Carson Kelly — OGILVIE

Carson KellyC Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 6'1" / 212 lbs MLB BB +5%HR -4% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.3 · 2026

wRC+†vL 157130vR 121

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .321 / .401

PA338

HR12

K%19

BB%10

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

50→50

SPD

40→40

EYE

56↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+3.3	$26M	+$21M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.8	$15M	+$7M
Totals		$12M		$41M	+$29M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	225	217	37	7	0	7	6	47	1	0	0	.171	.196	.300	.496	.129	.184	21	3	.214	22	-20	+0	+0	+4	+6	-1.0
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	168	150	29	4	0	2	9	32	2	0	0	.193	.248	.260	.508	.067	.229	19	5	.222	28	-14	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.6
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	415	374	80	15	4	4	26	65	7	1	0	.214	.278	.307	.585	.094	.246	16	6	.256	54	-22	+0	+0	+7	+12	-0.2
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	419	393	72	15	1	7	18	93	3	0	0	.183	.225	.280	.505	.097	.218	22	4	.218	25	-35	+0	+0	+7	+12	-1.6
2016	22	AA	3 teams	456	422	108	18	0	6	22	102	4	2	1	.256	.299	.341	.640	.085	.321	22	5	.278	71	-15	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	355	322	70	13	0	8	29	62	4	0	2	.217	.290	.332	.622	.115	.246	17	8	.277	70	-12	-1	+1	+6	+10	0.5
2018	24	AAA	2 teams	391	344	75	12	1	6	36	71	6	0	0	.218	.303	.311	.614	.093	.257	18	9	.278	71	-13	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.5
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	365	314	79	19	0	19	48	79	2	0	0	.252	.354	.494	.848	.242	.276	22	13	.345	123	+9	+0	+9	+7	+10	3.6
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	129	122	28	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	.230	.271	.393	.665	.164	.261	22	5	.289	79	-3	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.7
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	359	304	72	11	1	12	44	74	6	0	0	.237	.345	.398	.743	.161	.269	21	12	.323	106	+2	+0	+5	+6	+10	2.4
2022	28	MLB	2 teams	376	335	72	19	0	9	32	72	4	2	0	.215	.291	.352	.643	.137	.243	19	9	.285	76	-10	+0	+6	+7	+11	1.4
2023	29	MLB	2 teams	185	166	36	7	0	2	16	51	1	1	0	.217	.290	.295	.585	.078	.296	28	9	.268	64	-8	+0	+5	+3	+5	0.6
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	313	281	68	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	.242	.317	.377	.695	.135	.271	18	8	.303	90	-4	+0	+11	+6	+9	2.3
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	421	369	94	13	1	18	45	80	3	2	0	.255	.341	.442	.782	.187	.276	19	11	.335	114	+7	+0	+8	+8	+12	3.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	75	63	21	4	0	2	11	12	1	0	0	.333	.440	.492	.932	.159	.388	16	15	.413	174	+6	+0	-0	+1	+2	1.0
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	263	230	58	9	1	9	28	49	3	1	0	.252	.341	.417	.758	.165	.281	19	11	.339	117	+5	+0	+5	+5	+7	2.3
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	338	293	79	13	1	11	39	61	4	1	0	.270	.363	.433	.797	.164	.306	18	12	.355	130	+11	+0	+5	+6	+10	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	33	MLB	CHC	280	245	62	9	1	10	30	46	3	0	0	.253	.342	.420	.762	.167	.269	16	11	.333	113	+4	+0	+1	+5	+8	1.9
2028	34	MLB	CHC	233	204	49	7	0	8	25	41	2	0	0	.240	.329	.392	.721	.152	.267	18	11	.326	108	+2	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.3
2029	35	MLB	CHC	181	158	38	6	0	6	19	33	2	0	0	.241	.330	.392	.722	.152	.265	18	10	.318	102	+0	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5534	4950	1127	198	11	147	464	1081	60	9	3	.228	.302	.361	.663	.134	.261	20	8	.290	80	-125	+1	+53	+99	+157	18.9
/ 162G	—			650	581	132	23	1	17	54	127	7	1	0	.227	.300	.358	.658	.131	.260	20	8	.290	80	-15	+0	+6	+12	+18	2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	225	213	48	10	0	9	10	33	1	0	0	.225	.263	.399	.662	.174	.228	15	4	.291	81	-5	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2013	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	168	146	32	6	0	2	13	25	2	0	0	.219	.292	.301	.593	.082	.248	15	8	.263	59	-8	+0	—	—	+5	-0.3
2014	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	415	363	90	17	4	6	37	54	7	1	0	.248	.329	.366	.696	.118	.274	13	9	.310	96	-2	+0	—	—	+12	1.0
2015	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	419	389	85	18	1	8	22	64	3	0	0	.219	.266	.332	.597	.113	.239	15	5	.266	62	-18	+0	—	—	+12	-0.6
2016	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	126	113	33	10	0	0	11	17	0	0	0	.292	.355	.381	.735	.088	.340	13	9	.328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2016	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	236	216	62	7	0	6	14	46	3	0	1	.287	.339	.403	.742	.116	.339	19	6	.330	110	+3	-0	—	—	+7	0.9
2016	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	94	77	22	4	0	3	13	4	1	2	0	.286	.396	.455	.850	.169	.264	4	14	.370	141	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2017	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	75	69	12	3	0	0	5	11	1	0	0	.174	.240	.217	.457	.043	.207	15	7	.216	24	-6	+0	+1	+6	+2	0.3
2017	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	280	244	69	13	0	10	33	40	3	0	2	.283	.375	.459	.834	.176	.304	14	12	.373	143	+14	-1	—	—	+8	2.1
2018	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	42	35	4	0	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	.114	.205	.114	.319	.000	.143	17	7	.154	-24	-6	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.2
2018	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	349	294	79	14	1	7	48	48	5	0	0	.269	.380	.395	.775	.126	.299	14	14	.352	128	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.1
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	365	314	77	19	0	18	48	79	2	0	0	.245	.349	.478	.827	.232	.271	22	13	.364	137	+15	+0	+9	+7	+10	4.2
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	129	122	27	5	0	5	6	29	1	0	0	.221	.264	.385	.649	.164	.250	22	5	.288	78	-3	+0	+4	+2	+4	0.7
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	359	304	73	11	1	13	44	74	6	0	0	.240	.347	.411	.759	.171	.270	21	12	.338	117	+7	+0	+5	+6	+10	2.9
2022	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	354	317	67	18	0	7	29	71	4	2	0	.211	.286	.334	.620	.123	.247	20	8	.279	72	-11	+0	+6	+7	+10	1.2
2022	28	AAA	Reno Aces	22	17	6	2	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	.353	.476	.824	1.300	.471	.267	5	18	.515	252	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	151	136	28	5	0	2	14	40	0	1	0	.206	.280	.287	.567	.081	.274	26	9	.261	58	-7	+0	+5	+3	+4	0.5
2023	29	AAA	Reno Aces	34	29	10	3	0	0	3	8	1	0	0	.345	.424	.448	.873	.103	.455	24	9	.383	151	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	313	281	67	9	1	9	25	55	6	0	0	.238	.314	.374	.688	.135	.266	18	8	.311	96	-1	+0	+11	+6	+9	2.5
2025	31	MLB	Chicago Cubs	421	369	92	13	1	17	45	80	3	2	0	.249	.336	.428	.764	.179	.272	19	11	.338	117	+8	+0	+8	+8	+12	3.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2209	1947	447	83	3	71	219	446	24	5	0	.230	.315	.385	.700	.155	.260	20	10	.313	98	-5	+1	+48	+52	+63	16.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Kelly (OGILVIE)	32	50	50	40	60	.251/.339/.414	.164	.271	12	2	16%	11%	117	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→46	51→55	43→40	52	.243/.324/.407	.163	.293	18	7	23%	10%	108	+2.3	.212/.307/.346	.134	.289	13	6	29%	11%	85	+0.7	.181/.285/.291	.110	.257	10	2	31%	12%	61	-0.4
✕Ty Wigginton 2010 · MLB	32	54→55	54→60	37→50	49	.275/.329/.452	.177	.296	22	4	16%	7%	122	+3.3	.247/.312/.403	.156	.277	19	4	18%	8%	102	+1.9	.234/.308/.385	.151	.267	18	4	19%	9%	91	+0.9
✕John Buck 2012 · MLB	32	47→53	52→55	41→30	47	.244/.308/.411	.166	.292	20	2	24%	7%	102	+1.9	.223/.301/.370	.147	.271	18	3	24%	9%	89	+1.0	.212/.292/.346	.133	.260	17	1	25%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Stephen Vogt 2017 · MLB	32	52→61	53→60	43→40	52	.264/.325/.441	.177	.287	20	2	16%	8%	117	+2.9	.249/.308/.435	.186	.279	21	3	19%	8%	109	+2.4	.228/.296/.416	.188	.260	22	2	22%	9%	95	+0.7
✕Tommy La Stella 2021 · MLB	32	54→55	51→55	46→50	57	.274/.343/.435	.161	.274	19	4	9%	9%	123	+3.3	.248/.315/.394	.146	.264	15	3	12%	8%	101	+1.8	.236/.299/.365	.129	.257	13	0	14%	8%	82	+0.2
●Chris Iannetta 2014 · MLB	31	47→57	50→60	40→45	63	.233/.350/.385	.152	.287	17	5	24%	15%	114	+2.7	.229/.339/.374	.145	.294	15	4	25%	13%	107	+2.2	.222/.332/.408	.187	.277	23	0	27%	13%	105	+1.0
✕Oscar Salazar 2010 · MLB	32	55→56	52→55	43→45	47	.278/.317/.454	.177	.301	19	5	15%	6%	118	+3.0	.248/.298/.385	.137	.279	15	8	17%	7%	91	+1.1	.214/.271/.305	.091	.252	11	7	20%	7%	55	-0.3
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	50→57	51→55	42→45	56	.252/.335/.412	.160	.286	19	3	19%	10%	114	+2.7	.248/.327/.385	.137	.302	14	5	21%	10%	104	+2.0	.261/.344/.390	.129	.317	12	5	20%	11%	104	+1.3
✕Matthew LeCroy 2007 · MLB	31	50	53→55	46→30	52	.257/.336/.424	.167	.305	22	3	23%	10%	118	+3.0	.209/.277/.319	.110	.253	12	4	21%	8%	66	-0.6	.165/.226/.231	.067	.202	5	0	20%	6%	20	-1.9
✕José Cruz Jr. 2006 · MLB	32	48→51	54→65	42→50	62	.247/.349/.436	.190	.281	21	6	20%	14%	126	+3.5	.235/.332/.393	.158	.283	15	9	21%	13%	108	+2.3	.228/.323/.362	.134	.279	11	13	21%	12%	92	+0.6
✕Ryan Doumit 2013 · MLB	32	52→62	52→55	44→45	48	.265/.323/.436	.171	.297	19	2	18%	7%	115	+2.8	.245/.304/.402	.157	.285	18	3	20%	7%	98	+1.6	.231/.294/.374	.142	.272	16	2	21%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Aledmys Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	51→55	41→45	46	.244/.296/.400	.156	.270	19	3	18%	6%	95	+1.4	.226/.281/.346	.120	.264	12	4	19%	6%	74	-0.1	.223/.277/.321	.098	.270	7	2	19%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Damian Miller 2002 · MLB	32	53→56	50→55	40→30	52	.266/.334/.425	.159	.308	18	4	20%	9%	117	+2.9	.253/.328/.409	.156	.309	17	3	22%	10%	110	+2.4	.262/.332/.397	.135	.324	12	0	21%	9%	101	+1.2
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→47	56→60	40→50	49	.230/.307/.427	.197	.263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+2.2	.234/.337/.444	.210	.291	26	4	28%	10%	124	+3.4	.229/.342/.433	.204	.295	26	2	29%	11%	117	+1.9
✕Nick Hundley 2017 · MLB	33	52→45	49→55	42→40	46	.260/.308/.413	.153	.308	17	5	21%	6%	102	+1.9	.245/.292/.416	.171	.306	19	4	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.230/.272/.400	.171	.294	20	2	29%	5%	80	+0.1
✕Didi Gregorius 2022 · MLB	32	46→55	53→60	47→50	48	.237/.293/.408	.171	.246	21	6	15%	6%	95	+1.4	.215/.277/.344	.129	.238	13	6	16%	6%	72	-0.2	.186/.248/.281	.095	.212	6	3	15%	5%	41	-0.7
✕Daniel Descalso 2019 · MLB	32	48→54	51→50	49→45	59	.240/.341/.410	.170	.294	17	5	23%	13%	116	+2.8	.204/.303/.343	.139	.274	14	6	29%	12%	83	+0.6	.151/.255/.234	.083	.207	9	5	30%	12%	33	-1.1
✕Mike Kinkade 2005 · MLB	32	50→60	50	42→45	49	.252/.353/.411	.160	.293	17	8	20%	7%	123	+3.3	.261/.332/.400	.139	.301	13	8	17%	5%	110	+2.4	.273/.341/.408	.135	.316	12	7	17%	4%	114	+1.9
✕Chris Widger 2003 · MLB	32	49	51→60	44→40	50	.249/.314/.416	.167	.279	18	6	18%	8%	106	+2.2	.240/.296/.358	.118	.280	9	6	17%	6%	83	+0.6	.215/.276/.317	.102	.253	8	0	18%	7%	61	-0.2
✕Trevor Plouffe 2018 · MLB	32	46→51	51→60	43→45	48	.236/.297/.396	.159	.274	20	3	22%	8%	94	+1.3	.219/.299/.386	.167	.279	21	6	28%	10%	93	+1.3	.186/.286/.374	.188	.233	23	5	30%	12%	84	+0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)