Andrew Knizner

C Worcester Red Sox

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 5.802 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	146	.238/.317/.331	2	1	48	—	.176/.250/.235
2024	29	MLBTEX	93	.167/.185/.211	1	0	5	-0.3
2025	30	AAASF	129	.378/.520/.520	1	0	151	—	.327/.449/.452
2025	30	MLBSF	88	.221/.302/.299	1	0	74	0.6
2026	31	AAABOS	234	.294/.393/.552	12	2	99	—	.231/.303/.406
2026	31	MLBSF	80	.219/.288/.356	2	0	87	0.6
2027PROJ45% MLB	32	MLBBOS	86	.231/.307/.369	2	1	87	0.2
2028PROJ53% MLB	33	MLBBOS	81	.222/.298/.351	2	0	80	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.802First FA2028

2027Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd30

xwOBA15

Barrel%14

Avg EV12

Speed10

Form.225/.290/.354 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .223/.298/.358

CompsBryan Holaday (age 32) · Miguel Ojeda (age 32) · Elias Díaz (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8987vR 79

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .307 / .369

PA86

HR2

K%20

BB%7

BABIP267

ISO128

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

150.223

POWER35

Barrel%

143.6

Avg EV

1286.2

Bat Spd

3069.2

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1024.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▲18% over 57 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%6%▼4% over 57 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.130·.113 over 53 AB (60d) · proj .135

HR/BB3.0%·2.3% over 43 BBE (60d) · proj 3.3%

BABIP.257·.262 over 42 BIP (60d) · proj .257

SLASH.225/.290/.354·proj .223/.298/.358

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 181 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

129

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

219

224

—

ISO

078

052

◀◀L

BABIP

241

213

◀L

19.2%

17.1%

▶R

BB%

0.0%

6.2%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.802 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	222	185	59	12	1	6	21	21	14	0	0	319	427	492	919	173	331	9	9	408	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	202	182	59	13	0	4	14	27	2	0	1	324	379	462	840	137	355	13	7	368	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	191	179	50	10	1	8	9	22	3	1	1	279	325	480	805	201	282	12	5	354	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	72	67	24	3	0	3	4	11	1	0	0	358	403	537	940	179	396	15	6	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	61	54	17	5	0	0	4	8	2	0	0	315	383	407	791	93	370	13	7	353	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	313	281	88	13	0	7	23	40	3	0	1	313	371	434	805	121	339	13	7	355	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	58	53	12	2	0	2	4	14	1	2	0	226	293	377	670	151	270	24	7	302	93	-0	+0	-3	+6	+1	0.4
2019	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	280	246	68	10	0	12	24	37	8	2	0	276	360	463	823	187	281	13	9	365	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	250	250	312	562	62	333	29	0	235	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
2021	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	185	161	28	7	0	1	20	39	4	0	0	174	281	236	517	62	223	21	11	249	50	-11	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.7
2021	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	20	17	5	1	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	294	400	353	753	59	333	10	15	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	293	260	56	10	0	4	26	62	6	0	1	215	301	300	601	85	268	21	9	279	76	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2023	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	241	224	54	11	0	10	12	62	3	2	0	241	289	424	713	183	288	26	5	313	101	+0	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.6
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	93	90	15	1	0	1	1	22	1	0	0	167	185	211	396	44	206	24	1	178	5	-10	+0	+1	+4	+2	-0.3
2024	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	113	99	23	4	0	2	10	24	3	1	0	232	321	333	655	101	284	21	9	300	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	33	31	8	2	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	258	303	323	626	65	381	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	88	77	17	1	1	1	7	10	2	0	0	221	302	299	601	78	239	11	8	273	74	-3	+0	+3	+4	+2	0.6
2025	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	129	98	37	11	0	1	19	18	10	0	1	378	520	520	1.040	143	444	14	15	461	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	80	73	16	4	0	2	4	14	3	0	0	219	287	356	644	137	246	18	5	292	87	-1	+0	+0	+6	+2	0.6
2026	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	234	201	59	16	0	12	29	39	4	2	0	294	393	552	945	259	313	17	12	413	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1055	954	202	37	1	21	74	228	20	4	1	212	282	319	601	107	255	22	7	274	71	-36	+0	-8	+33	+23	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	222	193	49	9	1	5	13	30	14	0	0	254	345	389	734	135	264	14	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	202	186	56	12	0	3	10	33	2	0	1	301	343	414	757	113	334	16	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	191	182	42	8	1	6	6	29	3	1	1	231	267	385	652	154	244	15	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	61	55	15	4	0	0	3	11	2	0	0	273	333	345	679	73	342	18	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	313	289	82	12	0	5	15	49	3	0	1	284	326	377	703	93	312	16	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	58	53	12	2	0	2	4	14	1	2	0	226	293	377	670	151	270	24	7	306	93	-0	+0	-3	+6	+1	0.4
2019	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	280	253	59	9	0	10	17	48	8	2	0	233	302	387	690	154	246	17	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	250	250	312	562	62	333	29	0	232	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	185	163	28	7	0	1	18	39	4	0	0	172	270	233	503	61	223	21	10	242	50	-11	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	293	260	56	10	0	4	26	62	6	0	1	215	301	300	601	85	268	21	9	281	76	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	241	224	55	11	0	11	12	62	3	2	0	246	293	442	735	196	288	26	5	318	101	+0	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.6
2024	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	93	90	15	1	0	1	1	22	1	0	0	167	185	211	396	44	206	24	1	176	5	-10	+0	+1	+4	+2	-0.3
2024	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	113	102	18	3	0	1	7	30	3	1	0	176	250	235	485	59	234	27	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	88	77	17	1	1	1	7	10	2	0	0	221	302	299	601	78	239	11	8	277	74	-3	+0	+3	+4	+2	0.6
2025	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	129	104	34	10	0	1	13	21	10	0	1	327	449	452	901	125	382	16	10	392	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	80	73	16	4	0	2	4	14	3	0	0	219	287	356	644	137	246	18	5	297	87	-1	+0	+0	+6	+2	0.6
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	234	212	49	13	0	8	18	47	4	2	0	231	303	406	709	175	265	20	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	222	193	49	9	1	5	13	30	14	0	0	254	345	389	734	135	275	14	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	222	185	59	12	1	6	21	21	14	0	0	319	427	492	919	173	331	9	9	408	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	465	437	116	23	1	11	18	73	6	1	2	265	304	398	702	133	294	16	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	465	428	133	26	1	15	27	60	6	1	2	311	360	481	841	171	331	13	6	369	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	374	344	97	16	0	5	18	59	5	0	1	282	327	372	699	90	323	16	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	374	335	105	18	0	7	27	48	5	0	1	313	373	430	803	116	344	13	7	355	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	306	71	11	0	12	21	62	9	4	0	232	301	386	686	154	252	18	6	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	338	299	80	12	0	14	28	51	9	4	0	268	348	448	796	181	280	15	8	354	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	250	250	312	562	62	333	29	0	232	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	17	16	4	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	250	250	312	562	62	333	29	0	235	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	205	181	30	7	0	1	20	43	4	1	0	166	263	221	484	55	212	21	10	242	50	-12	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.7
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	205	178	33	8	0	1	23	41	4	1	0	185	293	247	540	62	235	20	11	259	50	-12	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.7
2022	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	293	260	56	10	0	4	26	62	6	0	1	215	301	300	601	85	268	21	9	281	76	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	293	260	56	10	0	4	26	62	6	0	1	215	301	300	601	85	268	21	9	279	76	-8	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	241	224	55	11	0	11	12	62	3	2	0	246	293	442	735	196	289	26	5	318	101	+0	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.6
2023	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	241	224	54	11	0	10	12	62	3	2	0	241	289	424	713	183	288	26	5	313	101	+0	+0	-4	+4	+5	0.6
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	239	224	38	5	0	2	9	60	4	1	0	170	215	219	434	49	220	25	4	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	239	220	46	7	0	3	13	56	4	1	0	209	266	282	548	73	264	23	5	250	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	217	181	52	11	1	2	20	31	12	0	1	287	394	392	787	105	331	14	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	217	175	54	12	1	2	26	28	12	0	1	309	432	423	855	114	351	13	12	385	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	314	285	66	17	0	10	22	61	7	2	0	232	303	396	699	165	262	19	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	314	274	75	20	0	14	33	53	7	2	0	274	366	500	866	226	295	17	11	382	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	222	193	49	9	1	5	13	30	14	0	0	254	345	389	734	135	264	14	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	465	438	116	23	1	11	18	73	6	1	2	265	304	397	701	132	290	16	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	374	348	97	16	0	5	18	59	5	0	1	279	327	368	695	89	317	16	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	338	305	71	11	0	12	21	62	9	4	0	233	301	387	687	154	250	18	6	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	17	17	4	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	235	250	294	544	59	333	29	0	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	205	179	30	7	0	1	20	43	4	1	0	168	263	223	487	56	223	21	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	293	259	56	10	0	4	26	62	6	0	1	216	301	301	603	85	268	21	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	241	224	55	11	0	11	12	62	3	2	0	246	293	442	735	196	288	26	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	239	224	38	5	0	2	9	60	4	1	0	170	215	219	434	49	221	25	4	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	217	183	52	11	1	2	20	31	12	0	1	284	394	388	782	104	324	14	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	314	282	66	17	0	10	22	61	7	2	0	234	303	401	703	167	260	19	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	239	224	38	5	0	2	9	60	4	1	0	170	215	219	434	49	221	25	4	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	217	183	52	11	1	2	20	31	12	0	1	284	394	388	782	104	324	14	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	314	282	66	17	0	10	22	61	7	2	0	234	303	401	703	167	260	19	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	299	268	60	14	1	7	22	58	7	2	1	223	301	358	659	135	257	19	7	297	87	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	86	78	17	4	0	2	6	17	2	1	0	231	307	369	677	139	267	20	7	304	87	-1	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	152	136	28	6	0	3	11	30	4	1	0	215	292	340	632	125	250	20	7	286	80	-4	+0	-5	+3	+3	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	81	73	16	4	0	2	6	16	2	0	0	222	298	351	649	129	260	20	7	293	80	-2	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1136	1027	218	41	1	23	80	244	22	4	1	212	283	321	605	109	255	21	7	275	85	-38	+0	-11	+35	+25	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	125	23	1	13	46	140	13	2	1	213	285	321	606	109	256	22	7	275	85	-22	+0	-6	+20	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3267	2956	700	136	4	70	204	615	79	13	5	237	303	357	660	120	275	19	6	294	85	-43	+1	-14	+39	+30	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	139	27	1	14	41	122	16	3	1	236	304	357	661	121	274	19	6	294	85	-20	+0	-7	+18	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 234 PAwOBA .401 → .314 (−87)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.97%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.94%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.55%
Singles /BIP	19.14%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.006	×0.962	17.21%
Doubles /BIP	9.88%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.006	×0.962	7.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.006	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.99%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .401 → .314; ISO .259 → .188; BABIP .313 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 129 PAwOBA .457 → .392 (−65)K% 14.0% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.73%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.77%
HBP% /PA	7.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	7.08%
Singles /BIP	31.25%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.994	×0.972	27.27%
Doubles /BIP	13.75%	÷0.959	×0.830	×0.994	×0.972	11.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.994	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.25%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .457 → .392; ISO .143 → .125; BABIP .444 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 113 PAwOBA .295 → .226 (−69)K% 21.2% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.24%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	26.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.85%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.92%
HBP% /PA	2.65%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.45%
Singles /BIP	22.67%	÷1.076	×0.930	×0.995	×0.982	19.14%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷1.025	×0.830	×0.995	×0.982	4.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	×0.995	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷1.124	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .295 → .226; ISO .101 → .068; BABIP .284 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 280 PAwOBA .356 → .301 (−55)K% 13.2% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.21%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.21%	÷1.035	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.91%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.93%
Singles /BIP	22.01%	÷1.014	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	4.78%	÷0.917	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	4.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.74%	÷0.982	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.78%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .356 → .301; ISO .187 → .156; BABIP .281 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 313 PAwOBA .350 → .307 (−43)K% 12.8% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.78%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.03%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.93%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.86%
Singles /BIP	28.22%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.006	×1.027	26.44%
Doubles /BIP	5.39%	÷0.973	×0.840	×1.006	×1.027	4.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.006	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷1.215	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.96%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .350 → .307; ISO .121 → .094; BABIP .339 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 61 PAwOBA .344 → .308 (−36)K% 13.1% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.11%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.56%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.050	5.09%
HBP% /PA	3.28%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	3.37%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.984	×1.050	24.65%
Doubles /BIP	10.87%	÷0.957	×0.810	×0.984	×1.050	9.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.984	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .344 → .308; ISO .093 → .080; BABIP .370 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 202 PAwOBA .365 → .323 (−42)K% 13.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.37%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.93%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.82%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.90%
Singles /BIP	27.10%	÷0.992	×0.920	×1.006	×1.042	26.34%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.009	×0.840	×1.006	×1.042	7.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.093	×0.940	×1.006	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.58%	÷1.315	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.64%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .365 → .323; ISO .137 → .106; BABIP .355 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 APeoria Chiefs · 191 PAwOBA .342 → .284 (−58)K% 11.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.52%	÷1.046	×1.360	—	—	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.19%	÷0.969	×0.690	—	—	2.98%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.23%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷1.035	×0.920	×0.995	—	17.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.37%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.995	—	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷0.983	×0.910	×0.995	—	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷0.970	×0.800	—	—	4.20%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 109, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .342 → .284; ISO .201 → .165; BABIP .282 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Gerald Lairdlast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	37	21	244	305	354	+48	-40	3.7	5.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.9	-9.8	0.9	pk7: 7
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
/162	664	11	0	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	1.8	1,204	25	5	214	283	325	+22	-9	1.6	2.0
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-5.2	0.9	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrew Knizner (OGILVIE)	32	45	35	40	30	221/298/355	134	257	4	1	19%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	46→45	45	41→45	50	227/292/347	120	263	13	5	19%	8%	81	-0.1	233/294/353	120	273	12	7	19%	7%	83	+0.1	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Kevin Plawecki 2023 · MLB	32	51→59	41→45	47→30	50	246/311/346	100	286	9	4	17%	7%	88	+0.4	226/285/335	109	270	11	3	20%	7%	76	-0.4	215/272/316	101	256	10	0	20%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	45	48→40	46	221/280/340	119	261	14	6	22%	7%	76	-0.4	238/302/348	110	299	11	5	23%	7%	85	+0.2	237/301/332	94	305	9	2	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Dan Wilson 2001 · MLB	32	47→52	44→45	41→40	50	230/288/344	114	262	12	5	17%	8%	79	-0.2	256/297/374	118	299	12	4	18%	5%	88	+0.5	260/297/370	110	304	11	2	18%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→54	44→50	49→40	48	259/314/378	119	292	12	5	16%	6%	97	+1.1	229/296/348	119	289	11	7	23%	8%	83	+0.1	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	48→50	45	40	252/290/391	139	319	16	5	26%	5%	91	+0.6	221/261/335	114	301	13	5	30%	5%	67	-1.1	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Iker Franco 2013 · AAA	32	46→47	46→50	40	48	231/289/355	124	269	15	3	21%	8%	82	+0.0	223/279/316	93	271	10	3	21%	7%	69	-0.9	234/287/315	81	287	9	1	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Gerald Laird 2013 · MLB	33	51→47	43→50	46→50	50	246/302/357	112	276	10	5	15%	7%	87	+0.4	241/309/338	97	286	7	6	17%	8%	85	+0.2	231/306/298	66	286	2	2	18%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Jonathan Aceves 2010 · AAA	32	44	47→50	43→30	42	224/270/360	136	270	15	5	24%	5%	76	-0.4	214/260/338	124	269	14	5	25%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Francisco Cordoba 2016 · AAA	32	46→52	43→45	43→40	42	228/277/330	103	281	12	3	24%	5%	72	-0.7	209/259/293	84	257	8	5	21%	5%	57	-1.8	194/247/293	99	225	12	1	20%	5%	51	-1.3
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	235/297/355	120	288	13	3	23%	7%	85	+0.2	238/316/395	157	299	19	5	26%	9%	102	+1.5	217/309/355	139	284	17	0	28%	11%	90	+0.2
✕Gary Bennett 2004 · MLB	32	51	40	45→40	48	242/292/331	89	274	7	5	15%	6%	77	-0.3	227/286/321	94	260	8	4	15%	7%	73	-0.6	215/276/300	84	246	7	1	15%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Phil Gosselin 2021 · MLB	32	48→58	45	45	48	238/301/368	130	295	12	5	23%	8%	89	+0.5	242/295/356	114	307	11	8	24%	6%	84	+0.1	242/292/343	101	307	9	7	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Issmael Salas 2014 · AAA	32	48	47→45	48→50	45	239/289/377	137	276	14	7	19%	6%	87	+0.4	235/277/334	99	271	9	6	16%	5%	72	-0.7	237/282/342	105	262	10	5	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Royce Huffman 2009 · AAA	32	45→50	42→45	43→45	48	220/289/327	107	273	9	6	22%	8%	76	-0.4	230/293/331	101	290	9	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	234/298/316	83	294	6	5	21%	7%	74	-0.5
✕Angel Berroa 2009 · MLB	32	47→56	44→50	44→50	44	231/276/344	113	261	11	5	17%	5%	74	-0.5	220/263/332	112	256	11	7	18%	4%	67	-1.1	244/286/384	140	291	15	5	21%	4%	86	+0.2

Andrew Knizner

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps