Eric Haase

C San Francisco Giants
Age 34 R/R 5'10" / 201 lbs MLB HR -15%H -3% Svc 4.430 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLBArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202431AAAMIL170.279/.369/.5039182—.221/.286/.370
202431MLBMIL69.273/.304/.515501240.8
202532AAAMIL77.203/.320/.3121044—.191/.267/.294
202532MLBMIL77.229/.289/.35720830.5
202633AAACWS70.295/.377/.5083083—.238/.304/.381
202633MLBSF84.162/.235/.36540660.1
2027PROJ34MLBSF120.209/.278/.37851890.3
2028PROJ82% MLB35MLBSF66.198/.266/.3552079-0.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.430First FA2029
2027Arb-2$0.9M2028Arb-3$0.9M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%84
Speed71
Bat Spd50
xwOBA28
Avg EV12
CompsCody Ransom (age 34) · Dustin Garneau (age 34) · Taylor Motter (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9289vR 80
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .278 / .378
PA120
HR5
K%30
BB%8
BABIP264
ISO174
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 27 / POW 64
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT27
xAVG
100.203
POWER64
Barrel%
8413.3
Avg EV
1286.2
Bat Spd
5071.3
EYE73
scouting grade only
SPEED63
Sprint
7128.3
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 146 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
48
98
—
wRC+
109
101
◀L
wOBA
329
317
◀L
ISO
271
142
◀◀L
BABIP
269
449
▶▶R
K%
37.5%
41.8%
◀L
BB%
6.3%
4.1%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2018
Service   4.430 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$0.9M+0.3$1M+$0.3M
2028Arb-3$0.9M———
Totals $0.9M $-0.3M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201219 ROKAZL Indians — 109103 291123 5290 10 282315515829 233361 275 356 45 — — — — — —
201320 ALake County Captains — 420376 9423314 401171 22 250324439763 189324 2810 336 57 — — — — — —
201421 A+Carolina Mudcats — 7065 12401 5190 01 185243292535 108244 277 243 9 — — — — — —
201421 ALake County Captains — 328296 8016416 28843 12 270339514853 243325 269 372 66 — — — — — —
201522 A+Lynchburg Hillcats — 370320 792679 3611411 32 247343456800 209352 3110 352 53 — — — — — —
201623 AAAkron RubberDucks — 246226 4714112 17751 02 208266438704 230250 307 306 46 — — — — — —
201623 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 1918 5300 150 00 278316444760 167385 265 335 113 — — — — — —
201724 AAAkron RubberDucks — 381333 8617526 441163 42 258350574924 315312 3012 397 85 — — — — — —
201825 MLBCleveland Indians — 1716 2000 061 00 125176125301 200 350 150 -13 -2 +0 -0 +9 +0 0.7
201825 AAAColumbus Clippers — 477433 10224320 311434 31 236293443736 208296 306 318 62 — — — — — —
201926 MLBCleveland Indians — 1716 1001 180 00 62118250368 188 476 163 -3 -2 +0 -0 +7 +0 0.6
201926 AAAColumbus Clippers — 401350 7912328 421425 11 226317517835 291279 3510 359 75 — — — — — —
202027 MLBDetroit Tigers — 1917 3000 160 00 176222176399 250 325 180 9 -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.1
202128 MLBDetroit Tigers — 381351 8112122 261192 20 231288459746 228278 317 326 112 +5 +0 -1 +7 +8 2.0
202128 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 2823 8301 5100 10 3484646091.073 261583 3618 466 120 — — — — — —
202229 MLBDetroit Tigers — 351323 8217114 24971 00 254307443750 189316 287 329 112 +5 +0 -3 +6 +8 1.6
202330 MLBCleveland Guardians — 293274 55814 17810 41 201247281528 80268 286 239 47 -19 +0 +1 +6 +6 -0.6
202330 AAAColumbus Clippers — 3026 4001 380 00 154241269511 115167 2710 230 8 — — — — — —
202431 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 6966 18105 3280 00 273304515819 242394 414 357 124 +2 +0 +0 +4 +1 0.8
202431 AAANashville Sounds — 170147 41609 19562 11 279369503872 224386 3311 381 82 — — — — — —
202532 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 7770 16302 4312 00 229289357647 129378 405 289 83 -2 +0 +2 +3 +2 0.5
202532 AAANashville Sounds — 7764 13401 11200 00 203320312633 109267 2614 287 44 — — — — — —
202633 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 8474 12304 6281 00 162235365599 203190 337 257 66 -3 +0 +0 +3 +2 0.1
202633 AAACharlotte Knights — 7061 18403 7181 01 295377508885 213366 2610 385 83 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 13081207 27044352 824047 61 224277394671 171288 316 296 86 -21 +1 -2 +46 +28 5.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201219 ROK MLEAZL Indians — 109105 19712 3420 10 181204324528 143281 393 234 45 — — — — — —
201320 A MLELake County Captains — 420386 7317311 301591 22 189249334584 145282 387 252 57 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLECarolina Mudcats — 7067 10301 3280 01 149186239425 90228 404 181 9 — — — — — —
201421 A MLELake County Captains — 328305 6012311 191163 12 197251364615 167271 356 266 66 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLELynchburg Hillcats — 370334 581856 2215711 32 174248311559 138294 426 246 53 — — — — — —
201623 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 246230 381119 13921 02 165213339552 174219 375 236 46 — — — — — —
201724 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 381348 6912419 291433 42 198266420685 221268 388 294 85 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLECleveland Indians — 1716 2000 061 00 125176125301 200 350 149 -13 -2 +0 -0 +9 +0 0.7
201825 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 477442 8920315 221694 31 201246362608 161269 355 260 62 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLECleveland Indians — 1716 1001 180 00 62118250368 188 476 164 -3 -2 +0 -0 +7 +0 0.6
201926 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 401365 669323 271725 11 181247411658 230243 437 279 75 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 1917 3000 160 00 176222176399 250 325 181 9 -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.1
202128 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 381351 8312123 261192 20 236293473766 236278 317 333 112 +5 +0 -1 +7 +8 2.0
202128 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 2825 7201 3120 10 280357480837 200494 4311 345 120 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 351324 8417115 23971 00 259310457767 198316 287 333 112 +5 +0 -3 +6 +8 1.6
202330 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 293275 55814 16810 41 200244280524 80268 285 237 47 -19 +0 +1 +6 +6 -0.6
202330 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 3027 4001 2100 00 148207259466 111152 337 180 8 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 6966 18105 3280 00 273304515819 242394 414 352 124 +2 +0 +0 +4 +1 0.8
202431 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 170154 34506 12682 11 221286370656 149341 407 289 82 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 7770 16302 4312 00 229289357647 129378 405 290 83 -2 +0 +2 +3 +2 0.5
202532 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 7768 13401 7240 00 191267294561 103239 319 233 44 — — — — — —
202633 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 8474 12304 6281 00 162235365599 203190 337 266 66 -3 +0 +0 +3 +2 0.1
202633 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 7063 15302 5221 01 238304381685 143303 317 291 83 — — — — — —
201219 ROK MLEAZL Indians — 109105 19712 3420 10 181204324528 143274 393 234 45 — — — — — —
201219 ROK RAWAZL Indians — 109103 291123 5290 10 282315515829 233361 275 356 45 — — — — — —
201320 A MLELake County Captains — 420386 7317311 301591 22 189249334584 145284 387 252 57 — — — — — —
201320 A RAWLake County Captains — 420376 9423314 401171 22 250324439763 189324 2810 336 57 — — — — — —
201421 A MLE2 teams — 398372 7015312 221443 13 188239341581 153267 366 251 56 — — — — — —
201421 A RAW2 teams — 398361 9220417 331033 13 255322474796 219310 268 349 56 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLELynchburg Hillcats — 370334 581856 2215711 32 174248311559 138301 426 246 53 — — — — — —
201522 A+ RAWLynchburg Hillcats — 370320 792679 3611411 32 247343456800 209352 3110 352 53 — — — — — —
201623 AA MLE2 teams — 265248 4212110 14991 02 169217347564 177229 375 236 46 — — — — — —
201623 AA RAW2 teams — 265244 5217112 18801 02 213270439708 225261 307 308 46 — — — — — —
201724 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 381348 6912419 291433 42 198266420685 221267 388 294 85 — — — — — —
201724 AA RAWAkron RubberDucks — 381333 8617526 441163 42 258350574924 315312 3012 397 85 — — — — — —
201825 AAA MLE2 teams — 494458 9120315 221755 31 199243354597 155276 354 256 60 — — — — — —
201825 AAA RAW2 teams — 494449 10424320 311495 31 232289432721 200293 306 312 60 — — — — — —
201926 AAA MLE2 teams — 418381 679324 281805 11 176242404646 228239 437 274 72 — — — — — —
201926 AAA RAW2 teams — 418366 8012329 431505 11 219309505815 287268 3610 351 72 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 1917 3000 160 00 176222176399 250 325 181 9 -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.1
202027 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 1917 3000 160 00 176222176399 250 325 180 9 -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.1
202128 MLB MLE2 teams — 409376 9015124 291312 30 239297476773 237296 327 334 112 +6 +1 -1 +7 +9 2.2
202128 MLB RAW2 teams — 409374 8915123 311292 30 238300468768 230295 328 335 112 +6 +1 -1 +7 +9 2.2
202229 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 351324 8417115 23971 00 259310457767 198321 287 333 112 +5 +0 -3 +6 +8 1.6
202229 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 351323 8217114 24971 00 254307443750 189316 287 329 112 +5 +0 -3 +6 +8 1.6
202330 MLB MLE2 teams — 323302 59815 18910 41 195241278519 83260 286 232 43 -22 +0 +1 +6 +7 -0.8
202330 MLB RAW2 teams — 323300 59815 20890 41 197247280527 83260 286 238 43 -22 +0 +1 +6 +7 -0.8
202431 AAA MLE2 teams — 239220 536011 15962 11 241295418714 177368 406 307 94 — — — — — —
202431 AAA RAW2 teams — 239213 597014 22842 11 277350507857 230388 359 374 94 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 154138 29703 11552 00 210278326604 116317 367 262 63 -7 +0 +2 +3 +3 0.1
202532 MLB RAW2 teams — 154134 29703 15512 00 216305336640 119317 3310 288 63 -7 +0 +2 +3 +3 0.1
202633 MLB MLE2 teams — 154137 27606 11502 01 197267372639 175256 327 277 74 -5 -0 +0 +3 +3 0.1
202633 MLB RAW2 teams — 154135 30707 13462 01 222300430730 207277 308 315 74 -5 -0 +0 +3 +3 0.1
201219 ROK MLEAZL Indians — 109105 19712 3420 10 181204324528 143281 393 234 45 — — — — — —
201320 A MLELake County Captains — 420386 7317311 301591 22 189249334584 145282 387 252 57 — — — — — —
201421 A MLE2 teams — 398370 7015312 221443 13 189239343583 154263 366 251 56 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLELynchburg Hillcats — 370334 581856 2215711 32 174248311559 138294 426 246 53 — — — — — —
201623 AA MLE2 teams — 265248 4212110 14991 02 169217347564 177219 375 236 46 — — — — — —
201724 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 381346 6912419 291433 42 199266422688 223268 388 294 85 — — — — — —
201825 AAA MLE2 teams — 494464 9120315 221755 31 196243349592 153267 354 256 60 — — — — — —
201926 AAA MLE2 teams — 418382 679324 281805 11 175242403645 228233 437 274 72 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 1918 3000 160 00 167222167389 250 325 181 9 — — — — — —
202128 MLB MLE2 teams — 409375 9015124 291312 30 240297477775 237293 327 334 112 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 351324 8417115 23971 00 259310457767 198316 287 333 112 — — — — — —
202330 MLB MLE2 teams — 323302 59815 18910 41 195241278519 83258 286 232 43 — — — — — —
202431 AAA MLE2 teams — 239220 536011 15962 11 241295418714 177356 406 307 94 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 154140 29703 11552 00 207278321600 114309 367 262 63 — — — — — —
202633 MLB MLE2 teams — 154140 27606 11502 01 193267364631 171242 327 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202431 AAA MLE2 teams — 239220 536011 15962 11 241295418714 177356 406 307 94 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 154140 29703 11552 00 207278321600 114309 367 262 63 — — — — — —
202633 MLB MLE2 teams — 154140 27606 11502 01 193267364631 171242 327 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202734 MLB MLESF 100% 194175 37708 15592 20 214282393676 180268 308 299 89 -3 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202734 MLB CTXSF 100% 120109 23405 9361 10 209278378656 169264 308 291 89 -2 +0 -0 +2 +3 0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202835 MLB MLESF 82% 8073 14203 6251 00 203270369640 166258 318 284 79 -2 +0 -6 +1 +2 -0.5
202835 MLB CTXSF 82% 6660 11202 5211 00 198266355621 157253 328 277 79 -2 +0 -5 +1 +1 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13741267 28146354 874258 61 222276391667 169286 316 295 71 -23 +1 -7 +47 +30 4.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650599 13322126 412014 30 222276392668 170285 316 295 71 -11 +0 -3 +22 +14 2.3
Career— MLE — 47044328 87117526171 293168640 2416 201258372631 171280 366 273 71 -25 +1 -8 +49 +33 5.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650598 12124424 402336 32 202259376636 174281 366 273 71 -11 +0 -4 +21 +14 2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 70 PAwOBA .380 → .291 (−89)K% 25.7% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.71%÷1.000×1.200——30.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9406.49%
HBP% /PA1.43%—×0.940—×0.9401.26%
Singles /BIP25.58%÷1.000×0.930—×0.94022.36%
Doubles /BIP9.30%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9407.26%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP6.98%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9404.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .380 → .291; ISO .213 → .148; BABIP .366 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 77 PAwOBA .288 → .233 (−56)K% 26.0% → 30.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.97%÷1.010×1.200——30.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9429.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9420.00%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷0.983×0.930×1.046×0.94216.95%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷0.973×0.830×1.046×0.9427.64%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.046×0.9420.00%
Home runs /BIP2.27%÷1.111×0.700—×0.9421.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .288 → .233; ISO .109 → .084; BABIP .267 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 170 PAwOBA .372 → .289 (−84)K% 32.9% → 40.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.94%÷0.983×1.200——40.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.18%÷1.014×0.690—×0.9527.24%
HBP% /PA1.18%—×0.940—×0.9521.05%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.951×0.930×1.008×0.95226.79%
Doubles /BIP6.59%÷1.010×0.830×1.008×0.9525.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.008×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP9.89%÷0.909×0.700—×0.9527.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .372 → .289; ISO .224 → .160; BABIP .386 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 30 PAwOBA .232 → .180 (−51)K% 26.7% → 31.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷1.008×1.200——31.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷0.994×0.690—×0.9626.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷0.963×0.930—×0.96215.49%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.830—×0.9620.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.037×0.700—×0.9623.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .232 → .180; ISO .115 → .077; BABIP .167 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 28 PAwOBA .454 → .345 (−109)K% 35.7% → 42.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.71%÷1.000×1.200——42.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.86%÷1.038×0.690—×0.98211.66%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9820.00%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷0.991×0.930—×0.98228.36%
Doubles /BIP23.08%÷1.013×0.830—×0.98218.56%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.981×0.920—×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷1.052×0.700—×0.9825.03%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .454 → .345; ISO .261 → .186; BABIP .583 → .494. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 401 PAwOBA .352 → .279 (−73)K% 35.4% → 42.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.41%÷0.993×1.200——42.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.47%÷1.089×0.690—×1.0036.65%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.940—×1.0031.18%
Singles /BIP17.31%÷0.970×0.930×0.950×1.00315.82%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷0.995×0.830×0.950×1.0034.59%
Triples /BIP1.44%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×1.0031.48%
Home runs /BIP13.46%÷0.985×0.840—×1.00311.52%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .279; ISO .291 → .238; BABIP .279 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColumbus Clippers · 477 PAwOBA .314 → .260 (−54)K% 30.0% → 35.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.98%÷1.017×1.200——35.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.50%÷0.972×0.690—×1.0184.70%
HBP% /PA0.84%—×0.940—×1.0180.80%
Singles /BIP18.97%÷0.974×0.930×0.976×1.01817.99%
Doubles /BIP8.28%÷0.958×0.830×0.976×1.0187.12%
Triples /BIP1.03%÷0.900×0.970×0.976×1.0181.11%
Home runs /BIP6.90%÷1.135×0.840—×1.0185.20%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .314 → .260; ISO .208 → .162; BABIP .296 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAkron RubberDucks · 381 PAwOBA .387 → .294 (−93)K% 30.4% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.45%÷0.990×1.220——37.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.55%÷1.052×0.700—×0.9987.67%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.850—×0.9980.67%
Singles /BIP17.51%÷0.978×0.970×0.958×0.99816.62%
Doubles /BIP7.83%÷1.072×0.860×0.958×0.9986.01%
Triples /BIP2.30%÷1.150×0.950×0.958×0.9981.82%
Home runs /BIP11.98%÷1.008×0.780—×0.9989.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .387 → .294; ISO .315 → .232; BABIP .312 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).