1.7	209/281/368	158	271	21	1	30%	7%	77	+0.1
●Russell Branyan 2009 · MLB	33	46→45	65→70	49→45	50	247/334/499	252	316	34	8	32%	11%	136	+4.2	246/334/494	248	306	33	5	30%	11%	135	+4.2	238/332/487	249	289	34	3	30%	11%	127	+2.2
●Max Muncy 2022 · MLB	31	44→48	67→70	46→45	62	251/367/519	268	267	36	4	22%	14%	154	+5.5	225/345/466	241	254	31	3	25%	15%	132	+4.0	231/357/488	257	258	35	3	25%	15%	137	+3.1
★Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	45→52	62→65	38→45	60	245/349/480	235	266	29	3	21%	13%	137	+4.3	243/326/462	219	272	29	7	22%	10%	124	+3.4	259/327/489	229	278	31	5	19%	8%	124	+3.3
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	50→46	61→65	45→50	57	264/359/498	234	301	28	7	22%	12%	146	+4.9	246/320/419	173	291	18	7	21%	8%	110	+2.4	232/302/379	147	281	14	6	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Richie Sexson 2007 · MLB	32	49→54	65	41→30	55	263/348/515	252	299	32	2	24%	11%	146	+4.9	232/320/429	197	267	26	3	23%	11%	112	+2.6	210/306/390	179	236	24	1	23%	11%	94	+0.9
★Carlos Delgado 2005 · MLB	33	52→62	66→70	41→30	63	278/394/545	267	302	34	2	20%	14%	171	+6.7	275/372/531	256	301	32	2	20%	11%	160	+5.9	271/364/518	247	295	31	1	20%	11%	140	+4.6
★George Springer 2022 · MLB	32	47→57	67→70	46→55	55	263/350/526	263	280	35	7	21%	11%	150	+5.2	252/328/437	185	278	24	14	19%	9%	118	+3.0	256/338/433	177	285	23	17	19%	10%	118	+3.1
●Josh Donaldson 2020 · MLB	34	48→58	64→70	44→50	62	260/372/511	251	295	32	5	24%	14%	154	+5.5	244/351/460	216	284	27	3	23%	13%	134	+4.1	227/331/413	186	270	23	1	24%	12%	110	+1.6
●Mike Napoli 2014 · MLB	32	49→57	61→65	45→50	55	252/353/482	230	324	28	3	30%	13%	140	+4.5	238/342/430	192	306	24	4	28%	13%	122	+3.3	232/339/426	194	289	25	4	28%	13%	115	+2.5
●Ray Lankford 2001 · MLB	34	50→51	63→60	42→45	57	255/363/495	240	333	31	8	31%	14%	147	+5.0	246/348/451	205	328	23	10	29%	13%	129	+3.7	242/347/434	191	320	20	9	28%	13%	113	+1.4
✕Khris Davis 2019 · MLB	31	43→51	73→70	46→45	49	253/332/548	295	281	43	3	28%	9%	149	+5.1	235/310/455	220	277	31	2	27%	9%	115	+2.8	222/292/423	201	260	30	0	27%	8%	95	+0.8
●Mike Yastrzemski 2022 · MLB	31	48→51	63→65	48→50	51	256/338/505	249	299	30	6	25%	10%	139	+4.4	238/322/449	211	289	24	6	25%	10%	118	+3.0	239/329/444	204	284	23	5	23%	11%	115	+2.2
✕Josh Willingham 2013 · MLB	34	48→53	63→60	46→45	56	257/357/496	240	292	31	5	24%	12%	145	+4.9	230/345/422	192	286	24	4	26%	13%	122	+3.3	209/341/379	170	269	21	2	28%	14%	105	+1.5
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2004 · MLB	34	49→55	62→70	45	58	262/359/497	235	281	29	5	19%	12%	146	+4.9	269/351/521	252	282	34	3	18%	11%	149	+5.1	274/355/514	240	281	33	2	16%	11%	139	+4.1