Kyle Schwarber — OGILVIE

Kyle SchwarberLF Philadelphia Phillies

Age 33 L/R 5'11" / 229 lbs MLB HR +11%H +4% Svc 10.500 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.3 · 2026

wRC+†vL 164147vR 139

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .356 / .518

PA644

HR44

K%28

BB%15

xwOBA.383

Barrel%21.6%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

73↘60

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.6peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 10.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+3.3	$26M	+$6M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+1.9	$16M	-$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+1.2	$10M	-$10M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+0.4	$2M	-$18M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	—	—	—
Totals		$110M		$53M	-$57M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$57M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A+	2 teams	287	254	67	15	1	12	25	79	3	5	1	.264	.337	.472	.809	.209	.327	28	9	.347	124	+8	+1	+0	-3	+8	1.4
2015	22	MLB	3 teams	583	504	126	20	2	29	70	172	5	4	3	.250	.347	.470	.817	.220	.317	30	12	.349	125	+17	-0	-3	-6	+17	2.4
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	530	460	99	17	1	32	64	165	6	1	1	.215	.319	.465	.784	.250	.255	31	12	.341	119	+12	-0	-6	-6	+15	1.5
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	510	428	102	14	2	28	78	140	1	4	3	.238	.357	.477	.834	.238	.282	27	15	.336	115	+9	-0	-3	-5	+14	1.5
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	610	529	127	27	2	40	70	156	5	2	3	.240	.334	.526	.860	.285	.257	26	11	.361	134	+24	-1	-9	-7	+17	2.5
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	224	191	38	6	0	12	30	66	3	1	0	.199	.317	.419	.736	.220	.230	29	13	.312	97	-1	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	471	399	105	18	0	33	64	127	6	1	1	.263	.373	.556	.930	.293	.299	27	14	.394	160	+32	-0	-10	-5	+13	3.1
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	669	577	122	18	3	45	86	200	4	10	1	.211	.318	.487	.805	.276	.231	30	13	.344	122	+16	+2	-17	-7	+19	1.3
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	720	585	111	19	1	43	126	215	6	0	2	.190	.339	.446	.785	.256	.206	30	18	.341	119	+16	-1	-18	-8	+20	0.9
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	692	573	141	23	0	35	106	197	5	5	3	.246	.368	.469	.838	.223	.304	28	15	.348	124	+19	-0	-1	-7	+20	3.1
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	724	604	139	24	2	51	108	197	11	10	2	.230	.357	.530	.887	.300	.246	27	15	.371	142	+34	+1	-2	-8	+21	4.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	111	91	18	4	0	8	16	38	4	0	0	.198	.342	.505	.848	.308	.222	34	14	.368	140	+5	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.6
ROS	33	MLB	PHI	533	440	100	18	1	37	79	156	9	4	1	.227	.356	.525	.881	.298	.250	29	15	.380	149	+29	+0	-13	-6	+15	2.7
TOT	33	MLB	PHI	644	531	118	22	1	45	95	194	13	4	1	.222	.354	.522	.875	.299	.247	30	15	.378	147	+34	+0	-14	-7	+18	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	34	MLB	PHI	594	491	108	19	1	40	88	135	10	2	1	.220	.350	.507	.857	.287	.213	23	15	.372	143	+29	+0	-19	-6	+17	2.0
2028	35	MLB	PHI	536	443	94	17	1	34	79	127	9	1	0	.212	.343	.485	.828	.273	.209	24	15	.363	136	+22	+0	-19	-6	+15	1.3
2029	36	MLB	PHI	473	393	80	14	1	29	69	117	8	0	0	.204	.334	.466	.800	.262	.205	25	15	.352	127	+15	+0	-18	-5	+13	0.5
2030	37	MLB	PHI	406	338	66	11	1	24	58	104	7	0	0	.195	.325	.447	.772	.251	.199	26	14	.339	118	+8	+0	-17	-4	+12	-0.2
2031	38	MLB	PHI	334	279	51	9	0	18	47	88	5	0	0	.183	.311	.409	.720	.226	.193	26	14	.326	108	+3	+0	-16	-4	+9	-0.7
2032	39	MLB	PHI	258	216	37	6	0	13	36	70	4	0	0	.171	.301	.380	.680	.208	.186	27	14	.312	97	-1	+0	-15	-3	+7	-1.1
2033	40	MLB	PHI	185	154	26	4	0	9	26	50	3	0	0	.169	.301	.370	.671	.201	.183	27	14	.306	93	-2	+0	-14	-2	+5	-1.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9339	7858	1739	299	19	564	1309	2561	110	50	22	.221	.340	.480	.820	.258	.246	27	14	.352	127	+288	+1	-200	-100	+265	25.8
/ 162G	—			650	547	121	21	1	39	91	178	8	3	2	.221	.341	.477	.818	.256	.246	27	14	.352	127	+20	-0	-14	-7	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A+	Daytona Cubs	191	159	48	9	1	10	26	38	1	4	0	.302	.403	.560	.963	.258	.328	20	14	.409	171	+15	+1	—	—	+5	2.2
2014	21	A	Kane County Cougars	96	83	30	8	0	4	11	17	2	1	1	.361	.448	.602	1.050	.241	.419	18	11	.459	209	+12	-0	—	—	+3	1.5
2015	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	273	232	57	6	1	16	36	77	4	3	3	.246	.357	.487	.844	.241	.293	28	13	.372	143	+13	-1	-3	-6	+8	1.1
2015	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	67	60	20	7	1	3	7	23	0	0	0	.333	.403	.633	1.036	.300	.500	34	10	.446	199	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2015	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	243	197	63	10	1	13	42	49	1	1	0	.320	.442	.579	1.020	.259	.365	20	17	.440	195	+26	+0	—	—	+7	3.4
2017	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	486	422	89	16	1	30	59	150	5	1	1	.211	.315	.467	.782	.256	.244	31	12	.345	122	+12	-0	-6	-6	+14	1.4
2017	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	44	35	12	1	0	4	8	12	1	0	0	.343	.477	.714	1.192	.371	.421	27	18	.506	245	+7	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2018	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	510	428	102	14	3	26	78	140	1	4	3	.238	.357	.467	.824	.229	.288	27	15	.364	136	+21	-0	-3	-5	+14	2.7
2019	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	610	529	132	29	3	38	70	156	5	2	3	.250	.343	.531	.874	.282	.276	26	11	.377	146	+32	-1	-9	-7	+17	3.3
2020	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	224	191	36	6	0	11	30	66	3	1	0	.188	.308	.393	.701	.204	.219	29	13	.317	100	+0	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2021	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	471	399	106	19	0	32	64	127	6	1	1	.266	.375	.554	.929	.288	.306	27	14	.403	167	+35	-0	-10	-5	+13	3.4
2022	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	669	577	126	21	3	46	86	200	4	10	1	.218	.324	.504	.828	.286	.240	30	13	.360	134	+26	+2	-17	-7	+19	2.3
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	720	585	115	19	1	47	126	215	6	0	2	.197	.344	.474	.818	.277	.209	30	18	.361	134	+28	-1	-18	-8	+20	2.2
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	692	573	142	22	0	38	106	197	5	5	3	.248	.370	.485	.855	.237	.301	28	15	.375	145	+35	-0	-1	-7	+20	4.7
2025	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	724	604	145	23	2	56	108	197	11	10	2	.240	.365	.563	.928	.323	.253	27	15	.401	165	+53	+1	-2	-8	+21	6.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5379	4540	1050	175	14	340	763	1525	50	37	19	.231	.348	.501	.849	.269	.263	28	14	.371	142	+256	-0	-71	-61	+152	28.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle Schwarber (OGILVIE)	33	50	60	40	60	.224/.353/.515	.291	.216	44	5	22%	15%	149	+5.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt Carpenter 2019 · MLB	33	49→59	62→65	42→45	65	.258/.377/.504	.246	.291	28	3	21%	15%	154	+5.5	.229/.344/.421	.192	.284	22	6	26%	14%	121	+3.2	.221/.335/.446	.225	.271	28	2	28%	13%	120	+1.1
★Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	45→52	61→65	39→45	60	.244/.350/.477	.233	.265	29	4	21%	13%	137	+4.3	.242/.327/.459	.217	.271	29	7	22%	10%	124	+3.4	.259/.327/.489	.229	.278	31	5	19%	8%	124	+3.3
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	49→59	63→65	44→50	59	.264/.365/.511	.247	.301	31	5	23%	13%	151	+5.3	.254/.358/.475	.221	.331	28	4	29%	13%	140	+4.5	.242/.357/.442	.199	.336	24	1	32%	14%	124	+2.0
★Edwin Encarnación 2016 · MLB	33	48→58	66→65	46→50	62	.266/.359/.523	.257	.257	34	5	14%	12%	153	+5.4	.256/.356/.506	.250	.266	35	3	19%	13%	147	+5.0	.249/.353/.495	.246	.260	35	2	21%	13%	135	+4.5
★José Bautista 2014 · MLB	33	47→55	66→70	46→45	68	.264/.380/.523	.259	.262	35	8	16%	15%	160	+5.9	.256/.373/.491	.235	.261	30	7	16%	15%	150	+5.2	.248/.377/.481	.233	.254	30	5	16%	16%	143	+4.8
●Carlos Pena 2010 · MLB	32	44→49	70	42→45	63	.248/.374/.535	.287	.282	37	3	27%	15%	160	+5.9	.217/.343/.442	.225	.261	29	4	28%	15%	125	+3.5	.204/.338/.401	.196	.253	25	3	28%	15%	104	+2.0
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2003 · MLB	33	50→55	62→70	43→45	60	.271/.367/.503	.232	.286	30	5	18%	12%	150	+5.2	.266/.358/.512	.246	.284	32	4	19%	11%	149	+5.1	.274/.355/.514	.240	.281	33	2	16%	11%	139	+4.1
●Max Muncy 2022 · MLB	31	43→46	61→65	46→45	62	.237/.356/.465	.228	.262	30	4	22%	14%	137	+4.3	.215/.337/.431	.216	.246	28	3	25%	15%	120	+3.1	.221/.349/.454	.234	.251	31	3	25%	15%	125	+2.5
●David Justice 2001 · MLB	35	51→55	69→60	45→40	61	.282/.369/.561	.278	.277	37	4	16%	12%	166	+6.3	.261/.355/.462	.201	.280	25	4	16%	13%	135	+4.2	.252/.355/.417	.164	.278	19	3	16%	14%	117	+2.2
✕Morgan Ensberg 2008 · MLB	32	47→55	60	36→45	65	.253/.368/.477	.224	.274	28	4	20%	15%	144	+4.8	.217/.304/.364	.147	.265	18	5	24%	11%	89	+1.0	.173/.254/.270	.098	.221	12	2	27%	9%	43	-1.0
✕Anthony Rizzo 2023 · MLB	33	44→54	60→65	44→45	56	.238/.342/.455	.217	.242	28	7	17%	10%	129	+3.7	.239/.325/.396	.157	.272	19	4	20%	9%	107	+2.2	.237/.317/.354	.116	.283	14	0	20%	8%	89	+0.6
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	49→46	61→65	46→50	57	.261/.358/.492	.231	.297	28	7	22%	12%	144	+4.8	.247/.323/.426	.179	.291	19	6	21%	9%	113	+2.6	.232/.302/.379	.147	.281	14	6	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Luke Scott 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	60→65	45	56	.264/.346/.488	.224	.289	28	3	20%	11%	138	+4.4	.246/.322/.443	.197	.284	24	5	22%	9%	117	+2.9	.230/.304/.407	.178	.272	21	5	23%	8%	95	+0.7
★Josh Donaldson 2019 · MLB	33	49→59	64→65	47→50	64	.267/.377/.517	.251	.291	32	6	21%	15%	157	+5.7	.256/.368/.495	.239	.294	30	4	23%	14%	148	+5.1	.250/.368/.494	.244	.279	32	2	22%	15%	142	+3.3
★George Springer 2022 · MLB	32	49→59	68→70	46→55	56	.270/.357/.537	.266	.287	36	7	21%	11%	156	+5.6	.260/.335/.450	.190	.289	24	14	19%	9%	124	+3.4	.261/.343/.436	.174	.293	22	17	19%	10%	119	+3.2
✕Justin Smoak 2020 · MLB	33	45→52	59→65	39→30	61	.241/.347/.455	.215	.271	27	1	23%	14%	131	+3.9	.224/.320/.406	.182	.275	22	5	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.175/.250/.349	.174	.225	20	0	32%	8%	58	-0.3
✕Richie Sexson 2007 · MLB	32	48→54	65	42→30	55	.263/.349/.517	.254	.298	33	2	24%	11%	147	+5.0	.234/.321/.437	.203	.268	26	3	23%	11%	115	+2.8	.210/.306/.390	.179	.236	24	1	23%	11%	94	+0.9
✕Eric Thames 2020 · MLB	33	46→53	63→65	49→45	52	.246/.341/.492	.246	.312	31	7	30%	11%	137	+4.3	.236/.320/.420	.184	.326	22	7	32%	10%	110	+2.4	.210/.306/.326	.116	.290	14	4	30%	10%	69	-0.1
●Ryan Klesko 2004 · MLB	33	52→60	60→65	46→50	63	.276/.371/.499	.224	.287	27	9	15%	13%	150	+5.2	.267/.369/.443	.176	.295	19	5	15%	14%	135	+4.2	.264/.367/.420	.156	.298	14	5	15%	14%	123	+2.6
●Troy Glaus 2009 · MLB	32	49→52	60→70	39→50	62	.262/.363/.484	.222	.286	28	2	19%	13%	144	+4.8	.246/.343/.424	.178	.287	22	3	21%	12%	121	+3.2	.226/.327/.379	.154	.272	20	1	24%	12%	102	+1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)