Nick Senzel

3B Oklahoma City Comets

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 217 lbs AAA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBCWS	267	.195/.282/.331	7	1	72	-0.7
2025	30	AAALAD	411	.252/.347/.408	12	7	71	—	.221/.285/.340
2026	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	121	.194/.308/.282	2	2	40	—	.148/.211/.205
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBLAD	12	.218/.286/.343	0	0	79	-0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBLAD	105	.210/.277/.326	2	0	72	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Speed46

xwOBA43

Bat Spd26

Barrel%21

Avg EV15

CompsMario Lisson (age 32) · Issmael Salas (age 32) · Joshua Rodriguez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8279vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .286 / .343

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO116

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

xAVG

390.242

POWER45

Barrel%

214.4

Avg EV

1586.4

Bat Spd

2668.8

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2024 · 267 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

193

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

287

272

◀L

ISO

185

117

◀◀L

BABIP

173

259

▶▶R

13.5%

26.4%

◀◀L

BB%

10.8%

9.8%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	251	210	69	23	3	7	32	49	2	15	7	329	419	567	985	238	392	20	13	420	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	41	33	5	1	0	0	6	5	1	3	0	152	300	182	482	30	172	12	15	240	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	235	209	71	14	1	10	26	43	0	5	4	340	413	560	973	220	391	18	11	426	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	272	246	75	26	2	4	23	54	3	9	2	305	371	476	847	171	378	20	8	375	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	193	171	53	12	2	6	19	39	1	8	2	310	382	509	891	199	367	20	10	388	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	414	375	96	20	4	12	30	101	3	14	5	256	312	427	739	171	319	24	7	325	102	+1	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.3
2019	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	38	35	9	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	257	316	371	687	114	381	34	8	310	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	78	70	13	6	0	2	6	15	0	2	1	186	247	357	604	171	204	19	8	264	62	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2021	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	124	111	28	4	0	1	12	16	0	2	5	252	325	315	641	63	284	13	10	294	83	-3	-2	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2021	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	39	35	10	3	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	286	316	429	744	143	294	5	5	315	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	420	373	86	13	0	5	30	76	5	8	5	231	290	306	596	75	276	18	7	270	66	-17	-0	-2	+1	+9	-0.9
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	330	301	71	10	0	13	26	74	1	6	2	236	299	399	697	163	269	22	8	310	91	-4	+0	-8	+1	+7	-0.3
2023	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	70	58	13	3	1	1	9	15	2	4	0	224	343	362	705	138	286	21	13	322	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	267	236	46	11	0	7	28	61	1	1	3	195	282	331	612	136	232	23	10	278	72	-9	-1	-3	+1	+6	-0.7
2025	30	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	353	89	15	2	12	45	76	6	7	1	252	347	408	754	156	283	18	11	335	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	96	84	15	2	0	2	11	20	0	0	0	179	274	274	547	95	206	21	11	254	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	25	19	5	1	0	0	5	5	1	2	1	263	440	316	756	53	357	20	20	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1633	1466	340	64	4	40	132	343	10	33	21	232	297	363	660	131	275	21	8	295	86	-28	-2	-12	+6	+35	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	251	223	57	19	2	5	21	68	2	15	7	256	325	426	751	170	330	27	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	41	35	4	1	0	0	4	7	1	3	0	114	225	143	368	29	136	17	10	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	235	218	65	14	1	6	17	54	0	5	4	298	349	454	803	156	368	23	7	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	272	252	65	23	2	3	17	77	3	9	2	258	312	401	713	143	355	28	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	193	176	48	10	2	5	14	49	1	8	2	273	330	438	767	165	340	25	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	414	380	95	20	4	11	30	101	3	14	5	250	310	411	720	161	319	24	7	319	102	+1	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.3
2019	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	38	36	8	1	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	222	263	333	596	111	356	42	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	78	71	13	6	0	2	6	15	0	2	1	183	247	352	599	169	204	19	8	260	62	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	124	111	28	4	0	1	12	16	0	2	5	252	325	315	641	63	284	13	10	290	83	-3	-2	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2021	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	39	37	10	3	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	270	289	405	695	135	278	8	3	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	420	382	86	13	0	5	30	76	5	8	5	225	290	298	589	73	276	18	7	266	66	-17	-0	-2	+1	+9	-0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	330	301	70	10	0	12	26	74	1	6	2	233	296	385	681	153	269	22	8	302	91	-4	+0	-8	+1	+7	-0.3
2023	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	70	62	12	3	1	1	6	18	2	4	0	194	286	323	608	129	251	26	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	267	238	46	11	0	7	27	61	1	1	3	193	278	328	606	134	232	23	10	274	72	-9	-1	-3	+1	+6	-0.7
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	371	82	13	2	9	27	90	6	7	1	221	285	340	624	119	252	22	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	96	88	13	2	0	1	7	24	0	0	0	148	211	205	415	57	175	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	259	62	20	2	5	24	75	3	18	7	239	311	390	701	151	310	26	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	292	243	74	24	3	7	38	54	3	18	7	305	402	514	917	210	358	18	13	394	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	470	129	36	3	9	34	131	3	14	6	274	327	421	749	147	364	26	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	507	455	146	40	3	14	49	97	3	14	6	321	391	514	905	193	384	19	10	399	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	193	176	48	10	2	5	14	49	1	8	2	273	330	438	767	165	347	25	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	193	171	53	12	2	6	19	39	1	8	2	310	382	509	891	199	367	20	10	388	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	416	103	21	4	12	32	117	3	14	5	248	306	404	710	156	316	26	7	313	98	-1	+1	+1	+2	+10	1.2
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	452	410	105	21	4	13	33	114	3	14	5	256	313	422	735	166	324	25	7	324	98	-1	+1	+1	+2	+10	1.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	78	71	13	6	0	2	6	15	0	2	1	183	247	352	599	169	200	19	8	260	62	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	78	70	13	6	0	2	6	15	0	2	1	186	247	357	604	171	204	19	8	264	62	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	163	148	38	7	1	1	13	19	0	2	5	257	317	338	655	81	285	12	8	294	85	-3	-2	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	163	146	38	7	1	1	14	18	0	2	5	260	323	342	665	82	287	11	9	299	85	-3	-2	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	420	382	86	13	0	5	30	76	5	8	5	225	290	298	589	73	268	18	7	266	66	-17	-0	-2	+1	+9	-0.9
2022	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	420	373	86	13	0	5	30	76	5	8	5	231	290	306	596	75	276	18	7	270	66	-17	-0	-2	+1	+9	-0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	400	363	82	13	1	13	32	92	3	10	2	226	294	375	669	149	265	23	8	295	85	-7	+1	-8	+1	+9	-0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	400	359	84	13	1	14	35	89	3	10	2	234	307	393	699	159	271	22	9	312	85	-7	+1	-8	+1	+9	-0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	267	238	46	11	0	7	27	61	1	1	3	193	278	328	606	134	229	23	10	274	72	-9	-1	-3	+1	+6	-0.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	267	236	46	11	0	7	28	61	1	1	3	195	282	331	612	136	232	23	10	278	72	-9	-1	-3	+1	+6	-0.7
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	371	82	13	2	9	27	90	6	7	1	221	285	340	624	119	262	22	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	353	89	15	2	12	45	76	6	7	1	252	347	408	754	156	283	18	11	335	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	121	110	16	2	0	2	9	30	1	2	1	145	217	218	435	73	177	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	121	103	20	3	0	2	16	25	1	2	1	194	308	282	590	87	234	21	13	277	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	263	62	20	2	5	24	75	3	18	7	236	311	384	695	148	303	26	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	465	129	36	3	9	34	131	3	14	6	277	327	426	753	148	361	26	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	193	176	48	10	2	5	14	49	1	8	2	273	330	438	767	165	340	25	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	414	103	21	4	12	32	117	3	14	5	249	306	406	712	157	322	26	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	78	72	13	6	0	2	6	15	0	2	1	181	247	347	594	167	204	19	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	163	149	38	7	1	1	13	19	0	2	5	255	317	336	652	81	283	12	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	420	382	86	13	0	5	30	76	5	8	5	225	290	298	589	73	276	18	7	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	400	362	82	13	1	13	32	92	3	10	2	227	294	376	670	149	265	23	8	295	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	267	237	46	11	0	7	27	61	1	1	3	194	278	329	607	135	232	23	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	375	82	13	2	9	27	90	6	7	1	219	285	336	621	117	252	22	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	121	110	16	2	0	2	9	30	1	2	1	145	217	218	435	73	175	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	267	237	46	11	0	7	27	61	1	1	3	194	278	329	607	135	232	23	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	411	375	82	13	2	9	27	90	6	7	1	219	285	336	621	117	252	22	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	121	110	16	2	0	2	9	30	1	2	1	145	217	218	435	73	175	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	LAD	10%	200	181	41	7	1	5	15	45	2	3	1	221	288	347	635	125	266	22	8	285	79	-5	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	LAD	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	218	286	343	629	125	260	25	8	283	79	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	105	95	19	3	0	2	8	24	1	0	0	213	279	329	608	116	259	23	8	274	72	-4	+0	-5	+0	+2	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	105	95	19	3	0	2	8	24	1	0	0	210	277	326	602	115	254	23	8	272	72	-4	+0	-5	+0	+2	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1738	1561	359	67	4	42	140	367	11	33	21	230	295	359	654	129	274	21	8	293	84	-32	-2	-17	+7	+38	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	134	25	1	16	52	137	4	12	8	229	294	358	652	128	272	21	8	293	84	-12	-1	-6	+3	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3533	3211	748	159	15	75	266	807	28	88	38	233	297	362	659	129	286	23	8	292	84	-35	-1	-18	+7	+40	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	138	29	3	14	49	148	5	16	7	234	298	364	661	130	286	23	8	292	84	-12	-0	-6	+3	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 96 PAwOBA .250 → .192 (−58)K% 20.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.46%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.19%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.973	×0.962	14.96%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.973	×0.962	2.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.973	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .250 → .192; ISO .095 → .067; BABIP .206 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 411 PAwOBA .331 → .273 (−58)K% 18.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.49%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.63%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.33%
Singles /BIP	21.66%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.975	×0.972	20.07%
Doubles /BIP	5.42%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.975	×0.972	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.975	×0.972	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	4.33%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .331 → .273; ISO .156 → .121; BABIP .283 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 70 PAwOBA .314 → .259 (−55)K% 21.4% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	25.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.86%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.86%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.66%
Singles /BIP	18.60%	÷0.998	×0.930	×0.970	×0.992	16.68%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.970	×0.992	5.94%
Triples /BIP	2.33%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.970	×0.992	2.08%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .314 → .259; ISO .138 → .112; BABIP .286 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 39 PAwOBA .315 → .304 (−11)K% 5.1% → 6.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.13%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	6.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.13%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×1.018	17.32%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.945	×0.830	—	×1.018	8.13%
Triples /BIP	3.03%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.018	3.15%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .315 → .304; ISO .143 → .145; BABIP .294 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 38 PAwOBA .302 → .242 (−60)K% 34.2% → 42.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.21%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	42.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.151	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.82%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.048	30.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.082	×0.830	—	×1.048	3.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.957	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.18%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .302 → .242; ISO .114 → .092; BABIP .381 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 193 PAwOBA .380 → .334 (−46)K% 20.2% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.21%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	25.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.33%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.99%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.51%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.991	×1.050	23.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.991	×1.050	7.71%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.001	×0.970	×0.991	×1.050	1.53%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.988	×0.840	—	×1.050	4.06%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .380 → .334; ISO .199 → .174; BABIP .367 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Daytona Tortugas · 272 PAwOBA .363 → .310 (−53)K% 19.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.85%	÷0.996	×1.420	—	—	28.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.72%	÷0.964	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.08%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.04%
Singles /BIP	22.40%	÷0.981	×0.920	×0.989	×1.012	21.04%
Doubles /BIP	13.54%	÷1.009	×0.960	×0.989	×1.012	12.90%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.989	×1.012	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷0.932	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.99%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 90, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .363 → .310; ISO .171 → .147; BABIP .378 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 235 PAwOBA .415 → .342 (−72)K% 18.3% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.30%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.06%	÷1.095	×0.680	—	×1.042	7.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.71%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.023	×1.042	26.69%
Doubles /BIP	8.43%	÷0.997	×0.910	×1.023	×1.042	8.20%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷0.943	×0.880	×1.023	×1.042	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	6.02%	÷1.399	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.59%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .415 → .342; ISO .220 → .159; BABIP .391 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Roberts'72-'82 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,189 PA	3.3	2,189	49	27	236*	284*	386*	+12	-13	2.9	4.1
/162	664	15	8	+3.8	-4.0	0.9	pk7: 5
#2Daniel Descalsolast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,856 PA	4.3	2,856	48	25	235	320	363	+16	-36	3.5	4.0
/162	664	11	6	+3.8	-8.3	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Dale Sveum'86-'99 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,810 PA	4.2	2,810	69	10	232*	295*	389*	+14	-23	1.4	2.4
/162	664	16	2	+3.4	-5.4	0.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.6	1,750	43	34	230	294	360	+6	-17	2.2	2.3
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-6.3	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Senzel (OGILVIE)	32	45	45	50	55	219/286/344	124	266	3	2	23%	8%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	46→49	46→50	48→55	43	229/286/350	120	286	15	9	25%	6%	80	-0.2	213/281/336	123	284	13	8	28%	8%	75	-0.5	195/272/320	125	261	14	6	29%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Issmael Salas 2014 · AAA	32	48	47→45	48→50	45	239/289/377	137	276	14	7	19%	6%	87	+0.4	235/277/334	99	271	9	6	16%	5%	72	-0.7	237/282/342	105	262	10	5	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2017 · AAA	32	43→53	46→50	48→50	47	217/285/343	126	281	13	8	27%	8%	78	-0.3	210/265/329	119	286	14	6	30%	7%	67	-1.1	210/260/330	120	277	15	3	29%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	44	47→45	44→40	43	226/279/361	135	267	15	9	22%	5%	80	-0.2	241/278/366	125	275	13	8	17%	4%	80	-0.1	254/278/370	115	283	11	2	14%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2014 · AAA	32	43	47→45	48→40	42	220/274/352	132	275	16	8	26%	6%	76	-0.4	212/260/304	92	295	9	5	30%	5%	59	-1.7	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→43	46→50	48→45	45	230/280/356	126	272	15	7	22%	6%	79	-0.2	223/277/344	121	309	10	7	29%	7%	74	-0.5	213/263/322	109	308	6	0	31%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Angel Chavez 2013 · AAA	32	49→54	42→45	48→50	50	242/297/339	97	276	11	8	17%	7%	81	-0.1	237/298/344	107	280	10	11	18%	8%	82	+0.0	231/291/304	74	273	4	8	16%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Bobby Smith 2006 · AAA	32	47	45→50	54→50	44	233/282/351	118	279	13	11	22%	6%	78	-0.3	225/270/355	130	302	14	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	204/236/338	134	293	13	7	35%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Andy Green 2009 · MLB	32	44→54	44→50	46→45	51	215/290/333	118	253	11	8	20%	9%	78	-0.3	214/274/328	114	258	11	9	21%	7%	70	-0.8	200/253/300	99	241	10	7	21%	6%	53	-0.8
✕David Bote 2024 · MLB	31	43→50	47→50	49→45	44	215/285/352	137	279	14	9	27%	7%	80	-0.1	228/291/375	147	283	15	8	24%	7%	88	+0.4	231/286/393	162	270	16	0	20%	6%	88	+0.1
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	45	48→40	46	221/280/340	119	261	14	6	22%	7%	76	-0.4	238/302/348	110	299	11	5	23%	7%	85	+0.2	237/301/332	94	305	9	2	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Donnie Sadler 2006 · MLB	31	45	45→40	48→55	48	223/293/350	127	278	12	12	24%	8%	82	+0.0	220/288/332	112	284	8	14	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/306	101	271	4	16	24%	9%	62	-0.4
✕Adam Rosales 2015 · MLB	32	45→50	44→55	47→45	45	222/280/339	117	275	12	8	24%	6%	75	-0.5	227/290/379	152	298	17	10	29%	7%	88	+0.5	219/280/385	166	296	20	8	32%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Pat Meares 2001 · MLB	32	47	48→50	49→30	47	237/294/378	142	266	16	4	18%	6%	89	+0.5	226/271/350	124	256	13	5	17%	5%	74	-0.5	207/232/298	91	234	8	0	16%	2%	47	-1.2
✕Marshall McDougall 2011 · AAA	32	46→53	48→50	52→45	46	233/275/369	136	249	16	11	15%	5%	80	-0.2	256/307/406	150	286	18	7	17%	7%	101	+1.4	267/317/418	151	295	18	4	16%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Dixon Machado 2024 · MLB	32	48→57	40→45	48→55	53	231/307/324	93	272	8	7	18%	9%	82	-0.0	212/290/294	82	260	8	7	20%	9%	69	-0.9	194/275/250	55	240	5	5	20%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5
✕Ryan Flaherty 2018 · MLB	32	47	44→55	49→45	51	230/309/347	117	289	12	5	24%	9%	88	+0.5	220/283/343	123	286	14	7	27%	8%	77	-0.3	206/265/331	125	269	15	5	28%	7%	68	-0.6

Nick Senzel

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps