Hunter Brown — OGILVIE

Hunter Brown P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.62

FIP3.64

K%26.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%16.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD4550

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p780.285

FB+2.3 (62%)

CH (10%)

SI (30%)

CU (19%)

SL (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.0M
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+1.6	$12M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+1.2	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$21M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	25.4%	12.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.04	4.28	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	30.3%	11.5%	18.7%	2.8%	4.04	3.54	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	27.7%	10.7%	16.9%	1.2%	2.28	2.77	+3.3
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	30.8%	10.3%	20.6%	1.0%	2.28	2.38	+4.0
2023	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	4.0%	5.09	4.09	+1.5
2023	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	4.0%	5.09	4.09	+1.5
2023	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.9%	5.09	4.04	+1.6
2024	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.6%	3.49	3.47	+3.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.6%	3.49	3.47	+3.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.5%	3.49	3.43	+3.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.4%	2.43	3.00	+4.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.4%	2.43	3.00	+4.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.3%	2.43	2.98	+4.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			117	109	623	2572	685	224	72	93%	5.3	26.6%	8.7%	17.9%	2.8%	3.49	3.48	+10.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	21	106	440	121	49	13	100%	5.1	25.9%	11.9%	14.0%	2.9%	3.30	4.03	+1.1
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	21	106	440	121	49	13	100%	5.1	25.9%	11.9%	14.0%	2.9%	3.30	4.03	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	HOU	1	1	2	7	5	0	0	100%	2.0	71.4%	0.0%	71.4%	0.0%	0.00	-2.93	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	3	3	12	47	16	3	2	100%	4.1	34.0%	6.4%	27.7%	4.3%	2.19	3.37	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	HOU	17	17	92	386	100	46	11	100%	5.4	25.9%	11.9%	14.0%	2.8%	3.52	3.99	+1.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	HOU	17	17	92	386	100	46	11	100%	5.4	25.9%	11.9%	14.0%	2.8%	3.52	3.99	+1.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	2	2	13	56	15	6	2	100%	6.6	26.5%	10.1%	16.4%	2.7%	3.62	3.64	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	HOU	2	2	13	55	15	6	1	100%	6.5	26.5%	10.1%	16.4%	2.7%	3.58	3.60	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	120	496	136	55	15	—	—	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.9%	3.34	3.99	+1.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	105	445	136	55	14	—	—	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	3.3%	3.79	3.87	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	29	29	176	744	197	76	21	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	2.9%	4.06	4.11	+1.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	28	28	168	711	184	74	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.4%	15.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.27	+1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	26	26	158	668	168	72	21	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.36	4.47	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	HOU	25	25	148	623	152	69	21	100%	5.9	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	3.4%	4.57	4.70	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	HOU	23	23	136	576	136	66	21	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.80	4.96	-0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	HOU	21	21	125	528	120	63	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	4.0%	5.06	5.24	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	29	29	176	743	197	76	21	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	2.8%	4.02	4.07	+1.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	28	28	168	709	184	74	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.4%	15.5%	2.9%	4.13	4.22	+1.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	26	26	158	667	168	72	21	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.7%	14.5%	3.1%	4.31	4.42	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	HOU	25	25	148	625	153	69	21	100%	5.9	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	3.3%	4.52	4.65	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	HOU	23	23	136	574	136	66	21	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.6%	4.74	4.90	-0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	125	528	120	63	20	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	3.9%	5.00	5.18	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		272	264	1548	6478	1659	649	198	97%	5.7	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	3.1%	4.04	3.88	+18.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	837	214	84	26	97%	5.7	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	3.1%	4.04	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		168	146	844	3485	927	332	95	87%	5.0	26.6%	9.5%	17.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.56	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	35	200	826	220	79	23	87%	5.0	26.6%	9.5%	17.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.56	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.64	27.6%	8.0%	2.7%	—	4.28	25.9%	15.5%	503	+0.64	—	—	—
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	68
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	66
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	66
Gerrit Cole R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	27	SP	2.54	34.5%	8.0%	2.5%	.282	2.74	36.3%	30.5%	467	+0.20	2.48	1,829	62
Julio Teheran R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP	4.60	22.4%	11.2%	3.6%	.211	4.75	20.3%	9.7%	206	+0.15	3.61	1,134	58
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	57
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	55
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	53
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	52
Danny Salazar R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	33.0%	10.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	425	50
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	49
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	48
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	47
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,198	47
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	46
Yordano Ventura R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	17.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	349	45
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	45
Kyle Hendricks R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	21.6%	6.8%	3.1%	.279	3.49	20.2%	16.0%	457	-0.36	3.02	1,685	45
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.37	27.5%	22.4%	436	-0.50	2.41	961	45
Zack Godley R 2017 · 3.21 FIP	27	SP	3.21	25.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.267	4.19	21.1%	11.2%	299	+0.98	3.21	953	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	156	25.3%	10.4%	1.24	4.32
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94