Cavan Biggio

2B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 32 L/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAAATL	68	.167/.403/.312	2	2	68	—	.148/.313/.278
2024	29	MLBATL	224	.197/.311/.303	5	2	79	-0.1
2025	30	AAALAA	296	.268/.378/.400	5	4	65	—	.203/.293/.295
2025	30	MLBKC	83	.174/.296/.246	1	1	61	-0.9
2026	31	AAAHOU	554	.230/.391/.415	18	12	74	—	.182/.300/.314
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBHOU	27	.207/.315/.330	1	0	85	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBHOU	238	.198/.305/.311	4	2	78	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Speed66

xwOBA38

Barrel%27

Bat Spd19

Avg EV14

CompsJames Adduci (age 32) · Ryan Langerhans (age 33) · Blake Gailen (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7185vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .315 / .330

PA27

HR1

K%26

BB%11

BABIP269

ISO174

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.207

POWER35

Barrel%

275.3

Avg EV

1486.4

Bat Spd

1968.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

6628.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 298 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

266

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

253

284

▶R

ISO

—

112

—

BABIP

353

264

◀◀L

34.4%

30.1%

▶R

BB%

12.5%

11.3%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	42	36	8	1	0	0	4	7	1	2	0	222	317	250	567	28	267	17	10	265	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	556	463	108	17	5	11	74	140	6	11	7	233	346	363	709	130	304	25	13	318	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	563	449	113	23	5	26	100	148	5	20	8	252	394	499	892	247	307	26	18	388	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	79	60	17	4	0	2	15	15	2	2	2	283	442	450	892	167	333	19	19	395	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	430	354	83	17	2	16	71	123	2	14	0	234	364	429	794	195	309	29	17	355	126	+13	+3	+0	+2	+9	2.8
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	174	138	43	8	1	6	34	28	1	5	1	312	451	514	965	203	352	16	20	426	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	265	220	55	16	0	8	41	61	3	6	0	250	374	432	805	182	311	23	15	362	131	+10	+1	-2	+1	+6	1.6
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	294	250	56	10	1	7	37	78	1	3	1	224	325	356	681	132	290	27	13	306	90	-4	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.2
2021	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	90	77	14	2	0	3	11	26	1	0	0	182	292	325	617	143	224	29	12	282	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	303	257	52	18	1	6	38	85	6	2	0	202	319	350	669	148	275	28	13	306	93	-3	+0	+4	+1	+7	1.0
2022	27	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	39	29	8	3	0	0	10	6	0	2	0	276	462	379	841	103	348	15	26	394	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	338	289	68	12	0	9	40	88	7	5	2	235	342	370	713	135	304	26	12	325	106	+2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2024	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	224	188	37	5	0	5	24	72	8	2	0	197	311	303	614	106	288	32	11	285	79	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
2024	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	68	48	8	1	0	2	17	14	2	2	1	167	403	312	715	146	182	21	25	343	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	83	69	12	2	0	1	11	21	1	1	0	174	296	246	543	72	234	25	13	255	61	-4	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.9
2025	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	296	250	67	14	2	5	36	74	8	4	3	268	378	400	778	132	358	25	12	352	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	431	99	14	6	18	104	117	11	12	1	230	391	415	807	186	267	21	19	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1937	1627	363	80	4	52	262	528	28	33	3	223	340	373	713	150	295	27	14	323	105	+11	+5	-7	+1	+42	5.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	42	37	7	1	0	0	3	10	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	237	24	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	556	489	88	16	3	7	48	197	6	11	7	180	262	268	529	88	268	35	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	563	477	105	20	4	23	72	175	5	20	8	220	329	423	752	203	280	31	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	430	355	83	17	2	16	71	123	2	14	0	234	364	428	793	194	309	29	17	355	126	+13	+3	+0	+2	+9	2.8
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	174	146	39	7	1	5	26	35	1	5	1	267	382	432	813	164	318	20	15	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	265	221	55	16	0	8	41	61	3	6	0	249	374	430	803	181	311	23	15	362	131	+10	+1	-2	+1	+6	1.6
2021	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	294	253	56	10	1	7	35	78	1	3	1	221	318	352	670	130	290	27	12	301	90	-4	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.2
2021	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	90	80	12	2	0	2	8	32	1	0	0	150	236	250	486	100	196	36	9	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	303	257	52	18	1	6	38	85	6	2	0	202	319	350	669	148	275	28	13	305	93	-3	+0	+4	+1	+7	1.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	39	33	8	3	0	0	6	7	0	2	0	242	359	333	692	91	322	18	15	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	338	289	68	12	0	9	40	88	7	5	2	235	342	370	713	135	304	26	12	324	106	+2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	224	190	37	5	0	5	24	72	8	2	0	195	311	300	611	105	288	32	11	285	79	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
2024	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	68	54	8	1	0	2	11	18	2	2	1	148	313	278	591	130	165	26	16	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	83	69	12	2	0	1	11	21	1	1	0	174	296	246	543	72	234	25	13	258	61	-4	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.9
2025	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	296	261	53	11	2	3	25	91	8	4	3	203	293	295	588	92	289	31	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	468	85	11	6	13	68	140	11	12	1	182	300	314	614	132	220	25	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	42	37	7	1	0	0	3	10	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	250	24	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	42	36	8	1	0	0	4	7	1	2	0	222	317	250	567	28	267	17	10	265	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	556	489	88	16	3	7	48	197	6	11	7	180	262	268	529	88	277	35	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	556	463	108	17	5	11	74	140	6	11	7	233	346	363	709	130	304	25	13	318	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	642	542	121	23	5	26	82	199	7	22	10	223	333	428	761	205	291	31	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	642	509	130	27	5	28	115	163	7	22	10	255	399	493	892	238	311	25	18	389	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	604	501	122	24	3	21	97	158	3	19	1	244	369	429	799	186	311	26	16	357	128	+20	+3	+0	+2	+13	4.0
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	604	492	126	25	3	22	105	151	3	19	1	256	389	453	843	197	323	25	17	376	128	+20	+3	+0	+2	+13	4.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	265	221	55	16	0	8	41	61	3	6	0	249	374	430	803	181	309	23	15	362	131	+10	+1	-2	+1	+6	1.6
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	265	220	55	16	0	8	41	61	3	6	0	250	374	432	805	182	311	23	15	362	131	+10	+1	-2	+1	+6	1.6
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	384	333	68	12	1	9	43	110	2	3	1	204	299	327	626	123	269	29	11	279	75	-11	+0	-6	+1	+8	-0.7
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	384	327	70	12	1	10	48	104	2	3	1	214	317	349	666	135	275	27	12	300	75	-11	+0	-6	+1	+8	-0.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	342	290	60	21	1	6	44	92	6	4	0	207	324	348	672	141	280	27	13	308	95	-2	+1	+4	+1	+7	1.2
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	342	286	60	21	1	6	48	91	6	4	0	210	335	353	688	143	284	27	14	316	95	-2	+1	+4	+1	+7	1.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	338	289	68	12	0	9	40	88	7	5	2	235	342	370	713	135	304	26	12	324	106	+2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2023	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	338	289	68	12	0	9	40	88	7	5	2	235	342	370	713	135	304	26	12	325	106	+2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	244	45	6	0	7	35	90	10	4	1	184	311	295	607	111	257	31	12	281	77	-8	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2024	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	292	236	45	6	0	7	41	86	10	4	1	191	332	305	637	114	264	29	14	299	77	-8	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	330	65	13	2	4	36	112	9	5	3	197	293	285	578	88	282	30	9	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	379	319	79	16	2	6	47	95	9	5	3	248	360	367	727	119	332	25	12	331	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	468	85	11	6	13	68	140	11	12	1	182	300	314	614	132	224	25	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	431	99	14	6	18	104	117	11	12	1	230	391	415	807	186	267	21	19	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	42	38	7	1	0	0	3	10	1	2	0	184	268	211	479	26	237	24	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	556	497	88	16	3	7	48	197	6	11	7	177	262	264	525	87	268	35	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	642	548	121	23	5	26	82	199	7	22	10	221	333	423	756	203	280	31	13	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	604	499	122	24	3	21	97	158	3	19	1	244	369	431	800	186	311	26	16	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	265	219	55	16	0	8	41	61	3	6	0	251	374	434	807	183	311	23	15	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	384	336	68	12	1	9	43	110	2	3	1	202	299	324	623	122	268	29	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	342	289	60	21	1	6	44	92	6	4	0	208	324	349	673	142	281	27	13	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	338	288	68	12	0	9	40	88	7	5	2	236	342	372	714	135	304	26	12	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	245	45	6	0	7	35	90	10	4	1	184	311	294	605	110	260	31	12	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	331	65	13	2	4	36	112	9	5	3	196	293	284	577	88	277	30	9	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	470	85	11	6	13	68	140	11	12	1	181	300	313	613	132	220	25	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	245	45	6	0	7	35	90	10	4	1	184	311	294	605	110	260	31	12	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	331	65	13	2	4	36	112	9	5	3	196	293	284	577	88	277	30	9	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	554	470	85	11	6	13	68	140	11	12	1	181	300	313	613	132	220	25	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	380	325	67	10	3	8	44	99	8	7	2	205	313	328	641	123	265	26	12	294	85	-7	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	27	23	5	1	0	1	3	7	1	0	0	207	315	330	645	123	269	26	11	296	85	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	238	204	41	6	2	5	27	63	5	2	1	196	304	309	613	112	257	26	11	283	78	-6	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	238	204	40	6	2	4	27	63	5	2	1	198	305	311	616	113	260	26	11	284	78	-6	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2175	1831	403	86	6	56	289	591	33	35	4	220	336	365	701	145	291	27	13	319	89	+5	+5	-12	+2	+47	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	547	121	26	2	17	86	177	10	10	1	221	336	369	706	148	292	27	13	319	89	+2	+2	-4	+1	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4908	4182	873	168	25	121	595	1391	75	100	28	209	318	348	666	139	277	28	12	300	89	+0	+6	-13	+3	+53	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	554	115	22	3	16	79	184	10	13	4	208	317	345	662	137	276	28	12	300	89	+0	+2	-3	+1	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 554 PAwOBA .358 → .278 (−80)K% 21.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.12%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.59%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	12.34%
HBP% /PA	1.99%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.80%
Singles /BIP	19.43%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	16.51%
Doubles /BIP	4.46%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	3.38%
Triples /BIP	1.91%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.73%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .278; ISO .186 → .143; BABIP .267 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 296 PAwOBA .346 → .265 (−81)K% 25.0% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	30.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.16%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.46%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.47%
Singles /BIP	26.14%	÷1.046	×0.930	×0.957	×0.972	21.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.95%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.957	×0.972	6.11%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.079	×0.970	×0.957	×0.972	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	2.84%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.95%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .346 → .265; ISO .132 → .096; BABIP .358 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 68 PAwOBA .341 → .269 (−72)K% 20.6% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.59%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	25.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.982	16.92%
HBP% /PA	2.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.71%
Singles /BIP	14.71%	÷0.977	×0.930	—	×0.982	13.75%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷0.961	×0.830	—	×0.982	2.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .341 → .269; ISO .146 → .116; BABIP .182 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 39 PAwOBA .378 → .330 (−48)K% 15.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	18.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.08%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.003	15.47%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷0.960	×0.930	—	×1.003	21.12%
Doubles /BIP	13.04%	÷0.984	×0.830	—	×1.003	11.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.149	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.951	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .378 → .330; ISO .103 → .099; BABIP .348 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 90 PAwOBA .278 → .210 (−68)K% 28.9% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.89%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	35.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.22%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.38%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.06%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.071	×0.930	×1.011	×1.018	15.77%
Doubles /BIP	3.92%	÷0.962	×0.830	×1.011	×1.018	3.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.011	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.88%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .278 → .210; ISO .143 → .097; BABIP .224 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 174 PAwOBA .418 → .364 (−55)K% 16.1% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.09%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	19.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.54%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.048	14.83%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.57%
Singles /BIP	25.45%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	23.30%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	6.30%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷0.909	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .418 → .364; ISO .203 → .185; BABIP .352 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 563 PAwOBA .382 → .331 (−51)K% 26.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.29%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	31.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.05%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.027	12.76%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.78%
Singles /BIP	19.60%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.954	×1.027	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.64%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.954	×1.027	6.56%
Triples /BIP	1.66%	÷1.086	×0.950	×0.954	×1.027	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	8.64%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×1.027	7.32%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 117, K 107, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .382 → .331; ISO .247 → .218; BABIP .307 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 556 PAwOBA .312 → .241 (−71)K% 25.2% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.18%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	35.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.77%	÷1.118	×0.750	—	×1.012	8.67%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.02%
Singles /BIP	23.22%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	20.51%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.940	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	5.17%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷1.265	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.40%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .312 → .241; ISO .130 → .095; BABIP .304 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.3	2,202	57	36	220	333	366	+3	-9	7.3	7.5
/162	664	17	11	+0.8	-2.8	2.2	pk7: 8
#2Willie Greene'92-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,183 PA	3.3	2,183	86	17	225*	313*	415*	-4	+5	5.9	6.5
/162	664	26	5	-1.1	+1.5	1.8	pk7: 7
#3Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#4Frank Menechino'99-'05 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,510 PA	2.3	1,510	36	3	232*	349*	373*	+1	+14	6.1	6.1
/162	664	16	1	+0.4	+6.3	2.7	pk7: 6
#5Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#6Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cavan Biggio (OGILVIE)	32	35	35	55	60	203/311/325	122	265	6	5	26%	11%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕James Adduci 2017 · MLB	32	45→55	45	51→60	46	226/287/349	123	287	13	14	25%	8%	80	-0.2	238/280/359	121	318	11	13	27%	6%	79	-0.2	236/272/353	117	312	11	12	27%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Ryan Langerhans 2013 · MLB	33	40→41	48→50	45→50	50	202/294/346	144	291	16	11	34%	11%	83	+0.1	209/286/357	148	299	17	8	33%	9%	82	-0.0	184/263/338	154	248	20	2	34%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Blake Gailen 2017 · AAA	32	42	47→55	47→50	55	212/290/352	140	231	15	10	17%	10%	82	-0.0	222/276/347	125	275	13	10	24%	7%	76	-0.4	219/266/340	120	256	15	8	21%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Roger Bernadina 2015 · MLB	31	43→53	42→45	54→60	48	210/293/320	110	281	9	15	27%	9%	76	-0.4	215/286/335	120	308	11	20	32%	8%	76	-0.4	219/285/332	113	308	11	20	31%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Mark Payton 2024 · MLB	32	46→51	46→55	50	48	228/285/361	133	262	12	13	19%	7%	82	-0.0	238/291/355	117	292	10	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	243/295/350	107	298	8	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Brian Bogusevic 2015 · MLB	31	48→54	45	51→55	48	237/307/366	129	296	12	15	24%	8%	91	+0.7	247/293/372	125	306	14	16	23%	6%	87	+0.4	251/291/374	122	308	15	17	23%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Jason Conti 2006 · MLB	31	42→40	45	44→50	40	210/259/331	121	279	13	6	29%	6%	65	-1.2	217/267/328	111	286	11	8	27%	6%	68	-1.0	205/249/275	71	267	7	5	25%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Baltazar Lopez 2016 · AAA	32	43	44→50	47→45	36	209/259/326	116	315	12	6	36%	5%	64	-1.3	226/296/321	95	349	9	9	35%	8%	77	-0.3	237/326/270	33	383	3	4	34%	10%	79	-0.0
✕Jesus Cota 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	45→50	49→50	44	208/259/323	116	251	13	7	23%	6%	63	-1.3	213/265/324	111	283	12	8	28%	6%	65	-1.2	175/218/243	68	234	10	0	29%	5%	29	-1.0
✕Sherman Johnson 2021 · AAA	31	42→49	43→45	46→50	45	208/273/316	109	285	10	10	30%	8%	68	-1.0	200/286/307	107	285	9	9	30%	9%	71	-0.8	156/262/243	88	226	7	5	31%	11%	46	-1.2
✕Rico Brogna 2001 · MLB	31	48	44→40	49→45	44	232/282/361	128	280	10	7	21%	6%	80	-0.1	240/293/359	119	292	11	9	21%	7%	84	+0.1	244/292/330	86	300	8	8	21%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Ryan Flaherty 2018 · MLB	32	47	44→55	49→45	51	230/309/347	117	289	12	5	24%	9%	88	+0.5	220/283/343	123	286	14	7	27%	8%	77	-0.3	206/265/331	125	269	15	5	28%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Webster Rivas 2022 · MLB	31	44	44→40	47→40	47	219/282/328	109	274	12	4	24%	8%	74	-0.6	219/296/313	94	291	7	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/296/269	64	282	2	2	25%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Darren Bragg 2001 · MLB	31	46	46→45	51→50	50	230/301/363	133	286	13	13	24%	9%	88	+0.5	244/314/363	119	321	9	13	25%	9%	93	+0.8	238/308/345	107	303	8	9	23%	8%	87	+0.1
✕Anthony Bemboom 2022 · MLB	32	41	46→40	48→45	47	207/280/332	126	264	14	6	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/270/310	107	264	10	5	26%	8%	65	-1.2	184/252/272	88	242	7	1	26%	8%	48	-0.8
✕Jose Munoz 2012 · AAA	33	47→49	42→45	48→50	55	225/305/333	108	269	8	9	19%	10%	82	+0.0	204/276/298	94	265	8	8	25%	9%	64	-1.3	184/260/260	76	239	7	5	25%	9%	48	-1.0
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	33	43→45	44→55	50	45	213/275/324	111	279	12	15	28%	8%	70	-0.9	267/311/489	222	299	31	13	22%	5%	122	+2.9	288/324/555	267	305	41	11	20%	4%	144	+2.0
✕Jack Hannahan 2011 · MLB	31	42→52	44→45	47→45	48	207/280/326	119	266	11	4	26%	9%	72	-0.7	231/306/349	118	290	11	4	22%	9%	87	+0.4	237/317/345	108	296	9	1	21%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Don Kelly 2013 · MLB	33	45→55	45	51→55	50	224/283/338	114	250	13	10	17%	7%	76	-0.4	226/305/328	102	255	10	11	15%	10%	82	-0.0	201/278/271	70	234	6	8	16%	9%	58	-0.7
✕Jason Krizan 2021 · AAA	32	46→56	46→50	49→45	52	227/287/363	136	247	14	5	15%	8%	83	+0.1	237/283/378	141	270	14	4	18%	6%	85	+0.2	237/282/379	141	269	14	1	18%	6%	82	-0.0

Cavan Biggio

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps