Carson Kelly — OGILVIE

Carson KellyC Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 6'1" / 212 lbs MLB Svc 7.936 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION251 act + 167 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 132123vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .327 / .378

PA167

HR5

K%18

BB%11

BABIP260

ISO144

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

906.6%

xwOBA

620.322

POWER50

Barrel%

487.9

Avg EV

3988.3

Bat Spd

4470.8

EYE60

Chase%

9020.0%

SPEED40

Sprint

1325.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 813 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

213

600

—

wRC+

146

◀◀L

wOBA

376

315

◀◀L

ISO

185

151

◀◀L

BABIP

323

265

◀◀L

16.4%

19.0%

◀L

BB%

12.7%

9.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.936 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$6M
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$6M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$5.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$7.5M / $1.5M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$5.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$5.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	217	37	7	0	7	6	47	1	0	0	171	196	300	496	129	184	21	3	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	213	48	10	0	9	10	33	1	0	0	225	263	399	662	174	228	15	4	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	151	29	4	0	2	8	35	2	0	0	192	242	258	501	66	233	21	5	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	146	32	6	0	2	13	25	2	0	0	219	292	301	593	82	248	15	8	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	375	81	18	5	4	25	64	7	1	0	216	278	323	600	107	248	15	6	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	363	90	17	4	6	37	54	7	1	0	248	329	366	696	118	274	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	391	68	13	1	7	20	96	3	0	0	174	220	266	486	92	208	23	5	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	389	85	18	1	8	22	64	3	0	0	219	266	332	597	113	239	15	5	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	456	422	112	19	0	5	22	100	4	2	1	265	308	346	654	81	333	22	5	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	456	406	117	21	0	9	38	67	4	2	1	288	355	406	761	118	323	15	8	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	355	322	70	13	0	8	29	62	4	0	2	217	290	332	622	115	246	17	8	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	355	313	81	16	0	10	38	51	4	0	2	259	346	406	752	147	282	14	11	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	2 teams	—	391	343	76	12	1	7	37	72	6	0	0	222	308	324	632	102	259	18	9	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	2 teams	—	391	329	83	14	1	7	51	55	6	0	0	252	363	365	727	112	283	14	13	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	314	75	18	0	17	48	79	2	0	0	239	343	459	802	220	265	22	13	334	114	+6	+0	+9	+7	+10	3.3
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	314	77	19	0	18	48	79	2	0	0	245	349	478	827	232	271	22	13	364	137	+15	+0	+9	+7	+10	4.2
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	221	264	385	649	164	250	22	5	278	71	-4	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.6
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	221	264	385	649	164	250	22	5	288	78	-3	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.7
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	304	72	11	1	12	44	74	6	0	0	237	345	398	743	161	269	21	12	327	108	+3	+0	+5	+6	+10	2.5
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	304	73	11	1	13	44	74	6	0	0	240	347	411	759	171	270	21	12	338	117	+7	+0	+5	+6	+10	2.9
2022	28	MLB	2 teams	—	376	335	72	19	0	9	32	72	4	2	0	215	291	352	643	137	243	19	9	282	74	-11	+0	+6	+7	+11	1.3
2022	28	MLB	2 teams	—	376	334	73	20	0	9	33	72	4	2	0	219	296	359	656	141	248	19	9	293	82	-7	+0	+6	+7	+11	1.6
2023	29	MLB	2 teams	—	185	166	36	7	0	2	16	51	1	1	0	217	290	295	585	78	296	28	9	270	65	-7	+0	+5	+3	+5	0.6
2023	29	MLB	2 teams	—	185	165	38	8	0	2	17	48	1	1	0	230	306	315	621	85	308	26	9	283	75	-5	+0	+5	+3	+5	0.8
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	238	314	374	688	135	266	18	8	304	91	-3	+0	+11	+6	+9	2.3
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	238	314	374	688	135	266	18	8	311	96	-1	+0	+11	+6	+9	2.5
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	249	336	428	764	179	272	19	11	331	112	+6	+0	+8	+8	+12	3.4
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	249	336	428	764	179	272	19	11	338	117	+8	+0	+8	+8	+12	3.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	251	220	60	10	0	6	28	42	3	0	1	273	363	400	763	127	314	17	11	342	120	+6	-0	-0	+4	+7	1.7
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	251	220	60	10	0	6	28	42	3	0	1	273	363	400	763	127	314	17	11	346	123	+7	-0	-0	+4	+7	1.8
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	167	145	34	6	0	5	18	30	2	1	0	234	327	378	705	144	266	18	11	325	107	+1	+0	+1	+3	+5	1.0
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	167	145	35	7	0	5	18	30	2	1	0	241	333	393	726	152	268	18	11	318	102	+0	+0	+1	+3	+5	0.9
FULL	32	MLB	CHC	—	418	365	95	17	0	11	46	72	5	1	1	260	351	397	748	137	297	17	11	333	113	+6	-0	+0	+7	+12	2.6
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	—	418	365	94	16	0	11	46	72	5	1	1	257	348	391	740	134	293	17	11	335	115	+7	-0	+0	+7	+12	2.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	295	259	59	10	0	9	31	54	3	1	1	228	317	371	688	143	255	18	11	313	97	-1	-0	-3	+5	+8	1.0
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	246	215	47	8	0	7	26	47	3	0	0	219	311	353	665	135	248	19	11	303	90	-3	+0	-4	+4	+7	0.5
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	295	259	60	11	0	9	31	54	3	1	1	232	321	378	699	147	256	18	11	306	93	-2	-0	-3	+5	+8	0.8
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	246	215	47	8	0	7	26	47	3	0	0	219	311	353	665	135	249	19	11	297	85	-4	+0	-4	+4	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2917	2566	589	109	3	92	294	577	32	7	1	230	316	382	698	152	259	20	10	311	97	-11	+1	+43	+64	+83	18.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	132	24	1	21	66	129	7	2	0	231	318	386	704	156	261	20	10	311	97	-3	+0	+10	+14	+18	4.1
Career	—			—	5285	4731	1054	192	10	132	438	1047	58	10	4	223	297	351	648	129	257	20	8	285	76	-141	+0	+43	+94	+150	15.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	130	24	1	16	54	129	7	1	0	223	297	351	648	127	258	20	8	285	76	-17	+0	+5	+12	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	225	213	48	10	0	9	10	33	1	0	0	225	263	399	662	174	228	15	4	291	81	-5	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	168	146	32	6	0	2	13	25	2	0	0	219	292	301	593	82	248	15	8	263	59	-8	+0	—	—	+5	-0.3
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	415	363	90	17	4	6	37	54	7	1	0	248	329	366	696	118	274	13	9	310	96	-2	+0	—	—	+12	1.0
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	419	389	85	18	1	8	22	64	3	0	0	219	266	332	597	113	239	15	5	266	62	-18	+0	—	—	+12	-0.6
2016	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	126	113	33	10	0	0	11	17	0	0	0	292	355	381	735	88	340	13	9	328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2016	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	236	216	62	7	0	6	14	46	3	0	1	287	339	403	742	116	339	19	6	330	110	+3	-0	—	—	+7	0.9
2016	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	94	77	22	4	0	3	13	4	1	2	0	286	396	455	850	169	264	4	14	370	141	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2017	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	75	69	12	3	0	0	5	11	1	0	0	174	240	217	457	43	207	15	7	216	24	-6	+0	+1	+6	+2	0.3
2017	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	280	244	69	13	0	10	33	40	3	0	2	283	375	459	834	176	304	14	12	373	143	+14	-1	—	—	+8	2.1
2018	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	42	35	4	0	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	114	205	114	319		143	17	7	154	-24	-6	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.2
2018	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	294	79	14	1	7	48	48	5	0	0	269	380	395	775	126	299	14	14	352	128	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.1
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	365	314	77	19	0	18	48	79	2	0	0	245	349	478	827	232	271	22	13	364	137	+15	+0	+9	+7	+10	4.2
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	221	264	385	649	164	250	22	5	288	78	-3	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.7
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	359	304	73	11	1	13	44	74	6	0	0	240	347	411	759	171	270	21	12	338	117	+7	+0	+5	+6	+10	2.9
2022	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	354	317	67	18	0	7	29	71	4	2	0	211	286	334	620	123	247	20	8	279	72	-11	+0	+6	+7	+10	1.2
2022	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	22	17	6	2	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	353	476	824	1.300	471	267	5	18	515	252	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	151	136	28	5	0	2	14	40	0	1	0	206	280	287	567	81	274	26	9	261	58	-7	+0	+5	+3	+4	0.5
2023	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	34	29	10	3	0	0	3	8	1	0	0	345	424	448	873	103	455	24	9	383	151	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	238	314	374	688	135	266	18	8	311	96	-1	+0	+11	+6	+9	2.5
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	249	336	428	764	179	272	19	11	338	117	+8	+0	+8	+8	+12	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2209	1947	447	83	3	71	219	446	24	5	0	230	315	385	700	155	260	20	10	313	98	-5	+1	+49	+52	+63	16.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Brian Schneiderlast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,522 PA	12	3,522	66	4	246	319	367	+54	+84	21.4	20.8
	/162	664	12	1	246	319	367	+10.3	+15.8	4.0	pk7: 20
#3Yorvit Torrealbalast yr '13 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,179 PA	12	3,179	56	19	256	314	379	+53	+79	20.2	18.4
	/162	664	12	4	256	314	379	+11.1	+16.6	4.2	pk7: 17
#4Jason LaRuelast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,000 PA	11	3,000	93	10	232	316	397	+32	+47	16.9	16.2
	/162	664	21	2	232	316	397	+7.1	+10.5	3.7	pk7: 15
#5Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	3,371	107	8	236	319	390	+60	+53	15.4	14.7
	/162	664	21	2	236	319	390	+11.9	+10.4	3.0	pk7: 14
#6Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
	/162	664	25	0	225	314	417	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Kelly (OGILVIE)	32	50	50	40	60	257/348/391	134	293	11	1	17%	11%	115	+2.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Buck 2012 · MLB	32	48→53	54→60	41→30	48	251/316/425	174	296	22	2	23%	8%	110	+2.4	227/305/376	149	277	19	3	24%	9%	92	+1.2	217/296/351	134	267	17	1	25%	9%	76	+0.1
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	46→47	49→55	43→40	53	230/316/381	151	281	16	8	24%	10%	98	+1.6	203/297/330	127	279	12	6	29%	11%	78	+0.2	175/277/284	109	247	10	2	31%	11%	55	-0.6
✕A.J. Ellis 2013 · MLB	32	53→56	45	41→40	60	258/361/386	128	307	12	2	19%	12%	118	+3.0	237/336/362	125	276	13	2	18%	12%	102	+1.8	224/330/341	117	257	13	0	17%	13%	89	+0.5
✕Stephen Vogt 2017 · MLB	32	52→61	52→60	42→40	52	262/323/431	170	287	19	2	17%	8%	114	+2.7	250/308/438	188	281	21	4	19%	8%	110	+2.4	233/300/426	193	265	22	2	22%	9%	99	+0.8
✕Curt Casali 2020 · MLB	31	48	48→50	40→30	49	243/310/381	138	294	16	3	23%	8%	95	+1.4	233/325/397	164	303	19	5	28%	11%	107	+2.2	213/320/302	89	284	9	0	25%	12%	78	+0.1
✕James McCann 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	50	41→45	45	248/310/398	150	319	19	5	28%	8%	100	+1.7	222/279/353	131	284	15	7	27%	6%	76	+0.0	229/275/374	146	285	18	3	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Aledmys Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	47→57	50→55	41→45	46	242/295/393	151	268	18	3	18%	6%	92	+1.2	226/282/348	122	265	12	5	19%	6%	75	-0.0	229/283/340	110	277	7	2	19%	5%	69	-0.2
●Robinson Chirinos 2016 · MLB	32	44→46	52→60	44→50	49	227/301/398	171	263	20	3	22%	8%	97	+1.5	236/330/449	213	284	26	4	26%	10%	122	+3.3	230/343/435	205	296	26	2	29%	11%	122	+2.1
✕Dioner Navarro 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	48→50	47→45	51	262/317/401	139	285	17	4	15%	8%	103	+1.9	227/288/357	130	268	14	5	20%	7%	79	+0.3	198/263/295	97	242	9	1	22%	7%	52	-0.6
●Chris Iannetta 2014 · MLB	31	46→56	50→60	39→45	63	230/347/383	153	284	18	4	24%	15%	112	+2.6	229/338/377	148	293	16	4	25%	13%	107	+2.2	216/316/387	172	265	21	0	26%	12%	98	+0.9
✕Wilson Ramos 2020 · MLB	32	56→60	50→60	47→30	52	282/340/435	152	308	19	2	16%	8%	121	+3.2	256/309/417	161	284	21	4	18%	7%	105	+2.1	236/279/404	168	257	24	0	20%	5%	86	+0.3
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	50→46	47→55	42→40	44	249/293/385	136	299	15	6	22%	6%	89	+0.9	244/292/401	157	299	17	4	23%	6%	93	+1.3	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕Matthew LeCroy 2007 · MLB	31	50	53→55	46→30	53	256/337/422	167	304	22	3	23%	10%	118	+3.0	208/275/317	109	252	11	5	21%	7%	65	-0.7	165/226/231	67	202	5	0	20%	6%	20	-1.9
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→55	47→50	49→40	50	251/319/388	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	102	+1.8	223/297/340	117	295	11	8	26%	9%	79	+0.3	167/245/198	31	246	0	0	29%	9%	4	-0.9
●Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	47→51	45→50	41→45	51	232/302/355	123	270	13	5	19%	8%	85	+0.7	245/308/377	132	285	14	7	19%	8%	94	+1.3	257/322/406	148	293	17	7	18%	8%	104	+1.0
✕Iker Franco 2013 · AAA	32	48→47	49→50	40	48	246/302/385	139	286	18	3	21%	7%	93	+1.3	241/294/346	105	291	12	3	21%	7%	79	+0.3	269/322/355	86	324	10	1	19%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	48→57	51→55	41→45	56	247/332/404	158	280	19	2	20%	11%	111	+2.5	250/328/390	140	306	14	6	21%	10%	105	+2.1	270/352/410	140	328	13	5	20%	11%	117	+1.8
✕Daniel Descalso 2019 · MLB	32	47→55	50	49→45	59	233/337/400	168	288	16	4	24%	13%	111	+2.5	202/300/336	134	277	14	6	29%	12%	80	+0.4	160/263/245	85	221	9	5	29%	12%	40	-0.9
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Humberto Cota 2011 · AAA	32	52	48→50	38→30	49	259/317/404	144	305	16	3	20%	8%	104	+2.0	259/324/379	120	321	13	4	22%	8%	100	+1.7	250/317/369	119	307	15	1	22%	8%	93	+0.6