Mitch Garver

C Seattle Mariners

Age 36 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 9.029 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	MLBSEA	430	.172/.288/.341	15	0	82	0.7
2025	34	MLBSEA	290	.209/.300/.343	9	3	83	0.6
2026	35	AAAScranton/Wilk…	34	.179/.324/.214	0	0	22	—	.167/.265/.200
2026	35	MLBSEA	149	.175/.302/.294	4	1	78	0.3
2027PROJ	36	MLBSEA	137	.205/.309/.356	4	1	92	0.3
2028PROJ	37	MLBSEA	80	.193/.297/.331	2	0	82	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.029First FA2028Options3

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd72

Avg EV71

Barrel%51

xwOBA36

Speed10

CompsDoug Mirabelli (age 36) · Martín Maldonado (age 37) · Curt Casali (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9792vR 76

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .309 / .356

PA137

HR4

K%28

BB%12

BABIP259

ISO134

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.190

POWER50

Barrel%

518.4

Avg EV

7190.6

Bat Spd

7273.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 720 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

312

408

—

wRC+

107

◀◀L

wOBA

327

254

◀◀L

ISO

188

130

◀◀L

BABIP

251

220

◀L

22.4%

35.1%

◀◀L

BB%

12.5%

10.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.5M
Totals		$1M		$0.8M	-$0.5M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$1.3M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$12.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$1.3M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	22	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	225	202	49	15	2	2	19	31	2	0	0	243	314	366	680	124	276	14	8	305	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	504	430	128	29	1	16	61	65	12	7	5	298	400	481	881	184	320	13	12	392	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	520	433	106	24	1	4	69	82	10	5	3	245	361	333	694	88	287	16	13	319	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	47	41	13	5	0	1	6	10	0	2	0	317	404	512	916	195	400	21	13	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	84	76	25	5	0	1	7	21	0	0	0	329	386	434	820	105	436	25	8	364	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	407	358	92	25	0	11	43	86	1	1	3	257	338	419	757	162	305	21	11	335	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	77	70	16	4	0	4	7	17	0	0	1	229	299	457	756	229	245	22	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	52	46	9	1	3	0	6	15	0	0	0	196	288	348	636	152	290	29	12	285	79	-1	+0	-1	+8	+1	0.7
2017	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	372	320	93	29	0	17	50	85	1	2	0	291	388	541	929	250	347	23	13	405	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	335	302	81	19	2	7	29	72	2	0	0	268	336	414	750	146	330	21	9	334	109	+4	+0	-9	+6	+7	0.8
2019	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	359	311	85	16	1	31	41	87	5	0	0	273	367	630	997	357	277	24	11	425	173	+31	+0	+4	+6	+8	5.0
2020	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	81	72	12	1	0	2	7	37	1	0	0	167	250	264	514	97	294	46	9	237	46	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2021	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	243	207	53	15	0	13	31	71	3	1	1	256	361	517	878	261	320	29	13	382	144	+13	-0	+2	+5	+5	2.5
2021	30	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	30	26	6	0	0	0	3	8	1	0	0	231	333	231	564		333	27	10	275	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	215	188	39	7	0	10	23	53	2	1	1	207	300	404	705	197	228	25	11	313	93	-2	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2023	32	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	344	296	80	11	0	19	44	82	3	0	0	270	369	500	869	230	313	24	13	383	138	+16	+0	+1	+7	+7	3.2
2023	32	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	25	19	6	2	0	2	6	7	0	0	0	316	480	737	1.217	421	400	28	24	509	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	287	82	-9	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.7
2025	34	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	290	254	53	5	1	9	30	80	3	3	0	209	300	343	642	134	262	28	10	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2026	35	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	149	126	22	3	0	4	22	49	1	1	0	175	302	294	596	119	247	33	15	281	78	-4	+0	+1	+3	+3	0.3
2026	35	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	34	28	5	1	0	0	6	9	0	0	0	179	324	214	538	36	263	26	18	267	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2498	2169	497	95	7	110	286	679	27	6	2	229	326	432	758	202	278	27	11	336	114	+40	+0	-4	+53	+54	14.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	225	210	38	11	1	2	11	44	2	0	0	181	229	271	500	90	214	20	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	504	451	105	22	1	12	40	90	12	7	5	233	312	366	678	133	260	18	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	520	455	89	22	1	3	47	118	10	5	3	196	285	268	553	73	247	23	9	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	84	78	23	3	0	1	5	25	0	0	0	295	337	372	709	77	408	30	6	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	407	374	77	20	0	7	27	109	1	1	3	206	261	316	577	110	259	27	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	52	46	9	1	3	0	6	15	0	0	0	196	288	348	636	152	290	29	12	286	79	-1	+0	-1	+8	+1	0.7
2017	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	372	338	80	22	0	15	32	102	1	2	0	237	305	435	739	198	294	27	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	304	81	19	2	7	27	72	2	0	0	266	330	411	742	145	330	21	8	329	109	+4	+0	-9	+6	+7	0.8
2019	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	359	311	85	16	1	31	41	87	5	0	0	273	367	630	997	357	277	24	11	424	173	+31	+0	+4	+6	+8	5.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	81	72	12	1	0	2	7	37	1	0	0	167	250	264	514	97	294	46	9	237	46	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	243	207	53	15	0	13	31	71	3	1	1	256	361	517	878	261	320	29	13	381	144	+13	-0	+2	+5	+5	2.5
2021	30	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	30	27	5	0	0	0	2	10	1	0	0	185	267	185	452		291	33	7	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	215	188	38	7	0	9	23	53	2	1	1	202	296	383	679	181	228	25	11	305	93	-2	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	344	298	79	11	0	18	43	82	3	0	0	265	363	483	847	218	313	24	12	372	138	+16	+0	+1	+7	+7	3.2
2023	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	25	21	5	2	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	238	360	476	836	238	308	36	16	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	290	82	-9	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	290	255	53	5	1	9	29	80	3	3	0	208	296	341	637	133	262	28	10	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2026	35	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	149	126	22	3	0	4	22	49	1	1	0	175	302	294	596	119	247	33	15	283	78	-4	+0	+1	+3	+3	0.3
2026	35	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	34	30	5	1	0	0	4	11	0	0	0	167	265	200	465	33	225	32	12	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	225	210	38	11	1	2	11	44	2	0	0	181	229	271	500	90	218	20	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	225	202	49	15	2	2	19	31	2	0	0	243	314	366	680	124	276	14	8	305	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	504	451	105	22	1	12	40	90	12	7	5	233	312	366	678	133	266	18	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	504	430	128	29	1	16	61	65	12	7	5	298	400	481	881	184	320	13	12	392	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	567	498	97	24	1	3	51	129	10	7	3	195	283	265	548	70	251	23	9	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	567	474	119	29	1	5	75	92	10	7	3	251	365	348	713	97	296	16	13	326	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	568	524	115	27	0	9	37	155	1	1	4	219	272	323	595	103	290	27	7	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	568	504	133	34	0	16	57	124	1	1	4	264	340	427	766	163	316	22	10	339	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	384	89	23	3	15	38	117	1	2	0	232	303	424	727	193	292	28	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	424	366	102	30	3	17	56	100	1	2	0	279	376	516	892	238	340	24	13	391	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	304	81	19	2	7	27	72	2	0	0	266	330	411	742	145	327	21	8	329	109	+4	+0	-9	+6	+7	0.8
2018	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	335	302	81	19	2	7	29	72	2	0	0	268	336	414	750	146	330	21	9	334	109	+4	+0	-9	+6	+7	0.8
2019	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	359	311	85	16	1	31	41	87	5	0	0	273	367	630	997	357	277	24	11	424	173	+31	+0	+4	+6	+8	5.0
2019	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	359	311	85	16	1	31	41	87	5	0	0	273	367	630	997	357	277	24	11	425	173	+31	+0	+4	+6	+8	5.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	81	72	12	1	0	2	7	37	1	0	0	167	250	264	514	97	294	46	9	237	46	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	81	72	12	1	0	2	7	37	1	0	0	167	250	264	514	97	294	46	9	237	46	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	234	58	15	0	13	33	81	4	1	1	248	351	479	829	231	317	30	12	363	132	+10	-0	+2	+5	+6	2.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	273	233	59	15	0	13	34	79	4	1	1	253	358	485	843	232	322	29	12	370	132	+10	-0	+2	+5	+6	2.4
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	215	188	38	7	0	9	23	53	2	1	1	202	296	383	679	181	227	25	11	305	93	-2	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2022	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	215	188	39	7	0	10	23	53	2	1	1	207	300	404	705	197	228	25	11	313	93	-2	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	319	84	13	0	19	47	91	3	0	0	263	363	483	846	219	311	25	13	371	137	+16	+0	+1	+7	+8	3.3
2023	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	369	315	86	13	0	21	50	89	3	0	0	273	377	514	891	241	317	24	14	392	137	+16	+0	+1	+7	+8	3.3
2024	33	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	290	82	-9	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.7
2024	33	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	287	82	-9	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	290	255	53	5	1	9	29	80	3	3	0	208	296	341	637	133	260	28	10	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	290	254	53	5	1	9	30	80	3	3	0	209	300	343	642	134	262	28	10	291	83	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	156	27	4	0	4	26	60	1	1	0	173	295	276	571	103	250	33	14	268	67	-7	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.1
2026	35	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	183	154	27	4	0	4	28	58	1	1	0	175	306	279	585	104	250	32	15	278	67	-7	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.1
2013	22	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	225	210	38	11	1	2	11	44	2	0	0	181	229	271	500	90	214	20	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	504	447	105	22	1	12	40	90	12	7	5	235	312	369	681	134	260	18	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	567	501	97	24	1	3	51	129	10	7	3	194	283	263	546	70	247	23	9	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	568	525	115	27	0	9	37	155	1	1	4	219	272	322	594	103	284	27	7	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	382	89	23	3	15	38	117	1	2	0	233	303	427	729	194	294	28	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	303	81	19	2	7	27	72	2	0	0	267	330	413	743	145	330	21	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	359	310	85	16	1	31	41	87	5	0	0	274	367	632	999	358	277	24	11	424	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	81	73	12	1	0	2	7	37	1	0	0	164	250	260	510	96	294	46	9	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	234	58	15	0	13	33	81	4	1	1	248	351	479	829	231	317	30	12	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	215	188	38	7	0	9	23	53	2	1	1	202	296	383	679	181	228	25	11	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	316	84	13	0	19	47	91	3	0	0	266	363	487	850	222	312	25	13	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	290	256	53	5	1	9	29	80	3	3	0	207	296	340	636	133	262	28	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	154	27	4	0	4	26	60	1	1	0	175	295	279	574	104	243	33	14	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	430	367	63	17	0	15	53	133	7	0	0	172	288	341	629	169	216	31	12	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	290	256	53	5	1	9	29	80	3	3	0	207	296	340	636	133	262	28	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	183	154	27	4	0	4	26	60	1	1	0	175	295	279	574	104	243	33	14	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	221	190	40	7	1	7	27	62	2	2	1	207	311	362	674	155	261	28	12	305	92	-2	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	137	119	23	4	0	4	16	38	1	1	0	205	309	356	666	152	259	28	12	302	92	-1	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	80	70	13	2	0	2	9	23	1	0	0	196	299	336	635	140	251	29	11	289	82	-2	+0	-8	+1	+2	-0.6
2028	37	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	80	70	13	2	0	2	9	23	1	0	0	193	297	331	628	137	248	29	11	287	82	-2	+0	-8	+1	+2	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2578	2239	510	97	7	112	295	702	28	6	2	228	325	427	752	200	277	27	11	335	92	+39	+0	-12	+54	+56	14.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	128	24	2	28	74	177	7	2	1	227	324	425	748	198	275	27	11	335	92	+10	+0	-3	+14	+14	3.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5040	4462	981	210	10	156	488	1290	56	24	14	220	305	376	681	156	271	26	10	304	92	+37	+1	-13	+57	+59	14.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	126	27	1	20	63	166	7	3	2	219	303	374	677	155	270	26	10	304	92	+9	+0	-3	+14	+14	3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 34 PAwOBA .262 → .200 (−62)K% 26.5% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.47%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	11.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.940	18.40%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .262 → .200; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .263 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 25 PAwOBA .496 → .358 (−138)K% 28.0% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.00%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	34.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.00%	÷0.991	×0.690	—	×0.952	15.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.993	×0.930	—	×0.952	14.86%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.044	×0.830	—	×0.952	12.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.918	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.035	×0.700	—	×0.952	10.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .496 → .358; ISO .421 → .290; BABIP .400 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 30 PAwOBA .269 → .215 (−54)K% 26.7% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	32.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.55%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	3.05%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.035	×0.930	—	×0.972	29.11%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.830	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .269 → .215; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARochester Red Wings · 372 PAwOBA .396 → .321 (−74)K% 22.8% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.85%	÷0.997	×1.200	—	—	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.44%	÷1.080	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.75%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.26%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.019	×0.930	×0.979	×1.018	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	12.34%	÷1.085	×0.830	×0.979	×1.018	9.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.085	×0.970	×0.979	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.23%	÷0.956	×0.840	—	×1.018	6.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 117, 3B 117, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .396 → .321; ISO .250 → .213; BABIP .347 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 407 PAwOBA .330 → .252 (−77)K% 21.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.13%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	26.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.32%	÷1.039	×0.680	—	×0.998	6.74%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.21%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.977	×0.998	18.38%
Doubles /BIP	9.19%	÷1.108	×0.910	×0.977	×0.998	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.977	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.04%	÷1.301	×0.800	—	×0.998	2.48%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 101, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .330 → .252; ISO .162 → .111; BABIP .305 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARochester Red Wings · 84 PAwOBA .359 → .313 (−46)K% 25.0% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	29.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.55%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.992	×1.033	34.56%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.224	×0.830	×0.992	×1.033	6.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.970	×0.992	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷0.951	×0.840	—	×1.033	1.66%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 145, 3B 94, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .359 → .313; ISO .105 → .080; BABIP .436 → .408. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 520 PAwOBA .316 → .255 (−61)K% 15.8% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.77%	÷0.984	×1.420	—	—	22.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.08%	÷1.072	×0.750	—	×0.988	9.04%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	1.77%
Singles /BIP	21.94%	÷1.040	×0.920	×0.958	×0.988	18.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.84%	÷0.962	×0.960	×0.958	×0.988	6.46%
Triples /BIP	0.28%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.958	×0.988	0.24%
Home runs /BIP	1.14%	÷1.106	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.90%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .316 → .255; ISO .088 → .077; BABIP .287 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 504 PAwOBA .382 → .292 (−90)K% 12.9% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.90%	÷0.977	×1.360	—	—	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.90%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×0.990	7.87%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.84%
Singles /BIP	22.47%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.961	×0.990	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	7.95%	÷1.057	×0.830	×0.961	×0.990	5.94%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷1.034	×0.910	×0.961	×0.990	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	4.38%	÷1.098	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.16%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 106, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 95, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .382 → .292; ISO .184 → .135; BABIP .320 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	4.1	2,715	117	8	228	323	428	+46	-5	16.0	15.7
/162	664	29	2	+11.2	-1.2	3.9	pk7: 15
#1Bob Brenly'81-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	4.5	2,995	91	45	244*	328*	432*	+37	-13	15.0	15.0
/162	664	20	10	+8.1	-2.9	3.3	pk7: 15
#2Robinson Chirinoslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,427 PA	3.7	2,427	95	5	227	320	420	+43	-10	12.9	13.8
/162	664	26	1	+11.9	-2.8	3.5	pk7: 15
#3Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13
#4Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
#5Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#6Elrod Hendricks'68-'79 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,155 PA	3.2	2,155	62	1	224*	308*	401*	+37	-0	8.7	8.7
/162	664	19	0	+11.4	-0.1	2.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mitch Garver (OGILVIE)	36	35	50	40	60	205/309/359	154	261	4	1	28%	12%	92	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Doug Mirabelli 2007 · MLB	36	44	53→50	48→30	46	228/304/398	170	292	21	5	29%	8%	99	+1.2	228/300/390	162	298	20	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	200/276/357	157	261	24	0	32%	9%	79	-0.0
✕Martín Maldonado 2024 · MLB	37	34→44	52→50	45→40	43	191/261/348	157	245	22	2	32%	8%	71	-0.8	196/252/337	141	269	18	4	33%	6%	64	-1.3	159/206/272	113	220	15	0	35%	5%	33	-0.9
✕Curt Casali 2023 · MLB	34	44	49→50	48→30	52	219/317/366	147	293	17	4	29%	11%	96	+1.0	223/315/328	105	288	10	4	24%	10%	86	+0.3	214/312/278	65	277	4	0	22%	10%	74	-0.2
✕Kelly Stinnett 2006 · MLB	36	47	50	46→40	44	240/301/390	150	294	19	4	25%	7%	95	+1.0	212/264/329	117	271	14	5	26%	6%	67	-1.1	177/219/253	76	229	9	0	27%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Robinson Chirinos 2021 · MLB	37	44→46	53→60	43→50	50	226/326/403	178	292	21	4	29%	10%	108	+1.9	217/302/373	156	293	18	5	30%	9%	92	+0.7	192/283/338	146	265	17	2	32%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Adam Rosales 2019 · MLB	36	39→49	50→55	42→45	41	206/258/357	151	260	18	5	28%	6%	72	-0.7	198/246/318	120	268	14	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/200/243	83	229	11	2	34%	4%	20	-2.2
✕Sal Fasano 2008 · MLB	36	42	52→55	44→40	37	220/278/379	159	274	21	4	28%	4%	85	+0.2	203/259/316	113	281	12	6	31%	4%	62	-1.4	175/227/258	82	257	7	4	33%	3%	35	-1.1
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Miguel Olivo 2014 · MLB	36	42→50	54→60	39→50	38	227/259/398	170	272	24	7	27%	4%	81	-0.1	230/270/370	140	313	16	8	31%	5%	78	-0.3	216/254/339	124	304	13	8	32%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Miguel Ojeda 2011 · AAA	36	47→45	46→45	43→45	51	235/298/365	131	265	14	8	18%	8%	88	+0.4	228/284/331	103	275	10	7	20%	7%	74	-0.5	225/281/317	91	274	8	6	20%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Cody Ransom 2011 · MLB	35	40→39	51→55	48→50	43	212/270/375	162	264	19	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	216/286/399	183	290	23	8	32%	8%	92	+0.7	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Jonathan Aceves 2014 · AAA	36	41	47→50	44→30	44	210/261/340	131	253	15	5	24%	6%	68	-1.0	220/279/335	115	266	13	3	22%	6%	74	-0.6	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Humberto Cota 2015 · AAA	36	41	45→50	47→30	44	210/269/324	114	261	14	5	26%	6%	68	-1.0	203/271/321	118	264	14	4	27%	8%	68	-1.0	184/259/289	106	240	13	0	28%	9%	56	-0.7
✕A.J. Ellis 2018 · MLB	37	45→54	48→45	45→40	54	228/311/370	143	252	17	5	18%	9%	95	+0.9	247/334/371	124	299	12	6	20%	11%	103	+1.5	266/370/339	73	343	3	0	20%	14%	109	+0.6
✕Mike DiFelice 2006 · MLB	37	40	48→50	42→30	45	210/270/351	141	249	16	5	23%	7%	74	-0.5	214/272/317	103	279	10	4	26%	6%	67	-1.1	208/260/284	76	277	6	0	26%	5%	54	-0.8
✕John Buck 2014 · MLB	34	42→52	51→60	43→30	48	221/293/376	155	261	21	3	24%	8%	89	+0.5	232/296/358	126	288	15	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	229/290/300	70	298	6	0	24%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Rod Barajas 2012 · MLB	36	43→47	56→60	46→30	43	232/274/418	186	243	26	2	18%	4%	92	+0.7	225/287/386	161	250	21	4	20%	7%	89	+0.5	202/270/342	140	220	20	0	19%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Vance Wilson 2009 · MLB	36	49	50	43→40	44	248/299/406	157	286	18	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	232/292/386	154	280	19	6	24%	6%	91	+0.7	213/266/351	138	253	20	0	24%	4%	71	-0.3
✕Erik Kratz 2016 · MLB	36	41→44	51→60	45	46	218/270/380	162	243	19	4	21%	6%	81	-0.1	201/253/323	122	246	14	6	24%	5%	61	-1.5	213/269/346	133	243	17	4	20%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Chris Gimenez 2018 · MLB	35	44→54	48→50	49→45	51	221/308/360	139	279	16	5	26%	10%	91	+0.7	201/274/317	116	285	12	7	32%	8%	68	-1.0	155/216/231	76	233	7	4	35%	6%	26	-2.0

Mitch Garver

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps