Dylan Carlson

LF Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 28 S/L 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 5.483 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAArb-3FA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425MLBTB265.209/.290/.2773263-1.7
202526AAABAL126.294/.424/.45144110—.273/.360/.391
202526MLBBAL241.203/.279/.3366372-1.1
202627AAAPHI197.180/.297/.3176136—.149/.236/.240
2027PROJ10% MLB28MLBPHI20.213/.295/.3330077-0.0
2028PROJ29MLBPHI220.210/.292/.3255274-0.6
Last 3 seasons WAR -2.8  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service5.483First FA2028
2027Arb-3$0.6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed52
Barrel%21
Avg EV21
xwOBA16
Bat Spd10
CompsBrett Carroll (age 28) · Chris Magruder (age 28) · Sergio Alcántara (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 7777vR 77
AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .295 / .333
PA20
HR0
K%25
BB%10
BABIP262
ISO56
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.62728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
100.204
POWER40
Barrel%
214.5
Avg EV
2186.9
Bat Spd
1065.2
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
5227.6
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 506 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
188
318
—
wRC+
64
69
▶R
wOBA
263
270
—
ISO
078
113
▶▶R
BABIP
273
261
◀L
K%
24.5%
26.1%
◀L
BB%
8.5%
8.5%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2020
Service   5.483 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $0.0M $-0.1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201617 ROKGCL Cardinals — 201183 461333 16521 42 251315404719 153333 268 319 34 — — — — — —
201718 APeoria Chiefs — 451383 921817 521169 66 240345347692 107323 2612 315 59 — — — — — —
201819 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 441376 931939 52787 63 247349386735 138286 1812 330 86 — — — — — —
201819 APeoria Chiefs — 5747 11302 10100 20 234368426794 191257 1818 358 80 — — — — — —
201920 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 7972 26425 6181 21 3614186811.098 319429 238 472 143 — — — — — —
201920 AASpringfield Cardinals — 483417 11724621 52987 187 281370518888 237315 2011 384 98 — — — — — —
202021 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 119110 22713 8350 11 200254364618 164260 297 272 72 -4 -0 -0 +0 +3 -0.2
202122 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 619542 14431418 5715211 21 266348437785 172332 259 346 121 +15 +0 -4 -7 +13 1.8
202223 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 488432 1023048 45947 52 236318380698 144281 199 312 97 -2 +0 +1 +2 +11 1.2
202324 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 255219 48815 26497 30 219321333655 114256 1910 299 91 -3 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.3
202425 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 265235 49703 22755 21 209290277567 68287 288 262 63 -12 +0 -8 -3 +6 -1.7
202425 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 1511 3001 321 00 2734675451.012 273250 1320 448 128 — — — — — —
202526 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 241217 44916 21542 33 203279336616 134241 229 278 72 -8 -1 -3 -4 +5 -1.1
202526 AAANorfolk Tides — 126102 30404 23250 40 294424451875 157351 2018 392 110 — — — — — —
202627 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 197167 30506 24404 10 180297317615 138195 2012 283 36 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 19871755 409921143 17945932 168 233315372687 138288 239 308 95 -13 +0 -16 -10 +43 0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201617 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 201189 33922 10751 42 175220275495 101272 375 218 34 — — — — — —
201718 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 451397 801516 381519 66 202286290576 88292 338 255 59 — — — — — —
201819 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 441391 892039 371077 63 228306363669 136277 248 295 86 — — — — — —
201819 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 5751 11302 6130 20 216298392690 176230 2311 286 80 — — — — — —
201920 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 7974 22324 4241 21 297342554896 257393 305 379 143 — — — — — —
201920 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 483432 10219516 371217 187 236307414721 178277 258 313 98 — — — — — —
202021 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 119110 22713 8350 11 200254364618 164260 297 274 72 -4 -0 -0 +0 +3 -0.2
202122 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 619544 14430419 5515211 21 265344439784 175332 259 347 121 +15 +0 -4 -7 +13 1.8
202223 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 488433 1022949 44947 52 236316383699 148281 199 312 97 -2 +0 +1 +2 +11 1.2
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 255219 48815 26497 30 219321333655 114256 1910 303 91 -3 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.3
202425 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 265235 48703 22755 21 204286272559 68287 288 261 63 -12 +0 -8 -3 +6 -1.7
202425 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 1512 3001 231 00 250400500900 250230 2013 357 128 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 241217 44916 21542 33 203279336616 134241 229 274 72 -8 -1 -3 -4 +5 -1.1
202526 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 126110 30403 15310 40 273360391751 118342 2512 331 110 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 197175 26404 16484 10 149236240476 91173 248 221 36 — — — — — —
201617 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 201189 33922 10751 42 175220275495 101274 375 218 34 — — — — — —
201617 ROK RAWGCL Cardinals — 201183 461333 16521 42 251315404719 153333 268 319 34 — — — — — —
201718 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 451397 801516 381519 66 202286290576 88305 338 255 59 — — — — — —
201718 A RAWPeoria Chiefs — 451383 921817 521169 66 240345347692 107323 2612 315 59 — — — — — —
201819 A+ MLE2 teams — 498442 9822311 431207 83 222301360661 138275 249 294 85 — — — — — —
201819 A+ RAW2 teams — 498423 10422311 62887 83 246352390742 144283 1812 333 85 — — — — — —
201920 AA MLE2 teams — 562505 12422720 421458 208 246314436749 190300 267 322 104 — — — — — —
201920 AA RAW2 teams — 562489 14328826 581168 208 292377542918 249331 2110 396 104 — — — — — —
202021 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 119110 22713 8350 11 200254364618 164260 297 274 72 -4 -0 -0 +0 +3 -0.2
202021 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 119110 22713 8350 11 200254364618 164260 297 272 72 -4 -0 -0 +0 +3 -0.2
202122 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 619544 14430419 5515211 21 265344439784 175328 259 347 121 +15 +0 -4 -7 +13 1.8
202122 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 619542 14431418 5715211 21 266348437785 172332 259 346 121 +15 +0 -4 -7 +13 1.8
202223 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 488433 1022949 44947 52 236316383699 148278 199 312 97 -2 +0 +1 +2 +11 1.2
202223 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 488432 1023048 45947 52 236318380698 144281 199 312 97 -2 +0 +1 +2 +11 1.2
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 255219 48815 26497 30 219321333655 114256 1910 303 91 -3 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.3
202324 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 255219 48815 26497 30 219321333655 114256 1910 299 91 -3 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.3
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 280247 51704 24786 21 206292283576 77280 289 266 66 -11 +0 -8 -3 +6 -1.6
202425 MLB RAW2 teams — 280246 52704 25776 21 211300289588 77286 289 272 66 -11 +0 -8 -3 +6 -1.6
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 367327 731219 36852 73 223304349653 125272 2310 294 85 -7 +0 -3 -4 +8 -0.6
202526 MLB RAW2 teams — 367319 7413110 44792 73 232329373702 141276 2212 318 85 -7 +0 -3 -4 +8 -0.6
202627 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 197175 26404 16484 10 149236240476 91176 248 221 36 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAWLehigh Valley IronPigs — 197167 30506 24404 10 180297317615 138195 2012 283 36 — — — — — —
201617 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 201188 33922 10751 42 176220277497 101272 375 218 34 — — — — — —
201718 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 451401 801516 381519 66 200286287573 87292 338 255 59 — — — — — —
201819 A+ MLE2 teams — 498445 9822311 431207 83 220301357658 137272 249 294 85 — — — — — —
201920 AA MLE2 teams — 562507 12422720 421458 208 245314434747 189293 267 322 104 — — — — — —
202021 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 119110 22713 8350 11 200254364618 164260 297 274 72 — — — — — —
202122 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 619548 14430419 5515211 21 263344436780 173332 259 347 121 — — — — — —
202223 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 488434 1022949 44947 52 235316382699 147281 199 312 97 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 255220 48815 26497 30 218321332653 114256 1910 303 91 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 280248 51704 24786 21 206292282575 77284 289 266 66 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 367326 731219 36852 73 224304350654 126275 2310 294 85 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 197175 26404 16484 10 149236240476 91173 248 221 36 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 MLB MLE2 teams — 280248 51704 24786 21 206292282575 77284 289 266 66 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLE2 teams — 367326 731219 36852 73 224304350654 126275 2310 294 85 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 197175 26404 16484 10 149236240476 91173 248 221 36 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLEPHI 10% 304269 581017 28734 41 212294327621 115262 249 282 77 -8 +0 -1 -3 +7 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXPHI 10% 2018 4100 250 00 213295333628 119262 2510 285 77 -1 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLEPHI 100% 220195 41705 20533 21 209291319610 111260 249 278 74 -7 +0 -2 -2 +5 -0.6
202829 MLB CTXPHI 100% 220195 41705 20533 21 210292325618 115260 249 281 74 -7 +0 -2 -2 +5 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 22071950 450991148 19951235 189 231313367680 136285 239 305 85 -20 +0 -17 -13 +48 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 13229314 5915110 53 230313364677 134284 239 305 85 -6 +0 -5 -4 +14 -0.1
Career— MLE — 44523955 87817824101 380113268 6429 222301356657 134281 259 293 85 -25 +0 -18 -15 +52 -0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 12926415 5516510 94 224302360662 137283 258 293 85 -7 +0 -5 -4 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 197 PAwOBA .277 → .221 (−55)K% 20.3% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.30%÷1.000×1.200——24.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.68%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9927.99%
HBP% /PA2.03%—×0.940—×0.9921.89%
Singles /BIP14.96%÷1.000×0.930×0.997×0.99213.76%
Doubles /BIP3.94%÷1.000×0.830×0.997×0.9923.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.997×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP4.72%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9923.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .277 → .221; ISO .138 → .101; BABIP .195 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 126 PAwOBA .386 → .331 (−55)K% 19.8% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.84%÷0.967×1.200——24.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.25%÷1.063×0.690—×1.00311.89%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.959×0.930×1.036×1.00328.77%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷0.978×0.830×1.036×1.0034.58%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.036×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP5.19%÷0.945×0.700—×1.0033.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .386 → .331; ISO .157 → .127; BABIP .351 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 PAwOBA .437 → .357 (−80)K% 13.3% → 16.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.33%÷0.953×1.200——16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷1.014×0.690—×1.01813.85%
HBP% /PA6.67%—×0.940—×1.0186.38%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.991×0.930—×1.01821.23%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.920×0.830—×1.0180.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷1.020×0.700—×1.0187.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .437 → .357; ISO .273 → .200; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 483 PAwOBA .377 → .313 (−64)K% 20.3% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.29%÷0.985×1.220——25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.14%÷0.965×0.700—×1.0507.73%
HBP% /PA1.45%—×0.870—×1.0501.32%
Singles /BIP20.69%÷0.974×0.920×0.950×1.05019.49%
Doubles /BIP7.52%÷1.070×0.840×0.950×1.0505.89%
Triples /BIP1.88%÷1.108×0.940×0.950×1.0501.59%
Home runs /BIP6.58%÷1.108×0.800—×1.0504.99%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .377 → .313; ISO .237 → .183; BABIP .315 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 79 PAwOBA .458 → .379 (−79)K% 22.8% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.78%÷0.986×1.290——29.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.59%÷1.035×0.710—×1.0505.47%
HBP% /PA1.27%—×0.980—×1.0501.30%
Singles /BIP27.78%÷1.014×0.900—×1.05025.90%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷0.917×0.810—×1.0506.87%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷0.900×0.810—×1.0503.50%
Home runs /BIP9.26%÷0.982×0.780—×1.0507.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .458 → .379; ISO .319 → .258; BABIP .429 → .393. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 441 PAwOBA .323 → .295 (−28)K% 17.7% → 24.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.69%÷1.036×1.420——24.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.045×0.750—×1.0428.31%
HBP% /PA1.59%—×0.930—×1.0421.54%
Singles /BIP20.81%÷1.027×0.920×1.004×1.04219.50%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷0.942×0.960×1.004×1.0426.80%
Triples /BIP1.01%÷0.900×0.810×1.004×1.0420.95%
Home runs /BIP3.02%÷0.852×0.880—×1.0423.25%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 107, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .323 → .295; ISO .138 → .143; BABIP .286 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 APeoria Chiefs · 57 PAwOBA .343 → .286 (−57)K% 17.5% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.54%÷1.030×1.360——23.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.79%÷0.987×0.690—×1.03011.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0300.00%
Singles /BIP16.22%÷1.041×0.920—×1.03014.76%
Doubles /BIP8.11%÷0.968×0.830—×1.0307.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.948×0.910—×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷0.981×0.800—×1.0304.54%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 90, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .343 → .286; ISO .191 → .165; BABIP .257 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 APeoria Chiefs · 451 PAwOBA .308 → .255 (−53)K% 25.7% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.72%÷1.046×1.360——33.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.31%÷0.969×0.690—×1.0458.41%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.780—×1.0451.63%
Singles /BIP24.72%÷1.035×0.920×0.990×1.04522.73%
Doubles /BIP6.74%÷0.992×0.830×0.990×1.0455.84%
Triples /BIP0.37%÷0.983×0.910×0.990×1.0450.36%
Home runs /BIP2.62%÷0.970×0.800—×1.0452.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 109, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .308 → .255; ISO .107 → .089; BABIP .323 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).