Rob Brantly

C Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 38 L/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 15.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	34	AAATOR	177	.271/.397/.361	1	75	—	.227/.333/.300
2024	35	AAATB	179	.250/.315/.394	5	51	—	.205/.258/.301
2025	36	AAAScranton/Wilk…	45	.349/.378/.558	1	89	—	.273/.289/.432
2027PROJ10% MLB	38	MLBNYY	8	.230/.298/.377	0	88	0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBNYY	0	.220/.285/.351	0	77	—

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service15.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

K%76

Whiff%56

Z-Con%53

Max EV35

BB%11

Chase%6

CompsMiguel Olivo (age 38) · Iker Franco (age 38) · Tom Lampkin (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .298 / .377

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP284

ISO123

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

POWER—

Bat Spd

3669.9

SPEED—

Sprint

1025.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 15.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$1M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	21	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	217	188	48	10	1	1	23	22	5	2	2	255	352	335	687	80	285	10	11	317	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	155	146	32	6	0	3	5	17	0	0	0	219	245	322	567	103	223	11	3	247	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	317	284	86	16	1	7	24	39	5	2	2	303	367	440	808	137	331	12	8	357	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	50	49	19	5	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	388	400	490	890	102	404	4	2	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	113	100	29	8	0	3	13	16	0	1	1	290	372	460	832	170	321	14	12	371	138	+5	-0	-4	+9	+2	1.3
2012	23	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	193	182	52	8	0	2	8	34	2	0	0	286	323	363	686	77	340	18	4	308	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	195	180	56	16	1	3	12	17	2	0	3	311	361	461	822	150	329	9	6	363	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	243	223	47	9	0	1	15	53	2	0	0	211	267	265	531	54	267	22	6	243	53	-13	+0	-7	+6	+5	-1.0
2013	24	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	74	70	13	3	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	186	219	271	491	86	197	11	4	219	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	392	364	93	15	2	4	20	61	1	0	0	255	296	341	637	85	291	16	5	282	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	36	33	4	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	121	171	242	414	121	120	22	6	183	9	-4	+0	-2	+4	+1	-0.0
2015	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	94	86	25	3	0	4	5	17	0	0	0	291	330	465	795	174	309	18	5	340	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	121	117	38	6	1	4	3	14	1	0	1	325	347	496	843	171	343	12	2	371	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	315	303	74	13	1	14	8	53	2	0	1	244	268	432	701	188	253	17	3	305	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	39	35	4	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	114	184	143	327	29	125	10	8	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	36	31	9	1	0	2	3	14	2	0	0	290	389	516	905	226	467	39	8	401	156	+2	+0	+0	+6	+1	1.0
2017	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	321	287	84	11	1	10	20	39	9	3	3	293	358	443	800	150	305	12	6	353	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	246	229	48	11	0	2	8	49	6	0	0	210	255	284	539	74	254	20	3	244	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	272	236	74	13	2	6	32	29	4	0	0	314	404	462	866	148	338	11	12	388	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL	Toros del Este	—	36	34	6	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	176	222	176	399		240	25	6	190	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	21	20	3	1	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	150	190	200	390	50	188	19	0	182	10	-2	+0	-1	+5	+0	0.2
2021	32	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	228	66	9	1	9	20	41	14	1	0	289	382	456	838	167	317	16	8	374	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	201	182	49	10	1	1	11	32	7	1	0	269	335	352	687	82	320	16	5	313	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	177	144	39	10	0	1	18	21	12	0	0	271	397	361	758	90	304	12	10	348	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	179	160	40	6	1	5	12	35	4	0	0	250	315	394	708	144	289	20	7	315	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	43	15	6	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	349	378	558	936	209	412	18	4	409	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	449	407	92	20	0	7	33	95	5	1	1	226	292	327	619	101	275	21	7	280	76	-13	-0	-13	+31	+10	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	217	194	43	8	1	1	17	31	5	2	2	222	301	289	590	67	258	14	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	155	147	30	6	0	3	4	25	0	0	0	204	225	306	531	102	210	16	3	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	317	294	78	14	1	6	14	55	5	2	2	265	310	381	691	116	299	17	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	113	102	30	9	0	3	11	16	0	1	1	294	363	471	833	176	321	14	10	372	138	+5	-0	-4	+9	+2	1.3
2012	23	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	193	184	48	7	0	2	6	43	2	0	0	261	292	332	623	71	328	22	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	195	183	54	14	1	2	9	22	2	0	3	295	335	415	750	120	318	11	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	243	224	49	10	0	1	14	53	2	0	0	219	271	277	548	58	267	22	6	247	53	-13	+0	-7	+6	+5	-1.0
2013	24	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	74	71	13	3	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	183	205	268	473	85	186	14	3	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	392	370	84	13	2	3	14	78	1	0	0	227	257	297	554	70	266	20	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	36	33	4	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	121	171	242	414	121	120	22	6	181	9	-4	+0	-2	+4	+1	-0.0
2015	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	94	88	22	2	0	3	3	21	0	0	0	250	275	375	650	125	275	22	3	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	121	118	33	6	1	3	2	17	1	0	1	280	298	424	721	144	297	14	2	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	315	306	64	11	1	12	5	66	2	0	1	209	227	369	596	160	223	21	2	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	36	31	9	1	0	2	3	14	2	0	0	290	389	516	905	226	467	39	8	399	156	+2	+0	+0	+6	+1	1.0
2017	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	321	294	71	9	1	7	13	49	9	3	3	241	294	350	645	109	258	15	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	246	231	42	9	0	1	6	58	6	0	0	182	222	234	456	52	232	24	2	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	272	248	64	10	2	6	20	35	4	0	0	258	324	387	711	129	275	13	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	21	20	3	1	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	150	190	200	390	50	188	19	0	183	10	-2	+0	-1	+5	+0	0.2
2021	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	235	56	8	1	5	13	50	14	1	0	238	317	345	661	106	274	19	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	201	186	42	8	1	1	7	38	7	1	0	226	280	296	576	70	270	19	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	177	150	34	8	0	1	12	26	12	0	0	227	333	300	633	73	247	15	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	179	166	34	5	1	3	8	41	4	0	0	205	258	301	560	96	243	23	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	44	12	4	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	273	289	432	721	159	335	22	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	217	194	43	8	1	1	17	31	5	2	2	222	301	289	590	67	259	14	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	217	188	48	10	1	1	23	22	5	2	2	255	352	335	687	80	285	10	11	317	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	522	490	119	22	1	10	19	88	5	2	2	243	278	353	631	110	275	17	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	522	479	137	27	1	10	30	58	5	2	2	286	335	409	744	123	305	11	6	328	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	501	469	132	30	1	7	26	81	4	1	4	281	325	394	719	113	326	16	5	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	501	462	137	32	1	8	33	67	4	1	4	297	349	422	771	126	332	13	7	344	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	295	61	13	0	2	16	63	2	0	0	207	252	271	524	64	253	20	5	233	44	-21	+0	-7	+6	+7	-1.6
2013	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	317	293	60	12	0	2	18	61	2	0	0	205	256	266	522	61	249	19	6	237	44	-21	+0	-7	+6	+7	-1.6
2014	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	392	370	84	13	2	3	14	78	1	0	0	227	257	297	554	70	274	20	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA RAW	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	392	364	93	15	2	4	20	61	1	0	0	255	296	341	637	85	291	16	5	282	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	251	239	57	9	1	6	7	46	1	0	1	238	263	360	623	121	267	18	3	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AA RAW	3 teams	—	251	236	67	10	1	9	10	39	1	0	1	284	316	449	765	165	302	16	4	332	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	354	343	71	12	1	13	6	74	2	0	1	207	225	362	587	155	225	21	2	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	354	338	78	14	1	14	11	57	2	0	1	231	259	402	662	172	238	16	3	289	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	357	325	80	10	1	9	16	63	11	3	3	246	304	366	670	120	275	18	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	357	318	93	12	1	12	23	53	11	3	3	292	361	450	810	157	314	15	6	358	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	246	231	42	9	0	1	6	58	6	0	0	182	222	234	456	52	234	24	2	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	246	229	48	11	0	2	8	49	6	0	0	210	255	284	539	74	254	20	3	244	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	308	282	72	11	2	7	22	39	4	0	0	255	318	383	701	128	275	13	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	308	270	80	13	2	6	34	38	4	0	0	296	383	426	809	130	327	12	11	365	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	285	255	59	9	1	5	13	54	15	1	0	231	307	333	641	102	273	19	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	285	248	69	10	1	9	20	45	15	1	0	278	367	435	803	157	306	16	7	360	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	201	186	42	8	1	1	7	38	7	1	0	226	280	296	576	70	277	19	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	201	182	49	10	1	1	11	32	7	1	0	269	335	352	687	82	320	16	5	313	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	177	150	34	8	0	1	12	26	12	0	0	227	333	300	633	73	262	15	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	177	144	39	10	0	1	18	21	12	0	0	271	397	361	758	90	304	12	10	348	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	179	166	34	5	1	3	8	41	4	0	0	205	258	301	560	96	252	23	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	179	160	40	6	1	5	12	35	4	0	0	250	315	394	708	144	289	20	7	315	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	44	12	4	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	273	289	432	721	159	333	22	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	43	15	6	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	349	378	558	936	209	412	18	4	409	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	217	193	43	8	1	1	17	31	5	2	2	223	301	290	591	67	258	14	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	522	493	119	22	1	10	19	88	5	2	2	241	278	351	629	110	270	17	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	501	466	132	30	1	7	26	81	4	1	4	283	325	397	722	114	323	16	5	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	317	296	61	13	0	2	16	63	2	0	0	206	252	270	523	64	248	20	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	392	374	84	13	2	3	14	78	1	0	0	225	257	294	551	70	266	20	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	251	241	57	9	1	6	7	46	1	0	1	237	263	357	620	120	263	18	3	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	354	343	71	12	1	13	6	74	2	0	1	207	225	362	587	155	223	21	2	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	357	327	80	10	1	9	16	63	11	3	3	245	304	364	668	119	279	18	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	246	232	42	9	0	1	6	58	6	0	0	181	222	233	455	52	232	24	2	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	308	279	72	11	2	7	22	39	4	0	0	258	318	387	705	129	275	13	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	285	255	59	9	1	5	13	54	15	1	0	231	307	333	641	102	268	19	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	201	185	42	8	1	1	7	38	7	1	0	227	280	297	577	70	270	19	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	177	151	34	8	0	1	12	26	12	0	0	225	333	298	631	73	247	15	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	179	165	34	5	1	3	8	41	4	0	0	206	258	303	561	97	243	23	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	44	12	4	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	273	289	432	721	159	335	22	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	35	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	179	165	34	5	1	3	8	41	4	0	0	206	258	303	561	97	243	23	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	45	44	12	4	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	273	289	432	721	159	335	22	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	38	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	124	113	26	5	1	3	9	31	1	2	1	229	296	370	666	141	283	25	7	298	88	-2	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	38	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	230	298	377	674	146	284	25	12	301	88	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	80	73	16	3	0	2	6	20	1	1	0	219	284	345	629	126	274	25	8	282	77	-2	+0	-9	+1	+2	-0.8
2028	39	MLB CTX	NYY	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	220	285	351	636	131	274	—	—	285	77	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	449	407	92	20	0	7	33	95	5	1	1	226	292	327	619	101	275	21	7	280	69	-13	-0	-13	+31	+10	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	133	29	0	10	48	138	7	1	1	226	292	326	618	100	275	21	7	280	69	-19	-0	-18	+44	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4512	4185	974	177	13	74	202	830	81	13	13	233	281	334	616	102	271	18	4	270	69	-16	+0	-22	+33	+13	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	140	25	2	11	29	120	12	2	2	232	281	335	616	103	270	18	4	270	69	-17	+0	-23	+36	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 45 PAwOBA .398 → .300 (−98)K% 17.8% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.78%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.67%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷1.008	×0.930	—	×0.940	19.82%
Doubles /BIP	17.14%	÷1.020	×0.830	—	×0.940	13.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .398 → .300; ISO .209 → .145; BABIP .412 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 179 PAwOBA .308 → .243 (−65)K% 19.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.55%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.70%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.48%
HBP% /PA	2.23%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.97%
Singles /BIP	22.40%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.979	×0.940	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	4.80%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.979	×0.940	3.69%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.979	×0.940	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .308 → .243; ISO .144 → .100; BABIP .289 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 177 PAwOBA .346 → .279 (−67)K% 11.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.86%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	14.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.17%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.70%
HBP% /PA	6.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	5.99%
Singles /BIP	22.76%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.976	×0.940	19.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.976	×0.940	6.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.976	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.81%	÷0.916	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .346 → .279; ISO .090 → .069; BABIP .304 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 201 PAwOBA .306 → .248 (−58)K% 15.9% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.92%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.47%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.942	3.34%
HBP% /PA	3.48%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	3.08%
Singles /BIP	24.67%	÷1.047	×0.930	×1.021	×0.942	21.06%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.988	×0.830	×1.021	×0.942	5.38%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.021	×0.942	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	0.67%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .306 → .248; ISO .082 → .065; BABIP .320 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 264 PAwOBA .365 → .294 (−72)K% 15.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.53%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	18.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.20%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.86%
HBP% /PA	5.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	4.75%
Singles /BIP	25.13%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.983	×0.952	22.46%
Doubles /BIP	4.81%	÷0.915	×0.830	×0.983	×0.952	4.09%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.983	×0.952	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	4.81%	÷1.149	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.79%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .365 → .294; ISO .167 → .110; BABIP .317 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 272 PAwOBA .374 → .310 (−63)K% 10.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.66%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	12.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.29%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.28%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.34%
Singles /BIP	25.60%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	21.30%
Doubles /BIP	6.28%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	4.66%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.061	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.972	2.73%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 112, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .374 → .310; ISO .148 → .131; BABIP .338 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColumbus Clippers · 246 PAwOBA .240 → .208 (−32)K% 19.9% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.92%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	23.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.25%	÷0.972	×0.690	—	×0.982	2.27%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.25%
Singles /BIP	19.44%	÷0.974	×0.930	×1.001	×0.982	18.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.11%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.001	×0.982	5.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.001	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.11%	÷1.135	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.81%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .240 → .208; ISO .074 → .059; BABIP .254 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 321 PAwOBA .349 → .286 (−63)K% 12.1% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.15%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.23%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.23%
HBP% /PA	2.80%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.61%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.012	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	21.64%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	3.62%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.077	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	4.03%	÷1.150	×0.840	—	×0.992	2.92%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .286; ISO .150 → .114; BABIP .305 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gerald Lairdlast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	37	21	244	305	354	+48	-40	3.7	5.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.9	-9.8	0.9	pk7: 7
#2Johnny Oates'70-'81 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,820 PA	2.7	1,820	14	11	248*	306*	343*	+32	+0	2.7	3.3
/162	664	5	4	+11.9	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 4
#3Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Ron Brand'63-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,500 PA	2.3	1,500	3	20	239*	307*	306*	+22	+1	2.2	2.2
/162	664	1	9	+9.8	+0.4	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.7	444	6	2	233	295	331	+4	-4	0.7	0.7
/162	664	9	3	+6.7	-6.3	1.1	pk7: 1
#6Gary Bennett'95-'08 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,876 PA	2.8	1,876	22	6	232*	290*	317*	+33	+0	0.1	0.5
/162	664	8	2	+11.8	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rob Brantly (OGILVIE)	38	—	—	—	—	227/294/367	140	283	2	2	25%	8%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Olivo 2016 · MLB	38	46→50	46→60	49→50	38	230/274/361	131	312	14	12	30%	5%	78	-0.3	203/242/318	115	298	12	9	35%	5%	55	-1.9	183/215/296	114	267	12	2	36%	4%	38	-1.7
✕Iker Franco 2019 · AAA	38	47	44→50	47→40	45	231/286/340	109	288	12	8	24%	7%	77	-0.3	210/260/333	123	270	14	9	27%	6%	66	-1.1	156/195/247	91	190	13	0	26%	5%	19	-0.9
✕Tom Lampkin 2002 · MLB	38	46	51→50	49→45	50	237/312/399	162	259	19	5	17%	8%	101	+1.4	228/305/379	151	256	18	8	18%	9%	94	+0.9	208/291/352	144	228	18	7	18%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Kelly Stinnett 2007 · MLB	37	46	48→50	47→40	42	234/289/368	134	298	17	5	27%	6%	86	+0.3	206/258/320	114	260	13	6	25%	6%	62	-1.4	153/195/225	72	189	9	0	25%	4%	15	-1.6
✕Jose Luis Sandoval 2008 · AAA	38	50→49	45	49→40	47	249/299/375	126	285	13	4	18%	6%	90	+0.6	235/281/333	98	273	9	5	17%	5%	74	-0.6	230/275/318	87	266	8	3	16%	5%	67	-0.6
✕A.J. Ellis 2018 · MLB	37	45→54	48→45	45→40	54	228/311/370	143	252	17	5	18%	9%	95	+0.9	247/334/371	124	299	12	6	20%	11%	103	+1.5	266/370/339	73	343	3	0	20%	14%	109	+0.6
✕Tom Prince 2002 · MLB	37	46	48→50	49→45	48	232/301/374	142	264	17	9	20%	7%	91	+0.7	232/312/390	158	258	18	9	18%	8%	99	+1.3	215/311/377	162	240	16	4	18%	9%	97	+0.3
✕Jonathan Aceves 2016 · AAA	38	43	44→50	47→30	45	215/272/325	110	256	12	3	22%	6%	69	-0.9	233/297/349	116	281	12	4	21%	7%	84	+0.1	234/301/346	112	281	12	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Mike DiFelice 2007 · MLB	38	42	44→50	43→30	46	210/278/327	117	263	12	4	25%	7%	72	-0.7	214/265/309	95	283	9	4	27%	5%	62	-1.4	207/251/287	80	276	7	0	27%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Angel Berroa 2015 · AAA	38	49→56	49→50	42→50	40	246/291/392	146	290	17	6	22%	4%	92	+0.7	237/283/370	133	280	15	8	21%	4%	83	+0.1	227/262/329	102	258	11	3	17%	3%	63	-0.4
✕Stephen Vogt 2022 · MLB	37	42→52	50→60	47→40	51	217/290/375	159	255	18	4	23%	9%	87	+0.4	211/285/372	161	251	20	6	24%	9%	85	+0.2	165/243/330	165	179	24	3	25%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Ernie Young 2007 · AAA	38	48→50	49→45	43→40	47	238/314/382	144	304	17	6	27%	8%	98	+1.2	211/276/336	125	273	15	5	28%	7%	74	-0.6	173/235/274	102	219	14	0	28%	6%	41	-2.1
✕Curtis Pride 2006 · MLB	37	47	46→45	51→55	48	232/298/368	136	299	12	15	26%	8%	88	+0.5	227/300/344	117	318	10	20	29%	9%	84	+0.1	219/298/322	103	313	9	24	30%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Adan Amezcua 2012 · AAA	38	51	42→45	42→45	48	245/300/353	109	286	9	6	18%	7%	85	+0.2	229/292/345	116	272	11	6	19%	6%	81	-0.1	213/280/319	105	254	9	3	19%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Miguel Ojeda 2012 · AAA	37	48→45	43→45	43→45	50	233/294/342	109	267	11	7	18%	8%	80	-0.1	226/280/330	104	281	9	8	22%	6%	73	-0.6	217/268/310	92	274	8	6	23%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Daniel Murphy 2023 · MLB	38	47→57	48→60	49→50	48	237/293/378	141	268	16	9	19%	7%	89	+0.5	238/301/343	105	270	10	7	15%	8%	84	+0.1	240/298/291	51	275	2	0	13%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Karim Garcia 2014 · AAA	38	46→49	51→60	48→50	41	239/279/390	151	289	20	9	25%	5%	86	+0.3	212/248/336	124	253	15	5	23%	5%	62	-1.4	191/226/300	109	223	14	0	22%	4%	44	-1.2
✕Erik Kratz 2018 · MLB	38	39→44	45→60	49→45	42	199/255/318	120	246	13	7	25%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/356	134	256	16	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	217/270/350	134	238	18	2	18%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Henry Blanco 2011 · MLB	39	47	46→50	48→40	50	235/296/360	125	274	14	5	20%	8%	85	+0.2	223/288/385	162	257	20	6	22%	8%	89	+0.5	185/266/364	180	194	25	0	22%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Adan Munoz 2016 · AAA	38	45→55	41→50	46→45	42	221/260/319	98	263	9	3	20%	4%	62	-1.4	224/261/322	98	270	10	4	21%	4%	63	-1.4	226/257/311	85	271	10	1	21%	3%	58	-1.0

Rob Brantly

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps