Andy Ibáñez

3B Tacoma Rainiers

Age 34 R/R 5'10" / 205 lbs AAA K +7%HR -5% Svc 4.023 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	MLBDET	244	.241/.298/.357	5	2	88	0.6
2025	32	AAADET	160	.259/.352/.381	2	4	65	—	.214/.283/.317
2025	32	MLBDET	193	.239/.302/.352	4	4	90	0.5
2026	33	AAA/A+/INTL3 orgs	293	.300/.344/.437	7	4	70	—	.235/.266/.334
2026	33	MLBNYM	26	.087/.125/.087	0	0	-47	-0.4
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBSEA	20	.234/.284/.343	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSEA	9	.223/.271/.320	0	0	68	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.023First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed46

Avg EV40

Bat Spd40

xwOBA24

Barrel%21

CompsFernando Rios (age 34) · Issmael Salas (age 34) · Charlie Culberson (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8478vR 60

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .284 / .343

PA20

HR0

K%20

BB%5

BABIP273

ISO53

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

210.227

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

4088.3

Bat Spd

4070.2

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 437 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

289

148

—

wRC+

113

◀◀L

wOBA

335

205

◀◀L

ISO

150

050

◀◀L

BABIP

317

228

◀◀L

18.3%

24.3%

◀◀L

BB%

7.3%

4.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.023 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	343	307	80	18	2	6	25	47	2	5	2	261	318	391	708	130	288	14	7	311	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	220	185	60	18	1	7	29	28	1	10	8	324	419	546	965	222	346	13	13	414	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	68	64	18	7	0	0	4	6	0	2	1	281	324	391	714	109	310	9	6	320	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	345	310	82	14	2	8	25	48	3	6	1	265	325	400	725	135	288	14	7	319	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	515	463	131	21	1	12	40	74	5	1	6	283	346	410	757	127	312	14	8	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	75	67	11	2	1	0	7	18	1	3	0	164	253	224	477	60	224	24	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	529	467	140	30	1	20	53	91	4	7	7	300	376	497	873	197	335	17	10	382	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	272	253	70	15	2	7	15	35	2	0	0	277	322	435	757	158	297	13	6	333	110	+3	+0	+3	+1	+6	1.4
2021	28	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	129	114	39	11	1	7	12	18	2	1	0	342	414	640	1.054	298	356	14	9	452	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	128	119	26	4	0	1	9	21	0	3	0	218	273	277	551	59	258	16	7	254	57	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2022	29	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	315	282	72	18	1	6	28	48	4	5	2	255	331	390	721	135	288	15	9	325	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	383	356	94	23	2	11	24	69	1	1	0	264	312	433	745	169	300	18	6	328	112	+6	+0	+3	+2	+8	1.9
2023	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	79	64	19	5	0	5	13	14	1	2	1	297	423	609	1.032	312	304	18	16	440	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	293	88	-4	-1	+4	+1	+5	0.6
2025	32	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	193	176	42	8	0	4	12	26	4	4	1	239	302	352	654	114	259	13	6	296	90	-2	+0	+2	+1	+4	0.5
2025	32	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	160	139	36	9	1	2	18	30	2	4	2	259	352	381	733	122	315	19	11	332	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB	New York Mets	—	26	23	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	87	125	87	212		91	12	4	96	-47	-5	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.4
2026	33	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	246	228	61	12	0	6	11	37	2	3	0	268	307	399	706	132	289	15	4	309	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	20	12	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	600	636	800	1.436	200	647	9	5	629	216	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	25	22	8	3	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	364	440	500	940	136	471	20	12	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1246	1151	288	59	5	28	76	217	10	10	4	250	302	383	685	133	285	17	6	305	92	-11	+0	+10	+8	+27	3.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	343	316	74	15	2	5	19	56	2	5	2	234	282	342	624	108	256	16	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	220	197	51	16	1	5	17	38	1	10	8	259	321	426	747	168	288	17	8	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	345	319	70	11	2	6	16	61	3	6	1	219	263	323	586	103	242	18	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	515	473	120	17	1	10	30	91	5	1	6	254	305	357	662	104	287	18	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	529	482	117	24	1	16	38	116	4	7	7	243	303	396	700	154	282	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	272	253	71	16	2	7	15	35	2	0	0	281	326	443	769	162	297	13	6	331	110	+3	+0	+3	+1	+6	1.4
2021	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	129	118	34	10	1	5	8	20	2	1	0	288	344	517	861	229	302	16	6	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	128	119	26	4	0	1	9	21	0	3	0	218	273	277	551	59	258	16	7	252	57	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2022	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	315	291	62	15	1	4	19	57	4	5	2	213	271	313	583	100	248	18	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	383	356	96	24	2	11	24	69	1	1	0	270	318	441	759	171	300	18	6	334	112	+6	+0	+3	+2	+8	1.9
2023	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	79	68	17	4	0	4	9	17	1	2	1	250	346	485	831	235	252	22	11	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	298	88	-4	-1	+4	+1	+5	0.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	193	176	42	8	0	4	12	26	4	4	1	239	302	352	654	114	259	13	6	301	90	-2	+0	+2	+1	+4	0.5
2025	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	160	145	31	7	1	2	12	34	2	4	2	214	283	317	600	103	264	21	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	26	23	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	87	125	87	212		91	12	4	98	-47	-5	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.4
2026	33	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	246	232	49	9	0	4	7	44	2	3	0	211	241	302	542	91	233	18	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	20	10	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	500	545	700	1.245	200	519	14	5	488	216	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	631	577	139	34	3	11	40	105	3	17	11	241	294	367	661	127	274	17	6	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	631	556	158	43	3	13	58	81	3	17	11	284	353	442	796	158	310	13	9	348	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	345	319	70	11	2	6	16	61	3	6	1	219	263	323	586	103	251	18	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	345	310	82	14	2	8	25	48	3	6	1	265	325	400	725	135	288	14	7	319	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	590	543	137	19	1	11	34	104	6	4	6	252	304	352	655	99	292	18	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	590	530	142	23	2	12	47	92	6	4	6	268	334	387	721	119	302	16	8	322	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	529	482	117	24	1	16	38	116	4	7	7	243	303	396	700	154	287	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	529	467	140	30	1	20	53	91	4	7	7	300	376	497	873	197	335	17	10	382	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	401	371	104	25	3	12	23	55	4	1	0	280	329	461	790	181	301	14	6	342	118	+8	+0	+3	+1	+9	2.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	401	367	109	26	3	14	27	53	4	1	0	297	352	499	850	202	315	13	7	371	118	+8	+0	+3	+1	+9	2.2
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	443	410	88	19	1	5	28	78	4	8	2	215	271	302	574	88	253	18	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	443	401	98	22	1	7	37	69	4	8	2	244	314	357	671	112	279	16	8	304	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	462	424	112	27	2	15	33	86	2	3	1	264	320	443	764	179	298	19	7	336	114	+7	+0	+3	+2	+10	2.2
2023	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	462	420	113	28	2	16	37	83	2	3	1	269	331	460	791	190	300	18	8	347	114	+7	+0	+3	+2	+10	2.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	298	88	-4	-1	+4	+1	+5	0.6
2024	31	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	293	88	-4	-1	+4	+1	+5	0.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	321	75	16	1	6	24	60	6	8	3	234	299	346	645	112	268	17	7	284	79	-9	+0	+2	+1	+8	0.2
2025	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	353	315	78	17	1	6	30	56	6	8	3	248	325	365	690	117	282	16	8	312	79	-9	+0	+2	+1	+8	0.2
2026	33	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	319	300	66	11	0	5	9	54	3	4	0	220	250	307	557	87	246	17	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	319	293	83	16	0	7	16	47	3	4	0	283	327	410	736	126	309	15	5	322	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	631	583	139	34	3	11	40	105	3	17	11	238	294	364	657	125	269	17	6	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	345	323	70	11	2	6	16	61	3	6	1	217	263	319	582	102	242	18	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	590	545	137	19	1	11	34	104	6	4	6	251	304	350	654	99	287	18	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	529	482	117	24	1	16	38	116	4	7	7	243	303	396	700	154	282	22	7	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	401	371	104	25	3	12	23	55	4	1	0	280	329	461	790	181	299	14	6	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	443	408	88	19	1	5	28	78	4	8	2	216	271	304	575	88	251	18	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	462	424	112	27	2	15	33	86	2	3	1	264	320	443	764	179	291	19	7	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	320	75	16	1	6	24	60	6	8	3	234	299	347	646	112	261	17	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	319	304	66	11	0	5	9	54	3	4	0	217	250	303	553	86	242	17	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	244	224	54	9	1	5	15	63	3	2	3	241	298	357	655	116	310	26	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	320	75	16	1	6	24	60	6	8	3	234	299	347	646	112	261	17	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	319	304	66	11	0	5	9	54	3	4	0	217	250	303	553	86	242	17	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SEA	10%	311	287	68	12	1	6	17	59	4	5	1	236	286	348	634	112	275	19	5	284	78	-8	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	SEA	10%	20	19	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	234	284	343	627	110	273	20	5	281	78	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SEA	6%	156	145	33	6	0	3	8	31	2	1	0	225	273	324	598	100	266	20	5	268	68	-6	+0	-6	+1	+3	-0.8
2028	35	MLB CTX	SEA	6%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	223	271	320	592	98	264	22	0	266	68	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1255	1160	289	59	5	28	76	219	10	10	4	249	301	381	682	132	284	17	6	305	83	-12	+0	+10	+8	+27	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	151	31	3	15	39	113	5	5	2	251	302	388	690	136	285	17	6	305	83	-6	+0	+5	+4	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4674	4302	1039	209	16	99	279	851	42	64	35	242	294	367	661	125	278	18	6	290	83	-22	+1	+5	+9	+35	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	144	29	2	14	39	118	6	9	5	241	294	366	661	125	276	18	6	290	83	-9	+0	+2	+4	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 246 PAwOBA .306 → .237 (−69)K% 15.0% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.47%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	2.91%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.72%
Singles /BIP	22.51%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	18.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.28%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	4.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.14%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .306 → .237; ISO .132 → .092; BABIP .289 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 22 PAwOBA .612 → .488 (−124)K% 9.1% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	11.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.940	2.56%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.770	—	×0.940	3.29%
Singles /BIP	55.56%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×0.940	45.43%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	4.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.940	4.60%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .612 → .488; ISO .200 → .162; BABIP .647 → .519. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 160 PAwOBA .326 → .265 (−61)K% 18.8% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.073	×1.200	—	—	20.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.25%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.48%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.12%
Singles /BIP	22.02%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.957	×0.952	18.79%
Doubles /BIP	8.26%	÷0.953	×0.830	×0.957	×0.952	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.905	×0.970	×0.957	×0.952	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	1.83%	÷0.872	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .326 → .265; ISO .122 → .102; BABIP .315 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 79 PAwOBA .434 → .345 (−89)K% 17.7% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.72%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.46%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.97%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.16%
Singles /BIP	18.00%	÷0.965	×0.930	×0.999	×0.972	16.85%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.156	×0.830	×0.999	×0.972	6.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.999	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.972	7.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .434 → .345; ISO .312 → .243; BABIP .304 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 315 PAwOBA .317 → .259 (−58)K% 15.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.24%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.04%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.17%
Singles /BIP	20.09%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	17.67%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	6.35%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .317 → .259; ISO .135 → .106; BABIP .288 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 129 PAwOBA .440 → .366 (−74)K% 14.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷1.072	×1.200	—	—	15.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.53%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.99%
HBP% /PA	1.55%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.45%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	18.28%
Doubles /BIP	11.46%	÷0.915	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	9.80%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.992	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	7.29%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.28%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 114, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .440 → .366; ISO .298 → .237; BABIP .356 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 529 PAwOBA .373 → .301 (−71)K% 17.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.20%	÷1.015	×1.290	—	—	21.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.83%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.19%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.75%
Singles /BIP	23.67%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	20.46%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷0.967	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	6.46%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷1.069	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.19%
Home runs /BIP	5.32%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.018	4.23%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .373 → .301; ISO .197 → .155; BABIP .335 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 515 PAwOBA .329 → .290 (−40)K% 14.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.37%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.77%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.83%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.98%
Singles /BIP	24.94%	÷0.962	×0.900	×0.983	×1.033	23.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.40%	÷1.019	×0.810	×0.983	×1.033	4.36%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.983	×1.033	0.24%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷0.978	×0.780	—	×1.033	2.54%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .329 → .290; ISO .127 → .105; BABIP .312 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Farmerlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,367 PA	3.6	2,367	63	16	247	306	388	+17	+23	8.9	9.0
/162	664	18	4	+4.7	+6.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#2Mike Fontenotlast yr '12 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,581 PA	2.4	1,581	27	17	265	332	402	+7	+7	7.0	7.0
/162	664	11	7	+3.1	+3.0	2.9	pk7: 7
#3Brendan Rodgerslast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,936 PA	2.9	1,936	47	1	263	315	404	+7	-1	6.5	6.5
/162	664	16	0	+2.4	-0.2	2.2	pk7: 6
#4Tim Hulett'83-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,316 PA	3.5	2,316	48	14	245*	295*	384*	+5	+31	5.0	5.8
/162	664	14	4	+1.5	+8.9	1.4	pk7: 7
#5Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#6Keith Lockhart'94-'03 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,529 PA	3.8	2,529	44	30	249*	304*	372*	+6	+16	3.9	4.5
/162	664	12	8	+1.7	+4.1	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.9	1,249	29	10	255	304	391	+4	+9	3.1	3.1
/162	664	15	6	+2.4	+4.7	1.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andy Ibáñez (OGILVIE)	34	45	40	50	45	234/284/345	111	275	4	3	19%	5%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	47	230/283/323	93	269	9	10	18%	6%	72	-0.7	225/277/321	96	263	9	10	17%	6%	69	-0.9	215/256/250	35	242	3	4	12%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Issmael Salas 2016 · AAA	34	49→48	41→45	45→50	45	238/282/335	98	270	9	7	16%	5%	74	-0.5	233/279/341	108	260	10	6	15%	5%	75	-0.5	230/272/335	105	252	11	3	13%	4%	69	-0.6
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	49→54	45	47→50	43	240/287/367	127	300	12	13	24%	6%	84	+0.1	222/270/335	113	309	12	12	30%	6%	70	-0.8	164/189/198	34	266	4	14	39%	3%	8	-1.0
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Trinidad Robles 2007 · AAA	34	49	42→40	49→45	43	238/291/342	103	297	9	12	23%	6%	79	-0.2	216/270/303	87	266	7	7	21%	6%	63	-1.4	210/265/282	72	256	6	3	20%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Alcides Escobar 2021 · MLB	34	46→56	42→45	48→55	45	222/267/330	107	258	9	9	18%	5%	68	-1.0	245/293/357	112	300	9	8	21%	5%	83	+0.1	253/299/360	106	312	7	6	20%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Pete Kozma 2021 · MLB	33	43→47	43→45	50	46	211/265/327	116	247	10	8	19%	6%	66	-1.1	201/248/289	88	257	6	8	24%	5%	51	-2.2	182/225/251	69	236	3	6	23%	4%	30	-3.1
✕Ramiro Pena 2019 · MLB	34	49→55	44→45	46→50	45	241/290/362	121	284	12	11	20%	6%	84	+0.1	249/285/378	129	272	14	9	14%	4%	85	+0.2	261/288/382	121	281	13	7	12%	3%	86	+0.2
✕Robinson Cancel 2009 · MLB	33	46	43→45	46→50	44	228/270/343	115	264	11	11	19%	5%	72	-0.7	225/269/315	90	262	7	13	16%	5%	64	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Hernando Arredondo 2011 · AAA	34	49→53	43→50	45→50	43	242/273/350	108	267	12	12	15%	4%	74	-0.5	240/269/364	124	272	14	8	17%	4%	76	-0.4	234/265/362	127	264	15	3	18%	3%	72	-0.4
✕Humberto Quintero 2014 · MLB	34	46	44→45	43→40	40	230/266/349	119	276	12	4	22%	4%	72	-0.7	229/259/336	107	282	11	5	22%	3%	65	-1.2	228/248/318	89	282	9	4	22%	2%	54	-1.0
✕Said Gutierrez 2014 · AAA	34	46	44→50	47→40	45	226/276/345	119	260	12	7	19%	6%	75	-0.5	218/259/317	99	251	12	5	18%	4%	61	-1.5	217/252/285	67	260	9	0	20%	3%	50	-0.8
✕Ed Rogers 2013 · AAA	34	44→50	41→40	49→50	43	215/267/315	100	261	8	11	21%	5%	64	-1.3	235/289/337	102	286	11	12	21%	6%	78	-0.3	245/292/305	60	291	9	12	19%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Pedro Diaz 2013 · AAA	34	43→47	42→45	47→45	42	214/259/319	105	267	10	6	24%	5%	62	-1.4	221/247/341	120	270	14	4	24%	3%	62	-1.4	221/241/338	117	262	15	0	22%	2%	58	-0.7
✕Joe McEwing 2007 · MLB	34	50→52	40→45	47→50	42	241/273/330	89	284	9	15	19%	4%	69	-0.9	229/265/325	96	287	9	10	23%	4%	65	-1.2	221/253/302	82	282	7	6	24%	3%	53	-1.8
✕Francisco Arias 2012 · AAA	34	52→47	40	45	47	247/296/346	98	267	7	7	11%	4%	82	+0.0	229/264/296	67	250	4	4	10%	3%	58	-1.7	226/254/272	45	244	2	0	8%	2%	46	-1.6
✕Nick Green 2013 · MLB	34	42→46	46→50	42→45	41	215/261/349	134	257	14	5	23%	4%	70	-0.8	201/249/317	116	260	13	6	27%	5%	59	-1.7	161/207/246	84	213	10	1	29%	4%	24	-2.9
✕Mike DiFelice 2003 · MLB	34	44	45→50	45→30	45	220/275/345	125	265	12	4	22%	6%	74	-0.5	225/284/362	137	264	13	5	20%	6%	82	-0.0	212/275/335	123	257	12	2	22%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Royce Clayton 2004 · MLB	34	48→57	44→45	46→50	49	234/289/348	114	265	12	8	17%	7%	80	-0.1	256/309/358	102	309	7	11	18%	7%	89	+0.5	261/313/353	92	318	4	13	18%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Bryan Holaday 2021 · MLB	33	46	44→45	43→40	49	228/293/346	118	262	12	6	18%	7%	82	-0.0	224/284/381	157	275	18	8	25%	7%	86	+0.3	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3

Andy Ibáñez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps