Brett Nicholas
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | AAATEX | 447 | .288/.354/.458 | 13 | 2 | 86 | — | .249/.297/.390 | |
| 2016 | 28 | MLBTEX | 45 | .275/.356/.550 | 2 | 0 | 141 | 1.4 | ||
| 2017 | 29 | AAATEX | 293 | .311/.354/.469 | 7 | 2 | 69 | — | .237/.271/.345 | |
| 2017 | 29 | MLBTEX | 65 | .238/.262/.397 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 0.3 | ||
| 2018 | 30 | AAASD | 456 | .291/.355/.485 | 16 | 1 | 67 | — | .215/.267/.345 | |
| 2019 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 507 | 449 | 128 | 34 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 84 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 285 | 357 | 414 | 771 | 129 | 329 | 17 | 9 | 342 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 575 | 506 | 146 | 25 | 3 | 21 | 46 | 123 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 289 | 363 | 474 | 837 | 186 | 336 | 21 | 8 | 365 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 66 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 277 | 393 | 670 | 164 | 260 | 17 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 491 | 452 | 124 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 112 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 274 | 325 | 389 | 714 | 115 | 341 | 23 | 5 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 438 | 403 | 108 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 79 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 317 | 412 | 729 | 144 | 303 | 18 | 6 | 321 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 44 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 233 | 268 | 501 | 73 | 242 | 18 | 2 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 45 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 356 | 550 | 906 | 275 | 310 | 20 | 9 | 394 | 141 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +9 | +1 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 447 | 400 | 115 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 287 | 354 | 458 | 811 | 170 | 338 | 20 | 9 | 356 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 65 | 63 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 262 | 397 | 658 | 159 | 271 | 20 | 3 | 290 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +6 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 293 | 273 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 311 | 354 | 469 | 823 | 158 | 375 | 20 | 4 | 362 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 456 | 412 | 120 | 30 | 1 | 16 | 37 | 86 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 355 | 485 | 841 | 194 | 332 | 19 | 8 | 369 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 110 | 103 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 300 | 456 | 756 | 204 | 286 | 20 | 5 | 332 | 111 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +15 | +2 | 1.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 507 | 470 | 113 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 118 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 240 | 285 | 338 | 623 | 98 | 295 | 23 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 575 | 528 | 134 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 152 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 303 | 388 | 691 | 134 | 311 | 26 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 491 | 461 | 107 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 142 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 272 | 315 | 586 | 82 | 310 | 29 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 438 | 412 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 99 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 226 | 262 | 328 | 589 | 102 | 267 | 23 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 45 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 356 | 550 | 906 | 275 | 310 | 20 | 9 | 376 | 141 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +9 | +1 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 447 | 413 | 103 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 113 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 249 | 297 | 390 | 687 | 140 | 307 | 25 | 6 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 65 | 63 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 262 | 397 | 658 | 159 | 271 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +6 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 293 | 278 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 271 | 345 | 617 | 108 | 305 | 25 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 456 | 423 | 91 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 113 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 267 | 345 | 612 | 130 | 260 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 507 | 470 | 113 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 118 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 240 | 285 | 338 | 623 | 98 | 302 | 23 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 507 | 449 | 128 | 34 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 84 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 285 | 357 | 414 | 771 | 129 | 329 | 17 | 9 | 342 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 641 | 590 | 150 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 170 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 302 | 390 | 691 | 136 | 321 | 27 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 641 | 567 | 160 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 49 | 134 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 282 | 354 | 466 | 820 | 183 | 327 | 21 | 8 | 358 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 491 | 461 | 107 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 142 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 272 | 315 | 586 | 82 | 316 | 29 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 491 | 452 | 124 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 112 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 274 | 325 | 389 | 714 | 115 | 341 | 23 | 5 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 452 | 102 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 226 | 263 | 327 | 591 | 102 | 274 | 23 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 482 | 444 | 116 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 87 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 261 | 309 | 399 | 708 | 137 | 297 | 18 | 6 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 453 | 114 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 122 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 252 | 302 | 404 | 706 | 152 | 312 | 25 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 440 | 126 | 32 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 97 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 286 | 354 | 466 | 820 | 180 | 335 | 20 | 9 | 359 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 358 | 341 | 81 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 87 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 270 | 355 | 625 | 117 | 298 | 24 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 358 | 336 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 298 | 337 | 455 | 792 | 158 | 355 | 20 | 4 | 349 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 456 | 423 | 91 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 113 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 267 | 345 | 612 | 130 | 265 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 456 | 412 | 120 | 30 | 1 | 16 | 37 | 86 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 291 | 355 | 485 | 841 | 194 | 332 | 19 | 8 | 369 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 507 | 473 | 113 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 118 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 285 | 336 | 621 | 97 | 295 | 23 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 641 | 596 | 150 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 170 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 302 | 386 | 687 | 134 | 311 | 27 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 491 | 463 | 107 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 142 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 272 | 313 | 585 | 82 | 310 | 29 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 456 | 102 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 263 | 325 | 588 | 101 | 267 | 23 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 456 | 114 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 122 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 250 | 302 | 401 | 704 | 151 | 307 | 25 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 358 | 340 | 81 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 87 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 270 | 356 | 626 | 118 | 299 | 24 | 3 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 456 | 423 | 91 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 113 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 267 | 345 | 612 | 130 | 260 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 110 | 103 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 300 | 456 | 756 | 204 | 286 | 20 | 5 | 332 | 74 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +15 | +2 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 154 | 53 | 0 | 24 | 35 | 130 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 300 | 458 | 758 | 205 | 286 | 20 | 5 | 332 | 74 | +9 | +0 | -12 | +90 | +14 | 10.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3427 | 3190 | 758 | 147 | 7 | 71 | 152 | 861 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 238 | 282 | 355 | 636 | 117 | 300 | 25 | 4 | 278 | 74 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +15 | +2 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 143 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 163 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 236 | 280 | 350 | 631 | 114 | 298 | 25 | 4 | 278 | 74 | +9 | +0 | -12 | +90 | +14 | 10.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 456 PAwOBA .361 → .267 (−94)K% 18.9% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.86% | ÷0.983 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷1.032 | ×0.900 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷1.098 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×0.972 | 0.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷1.045 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .361 → .267; ISO .194 → .134; BABIP .332 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 293 PAwOBA .352 → .270 (−82)K% 20.1% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.14% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.10% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 2.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.10% | ÷1.039 | ×0.900 | ×0.991 | ×0.982 | 22.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.41% | ÷1.039 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×0.982 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.046 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×0.982 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.27% | ÷1.117 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .352 → .270; ISO .158 → .110; BABIP .375 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARound Rock Express · 447 PAwOBA .348 → .296 (−52)K% 19.7% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.69% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.72% | ÷0.949 | ×0.900 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 22.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.65% | ÷1.079 | ×0.810 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | ×1.026 | ×0.992 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.839 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 3.84% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .348 → .296; ISO .170 → .143; BABIP .338 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAARound Rock Express · 438 PAwOBA .315 → .256 (−59)K% 18.0% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.04% | ÷1.031 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.94% | ÷1.014 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.184 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .315 → .256; ISO .144 → .102; BABIP .303 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARound Rock Express · 491 PAwOBA .311 → .259 (−52)K% 22.8% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.09% | ÷1.033 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷0.984 | ×0.900 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 25.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷0.953 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.018 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 111, 3B 91, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .311 → .259; ISO .115 → .086; BABIP .341 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 575 PAwOBA .358 → .303 (−55)K% 21.4% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.39% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.162 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.33% | ÷0.933 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 24.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.986 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 87, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 97, BB 132 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .358 → .303; ISO .186 → .142; BABIP .336 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 507 PAwOBA .336 → .275 (−61)K% 16.6% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.57% | ÷1.013 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷1.102 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷1.013 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.32% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 7.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷1.163 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 103, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .336 → .275; ISO .129 → .104; BABIP .329 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .