Manuel Bobadilla
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 29 | AAAOlmecas de Ta… | 200 | .287/.403/.427 | 4 | 1 | 91 | — | .251/.332/.360 |
| 2014 | 30 | AAASaraperos de … | 111 | .196/.248/.324 | 3 | 0 | 11 | — | .152/.183/.238 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAASaraperos de … | 207 | .249/.340/.353 | 4 | 0 | 54 | — | .212/.284/.291 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 22 | AAA | Tuneros de San Luis | — | 177 | 157 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 272 | 255 | 526 | 57 | 224 | 13 | 8 | 241 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AAA | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 120 | 98 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 347 | 709 | 102 | 310 | 22 | 13 | 319 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AAA | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 262 | 217 | 56 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 381 | 419 | 800 | 161 | 296 | 19 | 15 | 360 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 394 | 335 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 82 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 245 | 351 | 391 | 742 | 146 | 298 | 21 | 12 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 300 | 251 | 76 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 303 | 390 | 382 | 773 | 80 | 349 | 13 | 11 | 339 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 198 | 163 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 221 | 335 | 337 | 673 | 117 | 242 | 16 | 13 | 301 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 284 | 231 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 61 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 378 | 346 | 725 | 87 | 341 | 21 | 11 | 328 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 200 | 164 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 287 | 403 | 427 | 830 | 140 | 368 | 22 | 14 | 369 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 111 | 102 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 248 | 324 | 571 | 127 | 258 | 30 | 5 | 253 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 207 | 173 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 249 | 340 | 353 | 693 | 104 | 273 | 14 | 9 | 304 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tuneros de San Luis | — | 177 | 161 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 243 | 236 | 479 | 50 | 215 | 16 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 120 | 105 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 310 | 333 | 644 | 95 | 293 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 262 | 229 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 331 | 367 | 698 | 127 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 394 | 352 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 219 | 295 | 335 | 630 | 116 | 278 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 300 | 263 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 281 | 341 | 346 | 687 | 65 | 315 | 15 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 198 | 172 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 215 | 293 | 308 | 601 | 93 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 284 | 243 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 206 | 298 | 259 | 557 | 53 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 200 | 175 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 251 | 332 | 360 | 692 | 109 | 328 | 26 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 111 | 105 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 183 | 238 | 422 | 86 | 218 | 37 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 207 | 179 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 212 | 284 | 291 | 575 | 78 | 228 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tuneros de San Luis | — | 177 | 161 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 243 | 236 | 479 | 50 | 218 | 16 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | AAA RAW | Tuneros de San Luis | — | 177 | 157 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 272 | 255 | 526 | 57 | 224 | 13 | 8 | 241 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 120 | 105 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 310 | 333 | 644 | 95 | 315 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AAA RAW | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 120 | 98 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 347 | 709 | 102 | 310 | 22 | 13 | 319 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 262 | 229 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 331 | 367 | 698 | 127 | 294 | 23 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AAA RAW | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 262 | 217 | 56 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 381 | 419 | 800 | 161 | 296 | 19 | 15 | 360 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 394 | 352 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 219 | 295 | 335 | 630 | 116 | 282 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA RAW | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 394 | 335 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 82 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 245 | 351 | 391 | 742 | 146 | 298 | 21 | 12 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 300 | 263 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 281 | 341 | 346 | 687 | 65 | 333 | 15 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA RAW | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 300 | 251 | 76 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 303 | 390 | 382 | 773 | 80 | 349 | 13 | 11 | 339 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 198 | 172 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 215 | 293 | 308 | 601 | 93 | 250 | 19 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA RAW | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 198 | 163 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 221 | 335 | 337 | 673 | 117 | 242 | 16 | 13 | 301 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 284 | 243 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 206 | 298 | 259 | 557 | 53 | 292 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA RAW | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 284 | 231 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 61 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 378 | 346 | 725 | 87 | 341 | 21 | 11 | 328 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 200 | 175 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 251 | 332 | 360 | 692 | 109 | 345 | 26 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA RAW | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 200 | 164 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 287 | 403 | 427 | 830 | 140 | 368 | 22 | 14 | 369 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 111 | 105 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 183 | 238 | 422 | 86 | 226 | 37 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 111 | 102 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 248 | 324 | 571 | 127 | 258 | 30 | 5 | 253 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 207 | 179 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 212 | 284 | 291 | 575 | 78 | 243 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 207 | 173 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 249 | 340 | 353 | 693 | 104 | 273 | 14 | 9 | 304 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | AAA MLE | Tuneros de San Luis | — | 177 | 163 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 243 | 233 | 476 | 49 | 215 | 16 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 120 | 108 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 324 | 634 | 93 | 293 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 262 | 229 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 331 | 367 | 698 | 127 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 394 | 353 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 98 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 218 | 295 | 334 | 629 | 116 | 278 | 25 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | Dorados de Chihuahua | — | 300 | 273 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 271 | 341 | 333 | 675 | 62 | 315 | 15 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 198 | 177 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 209 | 293 | 299 | 593 | 90 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 284 | 250 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 298 | 252 | 550 | 52 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 200 | 177 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 249 | 332 | 356 | 688 | 107 | 328 | 26 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 111 | 106 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 151 | 183 | 236 | 419 | 85 | 218 | 37 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 207 | 187 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 203 | 284 | 278 | 562 | 75 | 228 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2253 | 1984 | 446 | 67 | 8 | 31 | 166 | 506 | 44 | 15 | 19 | 225 | 299 | 314 | 613 | 89 | 284 | 22 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -84 | -5 | +0 | +8 | +49 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 128 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 146 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 224 | 299 | 311 | 610 | 87 | 283 | 22 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -24 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 207 PAwOBA .297 → .248 (−48)K% 14.0% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.01% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.73% | ÷0.903 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.024 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×0.952 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.948 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.952 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.099 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.952 | 1.68% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 98, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .297 → .248; ISO .104 → .076; BABIP .273 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 111 PAwOBA .242 → .185 (−57)K% 29.7% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.50% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 3.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.84% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.029 | ×0.962 | 16.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.962 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 3.03% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .242 → .185; ISO .127 → .087; BABIP .258 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 200 PAwOBA .357 → .303 (−54)K% 21.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.50% | ÷0.972 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.034 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 25.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.44% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.31% | ÷0.875 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.57% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .303; ISO .140 → .119; BABIP .368 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAARieleros de Aguascalientes · 284 PAwOBA .320 → .255 (−65)K% 21.5% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.48% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.21% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 4.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.88% | ÷1.057 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 21.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.130 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.038 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .320 → .255; ISO .087 → .062; BABIP .341 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 198 PAwOBA .296 → .262 (−34)K% 16.2% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.16% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.13% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.37% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×1.038 | ×0.992 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.53% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | ×0.992 | 1.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.992 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.007 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.63% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .296 → .262; ISO .117 → .094; BABIP .242 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAADorados de Chihuahua · 300 PAwOBA .332 → .298 (−34)K% 13.0% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.038 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.67% | ÷1.039 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.30% | ÷1.072 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.003 | 25.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.003 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.129 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.59% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 106, K 108, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .332 → .298; ISO .080 → .071; BABIP .349 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAADorados de Chihuahua · 394 PAwOBA .323 → .278 (−45)K% 20.8% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 20.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.53% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .323 → .278; ISO .146 → .118; BABIP .298 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAADorados de Chihuahua · 262 PAwOBA .351 → .306 (−45)K% 19.1% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 25.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 1.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.90% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .351 → .306; ISO .161 → .128; BABIP .296 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).