Austin Nola

C Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 37 R/R 6'0" / 197 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	33	AAASD	30	.185/.267/.222	0	0	9	—	.179/.233/.214
2023	33	MLBSD	154	.146/.260/.192	1	0	35	-0.7
2024	34	AAAKC	191	.174/.261/.298	5	0	8	—	.138/.200/.216
2025	35	AAACOL	107	.347/.415/.474	1	0	98	—	.293/.340/.404
2025	35	MLBCOL	41	.184/.225/.211	0	0	17	-0.1
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	37	MLBCOL	11	.232/.290/.343	0	0	69	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBCOL	0	.221/.276/.316	0	0	59	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2025

xwOBA41

Avg EV40

Bat Spd27

Speed16

Barrel%10

CompsCorky Miller (age 37) · Matt Treanor (age 36) · Jamie Burke (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .290 / .343

PA11

HR0

K%18

BB%9

BABIP284

ISO102

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractPOW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT—

xAVG

390.242

POWER35

Barrel%

101.9

Avg EV

4088.3

Bat Spd

2768.9

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED38

Sprint

1625.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$-0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	205	175	38	10	0	1	24	26	1	5	2	217	315	291	606	74	248	13	12	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	489	413	96	22	3	1	54	92	8	6	3	232	333	308	640	75	295	19	11	291	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	595	499	129	21	5	1	77	94	12	8	5	259	371	327	697	68	313	16	13	323	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	59	47	14	4	1	0	10	2	2	2	0	298	441	426	866	128	311	3	17	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	238	207	58	11	1	0	22	40	3	0	1	280	358	343	701	63	343	17	9	315	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	296	256	54	13	1	1	27	50	3	0	0	211	294	281	575	70	249	17	9	259	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	407	372	97	23	1	6	24	56	2	4	1	261	309	376	685	116	293	14	6	301	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	28	22	6	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	273	429	318	747	45	286	4	21	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	105	89	18	4	0	1	10	16	1	0	0	202	290	281	571	79	233	15	10	254	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	197	168	42	7	0	2	25	26	2	3	2	250	354	327	681	77	284	13	13	314	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	262	226	63	16	0	2	27	43	7	2	0	279	373	376	749	97	333	16	10	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	267	238	64	12	1	10	23	63	4	1	0	269	343	454	797	185	325	24	9	352	125	+8	+0	-3	-10	+6	0.1
2019	29	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	229	196	64	15	1	7	29	40	2	4	1	327	419	520	939	194	377	17	13	412	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	67	64	15	3	0	0	3	16	0	0	1	234	269	281	550	47	312	24	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	184	161	44	9	1	7	18	34	3	0	0	273	357	472	829	199	303	18	10	364	132	+7	+0	+6	+3	+4	2.1
2021	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	194	173	47	12	0	2	14	19	5	0	1	272	344	376	719	104	292	10	7	324	110	+2	-0	+5	+4	+4	1.6
2021	31	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	39	33	10	1	0	1	5	7	1	0	0	303	410	424	834	121	360	18	13	380	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	397	347	87	15	0	4	34	60	6	2	1	251	328	329	657	78	284	15	9	295	88	-6	+0	-5	+7	+9	0.5
2023	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	154	130	19	3	0	1	18	31	2	0	0	146	260	192	452	46	184	20	12	218	35	-12	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.7
2023	33	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	30	27	5	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	185	267	222	489	37	263	27	10	233	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	161	28	5	0	5	17	45	2	0	0	174	261	298	559	124	205	24	9	243	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	41	38	7	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	184	225	211	436	26	212	12	5	198	17	-4	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.1
2025	35	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	107	95	33	7	1	1	10	14	1	0	0	347	415	474	889	126	395	13	9	394	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1237	1087	268	52	2	24	109	212	20	3	2	247	326	364	691	118	282	17	9	309	95	-7	-0	+2	+10	+27	3.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	205	182	35	9	0	1	17	38	1	5	2	192	265	258	523	66	229	19	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	489	426	83	19	3	1	41	128	8	6	3	195	278	261	538	66	261	26	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	595	525	124	21	4	1	51	114	12	8	5	236	318	297	615	61	291	19	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	238	214	57	10	1	0	15	51	3	0	1	266	323	322	646	56	331	21	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	296	265	51	12	1	1	18	63	3	0	0	192	252	257	508	64	226	21	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	407	379	88	21	1	5	17	70	2	4	1	232	269	332	601	100	265	17	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	105	95	17	4	0	1	4	21	1	0	0	179	220	253	473	74	206	20	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	197	177	39	7	0	1	16	33	2	3	2	220	292	277	569	56	255	17	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	262	234	54	14	0	2	19	53	7	2	0	231	308	316	624	85	282	20	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	267	239	64	12	1	10	22	63	4	1	0	268	340	452	792	184	325	24	8	353	125	+8	+0	-3	-10	+6	0.1
2019	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	229	206	52	11	1	5	19	52	2	4	1	252	322	388	710	136	304	23	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	184	162	45	10	1	7	17	34	3	0	0	278	357	481	839	204	303	18	9	364	132	+7	+0	+6	+3	+4	2.1
2021	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	194	173	48	13	0	2	14	19	5	0	1	277	349	387	736	110	292	10	7	330	110	+2	-0	+5	+4	+4	1.6
2021	31	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	39	35	9	1	0	1	3	9	1	0	0	257	333	371	705	114	306	23	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	397	348	89	16	0	4	33	60	6	2	1	256	331	336	667	80	284	15	8	298	88	-6	+0	-5	+7	+9	0.5
2023	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	154	130	19	3	0	1	18	31	2	0	0	146	260	192	452	46	184	20	12	220	35	-12	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.7
2023	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	30	28	5	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	179	233	214	448	36	234	33	7	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	167	23	4	0	3	11	55	2	0	0	138	200	216	416	78	168	29	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	41	38	7	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	184	225	211	436	26	212	12	5	193	17	-4	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.1
2025	35	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	107	99	29	6	1	1	6	18	1	0	0	293	340	404	744	111	332	17	6	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	205	182	35	9	0	1	17	38	1	5	2	192	265	258	523	66	236	19	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	205	175	38	10	0	1	24	26	1	5	2	217	315	291	606	74	248	13	12	277	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	489	426	83	19	3	1	41	128	8	6	3	195	278	261	538	66	274	26	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	489	413	96	22	3	1	54	92	8	6	3	232	333	308	640	75	295	19	11	291	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	654	577	137	24	5	1	56	125	14	10	5	237	320	302	621	64	298	19	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	654	546	143	25	6	1	87	96	14	10	5	262	377	335	712	73	313	15	13	329	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	534	480	107	21	2	1	32	114	6	0	1	223	280	281	561	58	283	21	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	534	463	112	24	2	1	49	90	6	0	1	242	322	309	631	67	291	17	9	284	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	435	406	94	23	1	5	18	75	2	4	1	232	268	330	598	99	272	17	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	435	394	103	24	1	6	30	57	2	4	1	261	317	373	690	112	292	13	7	305	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	302	272	56	11	0	2	20	54	3	3	2	206	268	268	536	62	248	18	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	302	257	60	11	0	3	35	42	3	3	2	233	332	311	643	78	266	14	12	293	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	262	234	54	14	0	2	19	53	7	2	0	231	308	316	624	85	287	20	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	262	226	63	16	0	2	27	43	7	2	0	279	373	376	749	97	333	16	10	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	563	506	132	27	2	17	47	131	6	5	2	261	331	423	754	162	319	23	8	333	111	+8	+0	-3	-10	+12	0.7
2019	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	563	498	143	30	2	17	55	119	6	5	2	287	365	458	823	171	345	21	10	364	111	+8	+0	-3	-10	+12	0.7
2020	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	184	162	45	10	1	7	17	34	3	0	0	278	357	481	839	204	309	18	9	364	132	+7	+0	+6	+3	+4	2.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	184	161	44	9	1	7	18	34	3	0	0	273	357	472	829	199	303	18	10	364	132	+7	+0	+6	+3	+4	2.1
2021	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	233	208	57	14	0	3	17	28	6	0	1	274	346	385	731	111	302	12	7	323	105	+1	-0	+5	+4	+5	1.6
2021	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	233	206	57	13	0	3	19	26	6	0	1	277	355	383	738	107	302	11	8	334	105	+1	-0	+5	+4	+5	1.6
2022	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	397	348	89	16	0	4	33	60	6	2	1	256	331	336	667	80	290	15	8	298	88	-6	+0	-5	+7	+9	0.5
2022	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	397	347	87	15	0	4	34	60	6	2	1	251	328	329	657	78	284	15	9	295	88	-6	+0	-5	+7	+9	0.5
2023	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	184	158	24	4	0	1	20	41	2	0	0	152	256	196	452	44	198	22	11	214	31	-15	+0	-2	+3	+4	-1.0
2023	33	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	184	157	24	4	0	1	21	39	2	0	0	153	261	197	459	45	197	21	11	220	31	-15	+0	-2	+3	+4	-1.0
2024	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	167	23	4	0	3	11	55	2	0	0	138	200	216	416	78	182	29	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	161	28	5	0	5	17	45	2	0	0	174	261	298	559	124	205	24	9	243	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	137	36	7	1	1	8	23	1	0	0	263	308	350	659	88	307	16	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	148	133	40	8	1	1	12	19	1	0	0	301	363	398	762	98	342	13	8	339	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	205	185	35	9	0	1	17	38	1	5	2	189	265	254	519	65	229	19	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	489	437	83	19	3	1	41	128	8	6	3	190	278	254	532	64	261	26	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	654	579	137	24	5	1	56	125	14	10	5	237	320	301	620	64	291	19	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	534	491	107	21	2	1	32	114	6	0	1	218	280	275	555	57	273	21	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	435	412	94	23	1	5	18	75	2	4	1	228	268	325	593	97	265	17	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	302	276	56	11	0	2	20	54	3	3	2	203	268	264	532	62	238	18	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	262	234	54	14	0	2	19	53	7	2	0	231	308	316	624	85	282	20	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	563	505	132	27	2	17	47	131	6	5	2	261	331	424	755	162	315	23	8	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	184	162	45	10	1	7	17	34	3	0	0	278	357	481	839	204	303	18	9	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	233	208	57	14	0	3	17	28	6	0	1	274	346	385	731	111	295	12	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	397	355	89	16	0	4	33	60	6	2	1	251	331	330	660	79	284	15	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	184	160	24	4	0	1	20	41	2	0	0	150	256	194	449	44	192	22	11	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	176	23	4	0	3	11	55	2	0	0	131	200	205	405	74	168	29	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	138	36	7	1	1	8	23	1	0	0	261	308	348	656	87	299	16	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	191	176	23	4	0	3	11	55	2	0	0	131	200	205	405	74	168	29	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	138	36	7	1	1	8	23	1	0	0	261	308	348	656	87	299	16	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	37	MLB MLE	COL	10%	173	158	35	7	1	2	11	37	2	2	1	222	280	320	600	99	272	21	6	271	69	-6	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	37	MLB CTX	COL	10%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	232	290	343	632	110	284	18	9	284	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	COL	0%	80	74	15	3	0	1	5	17	1	0	0	211	267	296	563	85	262	21	6	255	59	-4	+0	-8	+1	+2	-0.9
2028	38	MLB CTX	COL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	221	276	316	592	95	274	—	—	267	59	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1237	1087	268	52	2	24	109	212	20	3	2	247	326	364	691	118	282	17	9	309	70	-7	-0	+2	+10	+27	3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	141	27	1	13	57	111	11	2	1	247	327	366	693	119	282	17	9	309	70	-3	-0	+1	+5	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4968	4435	1009	211	16	51	368	999	69	38	18	228	297	317	614	89	280	20	7	271	70	-14	+0	-7	+14	+31	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	133	28	2	7	48	131	9	5	2	229	298	321	618	91	282	20	7	271	70	-7	+0	-3	+6	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 107 PAwOBA .384 → .313 (−71)K% 13.1% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.08%	÷0.945	×1.200	—	—	16.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.41%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.35%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.83%
Singles /BIP	29.63%	÷1.047	×0.930	×1.031	×0.940	25.49%
Doubles /BIP	8.64%	÷1.029	×0.830	×1.031	×0.940	6.76%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.028	×0.970	×1.031	×0.940	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	1.23%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .384 → .313; ISO .126 → .099; BABIP .395 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 191 PAwOBA .238 → .180 (−58)K% 23.6% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.56%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	28.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.50%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.93%
Singles /BIP	15.52%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.970	×0.940	13.07%
Doubles /BIP	4.31%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.970	×0.940	3.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.935	×0.970	×0.970	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.31%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .238 → .180; ISO .124 → .085; BABIP .205 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 30 PAwOBA .228 → .181 (−47)K% 26.7% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.958	×0.930	—	×0.940	19.21%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .228 → .181; ISO .037 → .028; BABIP .263 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 39 PAwOBA .371 → .287 (−83)K% 17.9% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.95%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.82%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.59%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	2.29%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷1.003	×0.930	—	×0.952	27.16%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.116	×0.830	—	×0.952	2.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.099	×0.920	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.154	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.22%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 120, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .371 → .287; ISO .121 → .074; BABIP .360 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 229 PAwOBA .404 → .309 (−95)K% 17.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.47%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.66%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.972	8.41%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.83%
Singles /BIP	26.28%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.950	×0.972	22.17%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	7.20%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.073	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷1.049	×0.780	—	×0.972	3.24%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .404 → .309; ISO .194 → .142; BABIP .377 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 262 PAwOBA .335 → .277 (−58)K% 16.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.41%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.31%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×0.982	7.25%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	2.57%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷1.054	×0.900	×0.999	×0.982	20.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.74%	÷0.906	×0.810	×0.999	×0.982	7.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.810	×0.999	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.09%	÷0.952	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.88%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .335 → .277; ISO .097 → .084; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 197 PAwOBA .308 → .256 (−53)K% 13.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.20%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	16.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.69%	÷1.042	×0.680	—	×0.968	8.01%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.840	—	×0.968	0.83%
Singles /BIP	23.24%	÷1.029	×0.920	×1.036	×0.968	20.84%
Doubles /BIP	4.93%	÷0.985	×0.910	×1.036	×0.968	4.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.070	×0.880	×1.036	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.41%	÷1.185	×0.800	—	×0.968	0.92%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 114, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .308 → .256; ISO .077 → .064; BABIP .284 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 105 PAwOBA .233 → .210 (−23)K% 15.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.24%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.71%	÷1.005	×0.710	—	×0.992	4.01%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.93%
Singles /BIP	17.81%	÷1.015	×0.900	×1.006	×0.992	15.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.48%	÷0.918	×0.810	×1.006	×0.992	4.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.810	×1.006	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.37%	÷0.928	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.14%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 95, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .233 → .210; ISO .079 → .073; BABIP .233 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#2A.J. Ellislast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,290 PA	3.4	2,290	44	2	240	342	354	+41	-16	8.9	9.1
/162	664	13	1	+11.9	-4.7	2.6	pk7: 9
#3Jim Essian'73-'84 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,146 PA	3.2	2,146	33	9	239*	326*	368*	+34	-1	8.0	7.9
/162	664	10	3	+10.5	-0.4	2.5	pk7: 8
#4Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#5Lenny Webster'89-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,617 PA	2.4	1,617	33	1	244*	313*	372*	+28	+0	4.9	5.3
/162	664	14	0	+11.4	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.9	1,287	25	3	245	320	363	+20	+1	5.0	5.1
/162	664	13	2	+10.1	+0.5	2.6	pk7: 5
#6Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Nola (OGILVIE)	37	—	35	38	65	220/277/317	98	272	1	1	21%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Corky Miller 2013 · MLB	37	41	43→50	45→40	53	202/287/308	106	230	11	5	18%	9%	72	-0.7	202/270/307	105	243	10	6	21%	7%	65	-1.2	185/260/294	110	212	10	0	18%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Matt Treanor 2012 · MLB	36	44	41→40	39→40	56	214/313/306	93	254	10	6	19%	11%	81	-0.1	219/309/339	120	270	12	8	22%	10%	86	+0.3	170/266/275	105	214	9	5	24%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Jamie Burke 2010 · MLB	38	46→45	40→45	42→30	46	224/274/315	91	262	8	5	18%	6%	67	-1.1	216/274/319	103	267	9	8	22%	6%	68	-1.0	190/247/252	62	241	3	4	21%	5%	41	-0.7
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2019 · AAA	37	42	43→45	48→40	40	210/261/320	110	280	11	7	29%	5%	63	-1.3	204/254/326	122	300	14	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	156/198/251	95	230	14	3	38%	4%	21	-1.4
✕Alberto Castillo 2007 · MLB	37	48	37→30	41→30	52	225/293/304	79	273	4	5	18%	9%	71	-0.8	230/291/326	96	279	8	5	19%	8%	76	-0.4	223/290/293	70	267	8	0	18%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Drew Butera 2021 · MLB	37	41	43→40	49→40	46	206/271/320	115	267	11	6	26%	8%	68	-1.0	190/260/300	110	267	11	9	32%	7%	59	-1.6	137/214/222	85	196	9	7	34%	6%	23	-2.0
✕Hector Hurtado 2008 · AAA	37	46	42→40	41→30	38	226/266/322	96	282	10	3	24%	3%	65	-1.2	213/251/291	78	270	7	4	23%	3%	52	-2.2	206/236/255	49	259	4	0	22%	2%	34	-1.0
✕Hector Estrada 2006 · AAA	37	43	41→40	43→40	45	209/258/302	93	246	9	5	19%	6%	58	-1.7	210/262/310	100	243	10	7	18%	6%	61	-1.5	185/232/258	73	199	8	3	12%	4%	36	-0.8
✕Mike DiFelice 2007 · MLB	38	42	44→50	43→30	46	210/278/327	117	263	12	4	25%	7%	72	-0.7	214/265/309	95	283	9	4	27%	5%	62	-1.4	207/251/287	80	276	7	0	27%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Pedro Mere 2007 · AAA	37	46	41→40	41→40	47	222/269/314	92	246	9	5	14%	5%	64	-1.3	223/274/304	81	258	6	5	15%	5%	64	-1.3	218/274/283	65	256	4	3	16%	5%	57	-1.0
✕Adan Amezcua 2011 · AAA	37	46	40→45	41→45	47	221/271/311	90	257	7	6	17%	6%	65	-1.2	237/297/353	116	280	11	6	19%	6%	84	+0.2	244/310/369	125	285	12	4	18%	7%	91	+0.3
✕Miguel Ojeda 2012 · AAA	37	48→45	43→45	43→45	50	233/294/342	109	267	11	7	18%	8%	80	-0.1	226/280/330	104	281	9	8	22%	6%	73	-0.6	217/268/310	92	274	8	6	23%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Juan Castro 2009 · MLB	37	45	40→50	44→40	47	215/261/307	92	245	8	4	16%	6%	60	-1.6	227/275/311	84	275	7	5	19%	6%	65	-1.2	227/267/274	47	281	2	0	19%	5%	54	-0.5
✕John McDonald 2012 · MLB	37	47	45→40	40→50	46	232/271/354	121	249	12	7	13%	5%	74	-0.5	218/267/326	108	245	12	6	16%	6%	67	-1.1	206/247/305	99	227	13	2	16%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Chris Stewart 2018 · MLB	36	46	37→45	48→45	50	216/281/289	73	248	5	4	15%	7%	63	-1.3	210/269/293	83	242	7	5	16%	7%	60	-1.6	184/241/225	41	213	0	0	13%	6%	32	-1.1
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2019 · MLB	35	38→43	41→45	43→40	44	189/252/288	99	243	8	3	25%	6%	53	-2.1	199/266/305	106	273	10	7	29%	7%	63	-1.4	144/218/211	67	206	9	0	33%	5%	22	-1.0
✕Doug Bernier 2017 · AAA	37	46→52	40	42→45	44	223/276/313	90	281	9	7	24%	6%	67	-1.1	214/268/306	92	282	9	7	26%	6%	63	-1.4	186/236/233	47	249	5	0	26%	5%	31	-1.6
✕Paul Bako 2009 · MLB	37	45	41→45	38→40	47	217/284/315	98	287	9	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	235/299/355	120	300	13	5	25%	8%	86	+0.3	243/298/329	86	311	10	0	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Francisco Valdez 2006 · AAA	37	48	45→40	40→30	43	235/291/352	116	263	13	5	16%	4%	82	+0.0	248/290/336	88	276	8	5	13%	4%	78	-0.3	260/300/341	82	286	4	1	10%	3%	79	-0.1
✕Mike Rivera 2012 · MLB	35	39	43→55	44→45	43	195/264/303	108	264	10	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/317	106	285	11	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	194/245/256	62	262	7	0	28%	4%	40	-0.8

Austin Nola

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps