Dylan Carlson — OGILVIE

Dylan CarlsonLF Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 S/L 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 5.390 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION219 act + 146 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 6870vR 74

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .310 / .385

PA146

HR4

K%24

BB%9

BABIP283

ISO154

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

4611.4%

xwOBA

160.269

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

2186.9

Bat Spd

1065.2

EYE60

Chase%

8125.7%

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 506 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

188

318

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

263

270

—

ISO

078

113

▶▶R

BABIP

273

261

◀L

24.5%

26.1%

◀L

BB%

8.5%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.390 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$-0.2M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	201	189	32	8	2	2	10	75	1	4	2	169	215	265	480	95	265	37	5	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	201	183	46	13	3	3	16	52	1	4	2	251	315	404	719	153	333	26	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	451	398	77	15	1	6	37	144	9	6	6	193	277	281	558	88	283	32	8	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	451	383	92	18	1	7	52	116	9	6	6	240	345	347	692	107	323	26	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	2 teams	—	498	445	98	23	3	13	40	116	7	8	3	220	295	373	668	153	265	23	8	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	2 teams	—	498	423	104	22	3	11	62	88	7	8	3	246	352	390	742	144	283	18	12	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	562	507	119	21	6	19	40	154	8	20	8	235	301	412	713	178	293	27	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	562	489	143	28	8	26	58	116	8	20	8	292	377	542	918	249	331	21	10	396	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	119	110	22	7	1	3	8	35	0	1	1	200	254	364	618	164	260	29	7	270	65	-5	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.1
2020	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	119	110	22	7	1	3	8	35	0	1	1	200	254	364	618	164	260	29	7	272	66	-5	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	619	542	144	31	4	18	57	152	11	2	1	266	348	437	785	172	332	25	9	340	119	+13	+0	-4	-7	+18	2.0
2021	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	619	542	144	31	4	18	57	152	11	2	1	266	348	437	785	172	332	25	9	346	123	+16	+0	-4	-7	+18	2.3
2022	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	488	432	102	30	4	8	45	94	7	5	2	236	318	380	698	144	281	19	9	308	94	-3	+0	+1	+2	+14	1.4
2022	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	488	432	102	30	4	8	45	94	7	5	2	236	318	380	698	144	281	19	9	312	97	-2	+0	+1	+2	+14	1.5
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	255	219	48	8	1	5	26	49	7	3	0	219	321	333	655	114	256	19	10	297	85	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	255	219	48	8	1	5	26	49	7	3	0	219	321	333	655	114	256	19	10	299	87	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	280	247	50	7	0	4	24	78	6	2	1	202	289	279	568	77	274	28	9	263	60	-13	+0	-8	-3	+8	-1.6
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	280	246	52	7	0	4	25	77	6	2	1	211	300	289	588	77	286	28	9	272	67	-11	+0	-8	-3	+8	-1.4
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	367	328	73	12	1	9	35	86	2	7	3	223	301	348	649	125	272	23	10	294	83	-7	+0	-3	-4	+10	-0.3
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	367	319	74	13	1	10	44	79	2	7	3	232	329	373	702	141	276	22	12	318	101	+0	+0	-3	-4	+10	0.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	PHI	—	219	196	31	4	0	7	17	53	4	1	0	158	240	286	525	128	174	24	8	236	39	-15	+0	-0	-2	+6	-1.2
YTD	27	AAA	PHI	—	219	187	34	5	0	8	26	44	4	1	0	182	295	337	632	155	190	20	12	288	79	-5	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.2
ROS	27	AAA	PHI	10%	146	130	30	6	1	4	13	35	2	2	0	231	310	385	695	154	277	24	9	303	90	-2	+0	-0	-2	+4	0.1
ROS	27	MLB	PHI	10%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	279	27	7	294	84	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	27	AAA	PHI	—	234	210	34	5	0	7	18	57	4	1	0	162	241	286	527	124	182	24	8	239	41	-15	+0	-0	-3	+7	-1.2
TOT	27	AAA	PHI	—	365	326	61	10	1	11	30	88	6	3	0	187	268	325	593	138	217	24	8	263	59	-17	+1	-1	-4	+10	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	PHI	100%	370	329	77	17	2	9	33	89	5	4	1	234	313	380	693	146	287	24	9	308	94	-3	+0	-1	-4	+10	0.3
2028	29	MLB	PHI	100%	373	332	77	17	2	9	33	91	5	4	1	232	311	377	687	145	286	24	9	306	92	-3	+0	-2	-4	+11	0.2
2027	28	MLB	PHI	100%	370	329	77	17	2	9	33	89	5	4	1	234	313	380	693	146	289	24	9	300	88	-5	+0	-1	-4	+10	0.0
2028	29	MLB	PHI	100%	373	332	77	17	2	9	33	91	5	4	1	232	311	377	687	145	288	24	9	298	86	-6	+0	-2	-4	+11	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2745	2430	566	127	15	61	246	643	42	24	10	233	314	373	687	140	289	23	9	305	92	-25	+1	-19	-19	+78	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	134	30	4	14	58	152	10	6	2	233	314	372	686	139	289	23	9	305	92	-6	+0	-5	-4	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	4729	4208	949	202	28	109	401	1198	70	68	29	226	303	365	668	139	285	25	8	296	84	-84	+2	-19	-38	+134	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	131	28	4	15	55	165	10	9	4	227	305	367	672	140	287	25	8	296	84	-11	+0	-3	-5	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	201	183	46	13	3	3	16	52	1	4	2	251	315	404	719	153	333	26	8	319	102	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.6
2017	18	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	451	383	92	18	1	7	52	116	9	6	6	240	345	347	692	107	323	26	12	315	99	-1	-1	—	—	+13	1.1
2018	19	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	441	376	93	19	3	9	52	78	7	6	3	247	349	386	735	138	286	18	12	330	111	+5	+0	—	—	+12	1.8
2018	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	57	47	11	3	0	2	10	10	0	2	0	234	368	426	794	191	257	18	18	358	132	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2019	20	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	79	72	26	4	2	5	6	18	1	2	1	361	418	681	1.098	319	429	23	8	472	219	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.3
2019	20	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	483	417	117	24	6	21	52	98	7	18	7	281	370	518	888	237	315	20	11	384	152	+28	+1	—	—	+14	4.4
2020	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	119	110	22	7	1	3	8	35	0	1	1	200	254	364	618	164	260	29	7	272	66	-5	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	619	542	144	31	4	18	57	152	11	2	1	266	348	437	785	172	332	25	9	346	123	+16	+0	-4	-7	+18	2.3
2022	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	488	432	102	30	4	8	45	94	7	5	2	236	318	380	698	144	281	19	9	312	97	-2	+0	+1	+2	+14	1.5
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	255	219	48	8	1	5	26	49	7	3	0	219	321	333	655	114	256	19	10	299	87	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2024	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	265	235	49	7	0	3	22	75	5	2	1	209	290	277	567	68	287	28	8	262	59	-12	+0	-8	-3	+8	-1.6
2024	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	15	11	3	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	273	467	545	1.012	273	250	13	20	448	201	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	241	217	44	9	1	6	21	54	2	3	3	203	279	336	616	134	241	22	9	278	71	-8	-1	-3	-4	+7	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	126	102	30	4	0	4	23	25	0	4	0	294	424	451	875	157	351	20	18	392	158	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1987	1755	409	92	11	43	179	459	32	16	8	233	315	372	687	138	288	23	9	308	94	-14	+0	-16	-10	+56	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	2,765	62	24	233	311	373	-30	-25	2.4	2.8
	/162	664	15	6	233	311	373	-7.1	-6.1	0.6	pk7: 3
#2Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#3Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	8	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	/162	664	26	2	237	329	420	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dylan Carlson (OGILVIE)	27	40	40	50	60	187/268/325	138	217	11	3	24%	8%	59	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Alvarez 2015 · AAA	27	46	43→45	47→45	52	224/295/338	114	269	9	9	20%	9%	78	+0.2	234/308/328	94	289	6	8	20%	8%	80	+0.4	234/309/309	75	294	3	6	20%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Chris Snelling 2009 · MLB	27	45→39	40→45	46→40	52	215/315/306	91	280	8	7	24%	10%	79	+0.3	234/311/352	118	281	11	6	19%	9%	89	+0.9	239/319/360	121	281	9	0	17%	9%	92	+0.6
✕Brandon Boggs 2010 · MLB	27	44→48	46→55	50	49	216/300/351	135	302	13	10	31%	10%	84	+0.6	210/296/336	126	293	12	7	30%	10%	79	+0.3	202/290/327	126	278	11	5	29%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	43→42	47→50	48→45	47	216/290/357	141	287	13	7	29%	8%	81	+0.4	218/307/369	151	274	18	5	26%	10%	92	+1.2	208/307/357	149	255	19	3	25%	11%	86	+0.4
✕Skye Bolt 2021 · AAA	27	42→39	47→50	49→50	42	208/271/344	135	299	14	12	34%	8%	69	-0.4	235/297/385	150	308	17	13	28%	7%	91	+1.1	238/304/382	144	312	16	12	28%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Taylor Walls 2023 · MLB	27	39→49	45	49→60	53	196/288/318	122	254	12	14	27%	11%	71	-0.3	200/289/318	118	261	11	26	26%	11%	71	-0.3	197/285/305	108	256	9	33	25%	11%	64	-0.4
✕Danny Muno 2016 · MLB	27	47→53	42→45	43→50	49	227/302/329	102	289	10	11	24%	9%	79	+0.3	221/298/320	99	305	8	10	27%	9%	75	-0.0	212/298/309	96	304	6	8	29%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Nick Franklin 2018 · MLB	27	43→50	47→50	53→50	45	218/275/352	135	264	14	14	24%	7%	73	-0.1	213/284/332	119	268	11	12	24%	8%	72	-0.2	170/251/269	99	226	8	8	27%	9%	41	-1.3
✕Dan Nelson 2011 · AAA	27	48→51	44→45	45→50	48	235/294/354	120	285	11	10	22%	7%	82	+0.5	242/297/349	107	295	9	7	20%	7%	81	+0.4	254/308/350	96	303	7	2	18%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Jeff Corsaletti 2010 · AAA	27	47→51	42→45	49→50	53	227/301/338	111	269	9	10	19%	9%	80	+0.4	227/301/330	103	275	9	10	20%	9%	78	+0.2	235/322/316	82	286	8	9	19%	11%	81	+0.2
✕Augie Ojeda 2002 · MLB	27	45	42→40	48→45	54	218/290/327	109	237	10	6	13%	8%	73	-0.1	223/294/328	105	240	10	8	12%	8%	75	-0.0	249/339/324	75	277	1	4	10%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Alfredo Amezaga 2005 · MLB	27	41→51	45→40	47→55	45	206/266/327	121	242	13	13	22%	6%	63	-0.8	257/316/352	95	297	6	23	15%	7%	89	+1.0	283/330/368	85	332	6	6	16%	6%	98	+0.8
✕Matt Tuiasosopo 2013 · MLB	27	43→50	46→45	45	45	214/287/338	124	294	14	7	31%	9%	75	-0.0	221/300/348	127	314	15	4	32%	9%	83	+0.6	207/295/327	121	301	14	2	33%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2011 · AAA	27	49	42→45	44→45	49	238/302/342	104	287	9	6	20%	8%	82	+0.5	226/297/323	97	286	9	7	23%	7%	76	+0.0	215/297/307	92	281	9	5	25%	8%	69	-0.1
✕Mel Rojas Jr. 2017 · AAA	27	46→50	43→45	50	43	226/274/340	114	289	10	12	25%	6%	69	-0.4	227/274/354	127	292	13	10	26%	6%	73	-0.1	228/273/356	127	292	14	4	26%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Cooper Hummel 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	49→50	48→55	53	226/316/384	158	294	16	10	27%	11%	99	+1.7	225/326/370	145	307	12	18	28%	12%	100	+1.7	222/332/370	148	300	12	19	27%	12%	99	+1.1
✕Nate Spears 2012 · AAA	27	43→53	45	53→50	50	216/290/340	124	255	12	12	20%	8%	76	+0.1	211/279/319	108	276	10	10	25%	8%	66	-0.6	206/272/302	96	276	8	8	27%	8%	56	-0.6
●Alex Call 2022 · AAA	27	43→49	48→50	48→50	48	222/287/364	142	260	17	14	22%	8%	82	+0.5	229/323/378	149	265	16	15	19%	11%	101	+1.8	221/327/368	147	257	16	17	20%	12%	99	+1.3
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2022 · AAA	26	43→48	44→50	46→55	42	215/270/332	117	280	11	11	27%	6%	66	-0.6	225/299/355	130	294	14	22	27%	9%	84	+0.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5