Lucas Duda

Pos1B

B/TL/R

Born1986-02-03

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2019

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	31	MLBTB	491	.217/.323/.496	30	0	125	0.8
2018	32	MLBATL	367	.241/.316/.418	14	1	104	-0.1
2019	33	AAAATL	114	.202/.288/.303	2	0	22	—	.155/.216/.243
2019	33	MLBKC	119	.171/.256/.324	4	0	62	-1.2
2020	34	No MLB games played
2021	35	No MLB games played
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2017-2019

xwOBA75

Barrel%71

Avg EV65

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	22	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	559	483	127	26	3	11	66	129	7	2	7	263	360	398	757	135	335	23	12	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	467	395	111	29	1	9	61	91	5	2	2	281	384	428	812	147	340	19	13	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	92	84	17	6	0	4	6	22	1	0	0	202	264	417	680	214	220	24	7	297	92	-1	+0	-4	-6	+2	-0.9
2010	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	298	264	83	23	2	17	31	57	2	0	0	314	391	610	1.000	295	346	19	10	431	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	197	161	46	17	0	6	29	27	6	1	0	286	413	503	916	217	310	14	15	405	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	347	301	88	21	3	10	33	57	7	1	0	292	375	482	857	189	326	16	10	374	141	+17	+0	-16	-5	+8	0.4
2011	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	157	129	39	8	0	10	23	27	3	0	0	302	419	597	1.016	295	309	17	15	435	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	459	401	96	15	0	15	51	120	4	1	0	239	331	389	720	150	301	26	11	324	110	+5	+0	-21	-6	+10	-1.2
2012	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	107	96	25	4	0	3	10	21	0	0	0	260	330	396	726	135	301	20	9	324	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	384	318	71	16	0	15	55	102	9	0	3	223	353	415	768	192	276	27	14	346	120	+9	-1	-14	-5	+8	-0.4
2013	27	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	78	62	19	3	0	0	14	15	0	1	0	306	434	355	789	48	388	19	18	360	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	30	28	7	2	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	250	300	429	729	179	300	23	7	322	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	ROK	GCL Mets	—	16	13	0	0	0	0	3	8	0	0	0		188		188			50	19	131	-63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	596	514	130	27	0	30	69	135	9	3	2	253	351	481	832	228	283	23	12	366	132	+23	-0	-12	-11	+13	1.3
2015	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	554	471	115	33	0	27	66	138	14	0	2	244	354	486	840	242	285	25	12	369	135	+23	-1	-8	-10	+12	1.7
2016	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	172	153	35	7	0	7	15	36	2	0	0	229	306	412	718	183	250	21	9	317	99	-0	+0	-0	-3	+4	0.0
2017	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	491	423	92	28	0	30	60	135	6	0	0	217	323	496	820	279	238	27	12	357	125	+15	+0	-8	-9	+11	0.8
2017	31	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	19	16	4	0	0	2	3	6	0	0	0	250	368	625	993	375	250	32	16	424	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	367	328	79	14	1	14	28	102	8	1	0	241	316	418	734	177	302	28	8	325	104	+2	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.1
2018	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	18	16	5	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	312	389	750	1.139	438	333	28	11	481	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	119	105	18	4	0	4	11	32	1	0	0	171	256	324	580	152	197	27	9	260	62	-5	+0	-4	-4	+3	-1.2
2019	33	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	114	99	20	4	0	2	10	34	2	0	0	202	288	303	591	101	273	30	9	267	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3581	3098	741	171	4	156	394	879	61	6	7	239	337	448	785	209	280	25	11	347	121	+88	-2	-91	-67	+78	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	559	501	106	23	2	9	48	183	7	2	7	212	290	319	609	108	308	33	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	467	415	106	26	1	7	41	111	5	2	2	255	330	373	703	118	322	24	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	92	84	17	6	0	4	6	22	1	0	0	202	264	417	680	214	220	24	7	304	92	-1	+0	-4	-6	+2	-0.9
2010	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	298	274	74	17	2	14	21	69	2	0	0	270	327	500	827	230	311	23	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	197	170	42	15	0	5	20	34	6	1	0	247	347	424	770	176	279	17	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	347	304	90	22	3	10	30	57	7	1	0	296	372	487	859	191	326	16	9	377	141	+17	+0	-16	-5	+8	0.4
2011	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	157	138	35	7	0	8	14	32	3	0	0	254	335	478	814	225	267	20	9	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	459	401	99	16	0	15	51	120	4	1	0	247	338	399	737	152	301	26	11	330	110	+5	+0	-21	-6	+10	-1.2
2012	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	107	100	22	3	0	3	6	25	0	0	0	220	264	340	604	120	269	23	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	384	322	73	17	0	15	51	102	9	0	3	227	348	419	767	193	276	27	13	345	120	+9	-1	-14	-5	+8	-0.4
2013	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	78	66	16	2	0	0	10	20	0	1	0	242	342	273	615	30	321	26	13	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	30	28	6	2	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	214	267	393	660	179	258	33	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	—	16	14	0	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0		125		125			75	12	75	-63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	596	522	134	29	0	30	61	135	9	3	2	257	345	485	829	228	283	23	10	363	132	+23	-0	-12	-11	+13	1.3
2015	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	554	478	118	35	0	27	59	138	14	0	2	247	347	490	836	243	285	25	11	368	135	+23	-1	-8	-10	+12	1.7
2016	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	155	36	7	0	7	13	36	2	0	0	232	300	413	713	181	250	21	8	315	99	-0	+0	-0	-3	+4	0.0
2017	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	491	429	93	29	0	31	54	135	6	0	0	217	313	501	814	284	238	27	11	353	125	+15	+0	-8	-9	+11	0.8
2017	31	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	19	18	4	0	0	2	1	9	0	0	0	222	263	556	819	333	218	47	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	367	330	79	14	1	14	26	102	8	1	0	239	310	415	726	176	302	28	7	322	104	+2	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.1
2018	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	18	17	4	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	235	278	471	748	235	260	33	6	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	119	106	18	4	0	4	10	32	1	0	0	170	248	321	569	151	197	27	8	260	62	-5	+0	-4	-4	+3	-1.2
2019	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	114	103	16	3	0	2	6	43	2	0	0	155	216	243	459	87	216	38	5	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	559	501	106	23	2	9	48	183	7	2	7	212	290	319	609	108	311	33	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	559	483	127	26	3	11	66	129	7	2	7	263	360	398	757	135	335	23	12	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	467	415	106	26	1	7	41	111	5	2	2	255	330	373	703	118	328	24	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Mets	—	467	395	111	29	1	9	61	91	5	2	2	281	384	428	812	147	340	19	13	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	587	528	134	39	2	23	47	125	9	1	0	254	325	466	791	212	290	21	8	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	587	509	146	46	2	27	66	106	9	1	0	287	378	544	923	257	314	18	11	401	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	442	126	29	3	18	44	89	10	1	0	285	363	486	849	201	316	18	9	370	137	+22	+0	-16	-5	+11	1.2
2011	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	504	430	127	29	3	20	56	84	10	1	0	295	389	516	905	221	321	17	11	393	137	+22	+0	-16	-5	+11	1.2
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	566	501	121	19	0	18	57	145	4	1	0	242	324	387	711	146	301	26	10	319	102	+2	+0	-21	-6	+12	-1.3
2012	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	566	497	121	19	0	18	61	141	4	1	0	243	331	390	721	147	301	25	11	324	102	+2	+0	-21	-6	+12	-1.3
2013	27	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	508	431	95	21	0	16	64	144	9	1	3	220	333	381	714	160	287	28	13	320	103	+2	-1	-14	-5	+11	-0.8
2013	27	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	508	421	97	21	0	16	74	132	9	1	3	230	357	394	751	164	292	26	15	340	103	+2	-1	-14	-5	+11	-0.8
2014	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	596	522	134	29	0	30	61	135	9	3	2	257	345	485	829	228	288	23	10	363	132	+23	-0	-12	-11	+13	1.3
2014	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	596	514	130	27	0	30	69	135	9	3	2	253	351	481	832	228	283	23	12	366	132	+23	-0	-12	-11	+13	1.3
2015	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	554	478	118	35	0	27	59	138	14	0	2	247	347	490	836	243	288	25	11	368	135	+23	-1	-8	-10	+12	1.7
2015	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	554	471	115	33	0	27	66	138	14	0	2	244	354	486	840	242	285	25	12	369	135	+23	-1	-8	-10	+12	1.7
2016	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	155	36	7	0	7	13	36	2	0	0	232	300	413	713	181	254	21	8	315	99	-0	+0	-0	-3	+4	0.0
2016	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	172	153	35	7	0	7	15	36	2	0	0	229	306	412	718	183	250	21	9	317	99	-0	+0	-0	-3	+4	0.0
2017	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	510	447	96	29	0	32	55	144	6	0	0	215	309	494	803	280	234	28	11	351	124	+14	+0	-8	-9	+11	0.8
2017	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	510	439	96	28	0	32	63	141	6	0	0	219	325	501	826	282	239	28	12	360	124	+14	+0	-8	-9	+11	0.8
2018	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	347	83	15	1	15	27	108	8	1	0	239	309	418	727	179	300	28	7	322	104	+2	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.0
2018	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	385	344	84	15	1	16	30	107	8	1	0	244	319	433	753	189	304	28	8	333	104	+2	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.0
2019	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	233	209	34	7	0	6	16	75	3	0	0	163	232	282	515	120	211	32	7	231	42	-16	+0	-4	-4	+5	-2.0
2019	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	233	204	38	8	0	6	21	66	3	0	0	186	272	314	586	127	234	28	9	263	42	-16	+0	-4	-4	+5	-2.0
2008	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	559	499	106	23	2	9	48	183	7	2	7	212	290	321	610	108	308	33	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	467	418	106	26	1	7	41	111	5	2	2	254	330	371	701	117	322	24	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	587	526	134	39	2	23	47	125	9	1	0	255	325	468	793	213	286	21	8	342	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	504	445	126	29	3	18	44	89	10	1	0	283	363	483	846	200	308	18	9	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	566	500	121	19	0	18	57	145	4	1	0	242	324	388	712	146	295	26	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	508	430	95	21	0	16	64	144	9	1	3	221	333	381	715	160	273	28	13	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	596	521	134	29	0	30	61	135	9	3	2	257	345	486	830	228	283	23	10	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	554	476	118	35	0	27	59	138	14	0	2	248	347	492	838	244	285	25	11	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	172	155	36	7	0	7	13	36	2	0	0	232	300	413	713	181	250	21	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	510	444	96	29	0	32	55	144	6	0	0	216	309	498	807	282	238	28	11	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	347	83	15	1	15	27	108	8	1	0	239	309	418	727	179	300	28	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	233	212	34	7	0	6	16	75	3	0	0	160	232	278	511	118	206	32	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3581	3098	741	171	4	156	394	879	61	6	7	239	337	448	785	209	280	25	11	347	109	+88	-2	-91	-67	+78	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	134	31	1	28	72	160	11	1	1	238	336	447	783	208	280	25	11	347	109	+16	-0	-17	-12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5641	4976	1189	279	9	208	532	1433	86	12	16	239	323	424	747	185	290	25	9	330	109	+88	-2	-91	-67	+78	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	137	32	1	24	61	165	10	1	2	239	322	424	747	185	290	25	9	330	109	+16	-0	-17	-12	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 114 PAwOBA .263 → .200 (−63)K% 29.8% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.82%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	37.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.942	4.90%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.55%
Singles /BIP	21.54%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	4.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.942	2.71%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .263 → .200; ISO .101 → .083; BABIP .273 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 18 PAwOBA .453 → .331 (−122)K% 27.8% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷1.007	×1.290	—	—	35.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.018	×0.710	—	×0.952	3.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.020	×0.900	—	×0.952	15.28%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.936	×0.810	—	×0.952	7.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	18.18%	÷1.101	×0.780	—	×0.952	12.26%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .453 → .331; ISO .438 → .303; BABIP .333 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+St. Lucie Mets · 19 PAwOBA .397 → .306 (−91)K% 31.6% → 46.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.58%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	46.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.957	×0.750	—	×0.940	7.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.970	×0.920	—	×0.940	17.83%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.056	×0.960	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷0.911	×0.880	—	×0.940	18.16%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .397 → .306; ISO .375 → .293; BABIP .250 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALas Vegas 51s · 78 PAwOBA .362 → .287 (−75)K% 19.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷0.952	×1.290	—	—	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.95%	÷0.994	×0.710	—	×1.003	12.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.04%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	28.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.38%	÷1.023	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	4.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.780	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .287; ISO .048 → .037; BABIP .388 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+St. Lucie Mets · 30 PAwOBA .313 → .226 (−87)K% 23.3% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.33%	÷0.979	×1.420	—	—	33.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.949	×0.750	—	×0.958	5.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.052	×0.920	—	×0.958	15.95%
Doubles /BIP	9.52%	÷0.959	×0.960	—	×0.958	9.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.114	×0.810	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.370	×0.880	—	×0.958	2.93%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 123, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .313 → .226; ISO .179 → .117; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ROKGCL Mets · 16 PAwOBA .129 → .075 (−54)K% 50.0% → 72.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	50.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	72.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	10.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .129 → .075; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAABuffalo Bisons · 107 PAwOBA .315 → .273 (−42)K% 19.6% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.63%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.41%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷0.992	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	21.76%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	4.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.002	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷0.901	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .273; ISO .135 → .124; BABIP .301 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAABuffalo Bisons · 157 PAwOBA .427 → .356 (−72)K% 17.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.20%	÷1.026	×1.200	—	—	20.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.01%	÷1.088	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.18%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.86%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	18.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	6.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.80%	÷1.139	×0.840	—	×1.033	7.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 105, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .427 → .356; ISO .295 → .242; BABIP .309 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).