Carson Kelly

C Chicago Cubs

Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 212 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 8.936 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBTEX	313	.238/.314/.374	9	0	93	2.2
2025	31	MLBCHC	421	.249/.336/.428	17	2	116	3.4
2026	32	MLBCHC	425	.258/.336/.376	10	0	106	1.9
2027PROJ	33	MLBCHC	279	.237/.321/.381	8	1	100	1.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBCHC	191	.227/.310/.359	5	1	91	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.936First FA2028Options4

2027Ext / FA-deal$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA57

Bat Spd44

Barrel%42

Avg EV32

Speed16

Form.241/.310/.385 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .236/.318/.382

CompsElias Díaz (age 32) · John Buck (age 33) · Nick Hundley (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 104100vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .321 / .381

PA279

HR8

K%18

BB%10

BABIP263

ISO142

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

340.238

POWER50

Barrel%

427.2

Avg EV

3287.7

Bat Spd

4470.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%▲15% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%8%▼▼6% over 71 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.144·.138 over 65 AB (60d) · proj .146

HR/BB4.2%·3.7% over 54 BBE (60d) · proj 4.4%

BABIP.262·.288 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .261

SLASH.241/.310/.385·proj .236/.318/.382

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 813 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

213

600

—

wRC+

141

◀◀L

wOBA

376

315

◀◀L

ISO

185

151

◀◀L

BABIP

323

265

◀◀L

16.4%

19.0%

◀L

BB%

12.7%

9.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.936 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.2	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$8M		$10M	+$2M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$7.5M / $1.5M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$8.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	213	48	10	0	9	10	33	1	0	0	225	263	399	662	174	228	15	4	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	146	32	6	0	2	13	25	2	0	0	219	292	301	593	82	248	15	8	263	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	363	90	17	4	6	37	54	7	1	0	248	329	366	696	118	274	13	9	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	389	85	18	1	8	22	64	3	0	0	219	266	332	597	113	239	15	5	266	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	126	113	33	10	0	0	11	17	0	0	0	292	355	381	735	88	340	13	9	328	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	236	216	62	7	0	6	14	46	3	0	1	287	339	403	742	116	339	19	6	330	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	94	77	22	4	0	3	13	4	1	2	0	286	396	455	850	169	264	4	14	370	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	75	69	12	3	0	0	5	11	1	0	0	174	240	217	457	43	207	15	7	216	32	-6	+0	+1	+6	+2	0.3
2017	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	280	244	69	13	0	10	33	40	3	0	2	283	375	459	834	176	304	14	12	373	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	42	35	4	0	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	114	205	114	319		143	17	7	154	-9	-5	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.2
2018	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	294	79	14	1	7	48	48	5	0	0	269	380	395	775	126	299	14	14	352	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	314	77	19	0	18	48	79	2	0	0	245	349	478	827	232	271	22	13	364	119	+8	+0	+9	+7	+8	3.2
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	221	264	385	649	164	250	22	5	288	80	-3	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.6
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	304	73	11	1	13	44	74	6	0	0	240	347	411	759	171	270	21	12	338	113	+5	+0	+5	+6	+8	2.5
2022	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	317	67	18	0	7	29	71	4	2	0	211	286	334	620	123	247	20	8	279	71	-12	+0	+6	+7	+8	0.9
2022	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	22	17	6	2	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	353	476	824	1.300	471	267	5	18	515	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	151	136	28	5	0	2	14	40	0	1	0	206	280	287	567	81	274	26	9	261	65	-6	+0	+5	+3	+3	0.5
2023	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	34	29	10	3	0	0	3	8	1	0	0	345	424	448	873	103	455	24	9	383	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	238	314	374	688	135	266	18	8	311	93	-3	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.2
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	249	336	428	764	179	272	19	11	338	116	+8	+0	+8	+8	+9	3.4
2026	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	425	380	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	258	336	376	713	118	293	16	9	324	106	+3	-0	-0	+8	+9	1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2634	2327	545	98	3	81	259	516	29	5	1	234	319	383	702	149	266	20	10	315	99	-2	+1	+48	+59	+57	16.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	216	38	7	0	7	7	47	1	0	0	176	205	306	511	130	190	21	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	150	31	5	0	2	9	35	2	0	0	207	261	280	541	73	231	21	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	374	81	16	4	4	26	68	7	1	0	217	280	313	593	96	246	16	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	392	73	15	1	7	19	93	3	0	0	186	229	283	513	97	216	22	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	126	116	30	9	0	0	8	22	0	0	0	259	306	336	643	78	314	17	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	236	220	59	6	0	4	10	55	3	0	1	268	309	350	659	82	336	23	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	75	69	12	3	0	0	5	11	1	0	0	174	240	217	457	43	207	15	7	215	32	-6	+0	+1	+6	+2	0.3
2017	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	280	252	61	11	0	8	25	51	3	0	2	242	318	381	699	139	273	18	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	42	35	4	0	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	114	205	114	319		143	17	7	155	-9	-5	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.2
2018	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	308	73	12	1	6	34	64	5	0	0	237	323	341	664	104	279	18	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	324	76	17	0	19	38	79	2	0	0	235	319	463	782	228	271	22	10	343	119	+8	+0	+9	+7	+8	3.2
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	26	4	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	213	256	369	625	156	250	22	5	286	80	-3	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.6
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	305	73	10	1	14	43	74	6	0	0	239	345	416	761	177	270	21	12	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+6	+8	2.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	317	65	16	0	7	29	71	4	2	0	205	280	322	602	117	247	20	8	274	71	-12	+0	+6	+7	+8	0.9
2022	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	22	18	6	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	333	429	778	1.206	444	224	5	14	440	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	151	136	28	5	0	2	14	40	0	1	0	206	280	287	567	81	274	26	9	264	65	-6	+0	+5	+3	+3	0.5
2023	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	34	30	8	2	0	0	2	10	1	0	0	267	333	333	667	67	388	29	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	66	9	1	8	25	55	6	0	0	235	311	359	670	125	266	18	8	306	93	-3	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	93	13	1	18	45	80	3	2	0	252	338	439	777	187	272	19	11	340	116	+8	+0	+8	+8	+9	3.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	425	380	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	258	336	376	713	118	293	16	9	324	106	+3	-0	-0	+8	+9	1.9
2012	18	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	216	38	7	0	7	7	47	1	0	0	176	205	306	511	130	191	21	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	213	48	10	0	9	10	33	1	0	0	225	263	399	662	174	228	15	4	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	150	31	5	0	2	9	35	2	0	0	207	261	280	541	73	252	21	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	146	32	6	0	2	13	25	2	0	0	219	292	301	593	82	248	15	8	263	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	374	81	16	4	4	26	68	7	1	0	217	280	313	593	96	252	16	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	363	90	17	4	6	37	54	7	1	0	248	329	366	696	118	274	13	9	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	392	73	15	1	7	19	93	3	0	0	186	229	283	513	97	222	22	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	389	85	18	1	8	22	64	3	0	0	219	266	332	597	113	239	15	5	266	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	456	421	113	19	0	5	23	97	4	2	1	268	312	349	662	81	334	21	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	456	406	117	21	0	9	38	67	4	2	1	288	355	406	761	118	323	15	8	337	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	321	72	13	0	8	30	62	4	0	2	224	299	340	638	115	255	17	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	355	313	81	16	0	10	38	51	4	0	2	259	346	406	752	147	282	14	11	340	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	391	343	77	12	1	6	37	71	6	0	0	224	311	318	629	93	265	18	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	391	329	83	14	1	7	51	55	6	0	0	252	363	365	727	112	283	14	13	331	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	324	76	17	0	19	38	79	2	0	0	235	319	463	782	228	251	22	10	343	119	+8	+0	+9	+7	+8	3.2
2019	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	314	77	19	0	18	48	79	2	0	0	245	349	478	827	232	271	22	13	364	119	+8	+0	+9	+7	+8	3.2
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	26	4	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	213	256	369	625	156	239	22	5	286	80	-3	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	221	264	385	649	164	250	22	5	288	80	-3	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.6
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	305	73	10	1	14	43	74	6	0	0	239	345	416	761	177	266	21	12	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+6	+8	2.5
2021	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	304	73	11	1	13	44	74	6	0	0	240	347	411	759	171	270	21	12	338	113	+5	+0	+5	+6	+8	2.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	376	335	71	18	0	9	32	72	4	2	0	212	288	346	635	134	239	19	9	284	78	-10	+0	+6	+7	+8	1.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	376	334	73	20	0	9	33	72	4	2	0	219	296	359	656	141	248	19	9	293	78	-10	+0	+6	+7	+8	1.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	185	166	37	7	0	2	16	50	1	1	0	223	295	301	596	78	302	27	9	274	71	-6	+0	+5	+3	+4	0.6
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	185	165	38	8	0	2	17	48	1	1	0	230	306	315	621	85	308	26	9	283	71	-6	+0	+5	+3	+4	0.6
2024	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	66	9	1	8	25	55	6	0	0	235	311	359	670	125	265	18	8	306	93	-3	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.2
2024	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	238	314	374	688	135	266	18	8	311	93	-3	+0	+11	+6	+7	2.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	93	13	1	18	45	80	3	2	0	252	338	439	777	187	273	19	11	340	116	+8	+0	+8	+8	+9	3.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	249	336	428	764	179	272	19	11	338	116	+8	+0	+8	+8	+9	3.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	425	380	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	258	336	376	713	118	293	16	9	324	106	+3	-0	-0	+8	+9	1.9
2026	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	425	380	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	258	336	376	713	118	293	16	9	324	106	+3	-0	-0	+8	+9	1.9
2012	18	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	215	38	7	0	7	7	47	1	0	0	177	205	307	512	130	190	21	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	155	31	5	0	2	9	35	2	0	0	200	261	271	532	71	231	21	5	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	379	81	16	4	4	26	68	7	1	0	214	280	309	589	95	246	16	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	394	73	15	1	7	19	93	3	0	0	185	229	282	511	96	216	22	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	456	426	113	19	0	5	23	97	4	2	1	265	312	345	658	80	328	21	5	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	318	72	13	0	8	30	62	4	0	2	226	299	343	641	116	259	17	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	391	345	77	12	1	6	37	71	6	0	0	223	311	316	627	93	264	18	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	322	76	17	0	19	38	79	2	0	0	236	319	466	785	230	271	22	10	343	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	121	26	4	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	215	256	372	628	157	250	22	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	307	73	10	1	14	43	74	6	0	0	238	345	414	758	176	270	21	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	376	337	71	18	0	9	32	72	4	2	0	211	288	344	633	134	246	19	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	185	166	37	7	0	2	16	50	1	1	0	223	295	301	596	78	295	27	9	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	313	279	66	9	1	8	25	55	6	0	0	237	311	362	673	125	266	18	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	421	370	93	13	1	18	45	80	3	2	0	251	338	438	776	186	272	19	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	425	377	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	260	336	379	716	119	293	16	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	313	279	66	9	1	8	25	55	6	0	0	237	311	362	673	125	266	18	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	421	370	93	13	1	18	45	80	3	2	0	251	338	438	776	186	272	19	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	425	377	98	15	0	10	40	70	5	0	1	260	336	379	716	119	293	16	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	386	341	81	12	1	12	38	69	4	2	1	237	321	382	703	146	261	18	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+7	+8	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	279	247	58	9	1	8	27	50	3	1	0	237	321	381	701	143	263	18	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	191	169	38	5	0	6	18	35	2	1	0	227	310	361	671	134	253	18	9	303	91	-2	+0	-5	+3	+4	0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	191	169	38	6	0	5	18	35	2	1	0	227	310	359	669	132	255	18	9	302	91	-2	+0	-5	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2825	2496	583	104	3	86	277	551	31	6	1	234	318	381	699	147	265	20	10	314	84	-4	+1	+44	+63	+61	16.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	135	24	1	20	64	127	7	1	0	235	319	385	704	150	267	20	10	314	84	-1	+0	+10	+14	+14	3.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5472	4915	1122	194	10	139	441	1067	60	10	4	228	300	357	656	128	262	19	8	292	84	-4	+1	+44	+68	+67	17.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	134	23	1	17	52	127	7	1	0	229	300	360	659	130	264	20	8	292	84	-1	+0	+9	+14	+14	3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAReno Aces · 34 PAwOBA .384 → .314 (−71)K% 23.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	29.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.82%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.45%
HBP% /PA	2.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.71%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.026	×0.930	—	×0.982	29.68%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.059	×0.830	—	×0.982	10.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .314; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .455 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 22 PAwOBA .525 → .440 (−84)K% 4.5% → 5.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.55%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	5.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.025	×0.930	—	×0.992	11.25%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.996	×0.830	—	×0.992	10.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.100	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.992	9.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .525 → .440; ISO .471 → .398; BABIP .267 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 349 PAwOBA .342 → .304 (−37)K% 13.8% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.75%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.61%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.048	9.77%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.47%
Singles /BIP	23.17%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.993	×1.048	22.04%
Doubles /BIP	5.69%	÷0.957	×0.810	×0.993	×1.048	5.01%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.993	×1.048	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	2.85%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.048	2.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .342 → .304; ISO .126 → .112; BABIP .299 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 280 PAwOBA .363 → .307 (−56)K% 14.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	18.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.79%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.050	8.82%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.10%
Singles /BIP	22.55%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.984	×1.050	20.95%
Doubles /BIP	6.37%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.984	×1.050	5.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.984	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.90%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .363 → .307; ISO .176 → .144; BABIP .304 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 236 PAwOBA .322 → .292 (−30)K% 19.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.49%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.93%	÷0.999	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.33%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	1.15%
Singles /BIP	28.82%	÷0.966	×0.920	×1.020	×1.042	29.17%
Doubles /BIP	4.12%	÷0.986	×0.840	×1.020	×1.042	3.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.020	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.53%	÷1.155	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.55%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .322 → .292; ISO .116 → .088; BABIP .339 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 126 PAwOBA .322 → .285 (−37)K% 13.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.49%	÷0.988	×1.290	—	—	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.73%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.96%	÷0.989	×0.900	×0.982	×1.050	22.48%
Doubles /BIP	10.42%	÷0.941	×0.810	×0.982	×1.050	9.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.982	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.931	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .322 → .285; ISO .088 → .078; BABIP .340 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 419 PAwOBA .262 → .222 (−40)K% 15.3% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.27%	÷0.976	×1.420	—	—	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.25%	÷0.907	×0.750	—	×1.027	4.46%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.68%
Singles /BIP	17.85%	÷1.024	×0.920	×0.991	×1.027	16.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.54%	÷1.102	×0.960	×0.991	×1.027	4.91%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.122	×0.810	×0.991	×1.027	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	2.46%	÷0.989	×0.880	—	×1.027	2.25%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 105, 2B 120, 3B 124, K 95, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .262 → .222; ISO .113 → .095; BABIP .239 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 APeoria Chiefs · 415 PAwOBA .304 → .262 (−42)K% 13.0% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.01%	÷1.074	×1.360	—	—	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.21%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.36%
Singles /BIP	20.39%	÷1.051	×0.920	×0.986	×1.030	18.12%
Doubles /BIP	5.50%	÷0.896	×0.830	×0.986	×1.030	5.17%
Triples /BIP	1.29%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.986	×1.030	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷1.202	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.33%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 110, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 115, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .304 → .262; ISO .118 → .103; BABIP .274 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	4.6	3,062	95	7	237	318	388	+55	+49	13.7	13.4
/162	664	21	1	+11.9	+10.5	3.0	pk7: 13
#3Ed Herrmann'67-'78 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,057 PA	4.6	3,057	80	6	241*	311*	404*	+49	+0	11.9	11.5
/162	664	17	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 11
#4Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#5Andy Etchebarren'62-'78 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,934 PA	4.4	2,934	49	13	242*	313*	383*	+52	+0	11.3	10.2
/162	664	11	3	+11.9	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 9
#6Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Kelly (OGILVIE)	33	50	50	40	60	235/318/379	144	261	9	1	18%	10%	100	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
✕John Buck 2013 · MLB	33	44→53	52→60	42→30	50	228/303/392	164	271	20	2	24%	9%	97	+1.1	226/293/363	137	276	17	4	24%	7%	86	+0.3	224/284/345	121	273	17	2	24%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Nick Hundley 2017 · MLB	33	51→45	49→55	42→40	46	257/304/407	150	304	16	5	21%	6%	99	+1.3	241/284/407	166	304	19	4	26%	6%	93	+0.8	229/267/395	166	295	19	2	29%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	56→60	40→50	49	229/308/427	198	263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+1.8	236/339/446	210	295	26	4	28%	10%	122	+3.0	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Stephen Vogt 2017 · MLB	32	50→59	52→60	42→40	50	257/313/426	170	280	19	2	17%	7%	107	+1.9	245/301/428	183	275	21	4	19%	7%	103	+1.6	227/291/414	187	259	22	2	22%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	48→57	50→55	41→45	55	246/327/401	155	280	19	2	20%	10%	107	+1.9	250/325/391	141	305	14	6	21%	10%	103	+1.6	269/349/411	142	326	13	5	20%	11%	118	+1.7
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→47	50→55	43→40	53	241/325/403	161	293	17	8	23%	10%	107	+1.8	206/298/335	129	283	12	6	29%	11%	82	-0.0	175/275/285	109	248	10	2	31%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Kenji Johjima 2009 · MLB	33	53→58	47→50	43→40	47	260/303/394	134	262	15	3	9%	4%	96	+1.0	245/298/393	148	253	18	7	12%	6%	95	+0.9	245/295/403	158	245	21	5	11%	5%	97	+0.5
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Oscar Salazar 2011 · MLB	33	54	50→55	41→45	50	269/320/429	159	294	17	5	15%	7%	110	+2.1	223/274/336	113	262	12	10	20%	7%	72	-0.7	191/236/262	71	231	8	10	21%	6%	39	-0.7
✕A.J. Ellis 2014 · MLB	33	50→54	46→45	36→40	56	247/333/376	129	288	13	2	18%	10%	103	+1.6	223/319/337	114	259	11	3	17%	12%	90	+0.6	220/313/354	134	245	15	2	17%	10%	94	+0.3
✕Aledmys Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	47→57	51→55	41→45	45	244/294/402	158	268	20	3	18%	6%	95	+1.0	224/276/346	122	261	12	5	19%	6%	76	-0.4	224/273/331	108	269	8	2	19%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Ty Wigginton 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	51→60	37→50	49	255/311/413	159	277	19	2	16%	7%	104	+1.6	233/300/377	144	270	17	6	20%	8%	92	+0.7	226/299/370	144	262	18	7	20%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Matt Wieters 2019 · MLB	33	46→56	48→55	43→40	51	232/299/367	135	261	16	3	19%	8%	88	+0.5	234/302/404	170	270	23	6	23%	8%	99	+1.2	216/271/447	231	223	39	3	26%	7%	100	+0.4
✕Francisco Cervelli 2019 · MLB	33	52→62	47→45	41→45	58	255/361/399	143	308	14	5	21%	12%	119	+2.7	248/342/413	165	304	18	7	23%	10%	116	+2.5	227/317/367	141	297	13	3	26%	8%	96	+0.3
✕Rod Barajas 2009 · MLB	33	49→47	50→60	42→30	48	246/302/403	157	269	17	2	17%	6%	98	+1.2	233/274/410	177	246	24	2	17%	4%	90	+0.6	226/263/409	183	234	26	1	18%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2021 · MLB	33	44→46	49→55	47→30	47	225/294/373	147	269	17	5	23%	8%	88	+0.5	211/275/352	141	276	17	4	29%	7%	76	-0.4	192/260/324	131	248	16	0	29%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Wilson Ramos 2021 · MLB	33	55→61	49→55	47→30	50	277/334/425	148	307	18	3	16%	7%	115	+2.4	243/293/411	168	270	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	223/256/396	173	235	27	0	19%	4%	79	-0.1

Carson Kelly

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps