Seth Mejias-Brean
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AASEA | 538 | .258/.339/.376 | 10 | 5 | 71 | — | .232/.288/.338 | |
| 2019 | 28 | AAASD | 448 | .316/.371/.455 | 11 | 4 | 70 | — | .239/.282/.344 | |
| 2019 | 28 | MLBSD | 33 | .233/.303/.500 | 2 | 0 | 125 | -0.7 | ||
| 2021 | 30 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 246 | .234/.321/.390 | 8 | 7 | 51 | — | .189/.248/.291 | |
| 2022 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 203 | 179 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 313 | 391 | 536 | 927 | 223 | 336 | 14 | 10 | 405 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 545 | 479 | 146 | 35 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 305 | 383 | 453 | 836 | 148 | 350 | 15 | 10 | 371 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 264 | 226 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 235 | 335 | 323 | 658 | 88 | 287 | 19 | 12 | 301 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 313 | 267 | 80 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 49 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 300 | 399 | 476 | 874 | 176 | 330 | 16 | 14 | 387 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 80 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 275 | 264 | 539 | 69 | 236 | 20 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 475 | 405 | 100 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 96 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 354 | 360 | 714 | 114 | 307 | 20 | 13 | 326 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 480 | 435 | 99 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 91 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 87 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 143 | 131 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 329 | 359 | 687 | 92 | 315 | 15 | 7 | 312 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 291 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 71 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 268 | 332 | 340 | 672 | 72 | 339 | 22 | 7 | 304 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 400 | 350 | 93 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 351 | 389 | 740 | 123 | 305 | 17 | 10 | 332 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 138 | 126 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 304 | 341 | 646 | 103 | 292 | 20 | 8 | 294 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 33 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 500 | 803 | 267 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 350 | 125 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 448 | 411 | 130 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 79 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 316 | 371 | 455 | 826 | 139 | 370 | 18 | 7 | 368 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 190 | 171 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 289 | 333 | 623 | 123 | 250 | 22 | 9 | 285 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 56 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 319 | 429 | 596 | 1.024 | 277 | 400 | 25 | 16 | 445 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 33 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 500 | 803 | 267 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 350 | 123 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +1 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 203 | 187 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 292 | 390 | 682 | 155 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 545 | 496 | 125 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 110 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 252 | 313 | 365 | 678 | 113 | 305 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 264 | 237 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 60 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 232 | 300 | 316 | 616 | 84 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 313 | 278 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 68 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 315 | 345 | 660 | 112 | 285 | 22 | 11 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 475 | 428 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 120 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 307 | 336 | 644 | 100 | 309 | 25 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 480 | 443 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 111 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 79 | 275 | 23 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 143 | 134 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 82 | 296 | 20 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 323 | 298 | 71 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 89 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 288 | 295 | 584 | 57 | 316 | 28 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 400 | 365 | 87 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 238 | 298 | 345 | 643 | 107 | 284 | 21 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 138 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 261 | 315 | 576 | 100 | 270 | 24 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 33 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 500 | 803 | 267 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 353 | 125 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 448 | 422 | 101 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 106 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 282 | 344 | 625 | 104 | 297 | 24 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 190 | 178 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 226 | 253 | 479 | 79 | 230 | 27 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 56 | 50 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 321 | 420 | 741 | 180 | 340 | 30 | 11 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 203 | 187 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 292 | 390 | 682 | 155 | 271 | 21 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 203 | 179 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 313 | 391 | 536 | 927 | 223 | 336 | 14 | 10 | 405 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 545 | 496 | 125 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 110 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 252 | 313 | 365 | 678 | 113 | 309 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 545 | 479 | 146 | 35 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 83 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 305 | 383 | 453 | 836 | 148 | 350 | 15 | 10 | 371 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 657 | 587 | 137 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 146 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 233 | 309 | 332 | 641 | 99 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 657 | 565 | 147 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 84 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 260 | 358 | 388 | 746 | 127 | 301 | 18 | 13 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 475 | 428 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 120 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 307 | 336 | 644 | 100 | 314 | 25 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 475 | 405 | 100 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 96 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 354 | 360 | 714 | 114 | 307 | 20 | 13 | 326 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 480 | 443 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 111 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 79 | 280 | 23 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 480 | 435 | 99 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 91 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 291 | 315 | 606 | 87 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 432 | 103 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 117 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 238 | 288 | 301 | 589 | 62 | 316 | 25 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 422 | 113 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 93 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 268 | 331 | 346 | 677 | 78 | 331 | 20 | 7 | 307 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 495 | 115 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 288 | 337 | 626 | 105 | 284 | 22 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 538 | 476 | 123 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 53 | 95 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 258 | 339 | 376 | 715 | 118 | 301 | 18 | 10 | 322 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 481 | 452 | 108 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 115 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 283 | 354 | 637 | 115 | 297 | 24 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 481 | 441 | 137 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 311 | 367 | 458 | 825 | 147 | 364 | 18 | 7 | 367 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 228 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 193 | 252 | 294 | 546 | 101 | 253 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 246 | 218 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 234 | 321 | 390 | 711 | 156 | 279 | 23 | 11 | 321 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 203 | 186 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 237 | 292 | 392 | 685 | 156 | 268 | 21 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 545 | 496 | 125 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 110 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 252 | 313 | 365 | 678 | 113 | 305 | 20 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 657 | 588 | 137 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 146 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 233 | 309 | 332 | 640 | 99 | 287 | 22 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 475 | 428 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 120 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 307 | 336 | 644 | 100 | 309 | 25 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 480 | 446 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 111 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 220 | 272 | 298 | 570 | 78 | 275 | 23 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 433 | 103 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 117 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 238 | 288 | 300 | 588 | 62 | 310 | 25 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 494 | 115 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 233 | 288 | 338 | 626 | 105 | 280 | 22 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 481 | 450 | 108 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 115 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 240 | 283 | 356 | 639 | 116 | 295 | 24 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 226 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 195 | 252 | 296 | 548 | 102 | 255 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 33 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 500 | 803 | 267 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 350 | 72 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 137 | 39 | 0 | 39 | 59 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 302 | 496 | 797 | 264 | 261 | 27 | 9 | 350 | 72 | +18 | +0 | +1 | -169 | +14 | -14.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4091 | 3748 | 875 | 138 | 24 | 63 | 273 | 947 | 40 | 53 | 23 | 233 | 293 | 334 | 626 | 100 | 294 | 23 | 7 | 275 | 72 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 139 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 150 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 233 | 291 | 334 | 625 | 101 | 294 | 23 | 7 | 275 | 72 | +18 | +0 | +1 | -169 | +14 | -14.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 190 PAwOBA .275 → .221 (−54)K% 22.1% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.11% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.42% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.38% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×0.972 | 18.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×0.972 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.61% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .275 → .221; ISO .123 → .087; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 56 PAwOBA .433 → .320 (−113)K% 25.0% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.07% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.948 | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.948 | 22.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.12% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 10.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 5.34% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .433 → .320; ISO .277 → .184; BABIP .400 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 448 PAwOBA .358 → .272 (−86)K% 17.6% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.63% | ÷0.965 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.52% | ÷1.033 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷1.044 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.31% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .272; ISO .139 → .105; BABIP .370 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 400 PAwOBA .327 → .283 (−44)K% 16.8% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.75% | ÷1.031 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.50% | ÷1.103 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.38% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | ×1.038 | ×1.003 | 22.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷0.885 | ×0.810 | ×1.038 | ×1.003 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.038 | ×1.003 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 77, 3B 80, K 106, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .327 → .283; ISO .123 → .111; BABIP .305 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 138 PAwOBA .286 → .244 (−42)K% 20.3% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.29% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×1.041 | ×0.978 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .286 → .244; ISO .103 → .093; BABIP .292 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAArkansas Travelers · 323 PAwOBA .299 → .258 (−42)K% 22.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.98% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷1.005 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.55% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 28.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.024 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .299 → .258; ISO .072 → .057; BABIP .339 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAATacoma Rainiers · 143 PAwOBA .304 → .268 (−36)K% 15.4% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.028 | ×1.290 | — | — | 19.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.99% | ÷0.979 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.85% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.988 | ×0.810 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.029 | ×1.018 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .304 → .268; ISO .092 → .077; BABIP .315 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 480 PAwOBA .268 → .251 (−17)K% 19.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.96% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.46% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.033 | 22.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.23% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.033 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.033 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .268 → .251; ISO .087 → .079; BABIP .274 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).