Donovan Walton

2B Athletics

Age 33 L/R 5'9" / 190 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 1.107 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	AAASF	387	.306/.384/.441	7	4	92	—	.270/.321/.374
2024	30	MLBSF	25	.136/.240/.273	1	0	54	-0.1
2025	31	AAAPHI	504	.270/.361/.396	13	4	70	—	.230/.292/.325
2026	32	AAALAA	168	.282/.434/.481	7	3	105	—	.238/.343/.378
2026	32	MLBOAK	268	.261/.358/.448	9	3	123	1.5
2027PROJ	33	MLBOAK	281	.242/.331/.398	8	4	103	0.7
2028PROJ82% MLB	34	MLBOAK	243	.233/.320/.376	7	1	95	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.107First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$1M2030Ext$2M2031Ext$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA50

Speed27

Barrel%24

Bat Spd21

Avg EV10

Form.240/.331/.422 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .236/.323/.389

CompsKevan Smith (age 33) · Dioner Navarro (age 32) · Elias Díaz (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .331 / .398

PA281

HR8

K%17

BB%10

BABIP268

ISO150

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

270.233

POWER45

Barrel%

244.8

Avg EV

1084.0

Bat Spd

2168.3

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▼19% over 80 PA (60d) · proj 17%

BB%10%▲11% over 80 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.182▲.250 over 68 AB (60d) · proj .153

HR/BB5.9%▲9.4% over 53 BBE (60d) · proj 4.2%

BABIP.257·.208 over 48 BIP (60d) · proj .259

SLASH.240/.331/.422▲proj .236/.323/.389

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2019

Service 1.107 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	23	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	272	242	65	16	1	2	27	49	3	6	6	269	349	368	717	99	330	18	10	327	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	17	16	5	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	312	353	688	1.040	375	214	0	6	446	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	238	208	49	14	1	1	21	34	7	3	1	236	326	327	653	91	276	14	9	300	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	256	217	67	12	3	3	30	37	5	8	3	309	405	433	838	124	358	14	12	373	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	19	16	3	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	188	316	188	503		273	26	16	253	58	-1	-0	-0	+6	+0	0.5
2019	25	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	558	480	144	22	3	11	63	72	10	10	13	300	392	427	819	127	333	13	11	367	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	69	63	13	2	1	2	4	15	0	1	0	206	254	365	619	159	239	22	6	266	69	-3	+0	-4	+1	+1	-0.3
2021	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	334	283	86	20	1	13	35	36	11	1	3	304	401	519	921	216	305	11	10	401	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	78	76	12	8	0	1	1	16	1	0	0	158	179	303	482	145	186	21	1	212	31	-6	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.7
2022	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	145	122	31	10	2	2	18	19	1	5	1	254	355	418	773	164	287	13	12	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	109	96	20	2	0	4	10	16	0	1	2	208	283	354	637	146	205	15	9	280	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	76	61	19	3	0	2	10	9	2	2	0	311	425	459	884	148	327	12	13	383	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	50	44	11	3	0	0	4	11	2	0	0	250	340	318	658	68	333	22	8	307	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	36	29	11	4	0	0	5	5	2	0	2	379	500	517	1.017	138	458	14	14	456	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	25	22	3	0	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	136	240	273	513	136	143	28	8	241	54	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2024	30	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	340	104	17	4	7	39	46	4	4	1	306	384	441	825	135	333	12	10	366	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	434	117	16	0	13	55	67	7	4	4	270	361	396	757	127	288	13	11	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB	Athletics	—	268	230	60	14	1	9	28	46	7	3	2	261	358	448	806	187	291	17	10	357	123	+7	-0	+0	+2	+6	1.5
2026	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	168	131	37	3	1	7	32	21	3	3	0	282	434	481	915	198	286	12	19	405	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	459	407	91	24	2	13	38	89	9	4	3	224	304	388	692	165	256	19	8	308	94	-3	-0	-8	+11	+10	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	23	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	272	250	53	11	1	2	19	67	3	6	6	212	276	288	564	76	281	25	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	17	17	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	294	294	647	941	353	164	0	0	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	238	216	48	14	1	1	13	41	7	3	1	222	288	310	598	88	261	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	256	228	60	10	2	3	19	50	5	8	3	263	333	364	697	101	313	20	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	19	16	3	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	188	316	188	503		273	26	16	254	58	-1	-0	-0	+6	+0	0.5
2019	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	558	499	135	20	3	12	44	85	10	10	13	271	342	395	737	124	299	15	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	69	63	13	2	1	2	4	15	0	1	0	206	254	365	619	159	239	22	6	270	69	-3	+0	-4	+1	+1	-0.3
2021	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	334	296	83	18	1	10	22	43	11	1	3	280	353	449	802	169	286	13	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	78	76	12	8	0	1	1	16	1	0	0	158	179	303	482	145	186	21	1	214	31	-6	+0	-3	+1	+2	-0.7
2022	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	145	128	29	9	2	1	12	23	1	5	1	227	298	352	649	125	263	16	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	109	99	19	2	0	3	7	18	0	1	2	192	245	303	548	111	184	17	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	76	65	19	3	0	2	6	11	2	2	0	292	370	431	801	138	287	14	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	50	45	8	2	0	0	3	15	2	0	0	178	260	222	482	44	267	30	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	—	36	31	8	3	0	0	3	7	2	0	2	258	361	355	716	97	324	19	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	25	22	3	0	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	136	240	273	513	136	143	28	8	249	54	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2024	30	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	387	356	96	14	4	5	23	51	4	4	1	270	321	374	695	104	293	13	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	456	105	13	0	10	33	81	7	4	4	230	292	325	617	94	248	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	268	230	59	13	1	9	28	46	7	3	2	257	355	439	794	183	291	17	10	350	123	+7	-0	+0	+2	+6	1.5
2026	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	168	143	34	3	1	5	20	25	3	3	0	238	343	378	721	140	249	15	12	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	289	267	57	11	1	4	19	67	3	8	6	213	273	307	580	94	270	23	7	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	289	258	70	16	1	4	28	49	3	8	6	271	349	388	737	116	322	17	10	334	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	494	444	108	24	3	4	32	91	12	11	4	243	311	338	649	95	295	18	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	494	425	116	26	4	4	51	71	12	11	4	273	367	381	748	108	317	14	10	338	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	515	138	20	3	12	47	90	10	10	14	268	341	388	729	120	303	16	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	577	496	147	22	3	11	66	77	10	10	14	296	390	419	809	123	331	13	11	364	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	403	359	96	20	2	12	26	58	11	2	3	267	336	435	770	167	286	14	6	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	403	346	99	22	2	15	39	51	11	2	3	286	376	491	868	205	295	13	10	378	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	223	204	42	17	2	3	13	39	2	5	1	206	260	353	613	147	241	17	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	223	198	43	18	2	3	19	35	2	5	1	217	292	374	666	157	250	16	9	293	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	271	240	53	9	0	5	19	50	6	3	4	221	294	321	615	100	254	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	271	230	61	12	0	6	29	41	6	3	4	265	362	396	758	130	294	15	11	337	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	412	378	99	14	4	6	25	58	5	4	1	262	316	368	684	106	292	14	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	412	362	107	17	4	8	41	53	5	4	1	296	375	431	806	135	325	13	10	359	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	456	105	13	0	10	33	81	7	4	4	230	292	325	617	94	255	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	434	117	16	0	13	55	67	7	4	4	270	361	396	757	127	288	13	11	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	436	373	92	15	2	14	48	71	10	6	2	247	348	410	758	164	269	16	11	340	116	+8	+0	+0	+2	+9	2.0
2026	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	436	361	97	17	2	16	60	67	10	6	2	269	387	460	847	191	289	15	14	375	116	+8	+0	+0	+2	+9	2.0
2017	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	289	265	57	11	1	4	19	67	3	8	6	215	273	309	583	94	274	23	7	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	494	447	108	24	3	4	32	91	12	11	4	242	311	336	647	94	288	18	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	515	138	20	3	12	47	90	10	10	14	268	341	388	729	120	298	16	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	403	363	96	20	2	12	26	58	11	2	3	264	336	430	766	165	278	14	6	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	223	206	42	17	2	3	13	39	2	5	1	204	260	350	610	146	236	17	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	271	244	53	9	0	5	19	50	6	3	4	217	294	316	610	98	247	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	412	379	99	14	4	6	25	58	5	4	1	261	316	367	683	106	284	14	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	459	105	13	0	10	33	81	7	4	4	229	292	322	615	94	248	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	436	375	92	15	2	14	48	71	10	6	2	245	348	408	756	163	275	16	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	412	379	99	14	4	6	25	58	5	4	1	261	316	367	683	106	284	14	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	504	459	105	13	0	10	33	81	7	4	4	229	292	322	615	94	248	16	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	436	375	92	15	2	14	48	71	10	6	2	245	348	408	756	163	275	16	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	446	391	92	15	2	13	44	76	8	6	2	236	326	389	714	152	259	17	10	321	103	+2	+0	-3	+2	+10	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	281	246	59	11	1	8	28	48	5	4	1	242	331	398	728	155	268	17	10	326	103	+1	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	OAK	82%	296	261	58	9	1	8	28	53	5	1	1	227	316	368	684	141	253	18	9	308	95	-2	-0	-7	+1	+6	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	OAK	82%	243	214	50	9	1	7	23	43	4	1	1	233	320	376	697	143	261	18	9	313	95	-2	-0	-6	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	702	621	141	33	3	20	61	132	13	5	4	227	309	386	696	159	257	19	9	310	89	-5	-1	-14	+12	+15	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	132	31	3	19	56	122	12	5	4	230	311	393	704	163	260	19	9	310	89	-4	-1	-13	+11	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4186	3743	906	162	19	86	318	706	76	58	41	242	314	364	679	122	275	17	8	299	89	-4	-0	-17	+14	+22	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	140	25	3	13	49	110	12	9	6	241	313	361	675	120	274	17	8	299	89	-2	-0	-10	+8	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 168 PAwOBA .399 → .324 (−75)K% 12.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.45%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	12.12%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.60%
Singles /BIP	23.64%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.014	×0.952	21.22%
Doubles /BIP	2.73%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.014	×0.952	2.18%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.014	×0.952	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	6.36%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .399 → .324; ISO .198 → .152; BABIP .286 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 504 PAwOBA .334 → .272 (−63)K% 13.3% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.29%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	16.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.62%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.26%
Singles /BIP	23.98%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.977	×0.962	21.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.36%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.977	×0.962	3.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.977	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.54%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .334 → .272; ISO .127 → .096; BABIP .288 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 387 PAwOBA .358 → .304 (−54)K% 11.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.89%	÷1.081	×1.200	—	—	13.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.05%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.94%
Singles /BIP	25.85%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.990	×0.972	23.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.78%	÷1.052	×0.830	×0.990	×0.972	4.39%
Triples /BIP	1.36%	÷1.091	×0.970	×0.990	×0.972	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .358 → .304; ISO .135 → .105; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 109 PAwOBA .278 → .228 (−49)K% 14.7% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.68%	÷1.087	×1.200	—	—	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.17%	÷0.981	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.34%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.50%	÷0.992	×0.930	×1.003	×0.982	16.15%
Doubles /BIP	2.50%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.003	×0.982	2.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.970	×1.003	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.057	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .278 → .228; ISO .146 → .104; BABIP .205 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 76 PAwOBA .380 → .335 (−44)K% 11.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.84%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.84%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×0.958	8.06%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	2.14%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷0.978	×0.970	×0.950	×0.958	24.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.77%	÷1.003	×0.860	×0.950	×0.958	4.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.906	×0.780	—	×0.958	3.17%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .380 → .335; ISO .148 → .131; BABIP .327 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 50 PAwOBA .300 → .222 (−78)K% 22.0% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.00%	÷1.021	×1.350	—	—	29.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷0.975	×0.710	—	×0.940	5.48%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.810	—	×0.940	3.05%
Singles /BIP	24.24%	÷1.047	×0.910	—	×0.940	19.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.031	×0.830	—	×0.940	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.820	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.076	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .300 → .222; ISO .068 → .049; BABIP .333 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Black · 36 PAwOBA .445 → .306 (−139)K% 13.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.89%	÷1.001	×1.440	—	—	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.89%	÷0.979	×0.620	—	×0.940	8.27%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	3.76%
Singles /BIP	29.17%	÷1.053	×0.820	—	×0.940	21.36%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.017	×0.720	—	×0.940	11.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .445 → .306; ISO .138 → .094; BABIP .458 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 145 PAwOBA .329 → .288 (−41)K% 13.1% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.10%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.41%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.64%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.64%
Singles /BIP	16.50%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.993	×0.992	15.62%
Doubles /BIP	9.71%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.993	×0.992	8.21%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.993	×0.992	2.06%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .329 → .288; ISO .164 → .146; BABIP .287 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#2Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.4	939	27	9	232	312	391	+3	-6	2.7	2.7
/162	664	19	6	+2.4	-4.6	1.9	pk7: 3
#4Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Rick Schu'84-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,729 PA	2.6	1,729	41	17	244*	309*	411*	+1	-22	1.4	1.8
/162	664	16	7	+0.2	-8.4	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Donovan Walton (OGILVIE)	33	60	45	45	50	234/323/385	151	259	8	4	17%	10%	103	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Dioner Navarro 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	49→50	47→45	51	262/315/401	140	284	17	4	15%	7%	102	+1.5	227/287/357	130	268	14	5	20%	7%	82	-0.0	195/261/292	97	238	9	1	21%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Daniel Descalso 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	51→50	48→45	58	232/334/401	168	284	17	4	24%	13%	109	+2.0	201/297/334	133	273	14	6	29%	12%	81	-0.1	159/261/244	85	219	9	5	30%	12%	48	-0.9
✕Stephen Vogt 2017 · MLB	32	50→59	52→60	42→40	50	257/313/426	170	280	19	2	17%	7%	107	+1.9	245/301/428	183	275	21	4	19%	7%	103	+1.6	227/291/414	187	259	22	2	22%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Jason Kipnis 2020 · MLB	33	45→55	51→55	48→55	51	232/299/393	161	256	19	8	18%	8%	95	+0.9	233/308/390	157	286	18	7	24%	9%	97	+1.1	221/310/373	152	292	16	3	28%	10%	93	+0.3
✕Tommy La Stella 2022 · MLB	33	52→55	51→55	48→50	56	258/325/421	162	260	18	3	10%	9%	111	+2.1	241/306/375	134	271	13	5	16%	8%	93	+0.8	242/301/360	118	278	9	0	16%	7%	86	+0.1
✕John Jaso 2016 · MLB	32	54→57	49→50	44→45	56	266/349/425	159	309	15	5	18%	10%	120	+2.8	251/339/416	165	294	16	4	19%	11%	115	+2.4	243/339/410	166	284	16	1	19%	11%	114	+1.4
●Denard Span 2018 · MLB	34	56→64	47→50	49→55	53	273/332/416	143	294	13	13	12%	8%	112	+2.2	260/334/416	156	291	14	11	15%	9%	112	+2.2	259/344/418	159	294	14	11	16%	10%	117	+2.1
✕Kolten Wong 2024 · MLB	33	47→57	48→50	49→55	50	236/312/381	145	271	15	14	19%	8%	97	+1.1	224/292/346	122	271	13	11	22%	7%	81	-0.1	199/253/270	71	252	6	8	23%	5%	47	-0.5
✕Kenji Johjima 2009 · MLB	33	53→58	47→50	43→40	47	260/303/394	134	262	15	3	9%	4%	96	+1.0	245/298/393	148	253	18	7	12%	6%	95	+0.9	245/295/403	158	245	21	5	11%	5%	97	+0.5
✕Ryan Doumit 2014 · MLB	33	51→61	50→55	46→45	48	256/311/417	161	289	18	2	18%	7%	105	+1.7	235/289/386	151	285	18	6	24%	7%	89	+0.5	196/230/322	126	247	20	4	30%	4%	53	-0.6
✕Wilson Ramos 2021 · MLB	33	55→61	49→55	47→30	50	277/334/425	148	307	18	3	16%	7%	115	+2.4	243/293/411	168	270	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	223/256/396	173	235	27	0	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Todd Walker 2006 · MLB	33	56→60	50→55	40→45	53	278/332/442	163	287	16	2	10%	7%	118	+2.6	268/334/398	130	280	13	4	9%	9%	108	+1.9	274/351/392	118	283	11	2	8%	11%	114	+1.9
✕David Freitas 2022 · MLB	33	49→59	46→45	47→40	51	243/313/370	127	289	14	7	21%	9%	95	+0.9	217/275/333	116	267	12	7	23%	7%	72	-0.7	204/257/306	102	247	11	0	22%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Didi Gregorius 2022 · MLB	32	45→55	52→60	48→50	48	233/288/400	167	243	20	6	15%	6%	93	+0.8	213/274/339	126	237	12	6	16%	6%	73	-0.6	188/248/284	96	215	5	3	15%	5%	50	-0.7
✕Nick Hundley 2017 · MLB	33	51→45	49→55	42→40	46	257/304/407	150	304	16	5	21%	6%	99	+1.3	241/284/407	166	304	19	4	26%	6%	93	+0.8	229/267/395	166	295	19	2	29%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	48→57	50→55	41→45	55	246/327/401	155	280	19	2	20%	10%	107	+1.9	250/325/391	141	305	14	6	21%	10%	103	+1.6	269/349/411	142	326	13	5	20%	11%	118	+1.7
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Gabe Kapler 2008 · MLB	33	51→60	45→55	47→55	52	249/316/378	129	276	12	8	15%	8%	97	+1.1	258/321/428	170	287	18	10	17%	8%	111	+2.1	254/321/423	170	281	17	9	16%	8%	110	+0.7

Donovan Walton

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps