Luis Urías

2B Reno Aces

Age 30 R/R 5'9" / 202 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 4.716 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAASEA	350	.260/.382/.413	10	8	76	—	.211/.306/.309
2024	27	MLBSEA	109	.191/.303/.394	4	0	102	0.2
2025	28	AAAMIL	57	.260/.351/.380	1	1	72	—	.250/.316/.365
2025	28	MLBOAK	330	.230/.315/.338	8	2	85	-0.1
2026	29	AAA/ROK/INTL2 orgs	182	.342/.404/.509	4	1	122	—	.301/.338/.427
2026	29	MLBTOR	59	.250/.328/.481	3	0	122	0.4
2027PROJ45% MLB	30	MLBARI	98	.247/.321/.385	2	1	97	0.2
2028PROJ	31	MLBARI	203	.242/.316/.375	5	1	93	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.716First FA2029

2027Arb-2$2M2028Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA45

Barrel%32

Bat Spd32

Speed17

Avg EV15

CompsElias Díaz (age 30) · Kevin Plawecki (age 30) · David Freitas (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9897vR 92

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .321 / .385

PA98

HR2

K%16

BB%8

BABIP275

ISO114

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

200.227

POWER

Barrel%

325.8

Avg EV

1586.4

Bat Spd

3269.4

SPEED

Sprint

1725.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 439 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

123

316

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

276

309

▶R

ISO

151

124

◀◀L

BABIP

189

268

▶▶R

19.5%

17.4%

▶R

BB%

9.8%

8.9%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2018

Service 4.716 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	189	164	49	5	1	0	19	14	4	10	6	299	385	341	726	43	325	7	10	334	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	25	19	3	1	0	0	3	5	2	1	0	158	333	211	544	53	214	20	12	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	224	193	56	5	1	0	16	18	9	5	10	290	372	326	698	36	318	8	7	317	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	130	107	30	3	0	0	11	15	4	0	0	280	369	308	677	28	326	12	8	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	15	9	4	0	0	1	5	1	1	1	0	444	667	778	1.444	333	429	7	33	601	229	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	531	466	154	26	5	5	40	36	13	7	13	330	398	440	838	109	348	7	8	369	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	526	442	131	20	4	3	68	65	8	7	5	296	400	380	780	84	340	12	13	353	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	70	54	17	5	2	0	14	5	0	0	3	315	456	481	937	167	333	7	20	407	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	53	48	10	1	0	2	3	10	1	1	0	208	269	354	623	146	216	19	6	276	73	-2	+0	+2	+2	+1	0.4
2018	21	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	533	450	133	30	7	8	67	109	11	2	1	296	400	447	846	151	373	20	13	377	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	249	215	48	8	1	4	25	56	9	0	1	223	329	326	655	102	284	22	10	305	95	-2	-0	-3	+8	+5	0.9
2019	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	339	295	93	19	4	19	36	62	6	7	2	315	401	600	1.001	285	343	18	11	431	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	141	118	34	5	0	5	18	22	4	7	7	288	400	458	858	169	319	16	13	383	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	120	109	26	4	1	0	10	32	1	2	2	239	308	294	602	55	338	27	8	279	78	-3	-0	+3	+0	+3	0.3
2021	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	570	490	122	25	1	23	63	116	10	5	1	249	345	445	789	196	280	20	11	349	120	+14	+1	-6	+6	+12	2.7
2022	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	472	406	97	17	1	16	50	99	11	1	2	239	338	404	742	165	274	21	11	332	111	+6	-1	+1	+2	+10	1.9
2022	25	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	31	27	4	1	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	148	258	185	443	37	200	23	10	220	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	177	144	28	6	0	3	21	41	10	0	0	194	333	299	632	104	250	23	12	300	86	-3	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.0
2023	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	139	116	27	5	0	4	19	34	2	1	1	233	350	379	730	147	287	24	14	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	100	85	15	3	0	2	12	14	3	1	0	176	300	282	582	106	188	14	12	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	109	94	18	7	0	4	9	34	6	0	0	191	303	394	696	202	250	31	8	315	102	+0	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2024	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	350	288	75	12	1	10	48	57	9	8	1	260	382	413	795	153	289	16	14	357	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Athletics	—	330	287	66	7	0	8	31	45	6	2	1	230	315	338	653	108	245	14	9	296	85	-6	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.1
2025	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	57	50	13	3	0	1	6	6	1	1	0	260	351	380	731	120	279	11	11	333	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	59	52	13	3	0	3	6	10	0	0	0	250	328	481	808	231	250	17	10	349	122	+2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.4
2026	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	117	108	39	9	1	3	7	9	0	1	0	361	400	546	946	185	367	8	6	409	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	18	16	4	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	250	333	250	583		333	22	6	281	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	47	37	12	4	0	1	7	1	1	0	0	324	444	514	958	189	297	2	15	408	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2139	1845	428	78	4	63	218	443	54	11	7	232	329	381	710	149	270	21	10	321	103	+8	-1	-12	+24	+46	6.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	189	171	44	4	1	0	12	20	4	10	6	257	321	292	613	35	286	11	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	224	197	56	5	1	0	12	25	9	5	10	284	353	320	673	36	308	11	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	15	10	4	0	0	1	4	1	1	1	0	400	600	700	1.300	300	379	7	27	506	229	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	531	479	153	23	4	5	28	47	13	7	13	319	373	415	789	96	337	9	5	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	526	463	136	19	5	3	47	79	8	7	5	294	369	376	745	82	341	15	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	53	48	10	1	0	2	3	10	1	1	0	208	269	354	623	146	216	19	6	276	73	-2	+0	+2	+2	+1	0.4
2018	21	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	533	466	114	23	5	6	51	143	11	2	1	245	333	354	687	109	335	27	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	249	215	49	9	1	4	25	56	9	0	1	228	333	335	668	107	284	22	10	308	95	-2	-0	-3	+8	+5	0.9
2019	22	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	339	307	76	14	3	16	24	83	6	7	2	248	315	469	784	221	286	24	7	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	120	109	26	4	1	0	10	32	1	2	2	239	308	294	602	55	338	27	8	283	78	-3	-0	+3	+0	+3	0.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	570	496	123	27	1	22	60	116	10	5	1	248	341	440	781	192	280	20	11	346	120	+14	+1	-6	+6	+12	2.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	472	406	97	18	1	15	50	99	11	1	2	239	338	399	737	160	274	21	11	333	111	+6	-1	+1	+2	+10	1.9
2022	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	31	28	4	1	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	143	226	179	404	36	177	29	6	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	177	146	27	5	0	3	21	41	10	0	0	185	328	281	609	96	250	23	12	295	86	-3	+0	-2	+1	+4	0.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	139	122	24	4	0	3	13	42	2	1	1	197	285	303	588	107	267	30	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	109	94	18	7	0	4	9	34	6	0	0	191	303	394	696	202	250	31	8	319	102	+0	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2024	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	350	304	64	10	1	6	33	68	9	8	1	211	306	309	616	99	245	19	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	330	290	64	6	0	8	31	45	6	2	1	221	309	324	633	103	245	14	9	293	85	-6	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.1
2025	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	57	52	13	3	0	1	4	7	1	1	0	250	316	365	681	115	255	12	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	59	52	13	3	0	3	6	10	0	0	0	250	328	481	808	231	250	17	10	349	122	+2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.4
2026	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	117	110	35	8	1	2	5	11	0	1	0	318	348	464	811	145	326	9	4	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	18	16	3	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	188	278	188	465		257	33	6	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	191	51	5	1	0	14	23	6	11	6	267	336	304	640	37	302	11	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	214	183	52	6	1	0	22	19	6	11	6	284	379	328	707	44	315	9	10	326	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	354	309	87	7	1	0	18	40	13	5	10	282	347	311	658	29	322	11	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	354	300	86	8	1	0	27	33	13	5	10	287	371	320	691	33	321	9	8	311	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	546	489	158	23	4	6	32	49	14	8	13	323	381	423	805	100	348	9	6	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	546	475	158	26	5	6	45	37	14	8	13	333	406	446	852	114	349	7	8	376	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	596	524	154	22	5	3	54	90	8	7	8	294	369	372	741	78	347	15	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	596	496	148	25	6	3	82	70	8	7	8	298	406	391	797	93	340	12	14	360	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	586	514	124	24	5	8	54	153	12	3	1	241	328	354	682	113	326	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	586	498	143	31	7	10	70	119	12	3	1	287	388	438	826	151	358	20	12	368	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	729	646	156	28	6	25	61	172	19	14	10	241	325	420	745	178	290	24	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	729	628	175	32	5	28	79	140	19	14	10	279	376	479	855	201	318	19	11	379	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	120	109	26	4	1	0	10	32	1	2	2	239	308	294	602	55	338	27	8	283	78	-3	-0	+3	+0	+3	0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	120	109	26	4	1	0	10	32	1	2	2	239	308	294	602	55	338	27	8	279	78	-3	-0	+3	+0	+3	0.3
2021	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	570	496	123	27	1	22	60	116	10	5	1	248	341	440	781	192	280	20	11	346	120	+14	+1	-6	+6	+12	2.7
2021	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	570	490	122	25	1	23	63	116	10	5	1	249	345	445	789	196	280	20	11	349	120	+14	+1	-6	+6	+12	2.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	503	434	101	19	1	15	52	108	12	1	2	233	331	385	716	152	272	21	10	323	105	+3	-1	+1	+2	+11	1.6
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	503	433	101	18	1	16	53	106	12	1	2	233	333	390	724	157	269	21	11	325	105	+3	-1	+1	+2	+11	1.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	416	354	69	13	0	8	45	109	15	2	1	195	312	299	611	105	255	26	11	286	79	-10	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
2023	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	416	345	70	14	0	9	52	89	15	2	1	203	331	322	653	119	245	21	12	304	79	-10	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	398	84	17	1	11	42	102	15	8	1	211	310	342	652	131	253	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	459	382	93	19	1	14	57	91	15	8	1	243	363	408	771	165	281	20	12	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	387	342	77	9	0	9	35	52	7	3	1	225	310	330	640	105	239	13	9	291	83	-8	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.2
2025	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	387	337	79	10	0	9	37	51	7	3	1	234	320	344	665	110	250	13	10	302	83	-8	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.2
2026	29	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	241	220	63	13	1	6	14	33	2	1	0	286	335	436	771	150	306	14	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	241	213	68	16	1	7	21	24	2	1	0	319	386	502	888	183	326	10	9	385	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	192	51	5	1	0	14	23	6	11	6	266	336	302	639	36	286	11	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	354	320	87	7	1	0	18	40	13	5	10	272	347	300	647	28	308	11	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	546	495	158	23	4	6	32	49	14	8	13	319	381	418	799	99	338	9	6	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	596	529	154	22	5	3	54	90	8	7	8	291	369	369	737	78	341	15	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	586	515	124	24	5	8	54	153	12	3	1	241	328	353	681	113	324	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	729	643	156	28	6	25	61	172	19	14	10	243	325	421	747	179	285	24	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	120	108	26	4	1	0	10	32	1	2	2	241	308	296	605	56	338	27	8	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	570	495	123	27	1	22	60	116	10	5	1	248	341	440	781	192	280	20	11	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	503	434	101	19	1	15	52	108	12	1	2	233	331	385	716	152	268	21	10	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	416	353	69	13	0	8	45	109	15	2	1	195	312	300	612	105	257	26	11	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	399	84	17	1	11	42	102	15	8	1	211	310	341	651	130	246	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	387	342	77	9	0	9	35	52	7	3	1	225	310	330	640	105	246	13	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	241	223	63	13	1	6	14	33	2	1	0	283	335	430	765	148	296	14	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	399	84	17	1	11	42	102	15	8	1	211	310	341	651	130	246	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	387	342	77	9	0	9	35	52	7	3	1	225	310	330	640	105	246	13	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	241	223	63	13	1	6	14	33	2	1	0	283	335	430	765	148	296	14	6	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ARI	45%	328	293	70	12	1	8	27	54	5	3	1	241	317	377	694	136	267	16	8	311	97	-1	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	ARI	45%	98	88	21	4	0	2	8	16	2	1	0	247	321	385	706	138	275	16	8	316	97	-0	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	203	181	44	8	1	5	17	34	3	1	0	237	312	367	679	130	264	17	8	305	93	-2	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	203	181	44	8	1	5	17	34	3	1	0	242	316	375	691	132	272	17	8	310	93	-2	+0	-4	+1	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2342	2026	472	86	5	68	235	477	57	12	7	233	328	381	710	148	270	20	10	320	99	+6	-0	-16	+24	+51	6.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	131	24	1	19	65	132	16	3	2	233	329	381	709	148	270	20	10	320	99	+2	-0	-4	+7	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6141	5401	1364	227	29	124	526	1149	140	73	57	253	335	374	709	122	298	19	9	314	99	+5	-0	-17	+25	+55	7.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	144	24	3	13	56	122	15	8	6	252	335	372	707	121	297	19	9	314	99	+1	-0	-4	+6	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 117 PAwOBA .404 → .348 (−56)K% 7.7% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	9.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.98%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.26%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.006	×0.982	24.13%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.006	×0.982	7.46%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.006	×0.982	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .404 → .348; ISO .185 → .147; BABIP .367 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 18 PAwOBA .274 → .187 (−87)K% 22.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.24%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	3.76%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	25.69%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .274 → .187; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 57 PAwOBA .325 → .275 (−50)K% 10.5% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.53%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.21%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.64%
Singles /BIP	20.45%	÷0.983	×0.930	×1.006	×0.992	19.33%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷0.973	×0.830	×1.006	×0.992	5.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.006	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .325 → .275; ISO .120 → .090; BABIP .279 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 350 PAwOBA .352 → .281 (−71)K% 16.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.29%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.71%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.39%
HBP% /PA	2.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.42%
Singles /BIP	22.51%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	19.75%
Doubles /BIP	5.19%	÷1.014	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	4.05%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	4.33%	÷1.142	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .281; ISO .153 → .108; BABIP .289 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 139 PAwOBA .326 → .274 (−52)K% 24.5% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.46%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	30.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.67%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.65%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.38%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.972	×1.018	21.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷0.971	×0.830	×0.972	×1.018	5.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.972	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷0.905	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .326 → .274; ISO .147 → .118; BABIP .287 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 31 PAwOBA .215 → .172 (−44)K% 22.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷1.027	×0.680	—	×0.998	6.40%
HBP% /PA	3.23%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	2.70%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.060	×0.920	—	×0.998	12.99%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.973	×0.910	—	×0.998	4.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .215 → .172; ISO .037 → .034; BABIP .200 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 339 PAwOBA .420 → .340 (−80)K% 18.3% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.29%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.03%	÷1.050	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.12%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.82%
Singles /BIP	21.89%	÷1.033	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	19.02%
Doubles /BIP	8.15%	÷1.044	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	6.31%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	1.54%
Home runs /BIP	8.15%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.03%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .420 → .340; ISO .285 → .233; BABIP .343 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 533 PAwOBA .369 → .307 (−63)K% 20.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	26.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.57%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.050	9.50%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	2.12%
Singles /BIP	25.81%	÷1.032	×0.900	×1.035	×1.050	24.48%
Doubles /BIP	8.80%	÷1.098	×0.810	×1.035	×1.050	7.06%
Triples /BIP	2.05%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.035	×1.050	1.57%
Home runs /BIP	2.35%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.84%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .369 → .307; ISO .151 → .115; BABIP .373 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Lamblast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,650 PA	4.0	2,650	96	18	235	326	427	+7	+3	12.0	12.1
/162	664	24	5	+1.7	+0.8	3.0	pk7: 12
#2Luis Alicea'88-'02 * career totals — 13 seasons, 4,613 PA	6.9	4,613	47	81	250*	336*	368*	+8	-9	8.7	9.3
/162	664	7	12	+1.1	-1.3	1.3	pk7: 10
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	3.7	2,440	70	13	233	325	381	+10	-9	8.2	7.9
/162	664	19	3	+2.8	-2.3	2.2	pk7: 8
#4Bernie Allen'62-'73 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,823 PA	5.8	3,823	73	13	245*	319*	390*	+13	-30	6.4	7.4
/162	664	13	2	+2.3	-5.2	1.1	pk7: 8
#5Cavan Biggiolast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,937 PA	2.9	1,937	52	33	223	339	373	+5	-8	6.8	6.8
/162	664	18	11	+1.8	-2.8	2.3	pk7: 7
#6Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Urías (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	239/314/374	135	267	6	2	16%	8%	97	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Elias Díaz 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	44→50	44→45	49	249/304/360	111	287	11	3	18%	7%	88	+0.5	236/293/387	151	270	18	2	19%	7%	91	+0.7	236/292/382	147	273	17	0	20%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Kevin Plawecki 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	46→45	46→30	49	249/320/387	138	293	13	5	19%	8%	101	+1.4	248/310/353	105	293	9	4	18%	7%	89	+0.5	238/300/320	82	288	6	0	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕David Freitas 2019 · MLB	30	52→60	43→45	48→40	46	251/304/367	115	305	9	3	20%	6%	90	+0.6	261/325/388	127	315	13	4	20%	8%	103	+1.5	257/318/373	116	309	13	0	20%	7%	95	+0.3
✕Gerald Laird 2010 · MLB	30	48→47	42→50	46→50	50	233/301/342	109	269	8	7	17%	7%	84	+0.1	230/292/339	109	266	9	7	16%	7%	79	-0.2	262/328/360	98	303	6	3	14%	8%	98	+0.3
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	235/297/355	120	288	13	3	23%	7%	85	+0.2	238/316/395	157	299	19	5	26%	9%	102	+1.5	217/309/355	139	284	17	0	28%	11%	90	+0.2
✕Austin Nola 2020 · MLB	30	49→52	46→45	48→45	49	244/312/377	133	296	14	6	22%	8%	96	+1.0	257/328/392	135	300	13	5	18%	8%	105	+1.7	259/334/370	111	295	10	1	15%	8%	103	+0.7
✕P.J. Higgins 2023 · MLB	30	51→54	46→45	49→40	50	249/324/388	139	320	13	5	25%	9%	103	+1.5	227/282/338	111	299	10	3	26%	7%	75	-0.5	212/261/304	93	278	9	0	26%	5%	57	-1.4
✕Jose Castillo 2011 · MLB	30	49→57	45→50	48→50	48	242/294/377	135	281	12	7	19%	7%	88	+0.5	274/306/403	129	289	15	14	11%	4%	99	+1.2	283/310/415	132	298	16	13	11%	3%	102	+1.0
✕Yuniesky Betancourt 2012 · MLB	30	51→60	46→50	41→50	45	252/277/386	134	261	14	4	11%	3%	84	+0.1	233/261/382	149	247	17	3	14%	4%	78	-0.3	219/243/343	123	232	15	0	14%	3%	62	-0.7
✕Jason Phillips 2007 · MLB	30	47→57	44→45	37→30	47	233/282/351	117	253	12	3	14%	5%	78	-0.3	226/273/337	111	251	11	5	15%	5%	72	-0.7	212/256/297	85	232	8	0	13%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Andy Ibáñez 2023 · MLB	30	49→56	45→50	49→45	48	238/291/364	126	269	12	8	16%	6%	84	+0.2	245/301/386	141	287	15	8	20%	7%	94	+0.9	247/306/390	143	290	15	7	20%	7%	96	+0.6
●Marco Scutaro 2007 · MLB	31	53→63	45	51→45	55	256/321/390	134	284	10	7	14%	9%	101	+1.4	261/339/374	113	287	10	8	12%	10%	105	+1.7	272/347/387	115	291	10	8	10%	10%	111	+2.2
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→54	44→50	49→40	48	259/314/378	119	292	12	5	16%	6%	97	+1.1	229/296/348	119	289	11	7	23%	8%	83	+0.1	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Ramon Martinez 2003 · MLB	30	52	45	47→40	51	255/314/382	127	276	11	6	13%	7%	97	+1.1	256/312/358	102	290	8	4	14%	7%	91	+0.6	262/316/344	82	297	5	1	13%	7%	89	+0.2
✕T.J. Rivera 2019 · MLB	30	54→64	45	46→45	44	267/307/395	128	301	13	5	16%	4%	97	+1.1	230/277/351	121	282	12	8	22%	5%	76	-0.4	217/256/330	113	265	12	2	23%	4%	63	-0.7
✕Conor Gillaspie 2017 · MLB	30	51→58	47→50	42→40	46	254/294/399	145	284	13	4	16%	5%	94	+0.9	233/278/362	129	258	13	9	15%	5%	79	-0.2	210/246/300	89	231	7	8	12%	4%	50	-0.8
✕Chris Gomez 2001 · MLB	30	48→54	43→45	49→40	57	233/309/337	104	252	11	8	13%	10%	85	+0.2	251/295/385	134	268	13	6	12%	5%	91	+0.7	284/345/353	69	309	5	5	9%	8%	102	+0.6
✕John Baker 2011 · MLB	30	53→59	45	44→45	51	259/330/389	131	314	12	3	21%	9%	105	+1.7	227/302/319	92	292	7	6	23%	9%	79	-0.2	193/263/235	42	263	3	2	26%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1

Luis Urías

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps