Sergio Alcántara

SS Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 31 S/R 5'10" / 177 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202428AAA/INTL2 orgs667.273/.390/.41811990—.219/.307/.325
202529AAA/INTL2 orgs518.235/.357/.3192566—.220/.307/.295
202630AAA/INTL2 orgs165.221/.378/.3442462—.172/.294/.246
2027PROJ10% MLB31MLBPHI12.221/.312/.33400840.0
2028PROJ27% MLB32MLBPHI31.215/.305/.3200079-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service7.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2025
Speed55
Avg EV14
xwOBA11
Barrel%10
Bat Spd10
CompsElian Herrera (age 31) · Wilmer Difo (age 31) · Andrew Knapp (age 30)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†84
AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .312 / .334
PA12
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP285
ISO120
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +2.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.2-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2025
CONTACT50
xAVG
100.209
POWER35
Barrel%
102.7
Avg EV
1486.4
Bat Spd
1066.7
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
5527.7
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2020
Service   7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$2M+0.0$0.1M-$2M
Totals $2M $0.1M -$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201317 ROKACL D-backs — 218169 41540 44361 32 243402320721 77304 1720 336 62 — — — — — —
201418 ROKMissoula Osprey — 320266 651101 48621 84 244362297659 53314 1915 307 41 — — — — — —
201519 AKane County Cougars — 7971 8100 4171 10 113171127298 14145 225 141 -33 — — — — — —
201620 A+Visalia Rawhide — 1915 4100 321 01 267421333754 67308 1116 359 91 — — — — — —
201620 AKane County Cougars — 201180 48611 14260 32 267320328647 61299 137 285 62 — — — — — —
201620 ROKACL D-backs — 3529 10110 420 20 345424448873 103370 611 369 84 — — — — — —
201620 INTLDominican Republic — 125105 24110 18180 11 229341257599 29276 1414 283 78 — — — — — —
201721 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 521466 1241933 48800 1513 266335339674 73315 159 304 63 — — — — — —
201721 INTLTigres del Licey — 126106 27200 16151 10 255358274631 19297 1213 294 85 — — — — — —
201822 AAErie SeaWolves — 494442 1201831 42951 85 271336333669 61342 199 301 74 — — — — — —
201822 INTLTigres del Licey — 10389 19500 10130 10 213293270563 56250 1310 253 57 — — — — — —
201923 AAErie SeaWolves — 378324 801002 48712 76 247348296644 49308 1913 300 57 — — — — — —
201923 INTLTigres del Licey — 1614 4100 230 10 286375357732 71364 1912 337 114 — — — — — —
202024 MLBDetroit Tigers — 2321 3011 240 00 143217381598 238125 179 261 66 -1 +0 -1 +0 +0 -0.1
202024 INTLTigres del Licey — 8270 18212 8212 20 257350400750 143333 2610 331 110 — — — — — —
202125 MLBChicago Cubs — 255220 45635 30742 30 205306327633 123280 2912 288 76 -7 +1 +8 +5 +6 1.1
202125 AAAIowa Cubs — 10382 25303 21230 30 305447451898 146393 2220 407 113 — — — — — —
202125 INTLTigres del Licey — 8669 20411 16120 01 290424420844 130333 1419 380 143 — — — — — —
202226 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 224205 45816 12571 12 220266356622 137267 255 271 67 -9 -1 -0 +1 +5 -0.4
202226 INTLTigres del Licey — 114100 21412 12320 02 210295330625 120284 2811 280 76 — — — — — —
202327 AAAReno Aces — 403336 901728 59941 00 268379402781 134343 2315 349 70 — — — — — —
202327 INTLDominican Republic — 7966 9110 11170 00 136260182442 45184 2214 214 31 — — — — — —
202428 AAAReno Aces — 492409 1112178 78912 81 271391416806 144329 1816 363 77 — — — — — —
202428 INTLTigres del Licey — 175144 401013 26270 11 278388424812 146314 1515 356 127 — — — — — —
202529 AAAReno Aces — 441367 922132 67872 44 251369341710 90321 2015 326 69 — — — — — —
202529 INTLTigres del Licey — 7763 9110 13200 10 143289190480 48205 2617 238 47 — — — — — —
202630 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 144112 25802 31380 41 223392348740 125315 2622 345 61 — — — — — —
202630 INTLTigres del Licey — 2119 4200 230 00 211286316602 105250 1410 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 502446 9314512 441353 42 209284343627 135266 279 279 75 -15 +0 +6 +6 +11 0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201317 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 218185 36430 28521 32 195304249552 54264 2413 260 62 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLEMissoula Osprey — 320284 55801 30891 84 194273232505 39269 289 229 41 — — — — — —
201519 A MLEKane County Cougars — 7972 8100 3241 10 111158125283 14141 304 120 -33 — — — — — —
201620 A+ MLEVisalia Rawhide — 1916 4100 231 01 250368312681 62284 1611 303 91 — — — — — —
201620 A MLEKane County Cougars — 201184 46511 10340 32 250289304593 54285 175 260 62 — — — — — —
201620 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 3531 9110 230 20 290333387720 97295 96 292 84 — — — — — —
201721 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 521482 1162022 321140 1513 241288303591 62308 226 261 63 — — — — — —
201822 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 494453 1201731 311161 85 265313322636 57343 236 278 74 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 378339 76801 33872 76 224297257553 32290 239 252 57 — — — — — —
202024 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 2321 3011 240 00 143217381598 238125 179 266 66 -1 +0 -1 +0 +0 -0.1
202125 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 255222 45635 28742 30 203298324622 122280 2911 280 76 -7 +1 +8 +5 +6 1.1
202125 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 10389 24302 14270 30 270369371740 101364 2614 335 113 — — — — — —
202226 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 224205 44716 12571 12 215261346608 132267 255 267 67 -9 -1 -0 +1 +5 -0.4
202327 AAA MLEReno Aces — 403358 801426 371181 00 223298324622 101298 299 272 70 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLEReno Aces — 492434 951775 531132 81 219307325632 106279 2311 282 77 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLEReno Aces — 441387 851732 471022 44 220307295602 75285 2311 270 69 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 144122 21601 21460 41 172294246540 74258 3215 259 61 — — — — — —
201317 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 218185 36430 28521 32 195304249552 54267 2413 260 62 — — — — — —
201317 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 218169 41540 44361 32 243402320721 77304 1720 336 62 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLEMissoula Osprey — 320284 55801 30891 84 194273232505 39277 289 229 41 — — — — — —
201418 ROK RAWMissoula Osprey — 320266 651101 48621 84 244362297659 53314 1915 307 41 — — — — — —
201519 A MLEKane County Cougars — 7972 8100 3241 10 111158125283 14163 304 120 -33 — — — — — —
201519 A RAWKane County Cougars — 7971 8100 4171 10 113171127298 14145 225 141 -33 — — — — — —
201620 A MLE4 teams — 380346 881031 22591 64 254301309610 55300 166 268 67 — — — — — —
201620 A RAW4 teams — 380329 86931 39481 64 261341316658 55299 1310 296 67 — — — — — —
201721 A+ MLE2 teams — 647596 1452532 401421 1613 243292305597 62316 226 261 63 — — — — — —
201721 A+ RAW2 teams — 647572 1512133 64951 1613 264339327666 63312 1510 302 63 — — — — — —
201822 AA MLE2 teams — 597546 1452041 371401 95 266313322636 57354 236 278 74 — — — — — —
201822 AA RAW2 teams — 597531 1392331 521081 95 262329322651 60325 189 293 74 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLE2 teams — 394354 78801 34912 86 220292251544 31292 239 252 57 — — — — — —
201923 AA RAW2 teams — 394338 841102 50742 86 249349299648 50311 1913 302 57 — — — — — —
202024 INTL MLE2 teams — 10592 15055 9182 20 163252435687 272143 179 266 66 — — — — — —
202024 INTL RAW2 teams — 10591 21223 10252 20 231320396716 165281 2410 316 66 — — — — — —
202125 MLB MLE3 teams — 444386 851139 521252 61 220316334650 114298 2812 296 86 -7 +1 +8 +5 +10 1.6
202125 MLB RAW3 teams — 444371 901349 671092 61 243361372733 129316 2515 333 86 -7 +1 +8 +5 +10 1.6
202226 MLB MLE2 teams — 338311 6711110 18861 14 215261354614 138259 255 267 67 -13 -1 -0 +1 +7 -0.7
202226 MLB RAW2 teams — 338305 661228 24891 14 216276348623 131272 267 274 67 -13 -1 -0 +1 +7 -0.7
202327 AAA MLE2 teams — 482428 951627 441421 00 222296318614 96310 299 272 70 — — — — — —
202327 AAA RAW2 teams — 482402 991838 701111 00 246359366725 119316 2315 327 70 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 667586 1282397 711532 92 218305324629 106279 2311 282 77 — — — — — —
202428 AAA RAW2 teams — 667553 15131811 1041182 92 273390418808 145325 1816 361 77 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE2 teams — 518455 1002042 551202 54 220307295601 75292 2311 270 69 — — — — — —
202529 AAA RAW2 teams — 518430 1012242 801072 54 235357319676 84306 2115 313 69 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 165140 24702 24520 41 171293264557 93253 3215 259 61 — — — — — —
202630 AAA RAW2 teams — 165131 291002 33410 41 221378344722 122303 2520 336 61 — — — — — —
201317 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 218187 36430 28521 32 193304246550 53264 2413 260 62 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLEMissoula Osprey — 320286 55801 30891 84 192273231504 38269 289 229 41 — — — — — —
201519 A MLEKane County Cougars — 7975 8100 3241 10 107158120278 13141 304 120 -33 — — — — — —
201620 A MLE4 teams — 380354 881031 22591 64 249301302603 54286 166 268 67 — — — — — —
201721 A+ MLE2 teams — 647601 1452532 401421 1613 241292303595 62308 226 261 63 — — — — — —
201822 AA MLE2 teams — 597554 1452041 371401 95 262313318631 56343 236 278 74 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLE2 teams — 394355 78801 34912 86 220292251543 31290 239 252 57 — — — — — —
202024 INTL MLE2 teams — 10593 15055 9182 20 161252430683 269125 179 266 66 — — — — — —
202125 MLB MLE3 teams — 444387 851139 521252 61 220316333649 114304 2812 296 86 — — — — — —
202226 MLB MLE2 teams — 338316 6711110 18861 14 212261348609 136267 255 267 67 — — — — — —
202327 AAA MLE2 teams — 482434 951627 441421 00 219296313609 94298 299 272 70 — — — — — —
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 667589 1282397 711532 92 217305323628 105279 2311 282 77 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE2 teams — 518456 1002042 551202 54 219307294601 75285 2311 270 69 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 165140 24702 24520 41 171293264557 93258 3215 259 61 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202428 AAA MLE2 teams — 667589 1282397 711532 92 217305323628 105279 2311 282 77 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE2 teams — 518456 1002042 551202 54 219307294601 75285 2311 270 69 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 165140 24702 24520 41 171293264557 93258 3215 259 61 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202731 MLB MLEPHI 10% 200175 38813 22481 31 221312331643 110285 2411 293 84 -4 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202731 MLB CTXPHI 10% 1211 2000 130 00 221312334647 113285 258 294 84 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202832 MLB MLEPHI 27% 11299 21411 12280 10 214305317621 102280 2511 284 79 -3 +0 -3 +1 +2 -0.2
202832 MLB CTXPHI 27% 3128 5100 380 00 215305320625 105280 2610 286 79 -1 +0 -1 +0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 533474 9815512 471433 42 207282335618 129265 279 279 67 -16 +0 +5 +7 +12 0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 11918615 571744 52 206282336617 130263 279 279 67 -19 +0 +6 +8 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 55904988 11141733951 493135119 8147 223296304600 81293 249 267 67 -20 +0 +3 +9 +16 0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 1302056 571572 95 224296307603 83294 249 267 67 -18 +0 +3 +8 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 144 PAwOBA .340 → .259 (−80)K% 26.4% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.39%÷1.000×1.200——31.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.53%÷1.000×0.690—×0.97214.44%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP20.27%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×0.97217.41%
Doubles /BIP10.81%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×0.9728.29%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP2.70%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9721.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .259; ISO .125 → .096; BABIP .315 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 441 PAwOBA .320 → .270 (−51)K% 19.7% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.73%÷1.025×1.200——23.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.19%÷0.964×0.690—×0.98210.68%
HBP% /PA0.45%—×0.940—×0.9820.42%
Singles /BIP23.57%÷0.994×0.930×1.003×0.98221.71%
Doubles /BIP7.50%÷1.069×0.830×1.003×0.9825.73%
Triples /BIP1.07%÷0.902×0.970×1.003×0.9821.13%
Home runs /BIP0.71%÷0.904×0.700—×0.9820.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .320 → .270; ISO .090 → .076; BABIP .321 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 492 PAwOBA .357 → .282 (−75)K% 18.5% → 23.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.50%÷0.964×1.200——23.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.85%÷1.012×0.690—×0.99210.72%
HBP% /PA0.41%—×0.940—×0.9920.38%
Singles /BIP23.58%÷1.076×0.930×1.005×0.99220.33%
Doubles /BIP6.60%÷1.025×0.830×1.005×0.9925.34%
Triples /BIP2.20%÷1.017×0.970×1.005×0.9922.09%
Home runs /BIP2.52%÷1.124×0.700—×0.9921.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .357 → .282; ISO .144 → .112; BABIP .329 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 403 PAwOBA .344 → .272 (−72)K% 23.3% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.33%÷0.951×1.200——29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.39%÷1.096×0.690—×1.0039.09%
HBP% /PA0.25%—×0.940—×1.0030.23%
Singles /BIP26.03%÷1.026×0.930×0.995×1.00323.56%
Doubles /BIP7.02%÷1.059×0.830×0.995×1.0035.49%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.150×0.970×0.995×1.0030.70%
Home runs /BIP3.31%÷1.012×0.700—×1.0032.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .344 → .272; ISO .134 → .101; BABIP .343 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 103 PAwOBA .395 → .335 (−59)K% 22.3% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.33%÷1.032×1.200——25.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.42%÷1.023×0.690—×1.03313.53%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP32.20%÷1.039×0.930×1.025×1.03330.51%
Doubles /BIP5.08%÷0.963×0.830×1.025×1.0334.64%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.988×0.920×1.025×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP5.08%÷1.081×0.700—×1.0333.40%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .395 → .335; ISO .146 → .113; BABIP .393 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAErie SeaWolves · 378 PAwOBA .295 → .252 (−42)K% 18.8% → 23.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.78%÷0.994×1.220——23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.70%÷1.050×0.700—×1.0278.69%
HBP% /PA0.53%—×0.850—×1.0270.46%
Singles /BIP26.88%÷0.978×0.970×0.950×1.02726.00%
Doubles /BIP3.95%÷1.077×0.860×0.950×1.0273.08%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.127×0.950×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.79%÷1.294×0.780—×1.0270.49%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 125, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .295 → .252; ISO .049 → .036; BABIP .308 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAErie SeaWolves · 494 PAwOBA .295 → .278 (−17)K% 19.2% → 23.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.23%÷0.999×1.220——23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.50%÷1.007×0.700—×1.0426.16%
HBP% /PA0.20%—×0.850—×1.0420.18%
Singles /BIP28.24%÷1.016×0.970×1.019×1.04228.61%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷0.974×0.860×1.019×1.0424.86%
Triples /BIP0.86%÷0.901×0.950×1.019×1.0420.97%
Home runs /BIP0.29%÷1.112×0.780—×1.0420.21%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .295 → .278; ISO .061 → .058; BABIP .342 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 521 PAwOBA .297 → .261 (−36)K% 15.4% → 21.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.36%÷0.995×1.420——21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.21%÷1.138×0.750—×1.0276.24%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP25.65%÷1.012×0.920×1.029×1.02724.63%
Doubles /BIP4.92%÷0.918×0.960×1.029×1.0275.44%
Triples /BIP0.78%÷1.039×0.810×1.029×1.0270.64%
Home runs /BIP0.78%÷1.747×0.880—×1.0270.40%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 249, 1B 102, 2B 84, 3B 108, K 99, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .297 → .261; ISO .073 → .064; BABIP .315 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .