Hunter Brown — OGILVIE

Hunter Brown P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82

ERA3.59

FIP3.58

K%26.6%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

FB+2.3 (62%)

CH (10%)

SI (29%)

CU (19%)

SL (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+2.8	$21M	+$12M
2028	Arb-3	$13M	+2.3	$16M	+$6M
Totals		$25M		$40M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	25.4%	12.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.04	4.29	—
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	30.3%	11.5%	18.7%	2.8%	4.04	3.54	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	27.7%	10.7%	16.9%	1.3%	2.28	2.84	+3.8
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	30.8%	10.3%	20.6%	1.0%	2.28	2.38	+4.5
2023	24	MLB	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.7%	5.09	3.91	+2.7
2023	24	MLB	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.9%	5.09	4.04	+2.5
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.4%	3.49	3.35	+4.1
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.5%	3.49	3.43	+3.9
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.2%	2.43	2.89	+5.4
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.3%	2.43	2.98	+5.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Houston Astros	11	11	50	207	60	25	7	100%	4.5	25.5%	14.4%	11.1%	3.3%	3.08	4.56	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	11	11	65	274	73	27	7	100%	5.9	26.6%	9.9%	16.8%	2.7%	3.59	3.58	+0.8
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	11	11	65	274	73	27	8	100%	5.9	26.6%	9.9%	16.8%	2.8%	3.64	3.63	+0.8
2026 TOT	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	114	481	133	52	14	—	—	27.7%	10.8%	16.8%	3.0%	3.37	4.01	+1.9
2026 FULL	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	100	423	133	52	15	—	—	31.4%	12.3%	19.1%	3.5%	3.88	3.90	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	HOU	29	29	176	744	199	75	21	100%	6.1	26.7%	10.1%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	4.04	+2.8
2028	29	MLB	HOU	28	28	168	711	186	73	21	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.3%	15.8%	3.0%	4.12	4.20	+2.4
2029	30	MLB	HOU	26	26	158	668	170	71	21	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.41	+1.8
2030	31	MLB	HOU	25	25	148	623	154	68	21	100%	5.9	24.7%	10.9%	13.7%	3.4%	4.50	4.64	+1.3
2031	32	MLB	HOU	23	23	136	576	137	65	21	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.89	+0.8
2032	33	MLB	HOU	21	21	125	528	122	62	21	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.9%	5.00	5.17	+0.3
2033	34	MLB	HOU	19	19	114	480	106	59	20	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.3%	9.8%	4.2%	5.29	5.48	-0.1
2027	28	MLB	HOU	29	29	176	743	198	75	21	100%	6.1	26.7%	10.1%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+2.7
2028	29	MLB	HOU	28	28	168	709	185	73	22	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.3%	15.8%	3.0%	4.17	4.25	+2.3
2029	30	MLB	HOU	26	26	158	667	170	71	22	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.46	+1.7
2030	31	MLB	HOU	25	25	148	625	154	68	22	100%	5.9	24.7%	10.9%	13.7%	3.5%	4.56	4.70	+1.2
2031	32	MLB	HOU	23	23	136	574	137	65	21	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.3%	12.5%	3.7%	4.80	4.95	+0.7
2032	33	MLB	HOU	21	21	125	528	121	62	21	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	4.0%	5.06	5.23	+0.2
2033	34	MLB	HOU	19	19	114	481	106	59	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.3%	9.8%	4.3%	5.36	5.55	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			292	284	1657	6942	1770	701	224	97%	5.7	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	3.2%	4.16	3.99	+27.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	838	214	85	27	97%	5.7	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	3.2%	4.16	3.99	+3.3
Career	—			158	136	787	3252	866	309	85	86%	5.0	26.6%	9.5%	17.1%	2.6%	3.41	3.49	+17.6
/ 200 IP	—			40	35	200	826	220	78	22	86%	5.0	26.6%	9.5%	17.1%	2.6%	3.41	3.49	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.55	27.5%	8.0%	2.5%	—	4.21	26.1%	15.8%	503	+0.66	—	—	—
Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	23.3%	8.9%	3.2%	.281	4.09	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.06	3.92	287	39
Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.64	22.8%	10.3%	164	+1.24	3.40	330	39
Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	27	SP	3.83	27.4%	7.9%	3.7%	.294	3.76	27.5%	19.6%	469	-0.07	2.88	1,018	38
Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP-	3.58	21.3%	6.6%	2.6%	.249	5.16	17.5%	11.6%	83	+1.58	3.47	824	38
Kenta Maeda R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	28	SP	3.39	25.0%	6.1%	3.0%	.275	3.66	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.27	2.86	1,092	37
Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.16	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.97	2.34	1,876	37
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	28	SP	3.77	20.5%	8.0%	2.5%	.326	4.61	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.84	3.77	786	37
Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	27	SP	3.49	19.7%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	4.42	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.93	3.49	355	37
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	20.3%	8.6%	2.4%	.271	3.50	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.28	2.34	577	36
Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	23.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.308	3.65	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.25	2.79	1,345	36
Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.68	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.47	3.17	938	36
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	27	SP	4.06	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.00	22.7%	10.1%	182	+0.94	3.39	768	36
Tyson Ross R 2027 · 2.82 FIP	28	SP	2.82	25.8%	9.8%	1.2%	.313	4.52	17.6%	6.7%	217	+1.70	2.82	449	36
Wilmer Font R 2026 · 2.78 FIP	27	SP	2.78	28.3%	6.6%	2.2%	.312	4.93	23.3%	15.3%	145	+2.15	2.78	345	36
Jacob deGrom R 2026 · 2.58 FIP	27	SP	2.58	27.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.269	2.68	28.8%	23.0%	566	+0.10	0.75	1,489	35
Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	35
Zack Godley R 2026 · 3.17 FIP	27	SP	3.17	25.9%	9.3%	1.9%	.267	4.11	21.1%	11.2%	299	+0.94	3.17	953	35
Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP	3.48	27.4%	6.9%	3.3%	.334	4.00	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	35
Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP	4.51	20.4%	5.8%	4.4%	.280	3.83	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.68	3.24	592	34
Gerrit Cole R 2026 · 2.43 FIP	27	SP	2.43	34.5%	8.0%	2.2%	.282	2.65	36.3%	30.5%	467	+0.22	2.31	1,763	34

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	151	25.2%	10.5%	1.25	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Chris Archer ('22)	6	164	26.9%	8.3%	1.21	4.10
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04