Brendan Rodgers

2B Houston Astros

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 204 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	26	AAA/A+COL	38	.265/.342/.412	1	0	61	—	.253/.316/.391
2023	26	MLBCOL	192	.258/.312/.388	4	0	90	0.4
2024	27	MLBCOL	539	.267/.315/.407	13	1	94	0.8
2025	28	MLBHOU	128	.191/.268/.278	2	0	55	-0.4
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	214	.240/.300/.373	5	2	87	0.2
2028PROJ	31	MLBHOU	200	.235/.294/.363	4	0	83	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd76

Avg EV52

Barrel%49

xwOBA45

Speed27

CompsPedro Severino (age 30) · Tim Federowicz (age 31) · P.J. Higgins (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9287vR 73

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .300 / .373

PA214

HR5

K%26

BB%7

BABIP307

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT50

xAVG

390.242

POWER45

Barrel%

498.1

Avg EV

5289.3

Bat Spd

7674.1

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 667 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

170

497

—

wRC+

126

◀◀L

wOBA

354

287

◀◀L

ISO

147

123

◀◀L

BABIP

379

313

◀◀L

23.5%

27.8%

◀◀L

BB%

7.6%

5.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.8M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	159	143	39	8	2	3	15	37	0	4	3	273	342	420	761	147	346	23	9	338	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	491	442	124	31	0	19	35	98	8	6	3	281	344	480	824	199	319	20	7	360	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	164	150	39	5	0	6	8	36	6	0	2	260	323	413	737	153	306	22	5	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	236	222	86	21	3	12	6	35	4	2	1	387	414	671	1.085	284	413	15	3	463	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	72	69	16	4	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	232	264	290	554	58	302	22	1	252	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	402	357	98	23	2	17	30	76	9	12	3	275	346	493	839	218	301	19	7	364	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	81	76	17	2	0	0	4	27	1	0	0	224	272	250	522	26	347	33	5	243	47	-5	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.6
2019	22	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	160	143	50	10	1	9	14	27	2	0	0	350	415	622	1.037	273	380	17	9	447	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	21	21	2	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	95	95	143	238	48	133	29	0	104	-46	-4	+0	-1	+0	+0	-0.4
2021	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	415	387	110	21	3	15	19	84	7	0	0	284	329	470	800	186	328	20	5	351	111	+6	+0	-1	+2	+9	1.5
2021	24	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	16	15	7	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	467	500	600	1.100	133	583	19	6	487	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	581	527	140	30	3	13	46	101	3	0	0	266	328	408	736	142	304	17	8	327	98	-1	+0	+3	+2	+13	1.7
2023	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	192	178	46	9	1	4	11	41	3	0	0	258	312	388	700	129	316	21	6	314	90	-2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.4
2023	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	21	20	7	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	350	381	600	981	250	353	10	5	427	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+	Spokane Indians	—	17	14	2	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	143	294	143	437		222	29	12	232	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	539	501	134	29	1	13	31	132	4	1	0	267	315	407	722	140	338	24	6	321	94	-4	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.8
2025	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	251	55	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1957	1805	471	96	8	47	122	437	19	1	1	261	314	401	716	140	319	22	6	318	101	+3	-0	-3	+8	+42	5.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	159	149	27	5	1	2	9	53	0	4	3	181	228	268	496	87	268	33	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	491	453	101	20	0	12	24	136	8	6	3	223	274	347	621	124	281	28	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	164	152	34	4	0	4	6	42	6	0	2	224	280	329	609	105	283	26	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	236	224	69	16	2	7	4	52	4	2	1	308	332	491	823	183	357	22	2	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	72	69	13	3	0	0	1	21	2	0	0	188	222	232	454	43	282	29	1	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	402	367	91	20	2	12	20	90	9	12	3	248	303	411	714	163	285	22	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	81	76	17	2	0	0	4	27	1	0	0	224	272	250	522	26	347	33	5	237	47	-5	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.6
2019	22	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	160	147	41	7	1	6	10	36	2	0	0	279	333	463	796	184	325	22	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	21	21	2	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	95	95	143	238	48	133	29	0	101	-46	-4	+0	-1	+0	+0	-0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	415	387	104	20	2	13	19	84	7	0	0	269	315	432	746	163	328	20	5	333	111	+6	+0	-1	+2	+9	1.5
2021	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	16	15	6	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	400	438	533	971	133	505	25	6	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	581	527	134	29	2	12	46	101	3	0	0	254	318	385	703	131	304	17	8	313	98	-1	+0	+3	+2	+13	1.7
2023	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	192	178	45	9	1	4	11	41	3	0	0	253	307	382	689	129	316	21	6	301	90	-2	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.4
2023	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	21	20	7	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	350	381	600	981	250	307	14	5	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	17	15	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	133	235	133	369		190	41	6	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	502	129	28	1	12	30	132	4	1	0	257	304	388	693	131	338	24	6	307	94	-4	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	250	55	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
2015	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	159	149	27	5	1	2	9	53	0	4	3	181	228	268	496	87	263	33	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	—	159	143	39	8	2	3	15	37	0	4	3	273	342	420	761	147	346	23	9	338	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	491	453	101	20	0	12	24	136	8	6	3	223	274	347	621	124	288	28	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	491	442	124	31	0	19	35	98	8	6	3	281	344	480	824	199	319	20	7	360	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	376	103	20	2	11	10	94	10	2	3	274	311	426	736	152	335	24	2	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	400	372	125	26	3	18	14	71	10	2	3	336	376	567	943	231	373	18	4	408	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	474	436	105	23	2	12	21	111	11	12	3	241	293	385	678	144	292	23	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	474	426	114	27	2	17	31	92	11	12	3	268	333	460	793	192	301	19	7	347	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	223	57	9	1	6	14	63	3	0	0	256	308	386	694	130	329	26	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	241	219	67	12	1	9	18	54	3	0	0	306	367	493	860	187	369	22	7	379	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	21	21	2	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	95	95	143	238	48	133	29	0	101	-46	-4	+0	-1	+0	+0	-0.4
2020	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	21	21	2	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	95	95	143	238	48	133	29	0	104	-46	-4	+0	-1	+0	+0	-0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	431	402	110	22	2	13	20	88	7	0	0	274	319	435	755	162	320	20	5	335	113	+7	+0	-1	+2	+9	1.6
2021	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	431	402	117	23	3	15	20	87	7	0	0	291	336	475	811	184	338	20	5	356	113	+7	+0	-1	+2	+9	1.6
2022	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	581	527	134	29	2	12	46	101	3	0	0	254	318	385	703	131	291	17	8	313	98	-1	+0	+3	+2	+13	1.7
2022	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	581	527	140	30	3	13	46	101	3	0	0	266	328	408	736	142	304	17	8	327	98	-1	+0	+3	+2	+13	1.7
2023	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	230	213	51	10	1	4	13	50	4	0	0	239	296	352	648	113	296	22	6	294	85	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2023	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	230	212	55	11	1	5	14	48	4	0	0	259	317	392	709	132	314	21	6	318	85	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	502	129	28	1	12	30	132	4	1	0	257	304	388	693	131	325	24	6	307	94	-4	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.8
2024	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	539	501	134	29	1	13	31	132	4	1	0	267	315	407	722	140	338	24	6	321	94	-4	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	250	55	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
2025	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	251	55	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
2015	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	159	149	27	5	1	2	9	53	0	4	3	181	228	268	496	87	268	33	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	491	456	101	20	0	12	24	136	8	6	3	221	274	344	619	123	281	28	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	377	103	20	2	11	10	94	10	2	3	273	311	424	735	151	327	24	2	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	474	439	105	23	2	12	21	111	11	12	3	239	293	383	675	144	285	23	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	222	57	9	1	6	14	63	3	0	0	257	308	387	696	131	332	26	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	21	21	2	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	95	95	143	238	48	133	29	0	101	-46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	431	401	110	22	2	13	20	88	7	0	0	274	319	436	756	162	334	20	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	581	527	134	29	2	12	46	101	3	0	0	254	318	385	703	131	304	17	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	230	211	51	10	1	4	13	50	4	0	0	242	296	355	651	114	306	22	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	500	129	28	1	12	30	132	4	1	0	258	304	390	694	132	338	24	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	500	129	28	1	12	30	132	4	1	0	258	304	390	694	132	338	24	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	128	115	22	4	0	2	11	46	1	0	1	191	268	278	546	87	294	36	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	325	296	70	14	1	8	23	85	3	2	1	237	297	370	666	133	302	26	7	297	87	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	214	195	47	10	1	5	15	56	2	2	1	240	300	373	673	133	307	26	7	300	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	200	182	43	9	0	5	14	53	2	0	0	232	291	359	650	127	298	26	7	291	83	-4	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	200	182	42	9	0	4	14	53	2	0	0	235	294	363	657	127	303	26	7	293	83	-4	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2157	1987	513	105	8	51	136	490	21	1	1	258	312	396	709	138	317	23	6	316	87	-1	-0	-6	+8	+47	4.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	154	32	2	15	41	148	6	0	0	257	311	392	703	135	317	23	6	316	87	-0	-0	-2	+3	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4109	3794	930	189	13	96	227	989	55	27	14	245	297	378	675	133	305	24	6	297	87	-4	-0	-7	+9	+51	5.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	147	30	2	15	36	156	9	4	2	245	298	377	674	132	305	24	6	297	87	-1	-0	-2	+3	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 21 PAwOBA .414 → .334 (−80)K% 9.5% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷0.947	×1.200	—	—	12.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.35%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.003	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.002	×0.830	—	×1.003	9.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.062	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .414 → .334; ISO .250 → .180; BABIP .353 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 17 PAwOBA .227 → .164 (−63)K% 29.4% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.983	×1.350	—	—	40.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.075	×0.710	—	×0.958	7.44%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.810	—	×0.958	4.56%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.019	×0.910	—	×0.958	19.01%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.026	×0.830	—	×0.958	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.820	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.047	×0.830	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .227 → .164; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 16 PAwOBA .474 → .389 (−85)K% 18.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.32%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	41.67%	÷1.110	×0.930	—	×1.033	36.06%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.988	×0.830	—	×1.033	14.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.172	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .474 → .389; ISO .133 → .111; BABIP .583 → .505. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 160 PAwOBA .436 → .344 (−92)K% 16.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.88%	÷0.957	×1.290	—	—	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.12%	÷0.974	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.22%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.29%
Singles /BIP	25.86%	÷0.974	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	23.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.62%	÷1.071	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	6.50%
Triples /BIP	0.86%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	7.76%	÷1.136	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.59%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .436 → .344; ISO .273 → .191; BABIP .380 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 402 PAwOBA .358 → .306 (−52)K% 18.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.91%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	22.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.01%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.98%
Singles /BIP	19.93%	÷1.011	×0.970	×1.012	×1.042	20.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.19%	÷1.081	×0.860	×1.012	×1.042	6.87%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷0.948	×0.950	×1.012	×1.042	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	6.05%	÷1.194	×0.780	—	×1.042	4.12%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .358 → .306; ISO .218 → .165; BABIP .301 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 72 PAwOBA .245 → .210 (−35)K% 22.2% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷0.978	×1.290	—	—	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.39%	÷1.024	×0.710	—	×1.050	1.01%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	2.86%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷1.034	×0.900	×1.029	×1.050	21.29%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷0.960	×0.810	×1.029	×1.050	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.973	×0.810	×1.029	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.162	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .245 → .210; ISO .058 → .048; BABIP .302 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 236 PAwOBA .457 → .346 (−110)K% 14.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.83%	÷0.897	×1.340	—	—	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.54%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×1.027	1.82%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.38%
Singles /BIP	26.74%	÷1.004	×0.910	×1.001	×1.027	24.91%
Doubles /BIP	11.23%	÷1.039	×0.820	×1.001	×1.027	9.11%
Triples /BIP	1.60%	÷1.136	×0.760	×1.001	×1.027	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	6.42%	÷1.600	×0.920	—	×1.027	3.79%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 220, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 127, K 79, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .457 → .346; ISO .284 → .180; BABIP .413 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 164 PAwOBA .322 → .269 (−52)K% 22.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.95%	÷1.051	×1.220	—	—	25.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.88%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.53%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	3.27%
Singles /BIP	24.56%	÷1.026	×0.970	×0.964	×1.050	23.50%
Doubles /BIP	4.39%	÷1.014	×0.860	×0.964	×1.050	3.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.964	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.183	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.64%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .322 → .269; ISO .153 → .109; BABIP .306 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Vance Law'80-'91 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,298 PA	6.5	4,298	71	34	253*	327*	401*	+13	-17	10.0	11.5
/162	664	11	5	+2.0	-2.6	1.5	pk7: 13
#2Gio Urshelalast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,982 PA	4.5	2,982	72	7	271	315	408	+11	+2	10.4	10.7
/162	664	16	2	+2.4	+0.5	2.3	pk7: 11
#3Casey McGeheelast yr '16 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,061 PA	4.6	3,061	67	7	258	318	386	+3	+7	8.3	8.3
/162	664	15	2	+0.7	+1.4	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Lonnie Chisenhalllast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,360 PA	3.6	2,360	64	20	268	320	427	-3	-9	8.0	7.9
/162	664	18	6	-0.8	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 8
#5Jeff Treadway'87-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,318 PA	3.5	2,318	28	14	280*	327*	411*	+8	+8	7.3	7.7
/162	664	8	4	+2.2	+2.2	2.1	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.5	2,350	57	3	260	311	400	+8	-1	6.9	7.1
/162	664	16	1	+2.4	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 7
#6Chris Stynes'95-'04 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,573 PA	3.9	2,573	51	49	264*	321*	387*	+1	-10	3.7	4.5
/162	664	13	13	+0.2	-2.5	1.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brendan Rodgers (OGILVIE)	30	50	45	45	50	235/294/366	131	302	5	2	26%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕P.J. Higgins 2023 · MLB	30	51→54	46→45	49→40	50	249/324/388	139	320	13	5	25%	9%	103	+1.5	227/282/338	111	299	10	3	26%	7%	75	-0.5	212/261/304	93	278	9	0	26%	5%	57	-1.4
✕Danny Mendick 2023 · MLB	29	49→47	44→45	43→50	46	241/301/359	118	302	12	7	24%	7%	87	+0.4	226/284/351	125	272	14	14	22%	7%	80	-0.2	215/273/335	119	256	13	15	21%	6%	69	-0.7
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	235/297/355	120	288	13	3	23%	7%	85	+0.2	238/316/395	157	299	19	5	26%	9%	102	+1.5	217/309/355	139	284	17	0	28%	11%	90	+0.2
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→53	44→45	47→45	43	235/284/351	116	290	12	7	23%	6%	78	-0.3	219/276/341	122	288	13	13	27%	7%	74	-0.5	193/251/296	103	252	12	14	28%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕James McCann 2020 · MLB	30	51→55	50	43→45	43	253/307/407	154	321	18	4	27%	6%	101	+1.4	246/306/395	149	319	18	5	28%	7%	98	+1.2	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Kevin Plawecki 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	46→45	46→30	49	249/320/387	138	293	13	5	19%	8%	101	+1.4	248/310/353	105	293	9	4	18%	7%	89	+0.5	238/300/320	82	288	6	0	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Dixon Machado 2022 · AAA	30	44→54	50→45	46→55	49	227/301/380	153	282	18	7	26%	9%	93	+0.8	233/304/322	89	276	8	8	17%	8%	80	-0.2	226/301/304	77	267	7	6	17%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Anthony Recker 2013 · MLB	29	42→48	49→50	44→45	47	217/290/365	148	280	18	7	28%	9%	85	+0.2	210/276/370	160	284	20	6	32%	8%	81	-0.1	188/252/352	165	248	22	2	34%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Elias Díaz 2021 · MLB	30	51→59	44→50	44→45	49	249/304/360	111	287	11	3	18%	7%	88	+0.5	236/293/387	151	270	18	2	19%	7%	91	+0.7	236/292/382	147	273	17	0	20%	7%	91	+0.5
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	43→50	48→50	49→45	43	219/287/358	139	283	15	8	28%	7%	82	+0.0	223/289/367	144	283	15	8	26%	7%	86	+0.3	212/283/357	146	264	15	6	25%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Charlie Culberson 2019 · MLB	30	48→54	46→45	47→50	41	238/278/366	128	297	13	9	24%	5%	80	-0.1	245/292/400	155	313	17	9	26%	6%	93	+0.8	244/286/380	136	314	13	10	26%	5%	86	+0.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	50→55	45→50	46	238/294/400	161	283	18	7	23%	7%	94	+0.9	215/283/374	159	261	17	6	24%	8%	85	+0.2	182/261/344	162	214	18	2	24%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Austin Nola 2020 · MLB	30	49→52	46→45	48→45	49	244/312/377	133	296	14	6	22%	8%	96	+1.0	257/328/392	135	300	13	5	18%	8%	105	+1.7	259/334/370	111	295	10	1	15%	8%	103	+0.7
✕John Hicks 2019 · MLB	29	51→52	49→55	43→50	41	254/298/402	148	325	17	6	27%	6%	97	+1.1	234/274/404	170	308	22	6	31%	5%	88	+0.4	211/245/385	174	278	23	9	33%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Humberto Cota 2010 · MLB	31	48	46→50	45→30	48	239/296/367	128	286	13	5	21%	8%	87	+0.4	253/316/370	117	307	12	3	20%	8%	95	+1.0	261/326/366	105	317	10	1	20%	8%	96	+0.6
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	46→45	42→30	44	212/270/342	130	268	13	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	212/286/361	149	271	16	6	27%	9%	83	+0.1	179/284/322	144	218	15	0	25%	12%	74	-0.2
✕Gerald Laird 2009 · MLB	29	50→47	45→50	42→50	46	247/300/376	128	293	12	6	20%	6%	91	+0.6	226/291/334	108	263	9	7	17%	7%	78	-0.3	262/328/360	98	303	6	3	14%	8%	98	+0.3

Brendan Rodgers

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps