Sean Murphy

C Atlanta Braves

Age 32 R/R 6'3" / 228 lbs MLB Svc 7.169 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBATL	264	.193/.285/.352	10	0	80	1.1
2025	30	MLBATL	337	.199/.302/.409	16	0	99	2.5
2026	31	AAAATL	62	.291/.361/.345	0	0	62	—	.228/.279/.263
2026	31	MLBATL	121	.182/.256/.300	3	0	59	-0.0
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	174	.211/.295/.397	7	1	94	0.9
2028PROJ	33	MLBATL	141	.203/.287/.379	6	0	87	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service7.169First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$12M2028Ext$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%69

Bat Spd62

xwOBA47

Avg EV41

Speed13

Form.207/.306/.376 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .210/.293/.396

CompsRobinson Chirinos (age 33) · Scott Seabol (age 32) · Tim Beckham (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9894vR 83

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .295 / .397

PA174

HR7

K%28

BB%9

BABIP254

ISO175

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.205

POWER55

Barrel%

6911.0

Avg EV

4188.5

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1325.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%▲26% over 68 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%11%▲▲15% over 68 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.169▼.121 over 58 AB (60d) · proj .186

HR/BB6.4%·5.0% over 40 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%

BABIP.251·.184 over 38 BIP (60d) · proj .254

SLASH.207/.306/.376·proj .210/.293/.396

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 601 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

186

415

—

wRC+

107

◀◀L

wOBA

326

289

◀L

ISO

253

159

◀◀L

BABIP

224

237

▶R

33.9%

26.3%

▶▶R

BB%

11.3%

9.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$12M	+0.9	$4M	-$9M
2028	Ext	$12M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$11M
Totals		$24M		$4M	-$19M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$12.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	217	191	40	7	0	4	21	34	1	0	0	209	291	309	600	99	232	16	10	272	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	178	165	49	11	0	9	11	33	1	0	0	297	345	527	872	230	323	19	6	379	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	80	68	21	4	0	0	10	7	2	0	0	309	412	368	780	59	344	9	12	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	289	257	74	26	2	8	23	47	6	3	0	288	360	498	858	210	324	16	8	374	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	91	81	15	1	0	2	7	19	3	1	0	185	275	272	546	86	217	21	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	60	53	13	5	0	4	6	16	1	0	0	245	333	566	899	321	273	27	10	388	156	+4	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.9
2019	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	140	120	37	6	1	10	15	31	2	0	1	308	394	625	1.019	317	329	22	11	430	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	ROK	AZL Athletics Gold	—	37	30	7	2	0	1	7	5	0	0	0	233	378	400	778	167	250	14	19	355	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	140	116	27	5	0	7	24	37	0	0	0	233	364	457	821	224	278	26	17	366	140	+7	+0	+6	+3	+3	1.8
2021	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	448	393	85	23	0	17	40	114	12	0	0	216	308	405	712	188	257	25	9	318	105	+3	+0	+21	+8	+10	4.3
2022	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	612	537	134	37	2	18	56	124	13	1	0	250	334	426	761	177	290	20	9	337	116	+12	+0	+20	+11	+13	5.8
2023	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	438	370	93	21	0	21	49	98	18	0	0	251	366	478	845	227	286	22	11	375	140	+21	+0	+21	+8	+9	6.0
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	264	233	45	5	1	10	27	67	3	0	0	193	285	352	637	159	223	25	10	288	80	-6	+0	+7	+5	+6	1.1
2024	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	19	18	5	1	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	278	316	667	982	389	250	21	5	419	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	337	291	58	13	0	16	35	105	8	0	0	199	302	409	711	210	243	31	10	316	99	-1	+0	+12	+6	+7	2.5
2026	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	121	110	20	4	0	3	11	37	0	0	0	182	256	300	556	118	243	31	9	255	59	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2026	31	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	62	55	16	3	0	0	5	16	1	0	0	291	361	345	706	55	400	26	8	320	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2420	2103	475	113	3	96	248	598	55	1	0	226	323	419	743	194	267	25	10	331	110	+29	+0	+85	+48	+52	21.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	217	197	35	6	0	4	15	44	1	0	0	178	239	269	508	91	203	20	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	178	169	42	9	0	6	7	44	1	0	0	249	282	408	691	160	294	25	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	289	265	66	22	2	7	15	59	6	3	0	249	304	426	731	177	288	20	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	60	53	13	5	0	4	6	16	1	0	0	245	333	566	899	321	273	27	10	399	156	+4	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.9
2019	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	140	124	30	5	1	7	11	40	2	0	1	242	314	468	782	226	272	29	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	—	37	33	5	1	0	1	4	7	0	0	0	152	243	273	516	121	184	19	11	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	140	116	28	5	0	8	24	37	0	0	0	241	371	491	863	250	278	26	17	376	140	+7	+0	+6	+3	+3	1.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	448	393	86	22	0	19	40	114	12	0	0	219	310	420	730	201	257	25	9	324	105	+3	+0	+21	+8	+10	4.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	612	540	135	36	2	20	54	124	13	1	0	250	333	435	768	185	290	20	9	339	116	+12	+0	+20	+11	+13	5.8
2023	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	438	370	93	21	0	21	49	98	18	0	0	251	366	478	845	227	286	22	11	375	140	+21	+0	+21	+8	+9	6.0
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	264	234	45	5	1	10	26	67	3	0	0	192	281	350	632	158	223	25	10	286	80	-6	+0	+7	+5	+6	1.1
2024	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	19	18	4	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	222	263	444	708	222	214	26	5	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	337	292	58	13	0	16	34	105	8	0	0	199	299	408	707	209	243	31	10	314	99	-1	+0	+12	+6	+7	2.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	121	110	20	4	0	3	11	37	0	0	0	182	256	300	556	118	243	31	9	255	59	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2026	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	62	57	13	2	0	0	3	19	1	0	0	228	279	263	542	35	347	31	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	475	439	92	19	0	11	27	106	4	0	0	210	262	328	590	118	249	22	6	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	475	424	110	22	0	13	42	74	4	0	0	259	332	403	735	144	285	16	9	327	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	380	348	86	29	2	9	20	78	9	4	0	247	305	420	725	172	293	21	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	380	338	89	27	2	10	30	66	9	4	0	263	340	444	783	180	299	17	8	346	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	237	210	48	11	1	12	21	64	3	0	1	229	308	462	770	233	263	27	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	237	203	57	13	1	15	28	52	3	0	1	281	376	576	952	296	302	22	12	408	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	140	116	28	5	0	8	24	37	0	0	0	241	371	491	863	250	282	26	17	376	140	+7	+0	+6	+3	+3	1.8
2020	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	140	116	27	5	0	7	24	37	0	0	0	233	364	457	821	224	278	26	17	366	140	+7	+0	+6	+3	+3	1.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	448	393	86	22	0	19	40	114	12	0	0	219	310	420	730	201	255	25	9	324	105	+3	+0	+21	+8	+10	4.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	448	393	85	23	0	17	40	114	12	0	0	216	308	405	712	188	257	25	9	318	105	+3	+0	+21	+8	+10	4.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	612	540	135	36	2	20	54	124	13	1	0	250	333	435	768	185	287	20	9	339	116	+12	+0	+20	+11	+13	5.8
2022	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	612	537	134	37	2	18	56	124	13	1	0	250	334	426	761	177	290	20	9	337	116	+12	+0	+20	+11	+13	5.8
2023	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	438	370	93	21	0	21	49	98	18	0	0	251	366	478	845	227	286	22	11	375	140	+21	+0	+21	+8	+9	6.0
2023	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	438	370	93	21	0	21	49	98	18	0	0	251	366	478	845	227	286	22	11	375	140	+21	+0	+21	+8	+9	6.0
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	283	252	49	6	1	11	27	72	3	0	0	194	280	357	637	163	224	25	10	287	80	-7	+0	+7	+5	+6	1.1
2024	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	283	251	50	6	1	12	28	71	3	0	0	199	287	375	662	175	225	25	10	297	80	-7	+0	+7	+5	+6	1.1
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	337	292	58	13	0	16	34	105	8	0	0	199	299	408	707	209	241	31	10	314	99	-1	+0	+12	+6	+7	2.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	337	291	58	13	0	16	35	105	8	0	0	199	302	409	711	210	243	31	10	316	99	-1	+0	+12	+6	+7	2.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	167	33	6	0	3	14	56	1	0	0	198	264	287	551	90	275	31	8	256	60	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
2026	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	183	165	36	7	0	3	16	53	1	0	0	218	291	315	606	97	300	29	9	277	60	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	475	441	92	19	0	11	27	106	4	0	0	209	262	327	588	118	244	22	6	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	380	348	86	29	2	9	20	78	9	4	0	247	305	420	725	172	288	21	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	237	211	48	11	1	12	21	64	3	0	1	227	308	460	767	232	258	27	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	140	115	28	5	0	8	24	37	0	0	0	243	371	496	867	252	278	26	17	376	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	448	393	86	22	0	19	40	114	12	0	0	219	310	420	730	201	257	25	9	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	612	540	135	36	2	20	54	124	13	1	0	250	333	435	768	185	290	20	9	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	438	368	93	21	0	21	49	98	18	0	0	253	366	481	847	228	286	22	11	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	283	251	49	6	1	11	27	72	3	0	0	195	280	359	639	163	222	25	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	337	292	58	13	0	16	34	105	8	0	0	199	299	408	707	209	243	31	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	166	33	6	0	3	14	56	1	0	0	199	264	289	553	90	278	31	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	283	251	49	6	1	11	27	72	3	0	0	195	280	359	639	163	222	25	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	337	292	58	13	0	16	34	105	8	0	0	199	299	408	707	209	243	31	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	166	33	6	0	3	14	56	1	0	0	199	264	289	553	90	278	31	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	280	248	53	10	1	12	26	79	4	1	0	211	295	397	692	186	254	28	9	308	94	-2	+0	+4	+5	+6	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	174	154	32	6	0	7	16	49	2	1	0	211	295	397	692	186	254	28	9	308	94	-1	+0	+3	+3	+4	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	141	125	26	5	0	6	13	41	2	0	0	203	287	379	665	176	247	29	9	297	87	-2	+0	-2	+3	+3	0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	141	125	26	5	0	6	13	41	2	0	0	203	287	379	665	176	247	29	9	297	87	-2	+0	-2	+3	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2561	2228	501	118	3	102	261	639	57	1	0	225	322	418	739	193	266	25	10	329	101	+27	+0	+83	+50	+55	22.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	128	30	1	26	66	162	14	0	0	227	322	421	743	195	268	25	10	329	101	+7	+0	+21	+13	+14	5.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3848	3406	766	179	6	143	339	944	75	6	1	225	309	407	716	182	266	25	9	317	101	+26	+0	+86	+53	+59	22.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	129	30	1	24	57	159	13	1	0	224	309	405	714	181	265	24	9	317	101	+6	+0	+20	+13	+14	5.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 62 PAwOBA .317 → .260 (−57)K% 25.8% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.81%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.06%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.30%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.44%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.952	29.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.952	6.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .260; ISO .055 → .043; BABIP .400 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 19 PAwOBA .405 → .299 (−106)K% 21.1% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	26.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.53%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.977	×0.930	—	×0.972	13.22%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.961	×0.830	—	×0.972	6.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.972	10.04%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .405 → .299; ISO .389 → .267; BABIP .250 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 140 PAwOBA .427 → .330 (−97)K% 22.1% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.14%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	28.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.033	7.98%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.45%
Singles /BIP	22.47%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	19.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	5.63%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.102	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.81%
Home runs /BIP	11.24%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.033	8.09%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .427 → .330; ISO .317 → .227; BABIP .329 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Athletics Gold · 37 PAwOBA .338 → .240 (−98)K% 13.5% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.51%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.22%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.945	9.50%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.945	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.945	12.40%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.945	5.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.945	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.945	2.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .240; ISO .167 → .125; BABIP .250 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMidland RockHounds · 289 PAwOBA .364 → .314 (−51)K% 16.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.26%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.22%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.83%
Singles /BIP	18.10%	÷1.050	×0.920	×1.044	×1.012	16.77%
Doubles /BIP	12.38%	÷1.041	×0.840	×1.044	×1.012	10.56%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.044	×1.012	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	3.81%	÷0.922	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.35%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .364 → .314; ISO .210 → .181; BABIP .324 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMidland RockHounds · 217 PAwOBA .267 → .227 (−41)K% 15.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.67%	÷0.939	×1.220	—	—	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷0.990	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.03%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.41%
Singles /BIP	18.47%	÷1.142	×0.920	×1.044	×1.027	15.95%
Doubles /BIP	4.46%	÷0.987	×0.840	×1.044	×1.027	4.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.940	×1.044	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.55%	÷0.862	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.43%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 128, 2B 97, 3B 95, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .267 → .227; ISO .099 → .093; BABIP .232 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Stockton Ports · 178 PAwOBA .370 → .292 (−79)K% 18.5% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.54%	÷1.010	×1.340	—	—	24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.18%	÷1.115	×0.710	—	×0.998	3.93%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.44%
Singles /BIP	21.97%	÷0.979	×0.910	×1.035	×0.998	21.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.972	×0.820	×1.035	×0.998	7.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.760	×1.035	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷1.397	×0.920	—	×0.998	4.48%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 102, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .370 → .292; ISO .230 → .159; BABIP .323 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1David Rosslast yr '16 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,631 PA	4.0	2,631	105	3	229	316	422	+47	+157	30.3	25.8
/162	664	26	1	+11.9	+39.7	7.7	pk7: 21
#2Tyler Flowerslast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,741 PA	4.1	2,741	86	2	238	319	394	+49	+142	27.5	25.8
/162	664	21	0	+11.9	+34.4	6.7	pk7: 24
#3Chris Snyderlast yr '12 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	77	0	225	329	385	+43	+73	19.3	18.1
/162	664	21	0	+11.9	+19.9	5.3	pk7: 17
#4Mike Macfarlane'87-'99 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,043 PA	6.1	4,043	129	12	244*	313*	436*	+65	+0	19.1	17.7
/162	664	21	2	+10.6	+0.0	3.1	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	4.1	2,735	109	2	225	318	419	+49	+121	14.9	14.5
/162	664	26	1	+11.9	+29.5	3.6	pk7: 14
#5Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13
#6Ed Herrmann'67-'78 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,057 PA	4.6	3,057	80	6	241*	311*	404*	+49	+0	11.9	11.5
/162	664	17	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sean Murphy (OGILVIE)	32	40	55	30	55	209/293/393	184	254	7	1	28%	9%	94	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	56→60	40→50	49	229/308/427	198	263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+1.8	236/339/446	210	295	26	4	28%	10%	122	+3.0	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	238/296/424	186	300	22	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	249/299/400	151	324	19	7	28%	6%	96	+1.0	255/299/384	129	337	17	4	28%	5%	89	+0.2
✕John Buck 2012 · MLB	32	48→53	53→60	41→30	46	248/308/421	173	292	22	2	23%	7%	105	+1.7	225/296/374	149	272	19	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6	214/286/349	136	261	18	1	25%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Luke Montz 2015 · MLB	32	36→44	59→55	41→40	44	210/279/417	208	258	29	5	31%	8%	94	+0.9	197/266/341	144	289	15	8	35%	8%	71	-0.8	128/202/252	124	189	12	3	38%	8%	26	-1.3
✕Kelly Stinnett 2002 · MLB	32	46	53→50	41→40	44	239/304/408	168	289	22	6	25%	7%	101	+1.4	241/310/391	150	301	17	6	25%	8%	99	+1.2	226/292/361	135	284	15	2	25%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Luis Valbuena 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	59→60	38→50	54	226/313/435	209	256	28	3	24%	11%	110	+2.1	220/284/386	166	289	21	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4	196/244/328	132	273	18	6	35%	6%	60	-0.8
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	41→44	54→60	40→45	51	221/297/399	178	253	23	4	23%	9%	96	+1.0	192/258/324	132	234	15	4	25%	8%	64	-1.3	155/214/261	106	191	12	0	26%	6%	32	-2.7
✕Taylor Teagarden 2015 · MLB	31	41→49	54→55	43→30	41	219/279/391	172	298	24	4	34%	8%	87	+0.4	233/291/368	135	351	15	6	35%	7%	86	+0.3	237/291/339	102	381	10	0	38%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Corky Miller 2007 · MLB	31	40	55→50	41→40	48	217/298/399	182	235	24	4	21%	7%	97	+1.1	209/288/339	130	235	15	6	18%	7%	80	-0.2	211/280/323	112	244	12	0	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Alex Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	32	45→50	51→55	41→45	46	230/285/395	165	266	18	5	21%	7%	90	+0.6	239/292/376	137	285	14	6	21%	7%	88	+0.4	265/318/403	138	312	14	3	19%	7%	105	+1.1
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2017 · MLB	32	39→49	54→60	44→40	51	206/299/381	175	281	22	2	34%	12%	93	+0.8	174/252/292	118	277	14	4	39%	9%	55	-2.0	119/193/189	70	205	8	1	43%	8%	8	-1.8
✕James McCann 2022 · MLB	32	50→55	50	41→45	44	251/311/403	152	323	19	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	225/282/358	133	288	16	7	26%	6%	80	-0.1	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
●Mitch Garver 2023 · MLB	32	43→46	57→70	42→40	52	231/320/426	195	284	25	5	28%	11%	111	+2.1	226/323/414	188	279	25	3	27%	12%	109	+2.0	212/315/390	178	262	24	2	28%	12%	101	+0.9
●Casey Blake 2006 · MLB	32	48→54	55→60	37→45	50	252/320/444	192	281	23	5	20%	8%	115	+2.4	264/330/447	183	303	21	6	20%	8%	118	+2.7	267/336/442	175	310	19	3	20%	8%	120	+2.8
✕Aledmys Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	47→57	51→55	41→45	45	244/294/402	158	268	20	3	18%	6%	95	+1.0	224/276/346	122	261	12	5	19%	6%	76	-0.4	224/273/331	108	269	8	2	19%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Marcus Thames 2010 · MLB	33	44→46	62→70	35→40	46	243/301/462	219	278	32	3	26%	8%	112	+2.2	247/309/428	181	296	25	4	25%	8%	107	+1.8	273/337/451	177	330	27	0	25%	8%	123	+1.3
●Jorge Soler 2023 · MLB	31	41→51	58→70	37→45	52	224/311/428	203	266	26	2	27%	10%	108	+1.9	242/329/464	222	286	29	2	25%	11%	122	+3.0	240/330/461	221	283	29	1	26%	11%	123	+2.5

Sean Murphy

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps