Francisco Mejía

C Tigres del Licey

Age 31 S/R 5'8" / 188 lbs INTL Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

INTLExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	474	.266/.344/.409	11	4	78	—	.235/.293/.349
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	254	.250/.294/.407	7	2	66	—	.171/.203/.270
2026	30	INTLTigres del Li…	26	.273/.385/.318	0	0	110	—
2027PROJMLE	31	MLBWSH	209	.235/.284/.370	5	3	82	0.2
2028PROJ22% MLB	32	MLBWSH	24	.228/.276/.354	1	0	76	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed26

Bat Spd17

Avg EV16

Barrel%15

xwOBA14

CompsKoyie Hill (age 31) · Tim Federowicz (age 31) · Brett Nicholas (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 130 proj PA

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .282 / .366

PA130

HR3

K%23

BB%6

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT45

xAVG

200.226

POWER50

Barrel%

153.7

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

2626.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	17	ROK	AZL Indians	—	113	105	32	9	1	4	5	18	2	3	1	305	348	524	872	219	337	16	4	378	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Lake County Captains	—	446	391	95	13	0	9	38	78	10	4	1	243	326	345	671	102	281	17	9	303	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	184	168	56	12	1	4	13	24	1	1	2	333	385	488	873	155	366	13	7	383	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	259	239	83	17	3	7	15	39	1	1	0	347	388	531	920	184	388	15	6	398	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	24	22	5	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	227	227	227	455		312	29	0	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	383	347	103	21	2	14	24	53	5	7	2	297	351	490	841	193	311	14	6	364	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	82	77	26	1	0	2	2	7	2	0	0	338	370	429	799	91	348	9	2	355	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	62	56	10	2	0	3	5	19	1	0	0	179	258	375	633	196	206	31	8	283	78	-2	+0	-1	+11	+1	1.0
2018	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	468	427	125	30	2	14	25	83	7	0	0	293	342	471	813	178	331	18	5	352	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	71	66	17	1	0	0	2	10	0	2	0	258	279	273	552	15	293	14	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	244	226	60	11	2	8	13	56	4	1	1	265	317	438	755	173	319	23	5	333	112	+4	-0	-0	+6	+5	1.4
2019	23	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	73	63	23	8	2	4	5	10	2	0	0	365	429	746	1.175	381	365	14	7	478	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	42	39	3	1	0	1	1	9	2	0	0	77	143	179	322	103	69	21	2	153	-9	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.3
2020	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	60	55	9	1	0	1	3	14	0	0	0	164	207	236	443	73	195	23	5	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	277	250	65	15	3	6	17	49	7	0	0	260	325	416	741	156	299	18	6	327	107	+2	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.5
2021	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	71	133	71	205		111	33	7	107	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	299	289	70	22	0	6	7	65	2	0	0	242	265	381	646	138	292	22	2	285	79	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2023	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	160	150	34	11	0	5	6	38	1	0	1	227	261	400	661	173	266	24	4	286	81	-4	-0	-3	+6	+3	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	92	86	28	3	1	6	4	21	1	0	0	326	363	593	956	267	367	23	4	411	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	101	88	26	1	0	1	10	13	1	0	0	295	374	341	715	45	329	13	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	376	332	91	14	2	11	38	65	2	1	0	274	352	428	780	154	308	17	10	346	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Dominican Republic	—	98	86	20	7	1	0	7	7	3	3	0	233	312	337	650	105	247	7	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	159	149	32	4	0	6	9	32	0	2	0	215	259	362	622	148	232	20	6	276	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	95	87	27	10	1	1	6	11	0	0	0	310	351	483	834	172	342	12	6	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	26	22	6	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	273	385	318	703	45	316	12	15	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1084	1010	242	62	5	29	49	236	17	1	2	240	286	397	683	157	284	22	5	302	90	-13	-1	-4	+35	+23	4.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	113	107	24	6	1	3	3	26	2	3	1	224	259	383	642	159	265	23	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	446	403	83	12	0	6	26	105	10	4	1	206	271	280	551	74	253	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	184	173	53	10	1	4	8	36	1	1	2	306	341	445	786	139	352	20	4	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	259	245	74	15	3	4	9	51	1	1	0	302	329	437	766	135	356	20	3	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	383	355	100	18	2	11	16	65	5	7	2	282	322	437	758	155	304	17	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	62	56	10	2	0	3	5	19	1	0	0	179	258	375	633	196	206	31	8	284	78	-2	+0	-1	+11	+1	1.0
2018	22	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	468	435	104	22	1	11	17	109	7	0	0	239	279	370	649	131	286	23	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	244	227	61	12	2	8	12	56	4	1	1	269	317	445	762	176	319	23	5	334	112	+4	-0	-0	+6	+5	1.4
2019	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	73	64	21	7	2	4	4	13	2	0	0	328	386	688	1.073	359	316	18	5	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	42	39	3	1	0	1	1	9	2	0	0	77	143	179	322	103	69	21	2	154	-9	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.3
2021	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	277	250	64	15	3	6	17	49	7	0	0	256	321	412	733	156	299	18	6	327	107	+2	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	299	289	69	22	0	6	7	65	2	0	0	239	262	377	639	138	292	22	2	285	79	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	160	150	34	11	0	5	6	38	1	0	1	227	261	400	661	173	266	24	4	288	81	-4	-0	-3	+6	+3	0.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	92	87	23	2	1	4	3	25	1	0	0	264	297	448	745	184	315	27	3	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	376	344	81	11	2	8	26	79	2	1	0	235	293	349	642	113	275	21	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	159	152	26	3	0	4	6	37	0	2	0	171	203	270	472	99	195	23	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	113	107	24	6	1	3	3	26	2	3	1	224	259	383	642	159	269	23	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	—	113	105	32	9	1	4	5	18	2	3	1	305	348	524	872	219	337	16	4	378	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	446	403	83	12	0	6	26	105	10	4	1	206	271	280	551	74	262	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	446	391	95	13	0	9	38	78	10	4	1	243	326	345	671	102	281	17	9	303	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	467	439	134	26	4	9	18	92	2	2	2	305	336	444	780	139	363	20	4	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	467	429	144	29	4	11	28	70	2	2	2	336	379	499	878	163	376	15	6	381	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	465	430	122	22	2	14	20	80	7	7	2	284	326	442	768	158	315	17	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	465	424	129	22	2	16	26	60	7	7	2	304	354	479	833	175	318	13	6	363	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	601	556	130	28	2	15	25	145	8	2	0	234	277	372	649	138	285	24	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	601	549	152	33	2	17	32	112	8	2	0	277	326	437	763	160	316	19	5	332	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	291	81	18	4	11	16	69	6	1	1	278	329	481	810	203	326	22	5	355	126	+10	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.2
2019	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	317	289	83	19	4	12	18	66	6	1	1	287	342	505	847	218	330	21	6	367	126	+10	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.2
2020	24	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	102	96	7	3	0	2	2	22	2	0	0	73	110	167	277	94	68	22	2	154	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	102	94	12	2	0	2	4	23	2	0	0	128	180	213	393	85	143	23	4	179	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	264	68	16	3	7	18	52	7	0	0	258	322	420	742	163	295	18	6	327	107	+3	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.5
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	292	264	66	15	3	6	18	54	7	0	0	250	315	398	713	148	291	18	6	316	107	+3	+0	+1	+5	+6	1.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	299	289	69	22	0	6	7	65	2	0	0	239	262	377	639	138	288	22	2	285	79	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2022	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	299	289	70	22	0	6	7	65	2	0	0	242	265	381	646	138	292	22	2	285	79	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2023	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	353	332	79	19	1	12	12	88	3	0	1	238	271	410	681	172	283	25	3	295	86	-6	-0	-3	+6	+8	0.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	353	324	88	15	1	12	20	72	3	0	1	272	320	435	755	164	310	20	6	329	86	-6	-0	-3	+6	+8	0.5
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	431	103	14	2	11	32	100	5	4	0	239	299	357	656	118	282	21	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	474	418	111	21	3	11	45	72	5	4	0	266	344	409	753	144	293	15	9	334	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	254	243	42	5	0	7	9	60	0	2	0	173	202	280	482	107	197	24	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	254	236	59	14	1	7	15	43	0	2	0	250	294	407	700	157	277	17	6	308	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	26	22	6	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	273	385	318	703	45	316	12	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	26	22	6	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	273	385	318	703	45	316	12	15	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	113	107	24	6	1	3	3	26	2	3	1	224	259	383	642	159	265	23	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	446	407	83	12	0	6	26	105	10	4	1	204	271	278	549	74	253	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	467	444	134	26	4	9	18	92	2	2	2	302	336	439	775	137	354	20	4	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	465	435	122	22	2	14	20	80	7	7	2	280	326	437	763	156	304	17	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	601	563	130	28	2	15	25	145	8	2	0	231	277	368	644	137	277	24	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	292	81	18	4	11	16	69	6	1	1	277	329	479	809	202	318	22	5	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	102	97	7	3	0	2	2	22	2	0	0	72	110	165	275	93	69	22	2	154	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	265	68	16	3	7	18	52	7	0	0	257	322	419	741	162	299	18	6	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	299	288	69	22	0	6	7	65	2	0	0	240	262	378	640	139	292	22	2	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	353	335	79	19	1	12	12	88	3	0	1	236	271	406	677	170	284	25	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	434	103	14	2	11	32	100	5	4	0	237	299	355	654	118	275	21	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	254	243	42	5	0	7	9	60	0	2	0	173	202	280	482	107	195	24	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	434	103	14	2	11	32	100	5	4	0	237	299	355	654	118	275	21	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	254	243	42	5	0	7	9	60	0	2	0	173	202	280	482	107	195	24	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	209	194	45	8	1	5	12	47	1	3	1	235	284	370	653	135	281	22	6	290	82	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22%	111	103	23	4	0	3	6	26	1	1	0	228	276	355	631	126	276	23	5	281	76	-3	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	22%	24	23	6	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	228	276	354	630	125	275	25	4	281	76	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1108	1033	248	63	5	30	50	242	17	1	2	240	286	398	684	158	284	22	5	301	82	-13	-1	-5	+36	+24	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	146	37	3	18	29	142	10	1	1	241	287	401	688	160	284	22	4	301	82	-8	-0	-3	+21	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4450	4127	999	201	20	109	205	962	56	28	8	242	287	380	667	138	287	22	5	289	82	-18	+0	-8	+39	+29	4.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	146	29	3	16	30	141	8	4	1	242	287	380	667	138	287	22	5	289	82	-9	+0	-4	+19	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 159 PAwOBA .267 → .209 (−58)K% 20.1% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.13%	÷1.028	×1.200	—	—	23.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.03%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.80%	÷0.987	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	16.36%
Doubles /BIP	3.42%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	2.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷0.960	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .267 → .209; ISO .148 → .105; BABIP .232 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 376 PAwOBA .340 → .282 (−58)K% 17.3% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.29%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	21.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.11%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.75%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.49%
Singles /BIP	23.97%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.972	×0.982	22.37%
Doubles /BIP	5.24%	÷1.010	×0.830	×0.972	×0.982	4.11%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.972	×0.982	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	4.12%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .340 → .282; ISO .154 → .119; BABIP .308 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 92 PAwOBA .403 → .308 (−95)K% 22.8% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.83%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.992	2.94%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.01%
Singles /BIP	27.69%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.988	×0.992	25.08%
Doubles /BIP	4.62%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.988	×0.992	3.68%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.003	×0.970	×0.988	×0.992	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	9.23%	÷1.137	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .403 → .308; ISO .267 → .173; BABIP .367 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 73 PAwOBA .485 → .423 (−62)K% 13.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.70%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.85%	÷1.050	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.85%
HBP% /PA	2.74%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.81%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷1.033	×0.900	—	×1.048	15.50%
Doubles /BIP	15.09%	÷1.044	×0.810	—	×1.048	12.27%
Triples /BIP	3.77%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.048	3.56%
Home runs /BIP	7.55%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.048	6.49%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .485 → .423; ISO .381 → .333; BABIP .365 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 468 PAwOBA .345 → .283 (−62)K% 17.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.74%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.91%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.050	3.72%
HBP% /PA	1.50%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.54%
Singles /BIP	22.97%	÷1.032	×0.900	×0.995	×1.050	20.94%
Doubles /BIP	8.72%	÷1.098	×0.810	×0.995	×1.050	6.73%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.995	×1.050	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	4.07%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.19%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .345 → .283; ISO .178 → .134; BABIP .331 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAkron RubberDucks · 383 PAwOBA .359 → .327 (−32)K% 13.8% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.84%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.01%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.17%
HBP% /PA	1.31%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.16%
Singles /BIP	22.45%	÷0.978	×0.970	×1.004	×1.042	23.30%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.072	×0.860	×1.004	×1.042	6.00%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.004	×1.042	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.008	×0.780	—	×1.042	3.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .359 → .327; ISO .193 → .160; BABIP .311 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ALake County Captains · 259 PAwOBA .388 → .333 (−55)K% 15.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.06%	÷1.033	×1.360	—	—	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.63%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.015	3.29%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.31%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷1.001	×0.920	×1.013	×1.015	26.44%
Doubles /BIP	8.50%	÷0.973	×0.830	×1.013	×1.015	7.45%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷0.981	×0.910	×1.013	×1.015	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	3.50%	÷1.274	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.23%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 107, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .388 → .333; ISO .184 → .141; BABIP .388 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 184 PAwOBA .377 → .334 (−43)K% 13.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.04%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	19.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.07%	÷1.015	×0.630	—	×1.027	4.50%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.48%
Singles /BIP	27.08%	÷0.969	×0.940	×1.004	×1.027	27.08%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×1.027	7.13%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.037	×0.800	×1.004	×1.027	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷0.932	×0.900	—	×1.027	2.75%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 107, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .377 → .334; ISO .155 → .137; BABIP .366 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nick Hundleylast yr '19 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,373 PA	5.1	3,373	93	15	247	299	405	+60	-31	10.3	10.8
/162	664	18	3	+11.9	-6.0	2.0	pk7: 11
#2Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.8	1,196	32	3	246	289	403	+21	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	18	2	+11.9	-1.7	2.4	pk7: 4
#3Javier Valentin'97-'08 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,663 PA	2.5	1,663	45	0	241*	298*	388*	+25	-2	3.7	4.0
/162	664	18	0	+10.1	-0.9	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Brian Johnson'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	49	1	237*	279*	395*	+26	-0	3.5	3.7
/162	664	21	0	+11.1	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Eddie Perez'95-'05 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,651 PA	2.5	1,651	40	1	243*	285*	379*	+27	-1	2.6	3.1
/162	664	16	0	+10.7	-0.4	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Mejía (OGILVIE)	31	45	50	45	30	233/282/366	134	281	3	2	23%	6%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Koyie Hill 2010 · MLB	31	46→42	44→45	45→40	44	226/281/348	122	289	11	4	25%	7%	78	-0.3	206/253/300	94	274	8	5	27%	6%	55	-1.9	181/220/251	69	241	6	3	27%	5%	31	-1.3
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Brett Nicholas 2018 · MLB	30	48→50	46→50	43→40	40	238/279/366	127	295	13	4	24%	5%	80	-0.1	227/275/359	132	285	14	5	25%	6%	78	-0.3	213/264/342	129	263	15	1	25%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	45	48→40	46	221/280/340	119	261	14	6	22%	7%	76	-0.4	238/302/348	110	299	11	5	23%	7%	85	+0.2	237/301/332	94	305	9	2	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Anthony Recker 2015 · MLB	31	41→48	52→50	42→45	42	216/275/381	165	287	21	5	32%	7%	84	+0.1	204/276/349	145	275	17	5	31%	8%	76	-0.4	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	42→43	52→55	53→50	44	221/281/388	168	277	20	12	28%	7%	87	+0.4	228/294/417	189	303	24	9	32%	8%	99	+1.3	202/264/392	189	261	26	2	33%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Wilmer Difo 2023 · MLB	31	48→56	43→45	47→55	46	235/281/341	106	276	10	7	19%	6%	75	-0.5	213/277/308	95	274	9	19	24%	8%	67	-1.1	198/271/278	80	262	7	25	26%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Nick Hundley 2015 · MLB	31	44→45	47→55	43→40	41	226/271/356	130	279	15	4	25%	5%	76	-0.4	256/299/409	153	310	16	5	22%	6%	98	+1.2	259/299/420	161	312	16	3	22%	5%	102	+0.8
✕Chase Lambin 2010 · AAA	31	47→50	49→55	46→45	42	236/291/387	152	313	16	6	29%	6%	90	+0.6	213/264/323	110	281	11	6	27%	5%	65	-1.2	206/256/307	100	270	10	3	27%	5%	57	-1.4
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Jonathan Aceves 2009 · AAA	31	45	50	48→30	43	232/287/385	152	281	18	5	24%	6%	88	+0.5	215/260/340	125	266	14	4	24%	5%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→48	51→55	48→40	41	225/263/384	158	261	20	7	23%	4%	79	-0.2	204/257/357	153	239	21	6	25%	5%	72	-0.7	174/227/317	143	193	22	1	25%	5%	51	-1.7
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	48→50	45	40	252/290/391	139	319	16	5	26%	5%	91	+0.6	221/261/335	114	301	13	5	30%	5%	67	-1.1	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕P.J. Higgins 2024 · MLB	31	50→54	45	49→40	47	245/310/374	129	313	13	4	25%	8%	94	+0.9	212/262/303	91	278	8	2	25%	6%	59	-1.6	196/245/268	72	256	6	0	25%	5%	43	-2.0
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Jacob Wilson 2021 · AAA	31	46→48	50	46→40	48	237/300/395	158	283	18	6	23%	8%	96	+1.0	220/286/390	170	267	19	6	25%	7%	90	+0.6	195/265/376	181	225	20	0	24%	7%	77	-0.2

Francisco Mejía

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps