Brett Sullivan

C Colorado Rockies
Age 33 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs MLB HR +30%H +12% Svc 1.640 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202430AAA/INTL2 orgs472.261/.345/.47317366—.203/.265/.357
202430MLBSD17.188/.235/.37510670.8
202531AAAPIT295.207/.266/.3254620—.165/.205/.254
202632MLBCOL237.225/.272/.39071710.0
2027PROJ33MLBCOL199.241/.298/.40662850.2
2028PROJ82% MLB34MLBCOL119.231/.286/.3843076-0.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.640First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.6M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed66
Barrel%17
xwOBA13
Avg EV10
Bat Spd10
Form.226/.275/.352 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .227/.284/.375
CompsRob Brantly (age 33) · Kevan Smith (age 33) · Juan Centeno (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†85
AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .298 / .406
PA199
HR6
K%19
BB%7
BABIP268
ISO169
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -2.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +3.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
110.220
POWER40
Barrel%
174.0
Avg EV
1083.6
Bat Spd
1066.4
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
6628.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%17%▲16% over 38 PA (60d) · proj 18%
BB%6%▼3% over 38 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.126▼.028 over 36 AB (60d) · proj .148
HR/BB2.8%▼0.0% over 30 BBE (60d) · proj 3.6%
BABIP.254·.233 over 30 BIP (60d) · proj .255
SLASH.226/.275/.352▼proj .227/.284/.375
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2023
Service   1.640 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $-0.3M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201521 ROKPrinceton Rays — 281265 6920311 10354 50 260297483781 223264 124 338 49 — — — — — —
201622 ABowling Green Hot Rods — 501470 13334013 24700 174 283318438756 155305 145 330 69 — — — — — —
201723 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 9692 25500 3111 40 272302326628 54309 113 285 60 — — — — — —
201723 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 345326 981958 14292 144 301333463797 163308 84 348 82 — — — — — —
201723 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 5648 15320 452 02 312389458847 146333 97 364 133 — — — — — —
201824 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 466421 1121947 34554 177 266327380707 114287 127 314 74 — — — — — —
201925 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 403364 10225510 32480 215 280338459797 179295 128 346 82 — — — — — —
202026 INTLLeones del Escogido — 4137 9002 440 10 243317405722 162226 1010 324 105 — — — — — —
202127 AAADurham Bulls — 345309 692009 31544 74 223302375678 152244 169 305 47 — — — — — —
202127 INTLLeones del Escogido — 5044 12400 670 20 273360364724 91324 1412 331 110 — — — — — —
202228 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 475421 1202869 38583 30 285348444793 159302 128 343 68 — — — — — —
202329 MLBSan Diego Padres — 8681 17301 4190 00 210247284531 74258 225 238 50 -5 +0 -2 +7 +2 0.1
202329 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 279238 782217 32272 93 328412517929 189336 1011 400 114 — — — — — —
202430 MLBSan Diego Padres — 1716 3001 140 00 188235375610 188182 246 270 67 -1 +0 -1 +9 +0 0.8
202430 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 453396 10425617 49604 30 263350485835 222269 1311 364 68 — — — — — —
202430 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 1918 4000 030 00 222222222444 250 160 191 15 — — — — — —
202531 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 295271 561054 21481 61 207266325591 118235 167 265 20 — — — — — —
202632 MLBColorado Rockies — 237218 491317 13401 12 225272390661 165241 175 287 71 -8 -1 -1 +4 +5 0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 340315 691619 18631 12 219263362625 143243 195 274 71 -12 -1 -3 +19 +7 1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201521 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 281269 511428 6504 50 190219346564 156199 182 240 49 — — — — — —
201622 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 501479 11529010 15940 174 240263363626 123269 193 270 69 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 9693 24500 2141 40 258281312593 54298 152 257 60 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 345330 831748 10402 144 252278400678 148261 123 289 82 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 466432 1081846 23634 177 250294352646 102267 145 278 74 — — — — — —
201925 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 403374 902149 22600 215 241283390673 150255 155 290 82 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 345319 591506 21634 74 185244288533 103212 186 237 47 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 475433 992066 26733 30 229277344621 115244 155 269 68 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 8681 17301 4190 00 210247284531 74258 225 242 50 -5 +0 -2 +7 +2 0.1
202329 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 279248 711915 22332 93 286349431781 145291 128 336 114 — — — — — —
202430 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 1716 3001 140 00 188235375610 188182 246 268 67 -1 +0 -1 +9 +0 0.8
202430 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 453414 8419611 31754 30 203265357623 155214 177 268 68 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 295279 46843 13601 61 165205254459 90192 204 198 20 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 237218 471316 13401 12 216263367630 151241 175 273 71 -8 -1 -1 +4 +5 0.0
201521 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 281269 511428 6504 50 190219346564 156203 182 240 49 — — — — — —
201521 ROK RAWPrinceton Rays — 281265 6920311 10354 50 260297483781 223264 124 338 49 — — — — — —
201622 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 501479 11529010 15940 174 240263363626 123276 193 270 69 — — — — — —
201622 A RAWBowling Green Hot Rods — 501470 13334013 24700 174 283318438756 155305 145 330 69 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLE3 teams — 497473 1202549 14615 186 254283381663 127272 123 282 77 — — — — — —
201723 A+ RAW3 teams — 497466 1382778 21455 186 296333436769 139311 94 338 77 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 466432 1081846 23634 177 250294352646 102276 145 278 74 — — — — — —
201824 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 466421 1121947 34554 177 266327380707 114287 127 314 74 — — — — — —
201925 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 403374 902149 22600 215 241283390673 150260 155 290 82 — — — — — —
201925 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 403364 10225510 32480 215 280338459797 179295 128 346 82 — — — — — —
202026 INTL MLELeones del Escogido — 4137 9002 440 10 243317405722 162226 1010 — — — — — — — —
202026 INTL RAWLeones del Escogido — 4137 9002 440 10 243317405722 162226 1010 324 105 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLE2 teams — 395366 681707 24724 94 186244290533 104213 186 237 47 — — — — — —
202127 AAA RAW2 teams — 395353 812409 37614 94 229310374684 144254 159 308 47 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 475433 992066 26733 30 229277344621 115253 155 269 68 — — — — — —
202228 AAA RAWEl Paso Chihuahuas — 475421 1202869 38583 30 285348444793 159302 128 343 68 — — — — — —
202329 AAA MLE2 teams — 365329 882216 26522 93 267325395720 128294 147 314 99 — — — — — —
202329 AAA RAW2 teams — 365319 952518 36462 93 298373458830 160319 1310 362 99 — — — — — —
202430 AAA MLE3 teams — 489446 8919612 34824 30 200262350612 150216 177 268 68 — — — — — —
202430 AAA RAW3 teams — 489430 11125618 50674 30 258341470811 212266 1410 354 68 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 295279 46843 13601 61 165205254459 90197 204 198 20 — — — — — —
202531 AAA RAWIndianapolis Indians — 295271 561054 21481 61 207266325591 118235 167 265 20 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 237218 471316 13401 12 216263367630 151234 175 273 71 -8 -1 -1 +4 +5 0.0
202632 MLB RAWColorado Rockies — 237218 491317 13401 12 225272390661 165241 175 287 71 -8 -1 -1 +4 +5 0.0
201521 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 281269 511428 6504 50 190219346564 156199 182 240 49 — — — — — —
201622 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 501481 11529010 15940 174 239263362625 123269 193 270 69 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLE3 teams — 497475 1202549 14615 186 253283379661 126269 123 282 77 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 466436 1081846 23634 177 248294349643 101267 145 278 74 — — — — — —
201925 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 403378 902149 22600 215 238283386669 148255 155 290 82 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLE2 teams — 395364 681707 24724 94 187244291535 104212 186 237 47 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 475443 992066 26733 30 223277336613 113244 155 269 68 — — — — — —
202329 AAA MLE2 teams — 365334 882216 26522 93 263325389714 126283 147 314 99 — — — — — —
202430 AAA MLE3 teams — 489448 8919612 34824 30 199262348611 150213 177 268 68 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 295279 46843 13601 61 165205254459 90192 204 198 20 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 237221 471316 13401 12 213263362625 149241 175 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202430 AAA MLE3 teams — 489448 8919612 34824 30 199262348611 150213 177 268 68 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 295279 46843 13601 61 165205254459 90192 204 198 20 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 237221 471316 13401 12 213263362625 149241 175 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLECOL 100% 309283 651428 21572 41 228286375661 148255 187 293 85 -6 +0 -3 +6 +7 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXCOL 100% 199183 44926 13371 21 241298406704 166268 197 310 85 -4 +0 -2 +4 +4 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLECOL 82% 145134 30614 9281 10 218275355630 136248 196 281 76 -4 +0 -6 +3 +3 -0.5
202834 MLB CTXCOL 82% 119109 25513 8231 00 231286384670 153260 197 297 76 -3 +0 -5 +2 +3 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 459424 9421212 26862 12 222270366635 144248 196 280 67 -15 -1 -9 +22 +10 0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 13430317 371223 13 223272368640 145250 196 280 67 -21 -1 -12 +31 +14 1.1
Career— MLE — 47894452 10012213493 24277630 11333 225269352622 128249 165 267 67 -19 -0 -12 +26 +15 0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650604 13730513 331054 154 227271358629 131251 165 267 67 -18 -0 -11 +24 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 295 PAwOBA .260 → .198 (−62)K% 16.3% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.27%÷0.965×1.200——20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.12%÷1.112×0.690—×0.9624.25%
HBP% /PA0.34%—×0.940—×0.9620.31%
Singles /BIP16.59%÷1.008×0.930×0.950×0.96214.00%
Doubles /BIP4.48%÷0.995×0.830×0.950×0.9623.42%
Triples /BIP2.24%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×0.9621.73%
Home runs /BIP1.79%÷0.915×0.700—×0.9621.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .260 → .198; ISO .118 → .089; BABIP .235 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 453 PAwOBA .357 → .268 (−89)K% 13.2% → 16.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.25%÷0.961×1.200——16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.60%÷1.026×0.690—×0.9726.92%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.940—×0.9720.81%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.025×0.930×0.950×0.97213.97%
Doubles /BIP7.44%÷1.053×0.830×0.950×0.9725.42%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷0.996×0.970×0.950×0.9721.61%
Home runs /BIP5.06%÷1.078×0.700—×0.9723.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .357 → .268; ISO .222 → .158; BABIP .269 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 279 PAwOBA .399 → .336 (−63)K% 9.7% → 11.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.68%÷0.985×1.200——11.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷0.963×0.690—×0.9827.81%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.940—×0.9820.66%
Singles /BIP22.75%÷0.958×0.930×0.955×0.98220.71%
Doubles /BIP10.43%÷0.975×0.830×0.955×0.9828.32%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.150×0.970×0.955×0.9820.37%
Home runs /BIP3.32%÷1.052×0.700—×0.9822.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .399 → .336; ISO .189 → .146; BABIP .336 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 475 PAwOBA .342 → .269 (−73)K% 12.2% → 15.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.21%÷0.959×1.200——15.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.79%÷0.990×0.690—×0.9925.38%
HBP% /PA0.63%—×0.940—×0.9920.59%
Singles /BIP21.21%÷1.047×0.930×0.961×0.99217.97%
Doubles /BIP7.71%÷1.133×0.830×0.961×0.9925.39%
Triples /BIP1.65%÷1.002×0.970×0.961×0.9921.53%
Home runs /BIP2.48%÷1.138×0.700—×0.9921.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .342 → .269; ISO .159 → .115; BABIP .302 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 345 PAwOBA .297 → .237 (−60)K% 15.7% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.65%÷1.029×1.200——18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.99%÷1.016×0.690—×1.0036.12%
HBP% /PA1.16%—×0.940—×1.0031.09%
Singles /BIP15.69%÷0.945×0.930×0.960×1.00314.87%
Doubles /BIP7.84%÷1.067×0.830×0.960×1.0035.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.960×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP3.53%÷1.059×0.700—×1.0032.34%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .297 → .237; ISO .152 → .107; BABIP .244 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 403 PAwOBA .341 → .290 (−51)K% 11.9% → 14.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.91%÷0.985×1.220——14.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷0.963×0.680—×0.9985.42%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP19.62%÷0.978×0.920×0.950×0.99817.50%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷1.028×0.910×0.950×0.9986.64%
Triples /BIP1.58%÷1.150×0.880×0.950×0.9981.15%
Home runs /BIP3.16%÷0.920×0.800—×0.9982.75%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .290; ISO .179 → .152; BABIP .295 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 466 PAwOBA .310 → .278 (−32)K% 11.8% → 13.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.80%÷1.055×1.220——13.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.30%÷1.031×0.680—×1.0124.87%
HBP% /PA0.86%—×0.840—×1.0120.73%
Singles /BIP22.40%÷0.965×0.920×0.981×1.01221.21%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷1.007×0.910×0.981×1.0124.66%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷1.010×0.880×0.981×1.0120.95%
Home runs /BIP1.91%÷0.984×0.800—×1.0121.57%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .310 → .278; ISO .114 → .101; BABIP .287 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 345 PAwOBA .340 → .289 (−51)K% 8.4% → 11.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.41%÷1.017×1.420——11.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.77%÷0.967×0.750—×0.9982.92%
HBP% /PA0.58%—×0.930—×0.9980.54%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.073×0.920×0.973×0.99818.49%
Doubles /BIP6.40%÷1.007×0.960×0.973×0.9985.92%
Triples /BIP1.68%÷1.024×0.810×0.973×0.9981.29%
Home runs /BIP2.69%÷0.917×0.880—×0.9982.58%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .340 → .289; ISO .163 → .146; BABIP .308 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .