César Salazar

C Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 L/R 5'8" / 198 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.320 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	418	.250/.372/.381	8	2	84	—	.221/.320/.355
2024	28	MLBHOU	32	.320/.414/.400	0	0	112	1.1
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	298	.229/.370/.356	7	3	83	—	.189/.295/.302
2025	29	MLBHOU	16	.231/.375/.231	0	0	91	0.6
2026	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	241	.267/.399/.390	5	6	88	—	.226/.329/.326
2026	30	MLBHOU	22	.056/.227/.056	0	0	1	0.3
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBHOU	16	.214/.315/.318	0	0	82	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBHOU	52	.210/.309/.309	1	0	78	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.320First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

K%81

BB%81

Whiff%75

Max EV72

Z-Con%72

Speed71

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsGarrett Stubbs (age 31) · Brett Sullivan (age 30) · Wiki Gonzalez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .315 / .318

PA16

HR0

K%19

BB%6

BABIP255

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

740.271

POWER45

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

1367.3

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1022.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.320 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	50	44	8	0	0	3	4	13	2	0	0	182	280	386	666	205	179	26	8	301	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	52	47	12	4	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	255	271	404	675	149	306	21	2	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	279	248	65	16	1	3	17	41	8	5	3	262	330	371	701	109	295	15	6	311	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	29	27	6	4	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	222	276	370	646	148	316	28	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	97	83	23	5	1	1	10	23	3	2	1	277	375	398	773	120	367	24	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	122	107	26	5	1	8	9	24	4	2	1	243	325	533	858	290	234	20	7	367	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	96	80	19	4	0	3	9	23	5	2	0	237	351	400	751	163	286	24	9	335	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	203	179	42	14	1	1	10	51	9	2	0	235	308	341	649	106	318	25	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	66	59	12	1	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	203	277	220	497	17	255	20	8	234	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	351	307	85	17	0	16	24	58	14	8	3	277	357	489	845	212	289	17	7	368	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	164	142	33	4	0	1	14	25	3	0	0	232	314	282	596	49	269	15	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	111	158	111	269		167	32	5	132	-25	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.5
2023	27	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	222	173	33	8	0	2	31	33	16	3	0	191	364	272	635	81	223	15	14	309	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	96	74	19	2	0	0	10	15	3	0	0	257	368	284	652	27	322	16	10	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	32	25	8	2	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	320	414	400	814	80	381	19	6	339	112	+0	+0	+2	+8	+1	1.1
2024	28	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	321	261	66	13	2	8	45	45	10	1	2	253	383	410	793	157	274	14	14	356	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	97	83	20	4	0	0	8	18	4	1	0	241	337	289	626	48	299	19	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	16	13	3	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	231	375	231	606		273	12	12	303	91	-0	+0	+0	+6	+0	0.6
2025	29	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	186	150	32	6	0	5	24	32	9	2	0	213	355	353	709	140	237	17	13	325	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	112	86	22	3	0	2	16	17	4	1	1	256	396	360	757	105	294	15	14	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	22	18	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	56	227	56	283		67	14	14	170	1	-3	+0	+0	+5	+0	0.3
2026	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	222	180	47	6	1	5	31	36	8	6	2	261	393	389	782	128	298	16	14	355	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	19	15	5	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	1	333	474	400	874	67	417	16	21	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	89	74	14	2	0	0	8	17	4	0	0	189	302	216	519	27	237	19	9	247	53	-5	+0	+3	+24	+2	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	50	45	6	0	0	2	3	18	2	0	0	133	220	267	487	133	172	36	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	279	254	54	11	1	2	11	56	8	5	3	213	267	287	555	75	245	20	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	122	110	22	4	1	6	6	30	4	2	1	200	267	418	685	218	199	25	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	96	83	15	3	0	2	6	31	5	2	0	181	277	289	566	108	231	32	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	66	60	11	1	0	0	4	16	1	0	0	183	246	200	446	17	232	24	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	351	316	70	14	0	12	15	75	14	8	3	222	287	380	667	158	238	21	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	111	158	111	269		167	32	5	132	-25	-3	+0	+1	+6	+0	0.5
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	222	183	33	8	0	2	21	40	16	3	0	180	318	257	575	77	212	18	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	32	25	8	2	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	320	414	400	814	80	381	19	6	334	112	+0	+0	+2	+8	+1	1.1
2024	28	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	321	276	61	12	2	7	30	54	10	1	2	221	320	355	675	134	236	17	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	16	13	3	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	231	375	231	606		273	12	12	302	91	-0	+0	+0	+6	+0	0.6
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	186	159	30	6	0	4	15	39	9	2	0	189	295	302	597	113	213	21	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	22	18	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	56	227	56	283		67	14	14	169	1	-3	+0	+0	+5	+0	0.3
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	222	190	43	5	1	4	21	43	8	6	2	226	329	326	655	100	262	19	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	102	90	13	0	0	4	6	37	2	0	0	144	214	278	492	133	180	36	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	102	91	20	4	0	4	5	24	2	0	0	220	276	396	671	176	250	24	5	287	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	308	280	60	12	1	3	13	61	9	5	3	214	272	296	568	82	257	20	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	308	275	71	20	1	3	18	49	9	5	3	258	325	371	695	113	297	16	6	309	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL MLE	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	97	83	23	5	1	1	10	23	3	2	1	277	375	398	773	120	367	24	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	INTL RAW	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	97	83	23	5	1	1	10	23	3	2	1	277	375	398	773	120	367	24	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	421	372	69	13	1	15	22	119	18	6	1	185	265	347	611	161	221	28	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	421	366	87	23	2	12	28	98	18	6	1	238	323	410	733	172	286	23	7	322	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	581	524	112	20	0	17	27	126	18	8	3	214	276	349	625	135	243	22	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA RAW	3 teams	—	581	508	130	22	0	17	43	96	18	8	3	256	336	400	735	144	279	17	7	326	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	337	276	48	11	0	2	31	64	19	3	0	174	301	236	536	62	218	19	9	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	337	265	54	10	0	2	42	54	19	3	0	204	353	264	617	60	248	16	12	292	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	450	384	86	17	3	8	40	76	16	2	2	224	323	346	669	122	253	17	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	450	369	94	19	2	8	55	69	16	2	2	255	375	382	757	127	287	15	12	341	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	314	264	51	9	0	6	27	63	14	3	1	193	302	295	597	102	228	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	314	249	57	9	0	7	42	51	14	3	1	229	370	349	720	120	259	16	13	327	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	263	225	47	5	1	4	26	50	9	6	3	209	315	293	609	84	249	19	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	263	213	53	7	1	5	38	42	9	6	3	249	385	362	746	113	286	16	14	343	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	102	93	13	0	0	4	6	37	2	0	0	140	214	269	483	129	172	36	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	308	283	60	12	1	3	13	61	9	5	3	212	272	293	565	81	245	20	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	421	378	69	13	1	15	22	119	18	6	1	183	265	341	606	159	213	28	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	581	531	112	20	0	17	27	126	18	8	3	211	276	345	621	134	237	22	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	337	284	48	11	0	2	31	64	19	3	0	169	301	229	529	60	208	19	9	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	450	391	86	17	3	8	40	76	16	2	2	220	323	340	663	120	249	17	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	314	270	51	9	0	6	27	63	14	3	1	189	302	289	591	100	218	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	263	226	47	5	1	4	26	50	9	6	3	208	315	292	607	84	244	19	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	450	391	86	17	3	8	40	76	16	2	2	220	323	340	663	120	249	17	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	314	270	51	9	0	6	27	63	14	3	1	189	302	289	591	100	218	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	263	226	47	5	1	4	26	50	9	6	3	208	315	292	607	84	244	19	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	294	255	54	9	1	5	27	57	10	4	1	212	313	315	628	103	252	19	9	290	82	-6	+0	+1	+5	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	214	315	318	633	104	255	19	6	292	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	33%	160	139	30	5	1	3	15	32	5	1	1	208	307	306	613	98	250	20	9	284	78	-4	-0	-3	+3	+3	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	33%	52	45	10	2	0	1	5	10	2	0	0	210	309	309	618	99	253	19	10	286	78	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	141	119	24	4	0	1	13	27	6	0	0	202	312	261	572	59	247	19	9	261	64	-6	+0	+2	+25	+3	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	549	111	18	0	5	60	124	28	0	0	202	313	262	575	60	247	19	9	261	64	-29	+0	+8	+117	+14	11.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3188	2772	568	102	9	66	231	681	118	38	16	205	294	320	613	115	243	21	7	263	64	-12	-0	-0	+30	+9	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	116	21	2	13	47	139	24	8	3	205	294	319	613	113	245	21	7	263	64	-20	-0	-0	+48	+14	4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 222 PAwOBA .350 → .290 (−60)K% 16.2% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.96%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.37%
HBP% /PA	3.60%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	3.29%
Singles /BIP	24.31%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.999	×0.972	21.95%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.999	×0.972	3.36%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.999	×0.972	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .350 → .290; ISO .128 → .098; BABIP .298 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 186 PAwOBA .319 → .264 (−55)K% 17.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.20%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	20.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.90%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.28%
HBP% /PA	4.84%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	4.47%
Singles /BIP	17.80%	÷1.012	×0.930	×1.007	×0.982	16.16%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷0.891	×0.830	×1.007	×0.982	4.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.007	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.24%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .319 → .264; ISO .140 → .114; BABIP .237 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 321 PAwOBA .351 → .294 (−57)K% 14.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.02%	÷1.006	×1.200	—	—	16.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.71%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.18%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.90%
Singles /BIP	19.91%	÷1.035	×0.930	×0.975	×0.992	17.30%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷0.953	×0.830	×0.975	×0.992	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.975	×0.992	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .351 → .294; ISO .157 → .136; BABIP .274 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 222 PAwOBA .304 → .266 (−38)K% 14.9% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.96%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.40%
HBP% /PA	7.21%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	6.80%
Singles /BIP	16.43%	÷0.981	×0.930	×1.005	×1.003	15.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷0.882	×0.830	×1.005	×1.003	5.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.056	×0.970	×1.005	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷0.896	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .304 → .266; ISO .081 → .074; BABIP .223 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 351 PAwOBA .364 → .288 (−76)K% 16.5% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.52%	÷0.947	×1.220	—	—	21.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.84%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.988	4.36%
HBP% /PA	3.99%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	3.43%
Singles /BIP	20.88%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	17.72%
Doubles /BIP	6.83%	÷0.986	×0.840	×0.950	×0.988	5.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.044	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.43%	÷1.040	×0.800	—	×0.988	4.89%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .288; ISO .212 → .163; BABIP .289 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 66 PAwOBA .232 → .201 (−32)K% 19.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.70%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.58%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.45%
Singles /BIP	23.91%	÷0.982	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	21.89%
Doubles /BIP	2.17%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	1.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.917	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .232 → .201; ISO .017 → .014; BABIP .255 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 122 PAwOBA .360 → .283 (−76)K% 19.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.67%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	25.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.56%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×0.998	4.56%
HBP% /PA	3.28%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	2.78%
Singles /BIP	14.46%	÷1.002	×0.940	×0.961	×0.998	13.01%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷0.987	×0.870	×0.961	×0.998	5.09%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.961	×0.998	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	9.64%	÷1.074	×0.780	—	×0.998	6.99%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .360 → .283; ISO .290 → .215; BABIP .234 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 96 PAwOBA .334 → .247 (−86)K% 24.0% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.96%	÷0.995	×1.350	—	—	32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.044	×0.710	—	×0.978	6.24%
HBP% /PA	5.21%	—	×0.810	—	×0.978	4.13%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.983	×0.910	×0.955	×0.978	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷1.111	×0.830	×0.955	×0.978	4.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.910	×0.820	×0.955	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.131	×0.830	—	×0.978	3.78%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 122, 3B 82, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .334 → .247; ISO .163 → .111; BABIP .286 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
César Salazar (OGILVIE)	31	45	45	45	60	210/310/312	102	252	3	2	19%	9%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Brett Sullivan 2024 · MLB	30	48→52	43→50	49→55	49	234/286/350	116	265	9	9	16%	6%	80	-0.2	209/260/337	128	238	12	8	18%	6%	67	-1.1	190/241/319	130	212	13	5	18%	6%	54	-1.1
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	31	47	42→45	48→30	54	225/301/337	112	258	9	7	16%	9%	82	+0.0	245/295/370	125	257	13	5	11%	6%	88	+0.4	240/285/357	117	246	14	2	9%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Gerald Laird 2010 · MLB	30	48→47	42→50	46→50	50	233/301/342	109	269	8	7	17%	7%	84	+0.1	230/292/339	109	266	9	7	16%	7%	79	-0.2	262/328/360	98	303	6	3	14%	8%	98	+0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2016 · MLB	30	47→43	44→50	48→45	46	233/288/347	114	287	11	9	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/276/349	123	280	13	6	24%	6%	76	-0.4	215/264/337	122	269	13	2	25%	6%	66	-0.6
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	45	48→40	46	221/280/340	119	261	14	6	22%	7%	76	-0.4	238/302/348	110	299	11	5	23%	7%	85	+0.2	237/301/332	94	305	9	2	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Mark Johnson 2006 · MLB	30	46	41→40	44→40	55	223/301/325	102	255	8	5	16%	9%	80	-0.2	226/300/310	84	265	7	5	16%	9%	76	-0.4	228/306/286	58	265	5	1	15%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Landon Powell 2012 · MLB	30	43→41	44→50	47→30	52	214/290/321	107	265	12	5	24%	10%	75	-0.5	209/275/316	107	272	13	5	27%	8%	68	-1.0	207/265/297	90	262	13	0	25%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Juan Centeno 2022 · MLB	32	47	40→45	49→40	47	226/277/318	91	267	7	6	18%	6%	68	-1.0	225/267/331	106	285	10	6	24%	5%	68	-1.0	219/258/318	98	281	10	3	25%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Brandon Harper 2007 · MLB	31	47	45	50→45	50	229/302/352	123	259	12	9	17%	7%	86	+0.3	199/259/292	93	240	8	8	20%	6%	57	-1.8	153/207/206	53	188	3	3	20%	5%	13	-2.5
✕Erick Almonte 2009 · AAA	31	49→47	43→40	44→45	51	236/301/348	112	283	10	7	20%	9%	85	+0.2	241/293/330	89	307	7	7	22%	7%	77	-0.3	245/295/320	74	315	5	5	23%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Donovan Walton 2024 · MLB	30	46→55	45→50	44→45	48	225/287/349	124	258	11	8	18%	7%	80	-0.1	238/301/350	112	270	12	7	16%	7%	85	+0.2	241/312/357	116	269	13	5	16%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Koyie Hill 2010 · MLB	31	46→42	44→45	45→40	44	226/281/348	122	289	11	4	25%	7%	78	-0.3	206/253/300	94	274	8	5	27%	6%	55	-1.9	181/220/251	69	241	6	3	27%	5%	31	-1.3
✕Paul Bako 2003 · MLB	31	47	42→45	41→40	49	227/288/336	109	273	10	4	20%	8%	77	-0.3	224/293/327	103	279	6	5	21%	8%	77	-0.3	217/284/304	87	290	9	0	27%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Jose Munoz 2010 · AAA	31	51→49	42→45	45→50	54	246/316/361	115	288	9	11	17%	9%	93	+0.8	222/299/322	100	274	8	8	20%	10%	78	-0.3	184/269/260	76	236	6	5	23%	10%	51	-0.8
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2011 · MLB	31	49→50	45	41→45	56	240/303/360	120	246	13	5	10%	8%	88	+0.5	228/293/355	127	244	13	6	13%	8%	83	+0.1	225/280/330	106	244	11	4	13%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Brett Nicholas 2018 · MLB	30	48→50	46→50	43→40	40	238/279/366	127	295	13	4	24%	5%	80	-0.1	227/275/359	132	285	14	5	25%	6%	78	-0.3	213/264/342	129	263	15	1	25%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	46→45	45	41→45	50	227/292/347	120	263	13	5	19%	8%	81	-0.1	233/294/353	120	273	12	7	19%	7%	83	+0.1	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Wilmer Difo 2023 · MLB	31	48→56	43→45	47→55	46	235/281/341	106	276	10	7	19%	6%	75	-0.5	213/277/308	95	274	9	19	24%	8%	67	-1.1	198/271/278	80	262	7	25	26%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Luke Carlin 2012 · MLB	31	44	42→45	45	52	213/294/315	102	273	10	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/279/295	89	253	8	6	21%	9%	65	-1.2	193/267/271	78	234	7	4	20%	9%	53	-0.9