Danny Mendick

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1993-09-28

Age (2027)33

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	28	AAACWS	39	.303/.359/.515	1	2	78	—	.222/.282/.306
2022	28	MLBCWS	106	.289/.343/.443	3	1	119	0.7
2023	29	AAANYM	425	.282/.369/.424	11	14	78	—	.233/.301/.331
2023	29	MLBNYM	69	.185/.232/.277	1	1	47	-0.5
2024	30	AAACWS	197	.263/.330/.514	11	3	65	—	.195/.244/.357
2024	30	MLBCWS	141	.197/.243/.318	3	6	55	-0.2
2025	31	No MLB games played
2026	32	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Speed30

Barrel%25

xwOBA11

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	208	180	46	8	1	5	20	28	4	8	2	256	343	394	738	139	275	13	10	328	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	53	48	6	2	0	0	5	10	0	0	0	125	208	167	374	42	158	19	9	183	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	412	369	101	20	2	2	31	75	9	8	5	274	345	355	700	81	337	18	8	318	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	165	147	29	5	0	3	17	27	0	1	2	197	280	293	573	95	222	16	10	264	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	305	263	76	18	4	7	31	40	6	11	4	289	377	468	844	179	315	13	10	370	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	74	69	20	4	0	1	2	13	2	4	0	290	329	391	720	101	339	18	3	320	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	529	453	112	25	0	14	57	90	10	20	10	247	344	395	739	148	275	17	11	330	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	40	39	12	0	0	2	1	11	0	0	0	308	325	462	787	154	385	28	2	348	120	+1	+0	+1	+6	+1	0.9
2019	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	558	477	133	26	1	17	66	96	5	19	8	279	372	444	817	166	313	17	12	360	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	114	107	26	4	1	3	6	25	0	0	1	243	283	383	666	140	287	22	5	294	84	-2	-0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
2021	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	186	164	36	5	0	2	18	42	2	0	1	220	304	287	591	67	281	23	10	273	71	-6	-0	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
2021	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	105	96	26	4	0	3	7	20	1	1	1	271	324	406	730	135	315	19	7	326	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	106	97	28	4	1	3	7	23	1	1	0	289	343	443	786	155	352	22	7	346	119	+2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.7
2022	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	39	33	10	4	0	1	3	12	1	2	2	303	359	515	874	212	450	31	8	374	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	69	65	12	3	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	185	232	277	509	92	224	22	6	231	47	-4	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.5
2023	29	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	425	373	105	18	1	11	46	60	6	14	2	282	369	424	793	142	311	14	11	358	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	141	132	26	7	0	3	6	35	2	6	0	197	243	318	561	121	245	25	4	251	55	-8	+1	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2024	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	197	179	47	12	0	11	17	43	1	3	5	263	330	514	844	251	288	22	9	369	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	656	604	140	23	2	14	42	151	5	8	2	232	287	346	633	114	286	23	6	284	78	-17	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	208	188	37	6	1	4	12	40	4	8	2	197	260	303	563	106	212	19	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	53	50	4	1	0	0	3	15	0	0	0	80	132	100	232	20	138	28	6	131	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	412	382	84	16	2	2	18	98	9	8	5	220	271	288	559	68	283	24	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	165	152	27	5	0	3	12	34	0	1	2	178	238	270	508	92	204	21	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	305	276	63	13	3	5	18	59	6	11	4	228	290	351	641	123	267	19	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	529	469	97	23	0	12	41	109	10	20	10	207	285	333	617	126	232	21	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	40	39	12	0	0	2	1	11	0	0	0	308	325	462	787	154	385	28	2	346	120	+1	+0	+1	+6	+1	0.9
2019	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	558	500	113	23	1	12	43	120	5	19	8	226	294	348	642	122	264	22	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	114	107	26	4	1	3	6	25	0	0	1	243	283	383	666	140	287	22	5	292	84	-2	-0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	186	164	36	5	0	2	18	42	2	0	1	220	304	287	591	67	281	23	10	273	71	-6	-0	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
2021	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	105	99	23	3	0	2	5	24	1	1	1	232	276	323	599	91	276	23	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	106	97	28	4	1	3	7	23	1	1	0	289	343	443	786	155	352	22	7	345	119	+2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.7
2022	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	39	36	8	3	0	0	2	15	1	2	2	222	282	306	588	83	377	38	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	69	65	12	3	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	185	232	277	509	92	224	22	6	238	47	-4	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.5
2023	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	425	387	90	15	1	7	32	75	6	14	2	233	301	331	632	98	274	18	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	141	132	26	7	0	3	6	35	2	6	0	197	243	318	561	121	245	25	4	249	55	-8	+1	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2024	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	197	185	36	9	0	7	11	52	1	3	5	195	244	357	600	162	236	26	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	208	188	37	6	1	4	12	40	4	8	2	197	260	303	563	106	226	19	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	208	180	46	8	1	5	20	28	4	8	2	256	343	394	738	139	275	13	10	328	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	432	89	17	2	2	21	114	9	8	5	206	258	269	526	63	274	25	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	465	417	107	22	2	2	36	85	9	8	5	257	329	333	662	77	316	18	8	303	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	544	495	106	21	4	9	34	107	8	16	6	214	276	327	603	113	253	20	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	544	479	125	27	4	11	50	80	8	16	6	261	341	403	744	142	291	15	9	331	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	529	469	97	23	0	12	41	109	10	20	10	207	285	333	617	126	239	21	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	529	453	112	25	0	14	57	90	10	20	10	247	344	395	739	148	275	17	11	330	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	598	539	125	23	1	14	44	131	5	19	8	232	296	356	652	124	277	22	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	598	516	145	26	1	19	67	107	5	19	8	281	369	446	815	165	317	18	11	359	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	114	107	26	4	1	3	6	25	0	0	1	243	283	383	666	140	287	22	5	292	84	-2	-0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	114	107	26	4	1	3	6	25	0	0	1	243	283	383	666	140	287	22	5	294	84	-2	-0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	291	263	59	8	0	4	23	66	3	1	2	224	294	300	594	76	284	23	8	265	65	-12	-1	-1	+1	+6	-0.7
2021	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	291	260	62	9	0	5	25	62	3	1	2	238	311	331	642	92	294	21	9	292	65	-12	-1	-1	+1	+6	-0.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	145	133	36	7	1	3	9	38	2	3	2	271	326	406	732	135	359	26	6	328	108	+1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.6
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	145	130	38	8	1	4	10	35	2	3	2	292	347	462	809	169	374	24	7	354	108	+1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.6
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	494	452	103	19	1	8	36	90	6	15	2	228	294	327	621	100	268	18	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	494	438	117	21	1	12	50	75	6	15	2	267	350	402	752	135	299	15	10	340	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	317	62	16	0	10	17	87	3	9	5	196	243	341	584	145	236	26	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	338	311	73	19	0	14	23	78	3	9	5	235	294	431	725	196	269	23	7	319	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	208	190	37	6	1	4	12	40	4	8	2	195	260	300	560	105	212	19	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	432	89	17	2	2	21	114	9	8	5	206	258	269	526	63	266	25	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	544	497	106	21	4	9	34	107	8	16	6	213	276	326	602	113	245	20	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	529	473	97	23	0	12	41	109	10	20	10	205	285	330	614	125	232	21	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	598	544	125	23	1	14	44	131	5	19	8	230	296	353	649	123	272	22	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	114	107	26	4	1	3	6	25	0	0	1	243	283	383	666	140	287	22	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	291	263	59	8	0	4	23	66	3	1	2	224	294	300	594	76	279	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	145	133	36	7	1	3	9	38	2	3	2	271	326	406	732	135	359	26	6	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	494	449	103	19	1	8	36	90	6	15	2	229	294	330	623	100	267	18	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	315	62	16	0	10	17	87	3	9	5	197	243	343	586	146	240	26	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	315	62	16	0	10	17	87	3	9	5	197	243	343	586	146	240	26	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	656	604	140	23	2	14	42	151	5	8	2	232	287	346	633	114	286	23	6	284	67	-17	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	139	23	2	14	42	150	5	8	2	232	288	348	636	115	287	23	6	284	67	-17	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3726	3395	740	144	11	69	243	807	50	99	43	218	280	328	608	110	264	22	7	267	67	-17	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	129	25	2	12	42	141	9	17	8	218	280	328	607	110	264	22	6	267	67	-17	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 197 PAwOBA .358 → .264 (−94)K% 21.8% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.83%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	26.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.63%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.59%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.46%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.997	×0.962	15.23%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.997	×0.962	7.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.997	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.09%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.962	5.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .358 → .264; ISO .251 → .172; BABIP .288 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 425 PAwOBA .348 → .284 (−65)K% 14.1% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.12%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.82%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.51%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.29%
Singles /BIP	23.96%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.991	×0.972	21.52%
Doubles /BIP	5.75%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.991	×0.972	4.93%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.991	×0.972	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.51%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .348 → .284; ISO .142 → .106; BABIP .311 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 39 PAwOBA .363 → .284 (−79)K% 30.8% → 37.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.77%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	37.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.07%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.37%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.003	×0.930	—	×0.982	21.69%
Doubles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.028	×0.830	—	×0.982	15.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.421	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .363 → .284; ISO .212 → .142; BABIP .450 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 105 PAwOBA .317 → .251 (−66)K% 19.0% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	22.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.33%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.89%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.990	×0.992	23.16%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.128	×0.830	×0.990	×0.992	3.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.990	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.95%	÷1.190	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.30%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .317 → .251; ISO .135 → .085; BABIP .315 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 558 PAwOBA .355 → .284 (−71)K% 17.2% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.20%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.36%	÷1.061	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	19.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷0.921	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	5.95%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷1.212	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .284; ISO .166 → .130; BABIP .313 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABirmingham Barons · 529 PAwOBA .326 → .270 (−55)K% 17.0% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.01%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷0.954	×0.680	—	×0.998	7.66%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	1.58%
Singles /BIP	20.11%	÷1.069	×0.920	×0.963	×0.998	16.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.89%	÷0.969	×0.910	×0.963	×0.998	6.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.963	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.86%	÷0.949	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.25%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .326 → .270; ISO .148 → .131; BABIP .275 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 305 PAwOBA .362 → .282 (−80)K% 13.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.11%	÷0.966	×1.420	—	—	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.84%	÷1.046	×0.630	—	×0.988	5.85%
HBP% /PA	1.97%	—	×0.860	—	×0.988	1.67%
Singles /BIP	21.08%	÷0.999	×0.940	×0.970	×0.988	19.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.07%	÷1.080	×0.830	×0.970	×0.988	5.94%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷0.902	×0.800	×0.970	×0.988	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	3.14%	÷1.275	×0.900	—	×0.988	2.19%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .362 → .282; ISO .179 → .132; BABIP .315 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABirmingham Barons · 165 PAwOBA .257 → .219 (−38)K% 16.4% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.36%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.30%	÷1.001	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.50%	÷1.009	×0.920	×1.002	×1.012	16.18%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.021	×0.910	×1.002	×1.012	3.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.880	×1.002	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷0.894	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.26%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .257 → .219; ISO .095 → .086; BABIP .222 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).