Brett Sullivan — OGILVIE

Brett SullivanC Colorado Rockies

Age 32 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.640 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 212 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .286 / .381

PA212

HR6

K%20

BB%7

BABIP259

ISO155

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

901.8%

xwOBA

100.244

POWER40

Barrel%

123.3

Avg EV

1081.5

Bat Spd

1066.4

EYE35

Chase%

907.5%

SPEED50

Sprint

6828.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.640 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$0.1M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	281	269	53	14	2	9	6	50	4	5	0	197	226	364	590	167	209	18	2	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	281	265	69	20	3	11	10	35	4	5	0	260	297	483	781	223	264	12	4	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	479	117	31	0	10	15	92	0	17	4	244	267	372	639	127	279	18	3	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	470	133	34	0	13	24	70	0	17	4	283	318	438	756	155	305	14	5	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	3 teams	—	497	473	115	24	4	9	14	61	5	18	6	243	272	368	640	125	260	12	3	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	3 teams	—	497	466	138	27	7	8	21	45	5	18	6	296	333	436	769	139	311	9	4	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	466	433	111	16	4	7	22	64	4	17	7	256	298	360	659	104	282	14	5	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	466	421	112	19	4	7	34	55	4	17	7	266	327	380	707	114	287	12	7	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	403	373	92	20	3	11	23	64	0	21	5	247	290	405	695	158	266	16	6	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	403	364	102	25	5	10	32	48	0	21	5	280	338	459	797	179	295	12	8	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	41	37	9	0	0	2	4	4	0	1	0	243	317	405	722	162	226	10	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	41	37	9	0	0	2	4	4	0	1	0	243	317	405	722	162	226	10	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	2 teams	—	395	366	71	16	0	8	24	70	4	9	4	194	251	303	555	109	219	18	6	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA	2 teams	—	395	353	81	24	0	9	37	61	4	9	4	229	310	374	684	144	254	15	9	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	475	432	89	17	5	6	27	82	3	3	0	206	258	310	568	104	232	17	6	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	475	421	120	28	6	9	38	58	3	3	0	285	348	444	793	159	302	12	8	343	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	365	327	89	22	1	6	28	55	2	9	3	272	333	401	734	128	303	15	8	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	365	319	95	25	1	8	36	46	2	9	3	298	373	458	830	160	319	13	10	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	3 teams	—	489	445	85	18	5	13	35	91	4	3	0	191	256	342	598	151	208	19	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	3 teams	—	489	430	111	25	6	18	50	67	4	3	0	258	341	470	811	212	266	14	10	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	295	280	47	8	3	4	12	62	1	6	1	168	205	261	465	93	199	21	4	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	295	271	56	10	5	4	21	48	1	6	1	207	266	325	591	118	235	16	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	COL	—	133	122	27	8	0	4	7	23	1	0	1	221	269	385	654	164	237	17	5	281	73	-4	-0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
YTD	32	MLB	COL	—	133	122	27	8	0	4	7	23	1	0	1	221	269	385	654	164	237	17	5	284	76	-4	-0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
ROS	32	MLB	COL	100%	212	194	44	10	1	6	14	42	2	2	1	227	286	381	667	155	252	20	7	288	78	-5	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.3
ROS	32	MLB	COL	100%	212	194	46	11	1	6	14	42	2	2	1	237	295	397	692	160	273	20	7	305	91	-2	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.7
FULL	32	MLB	COL	—	345	316	73	19	1	10	21	65	3	2	2	231	285	392	678	161	258	19	6	296	84	-6	-0	-2	+6	+10	0.8
TOT	32	MLB	COL	—	345	316	71	18	1	10	21	65	3	2	2	225	279	383	662	158	250	19	6	285	76	-9	-0	-2	+6	+10	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	COL	82%	287	265	57	12	2	7	18	58	2	2	1	215	270	355	625	140	247	20	6	279	72	-9	+0	-6	+5	+8	-0.2
2027	33	MLB	COL	82%	235	216	50	11	1	7	15	47	2	2	1	231	288	389	676	157	267	20	6	296	84	-4	+0	-5	+4	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	550	507	116	25	2	15	34	112	4	4	2	229	283	375	657	146	264	20	6	289	80	-13	+0	-9	+23	+16	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	137	30	2	18	40	132	5	5	2	229	283	376	658	147	263	20	6	289	80	-15	+0	-11	+27	+18	2.1
Career	—			—	4707	4373	979	208	30	98	242	795	31	113	32	224	269	352	622	129	249	17	5	267	62	-200	+10	-10	+84	+133	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	136	29	4	14	33	110	4	16	4	225	270	356	626	131	250	17	5	267	62	-28	+2	-1	+12	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	281	265	69	20	3	11	10	35	4	5	0	260	297	483	781	223	264	12	4	338	117	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.5
2016	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	501	470	133	34	0	13	24	70	0	17	4	283	318	438	756	155	305	14	5	330	111	+6	+2	—	—	+14	2.2
2017	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	96	92	25	5	0	0	3	11	1	4	0	272	302	326	628	54	309	11	3	285	76	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2017	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	345	326	98	19	5	8	14	29	2	14	4	301	333	463	797	163	308	8	4	348	125	+10	+1	—	—	+10	2.1
2017	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	56	48	15	3	2	0	4	5	2	0	2	312	389	458	847	146	333	9	7	364	137	+2	-1	—	—	+2	0.3
2018	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	466	421	112	19	4	7	34	55	4	17	7	266	327	380	707	114	287	12	7	314	98	-1	+1	—	—	+13	1.3
2019	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	403	364	102	25	5	10	32	48	0	21	5	280	338	459	797	179	295	12	8	346	123	+10	+2	—	—	+11	2.5
2020	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	41	37	9	0	0	2	4	4	0	1	0	243	317	405	722	162	226	10	10	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2021	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	345	309	69	20	0	9	31	54	4	7	4	223	302	375	678	152	244	16	9	305	91	-3	-0	—	—	+10	0.6
2021	27	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	50	44	12	4	0	0	6	7	0	2	0	273	360	364	724	91	324	14	12	331	112	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	475	421	120	28	6	9	38	58	3	3	0	285	348	444	793	159	302	12	8	343	120	+11	+1	—	—	+13	2.6
2023	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	86	81	17	3	0	1	4	19	0	0	0	210	247	284	531	74	258	22	5	238	41	-6	+0	-2	+7	+2	0.1
2023	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	279	238	78	22	1	7	32	27	2	9	3	328	412	517	929	189	336	10	11	400	164	+20	+1	—	—	+8	2.9
2024	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	17	16	3	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	188	235	375	610	188	182	24	6	270	65	-1	+0	-1	+9	+0	0.8
2024	30	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	453	396	104	25	6	17	49	60	4	3	0	263	350	485	835	222	269	13	11	364	137	+19	+1	—	—	+13	3.3
2024	30	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	19	18	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	222	222	222	444		250	16	0	191	4	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	31	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	295	271	56	10	5	4	21	48	1	6	1	207	266	325	591	118	235	16	7	265	61	-13	+1	—	—	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	103	97	20	3	0	2	5	23	0	0	0	206	245	299	544	93	247	22	5	243	45	-6	+0	-3	+15	+3	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	799	20	7	220	271	358	+14	-3	1.0	1.0
	/162	664	16	6	220	271	358	+11.9	-2.3	0.8	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brett Sullivan (OGILVIE)	32	45	40	50	35	225/279/383	158	250	10	2	19%	6%	76	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→44	45→50	48→45	45	229/279/349	120	274	14	7	22%	6%	74	-0.1	228/278/352	124	318	10	7	30%	6%	74	-0.1	230/279/351	121	336	6	0	32%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Juan Centeno 2022 · MLB	32	49	40→45	49→40	47	236/286/332	96	279	7	6	18%	6%	72	-0.2	230/272/343	113	295	11	6	25%	5%	69	-0.4	226/267/333	107	295	11	3	26%	4%	60	-0.6
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	45	45	47→50	42	227/267/352	126	272	13	9	22%	5%	69	-0.4	229/269/331	102	263	8	12	16%	5%	64	-0.8	252/300/348	96	298	8	15	18%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	46→40	49→40	44	233/276/359	126	274	14	9	21%	5%	75	-0.0	238/277/338	100	281	10	8	19%	4%	69	-0.4	259/286/315	57	300	6	0	16%	1%	63	-0.2
✕Rob Brantly 2021 · AAA	32	48→57	45→50	48→30	47	236/293/357	122	267	12	5	17%	6%	82	+0.5	238/305/344	106	282	10	5	19%	5%	85	+0.7	234/310/322	88	281	7	2	18%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2022 · MLB	31	48→55	47→45	49→50	46	239/277/378	139	256	15	7	14%	5%	80	+0.4	239/285/353	114	260	9	8	12%	6%	76	+0.1	245/293/352	107	262	10	9	11%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	45	47→50	47→50	44	226/284/365	139	286	14	4	26%	6%	80	+0.4	218/259/318	100	285	9	4	26%	4%	56	-1.3	205/237/302	97	277	10	0	29%	3%	39	-1.1
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2017 · MLB	33	44→45	45	46→40	45	223/273/345	122	255	13	5	19%	6%	70	-0.3	198/263/301	103	257	9	4	25%	7%	55	-1.4	174/245/259	85	236	6	1	27%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Mike DiFelice 2001 · MLB	32	47	50	48→30	47	237/285/393	156	266	17	5	18%	6%	88	+0.9	224/280/350	126	271	12	5	21%	6%	75	-0.0	220/283/361	141	261	15	1	21%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Dusty Wathan 2007 · AAA	33	45	47→45	45→40	44	230/294/357	127	269	16	5	21%	5%	83	+0.6	236/296/329	93	287	7	8	19%	5%	76	+0.1	252/314/308	56	309	0	6	17%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Beau Taylor 2022 · MLB	32	43→45	43→45	47→30	44	208/284/314	107	301	11	4	33%	8%	68	-0.5	210/293/322	112	303	12	6	32%	9%	74	-0.1	170/285/261	91	250	11	0	33%	12%	53	-0.5
✕Bryan Holaday 2021 · MLB	33	47	44→45	43→40	50	232/301/350	118	268	12	6	18%	8%	84	+0.6	230/290/403	173	279	21	8	25%	7%	93	+1.3	199/253/410	211	225	28	4	27%	5%	82	+0.1
✕Joe Thurston 2012 · MLB	32	49→58	46→45	47→50	47	244/303/379	135	280	13	10	18%	6%	92	+1.2	236/300/353	117	276	11	11	18%	7%	84	+0.6	242/308/336	93	283	8	10	16%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Wilkin Castillo 2016 · AAA	32	46→56	43→45	51→50	46	228/272/338	110	258	11	10	17%	5%	68	-0.5	207/241/294	87	237	7	7	16%	4%	43	-2.2	194/223/282	88	222	8	5	17%	3%	28	-1.0
✕Brandon Harper 2007 · MLB	31	47	45	50→45	49	232/303/356	124	261	12	9	17%	7%	87	+0.8	202/260/296	94	244	8	8	20%	6%	52	-1.6	159/214/214	55	195	3	3	20%	6%	7	-2.4
✕Anthony Bemboom 2023 · MLB	33	41	46→45	48→45	46	209/278/336	127	264	14	5	26%	8%	70	-0.3	214/282/331	117	278	11	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	202/279/310	107	265	9	1	25%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Wilmer Difo 2023 · MLB	31	47→54	43→45	47→55	46	233/279/343	110	276	11	7	20%	6%	72	-0.2	217/280/321	104	278	10	19	24%	8%	67	-0.5	205/278/298	92	271	9	25	26%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	41→51	48→50	42→45	49	209/270/346	137	236	16	2	20%	7%	69	-0.4	234/289/360	126	284	14	2	22%	7%	81	+0.4	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3