Trayce Thompson

CF Worcester Red Sox

Age 36 R/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	32	MLBCWS	179	.163/.285/.294	6	2	69	-0.3
2024	33	AAACHC	432	.233/.319/.471	23	9	51	—	.173/.237/.323
2025	34	AAABOS	388	.226/.314/.405	13	11	36	—	.162/.223/.286
2026	35	No MLB games played
2027PROJ14% MLB	36	MLBBOS	30	.207/.268/.349	1	1	69	-0.0
2028PROJ5% MLB	37	MLBBOS	7	.195/.254/.322	0	0	57	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Barrel%90

xwOBA81

Avg EV79

Bat Spd63

Speed46

CompsChad Mottola (age 35) · Jason Wood (age 36) · Bobby Wilson (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .268 / .349

PA30

HR1

K%33

BB%7

BABIP281

ISO143

MLB%14%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT

xAVG

120.220

POWER

Barrel%

9016.1

Avg EV

7991.1

Bat Spd

6372.8

SPEED

Sprint

4627.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.3M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	18	ROK	Great Falls Voyagers	—	118	106	21	3	1	0	7	41	3	3	0	198	267	245	513	47	318	35	6	237	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	236	210	48	13	3	8	21	69	2	6	4	229	303	433	737	205	296	29	9	322	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	597	519	125	36	2	24	60	172	10	8	4	241	331	457	788	216	309	29	10	344	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	20	18	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	167	250	278	528	111	250	30	10	243	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	58	50	14	1	1	3	8	16	0	2	0	280	379	520	899	240	355	28	14	394	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	510	449	114	28	5	22	45	144	6	18	3	254	330	486	816	232	316	28	9	351	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	67	48	10	0	0	2	17	17	1	2	3	208	424	333	758	125	276	25	25	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	590	507	116	23	5	15	60	139	13	25	8	229	326	383	709	154	280	24	10	316	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	25	22	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	1	45	125	45	170		62	28	8	92	-52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	595	518	123	34	6	16	65	151	4	20	5	237	327	419	746	181	301	25	11	329	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	135	122	36	8	3	5	13	26	0	1	0	295	363	533	896	238	341	19	10	390	149	+8	+0	+1	-6	+3	0.6
2015	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	417	388	101	23	4	13	23	79	2	11	5	260	305	441	746	180	295	19	6	326	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	236	53	11	0	13	26	66	0	5	1	225	302	436	738	212	255	25	10	327	109	+3	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.6
2017	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	55	49	6	2	1	1	6	23	0	0	0	122	218	265	483	143	200	42	11	223	35	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2017	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	369	339	72	12	6	9	26	93	1	3	5	212	270	363	633	150	264	25	7	280	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	137	128	15	3	0	3	7	50	0	3	1	117	163	211	374	94	158	36	5	169	-4	-17	+0	-2	-3	+3	-1.9
2018	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	176	160	34	12	0	4	15	57	0	3	1	212	280	362	643	150	300	32	9	287	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	371	334	73	10	3	24	33	134	3	8	3	219	295	482	777	263	277	36	9	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	35	28	7	1	0	4	7	11	0	2	0	250	400	714	1.114	464	231	31	20	466	207	+4	+0	-1	-4	+1	0.0
2021	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	378	323	76	15	1	21	47	120	7	3	1	235	345	483	828	248	301	32	12	365	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	255	219	56	14	1	13	32	93	2	4	1	256	356	507	863	251	374	36	13	376	144	+13	+0	+1	-5	+6	1.6
2022	31	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	170	154	47	11	1	17	14	48	1	2	1	305	367	721	1.088	416	333	28	8	458	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	179	153	25	2	0	6	24	77	2	2	0	163	285	294	579	131	271	43	13	272	69	-7	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
2023	32	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	17	16	6	4	0	1	0	6	1	0	0	375	412	812	1.224	438	556	35	0	521	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	432	378	88	19	1	23	46	120	2	9	2	233	319	471	790	238	270	28	11	343	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	341	77	20	1	13	42	128	2	11	1	226	314	405	719	179	315	33	11	320	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1058	935	198	41	5	45	115	346	4	17	3	212	301	411	711	199	280	33	11	316	100	+0	+2	-7	-15	+23	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	118	109	15	2	1	0	4	59	3	3	0	138	190	174	364	37	262	50	3	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	236	218	37	10	2	6	14	95	2	6	4	170	226	317	543	147	259	40	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	597	540	101	29	2	19	39	221	10	8	4	187	255	354	608	167	261	37	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	20	19	3	2	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	158	200	263	463	105	217	35	5	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	58	52	13	1	1	3	6	19	0	2	0	250	328	481	808	231	348	33	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	510	466	89	21	3	19	28	210	6	18	3	191	246	371	617	180	277	41	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	590	525	99	18	4	12	42	183	13	25	8	189	266	307	572	118	247	31	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	595	540	107	32	5	13	43	193	4	20	5	198	262	348	610	150	271	32	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	135	122	36	8	3	5	13	26	0	1	0	295	363	533	896	238	341	19	10	388	149	+8	+0	+1	-6	+3	0.6
2015	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	417	395	91	20	3	9	16	98	2	11	5	230	264	365	628	134	279	24	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	236	53	12	0	12	26	66	0	5	1	225	302	428	729	203	255	25	10	329	109	+3	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.6
2017	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	55	50	6	2	1	1	5	23	0	0	0	120	200	260	460	140	200	42	9	220	35	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2017	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	369	347	58	9	4	7	18	120	1	3	5	167	210	277	487	110	223	33	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	137	129	15	3	0	3	6	50	0	3	1	116	156	209	365	93	158	36	4	163	-4	-17	+0	-2	-3	+3	-1.9
2018	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	176	165	25	8	0	2	10	69	0	3	1	152	200	236	436	85	239	39	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	371	347	59	7	3	19	20	162	3	8	3	170	222	372	593	202	240	44	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	35	28	7	1	0	4	7	11	0	2	0	250	400	714	1.114	464	231	31	20	474	207	+4	+0	-1	-4	+1	0.0
2021	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	378	339	59	12	1	13	31	139	7	3	1	174	257	330	588	156	244	37	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	255	219	56	15	1	12	32	93	2	4	1	256	356	498	853	242	374	36	13	381	144	+13	+0	+1	-5	+6	1.6
2022	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	170	160	35	8	1	11	8	57	1	2	1	219	260	487	748	269	251	34	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	179	153	25	2	0	6	24	77	2	2	0	163	285	294	579	131	271	43	13	270	69	-7	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
2023	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	17	16	5	3	0	1	0	7	1	0	0	312	353	688	1.040	375	443	41	0	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	432	393	68	15	1	14	31	144	2	9	2	173	237	323	560	150	217	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	357	58	15	1	9	26	152	2	11	1	162	223	286	509	123	239	39	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	118	109	15	2	1	0	4	59	3	3	0	138	190	174	364	37	294	50	3	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	—	118	106	21	3	1	0	7	41	3	3	0	198	267	245	513	47	318	35	6	237	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	236	218	37	10	2	6	14	95	2	6	4	170	226	317	543	147	261	40	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	236	210	48	13	3	8	21	69	2	6	4	229	303	433	737	205	296	29	9	322	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	597	540	101	29	2	19	39	221	10	8	4	187	255	354	608	167	270	37	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	597	519	125	36	2	24	60	172	10	8	4	241	331	457	788	216	309	29	10	344	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	655	598	117	26	5	24	39	264	7	23	6	196	253	376	629	181	292	40	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	655	565	141	31	6	27	72	183	7	23	6	250	342	469	811	219	314	28	11	352	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	615	547	103	19	4	13	44	191	13	25	9	188	265	309	574	121	256	31	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	615	529	117	23	5	15	62	146	13	25	9	221	318	369	687	147	271	24	10	307	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	595	540	107	32	5	13	43	193	4	20	5	198	262	348	610	150	277	32	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	595	518	123	34	6	16	65	151	4	20	5	237	327	419	746	181	301	25	11	329	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	552	517	125	27	6	13	29	124	2	12	5	242	285	393	677	151	293	22	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	552	510	137	31	7	18	36	105	2	12	5	269	319	463	782	194	306	19	7	341	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	236	53	12	0	12	26	66	0	5	1	225	302	428	729	203	259	25	10	329	109	+3	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.6
2016	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	236	53	11	0	13	26	66	0	5	1	225	302	436	738	212	255	25	10	327	109	+3	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.6
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	397	64	11	5	8	23	143	1	3	5	161	209	275	484	113	226	34	5	210	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	424	388	78	14	7	10	32	116	1	3	5	201	264	351	614	149	258	27	8	273	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	313	294	40	11	0	5	16	119	0	6	2	136	181	224	405	88	203	38	5	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	313	288	49	15	0	7	22	107	0	6	2	170	229	295	524	125	239	34	7	235	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	371	347	59	7	3	19	20	162	3	8	3	170	222	372	593	202	240	44	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	371	334	73	10	3	24	33	134	3	8	3	219	295	482	777	263	277	36	9	338	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	367	66	13	1	17	38	150	7	5	1	180	269	360	629	180	244	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	413	351	83	16	1	25	54	131	7	5	1	236	350	501	851	265	296	32	13	373	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	425	379	91	23	2	23	40	150	3	6	2	240	318	493	811	253	325	35	9	354	126	+13	+0	+1	-5	+9	1.9
2022	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	425	373	103	25	2	30	46	141	3	6	2	276	360	595	955	319	356	33	11	409	126	+13	+0	+1	-5	+9	1.9
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	196	169	29	5	0	6	24	84	3	2	0	172	286	308	593	136	291	43	12	277	74	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
2023	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	196	169	31	6	0	7	24	83	3	2	0	183	296	343	639	160	304	42	12	293	74	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
2024	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	432	393	68	15	1	14	31	144	2	9	2	173	237	323	560	150	224	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	432	378	88	19	1	23	46	120	2	9	2	233	319	471	790	238	270	28	11	343	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	357	58	15	1	9	26	152	2	11	1	162	223	286	509	123	246	39	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	341	77	20	1	13	42	128	2	11	1	226	314	405	719	179	315	33	11	320	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	—	118	110	15	2	1	0	4	59	3	3	0	136	190	173	362	36	262	50	3	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	236	218	37	10	2	6	14	95	2	6	4	170	226	317	543	147	259	40	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	597	543	101	29	2	19	39	221	10	8	4	186	255	352	606	166	261	37	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	655	604	117	26	5	24	39	264	7	23	6	194	253	373	626	179	282	40	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	615	553	103	19	4	13	44	191	13	25	9	186	265	306	571	119	247	31	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	595	543	107	32	5	13	43	193	4	20	5	197	262	346	609	149	271	32	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	552	516	125	27	6	13	29	124	2	12	5	242	285	393	678	151	294	22	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	234	53	12	0	12	26	66	0	5	1	226	302	432	733	205	255	25	10	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	424	397	64	11	5	8	23	143	1	3	5	161	209	275	484	113	220	34	5	210	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	313	294	40	11	0	5	16	119	0	6	2	136	181	224	405	88	204	38	5	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	371	345	59	7	3	19	20	162	3	8	3	171	222	374	596	203	240	44	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	66	13	1	17	38	150	7	5	1	181	269	362	631	181	243	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	425	379	91	23	2	23	40	150	3	6	2	240	318	493	811	253	325	35	9	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	196	167	29	5	0	6	24	84	3	2	0	174	286	311	597	138	286	43	12	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	432	396	68	15	1	14	31	144	2	9	2	172	237	321	558	149	217	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	357	58	15	1	9	26	152	2	11	1	162	223	286	509	123	239	39	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	432	396	68	15	1	14	31	144	2	9	2	172	237	321	558	149	217	33	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	388	357	58	15	1	9	26	152	2	11	1	162	223	286	509	123	239	39	7	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	BOS	14%	323	295	60	13	1	9	23	102	2	7	1	201	263	341	603	140	271	32	7	270	69	-12	+1	-0	+1	+7	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	BOS	14%	30	28	5	1	0	1	2	10	0	1	0	207	268	349	618	142	281	33	7	275	69	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	BOS	5%	149	137	26	5	1	4	10	48	1	1	0	189	249	314	563	125	259	32	7	253	57	-8	+0	-7	+1	+3	-1.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	BOS	5%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	195	254	322	577	128	268	29	0	259	57	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1065	942	199	41	5	45	115	348	4	17	3	211	300	409	708	197	279	33	11	316	63	-0	+2	-7	-15	+23	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	121	25	3	27	70	212	2	10	2	210	298	405	704	195	278	33	11	316	63	-0	+1	-4	-9	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6953	6339	1198	270	40	211	481	2432	64	157	51	189	253	344	597	155	263	35	7	261	63	-15	+3	-14	-14	+31	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	112	25	4	20	45	227	6	15	5	189	253	346	599	157	262	35	7	261	63	-7	+1	-6	-6	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 388 PAwOBA .313 → .221 (−92)K% 33.0% → 39.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.99%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	39.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.57%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.57%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.46%
Singles /BIP	20.19%	÷1.060	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	15.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.39%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	7.03%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	6.10%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .221; ISO .179 → .123; BABIP .315 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 432 PAwOBA .337 → .244 (−94)K% 27.8% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	33.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.42%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.14%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.41%
Singles /BIP	17.44%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.969	×0.942	14.90%
Doubles /BIP	7.36%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.969	×0.942	5.80%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.969	×0.942	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	8.91%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.942	5.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .337 → .244; ISO .238 → .154; BABIP .270 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 17 PAwOBA .505 → .347 (−158)K% 35.3% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	43.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.952	0.00%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	5.26%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.967	×0.930	—	×0.952	9.16%
Doubles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.971	×0.830	—	×0.952	32.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.152	×0.700	—	×0.952	5.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .505 → .347; ISO .438 → .273; BABIP .556 → .443. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 170 PAwOBA .444 → .314 (−130)K% 28.2% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.24%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	33.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.06%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.86%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.53%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷1.015	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	14.22%
Doubles /BIP	10.38%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	7.76%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	16.04%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.962	10.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .444 → .314; ISO .416 → .275; BABIP .333 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 378 PAwOBA .356 → .260 (−96)K% 31.7% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.75%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	36.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.43%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.69%
Singles /BIP	19.21%	÷1.039	×0.930	×0.982	×0.972	16.41%
Doubles /BIP	7.39%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.982	×0.972	6.08%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷0.988	×0.920	×0.982	×0.972	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	10.34%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.51%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .356 → .260; ISO .248 → .165; BABIP .301 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 371 PAwOBA .328 → .255 (−74)K% 36.1% → 43.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.12%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	43.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.63%	÷1.089	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.42%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.75%
Singles /BIP	18.00%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	16.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	3.93%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	12.00%	÷0.985	×0.840	—	×0.992	10.16%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .255; ISO .263 → .209; BABIP .277 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 176 PAwOBA .281 → .199 (−82)K% 32.4% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.39%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	39.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.52%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.48%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	15.03%
Doubles /BIP	11.65%	÷1.077	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	8.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.88%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×1.003	2.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .281 → .199; ISO .150 → .097; BABIP .300 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 369 PAwOBA .273 → .209 (−64)K% 25.2% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.20%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.78%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×1.018	4.81%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.27%
Singles /BIP	18.29%	÷0.978	×0.900	×0.958	×1.018	16.43%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷1.038	×0.810	×0.958	×1.018	3.71%
Triples /BIP	2.44%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.958	×1.018	1.68%
Home runs /BIP	3.66%	÷0.989	×0.780	—	×1.018	2.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .273 → .209; ISO .150 → .108; BABIP .264 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rick Ankiel'99-'13 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,115 PA	3.2	2,115	76	21	236*	296*	423*	+0	-2	4.6	4.9
/162	664	24	7	+0.1	-0.6	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Laynce Nixlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,038 PA	3.1	2,038	69	9	243	289	422	-13	+8	4.3	4.9
/162	664	22	3	-4.1	+2.5	1.4	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.6	1,060	42	16	212	295	403	+4	-8	2.8	2.9
/162	664	26	10	+2.2	-5.3	1.8	pk7: 3
#3Buddy Bradford'66-'76 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,831 PA	2.8	1,831	52	36	231*	315*	408*	-9	-4	2.3	2.8
/162	664	19	13	-3.2	-1.6	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Dylan Carlsonlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,987 PA	3.0	1,987	43	16	233	312	372	-9	-22	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	5	-3.0	-7.4	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trayce Thompson (OGILVIE)	36	—	—	—	—	199/261/338	139	271	6	4	32%	7%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chad Mottola 2007 · MLB	35	40→41	49→50	47→45	39	211/248/355	144	254	17	7	25%	4%	67	-1.1	220/262/368	148	262	17	9	23%	5%	75	-0.5	213/253/365	152	243	18	7	21%	4%	69	-0.7
✕Jason Wood 2006 · AAA	36	46	49→45	46→40	46	237/294/378	140	274	18	7	21%	6%	89	+0.5	228/276/336	108	284	12	4	23%	6%	72	-0.7	220/267/305	85	278	8	2	23%	5%	61	-0.9
✕Bobby Wilson 2019 · MLB	36	37→47	45→50	46→40	43	194/247/310	116	242	13	3	26%	6%	56	-1.9	204/261/333	129	257	15	6	26%	7%	67	-1.1	161/213/276	115	189	18	0	27%	6%	33	-0.9
✕Mike Rivera 2012 · MLB	35	39	43→55	44→45	43	195/264/303	108	264	10	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/317	106	285	11	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	194/245/256	62	262	7	0	28%	4%	40	-0.8
✕Matt Carson 2015 · MLB	34	43→50	45→60	51→50	39	215/264/334	119	286	14	14	30%	5%	68	-1.0	207/268/322	115	270	12	13	27%	6%	68	-1.0	161/232/243	82	201	8	11	24%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Vinny Rottino 2016 · AAA	36	44→54	42→45	49→55	45	218/276/317	99	276	10	5	24%	7%	68	-1.0	209/276/303	94	272	9	6	25%	7%	65	-1.2	173/252/229	57	227	6	0	25%	8%	38	-1.4
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2019 · AAA	37	42	43→45	48→40	40	210/261/320	110	280	11	7	29%	5%	63	-1.3	204/254/326	122	300	14	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	156/198/251	95	230	14	3	38%	4%	21	-1.4
✕Scott McClain 2007 · MLB	35	37→42	53→55	43→40	43	204/253/369	165	232	22	6	24%	6%	72	-0.7	215/275/386	171	248	23	5	23%	7%	84	+0.2	213/276/389	176	239	25	3	23%	8%	84	+0.2
✕Mike Coolbaugh 2006 · AAA	34	41→39	52→55	53→50	41	218/266/379	160	262	21	10	26%	6%	79	-0.2	211/277/349	138	265	16	9	26%	7%	77	-0.3	171/258/278	106	213	13	4	26%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Jonathan Aceves 2014 · AAA	36	41	47→50	44→30	44	210/261/340	131	253	15	5	24%	6%	68	-1.0	220/279/335	115	266	13	3	22%	6%	74	-0.6	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Cody Ransom 2011 · MLB	35	40→39	51→55	48→50	43	212/270/375	162	264	19	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	216/286/399	183	290	23	8	32%	8%	92	+0.7	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Pedro Swann 2007 · AAA	36	48→44	48→50	55→45	42	241/292/388	147	295	14	12	23%	5%	91	+0.6	227/273/348	121	289	12	10	25%	5%	74	-0.5	209/248/310	102	267	10	6	25%	4%	55	-1.1
✕Erik Kratz 2017 · MLB	37	36→44	44→60	46→45	41	187/236/303	116	231	13	4	25%	5%	51	-2.3	212/267/341	129	252	15	6	22%	5%	71	-0.8	213/269/346	133	243	17	4	20%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Emmanuel Valdez 2015 · AAA	36	42→51	51→50	45→40	47	214/296/377	163	291	20	5	32%	9%	91	+0.6	207/282/317	110	291	12	7	31%	8%	71	-0.8	166/238/203	37	244	5	2	32%	7%	26	-0.9
✕Brian Buchanan 2009 · AAA	36	38→48	46→60	47→45	39	200/247/321	122	254	14	8	27%	5%	59	-1.7	214/259/358	144	256	17	9	24%	5%	72	-0.7	183/212/345	162	187	23	4	19%	4%	47	-0.5
✕Cory Aldridge 2014 · AAA	35	37→47	51→55	45	36	194/249/342	148	306	21	9	42%	7%	65	-1.2	239/302/400	161	312	22	5	29%	8%	98	+1.2	250/319/434	185	295	29	1	25%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Humberto Cota 2015 · AAA	36	41	45→50	47→30	44	210/269/324	114	261	14	5	26%	6%	68	-1.0	203/271/321	118	264	14	4	27%	8%	68	-1.0	184/259/289	106	240	13	0	28%	9%	56	-0.7
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	34	40→50	44→50	47→50	41	200/255/309	109	280	12	6	32%	7%	59	-1.7	236/290/379	143	302	17	6	27%	7%	88	+0.4	239/293/382	143	298	19	3	26%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Andy Tracy 2010 · AAA	36	41→45	53→55	48→45	48	218/287/387	169	254	22	6	24%	8%	89	+0.5	222/293/398	176	276	22	6	27%	9%	94	+0.9	216/291/396	180	268	22	4	28%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	37	46→42	46→50	47→40	37	226/268/353	127	315	13	5	32%	5%	73	-0.6	207/261/323	116	322	12	6	37%	6%	64	-1.3	178/232/277	99	285	11	0	40%	6%	39	-1.9

Trayce Thompson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps