Max Anderson
2B Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+DET | 549 | .266/.317/.387 | 11 | 1 | 70 | — | .242/.281/.352 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 621 | .309/.381/.506 | 23 | 4 | 125 | — | .280/.321/.427 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/ADET | 498 | .302/.390/.486 | 17 | 6 | 117 | — | .285/.354/.432 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBDET | 21 | .264/.320/.400 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ47% MLB | 26 | MLBDET | 220 | .263/.320/.402 | 6 | 2 | 107 | 0.7 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 27 | MLBDET | 296 | .261/.319/.400 | 7 | 2 | 106 | 0.9 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 145 | 128 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 355 | 445 | 800 | 156 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 346 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 22 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 182 | 273 | 455 | 91 | 211 | 14 | 0 | 199 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 527 | 485 | 131 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 323 | 392 | 715 | 122 | 297 | 14 | 7 | 318 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 147 | 135 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 327 | 422 | 749 | 156 | 304 | 19 | 5 | 335 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 405 | 369 | 113 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 306 | 362 | 499 | 860 | 192 | 330 | 15 | 7 | 376 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 69 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 447 | 618 | 809 | 1.426 | 362 | 486 | 13 | 26 | 585 | 282 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 482 | 417 | 126 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 63 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 302 | 390 | 477 | 867 | 175 | 323 | 13 | 11 | 382 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 400 | 769 | 1.169 | 462 | 250 | 25 | 12 | 460 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 145 | 132 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 284 | 341 | 625 | 106 | 296 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 22 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 182 | 273 | 455 | 91 | 198 | 18 | 0 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 527 | 495 | 121 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 285 | 356 | 640 | 111 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 147 | 137 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 306 | 387 | 693 | 131 | 299 | 21 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 405 | 380 | 110 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 289 | 327 | 442 | 769 | 153 | 320 | 17 | 4 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 482 | 431 | 123 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 76 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 285 | 354 | 422 | 777 | 137 | 315 | 16 | 8 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 714 | 1.048 | 429 | 214 | 31 | 6 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 145 | 132 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 284 | 341 | 625 | 106 | 303 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 145 | 128 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 355 | 445 | 800 | 156 | 337 | 18 | 8 | 346 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 517 | 124 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 279 | 348 | 627 | 108 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 549 | 507 | 135 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 317 | 387 | 704 | 120 | 293 | 14 | 6 | 314 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 621 | 579 | 162 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 114 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 280 | 323 | 427 | 750 | 147 | 320 | 18 | 4 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 621 | 551 | 170 | 36 | 2 | 23 | 54 | 96 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 309 | 381 | 506 | 888 | 198 | 336 | 15 | 9 | 389 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 445 | 126 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 81 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 283 | 352 | 429 | 781 | 146 | 317 | 16 | 8 | 340 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 430 | 130 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 55 | 67 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 302 | 390 | 486 | 876 | 184 | 321 | 13 | 11 | 385 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 145 | 135 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 284 | 333 | 617 | 104 | 296 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 516 | 124 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 279 | 349 | 628 | 109 | 276 | 19 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 621 | 579 | 162 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 114 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 280 | 323 | 427 | 750 | 147 | 314 | 18 | 4 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 448 | 126 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 81 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 281 | 352 | 426 | 778 | 145 | 312 | 16 | 8 | 340 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 516 | 124 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 279 | 349 | 628 | 109 | 276 | 19 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 621 | 579 | 162 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 114 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 280 | 323 | 427 | 750 | 147 | 314 | 18 | 4 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 448 | 126 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 81 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 281 | 352 | 426 | 778 | 145 | 312 | 16 | 8 | 340 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 10% | 380 | 348 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 268 | 324 | 409 | 733 | 141 | 306 | 18 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +3 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 10% | 21 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 320 | 400 | 719 | 136 | 301 | 19 | 5 | 320 | 106 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 47% | 470 | 431 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 85 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 268 | 324 | 412 | 736 | 144 | 305 | 18 | 6 | 327 | 107 | +4 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 61% | 488 | 447 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 90 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 266 | 323 | 409 | 732 | 144 | 304 | 18 | 7 | 325 | 106 | +4 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 68% | 494 | 452 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 93 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 321 | 405 | 726 | 142 | 303 | 19 | 7 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 70% | 493 | 451 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 95 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 318 | 398 | 717 | 139 | 301 | 19 | 7 | 319 | 102 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 71% | 487 | 446 | 114 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 314 | 391 | 706 | 135 | 299 | 20 | 7 | 314 | 99 | -1 | -0 | -4 | +2 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | DET | 71% | 479 | 439 | 110 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 97 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 251 | 309 | 381 | 691 | 130 | 296 | 20 | 7 | 308 | 95 | -3 | -0 | -5 | +2 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | DET | 71% | 469 | 431 | 105 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 303 | 368 | 671 | 123 | 292 | 21 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB MLE | DET | 72% | 230 | 211 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 295 | 353 | 648 | 114 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -5 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 47% | 220 | 201 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 320 | 402 | 723 | 140 | 300 | 18 | 6 | 321 | 107 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 61% | 296 | 271 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 319 | 400 | 719 | 139 | 299 | 19 | 6 | 319 | 106 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 68% | 336 | 307 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 63 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 137 | 298 | 19 | 7 | 317 | 104 | +2 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 70% | 343 | 313 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 314 | 389 | 703 | 134 | 296 | 19 | 7 | 313 | 102 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 71% | 343 | 313 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 68 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 310 | 382 | 692 | 131 | 294 | 20 | 7 | 309 | 99 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | DET | 71% | 340 | 311 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 305 | 372 | 678 | 125 | 291 | 20 | 6 | 303 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | DET | 71% | 335 | 307 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 69 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 299 | 360 | 659 | 118 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 295 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB CTX | DET | 72% | 165 | 152 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 291 | 345 | 636 | 110 | 282 | 21 | 6 | 286 | 83 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2378 | 2175 | 546 | 99 | 7 | 55 | 155 | 465 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 251 | 309 | 379 | 688 | 128 | 294 | 20 | 7 | 309 | 98 | -4 | -1 | -21 | +8 | +52 | 3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 149 | 27 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 127 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 309 | 378 | 687 | 128 | 293 | 20 | 6 | 309 | 98 | -1 | -0 | -6 | +2 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5633 | 5173 | 1344 | 245 | 23 | 135 | 350 | 1073 | 66 | 27 | 14 | 260 | 315 | 394 | 709 | 135 | 302 | 19 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -2 | -1 | -31 | +14 | +83 | 6.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 156 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 124 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 261 | 316 | 399 | 715 | 137 | 304 | 19 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -0 | -0 | -5 | +2 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 482 PAwOBA .376 → .339 (−37)K% 13.1% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.07% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 24.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .376 → .339; ISO .175 → .144; BABIP .323 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 16 PAwOBA .477 → .385 (−92)K% 25.0% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 20.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 17.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .477 → .385; ISO .462 → .370; BABIP .250 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 405 PAwOBA .366 → .332 (−34)K% 14.6% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.57% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 24.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.52% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .366 → .332; ISO .192 → .155; BABIP .330 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 147 PAwOBA .326 → .299 (−27)K% 19.0% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.44% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.36% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .326 → .299; ISO .156 → .134; BABIP .304 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 527 PAwOBA .312 → .276 (−36)K% 14.0% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.04% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 18.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.64% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.87% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .312 → .276; ISO .122 → .111; BABIP .297 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 22 PAwOBA .193 → .173 (−20)K% 13.6% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 10.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 9.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .193 → .173; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .211 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 145 PAwOBA .347 → .278 (−68)K% 17.9% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.93% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 9.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .347 → .278; ISO .156 → .116; BABIP .337 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .