Hunter Brown

P Houston Astros

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MLBHOU	31	30	170	3.49	3.43	25.1%	8.4%	4.1
2025	26	MLBHOU	31	31	185	2.43	2.98	28.3%	7.7%	5.7
2026	27	MIX3 levels	24	24	122	3.03	3.54	28.7%	11.5%	2.8	K 27.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.70
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	17	17	100	3.59	3.80	27.9%	9.9%	1.9
2028PROJ	29	MLBHOU	18	18	106	3.77	3.92	27.3%	10.2%	1.8
2029PROJ	30	MLBHOU	16	16	98	3.98	4.13	26.6%	10.5%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 12.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.203First FA2029

2027Arb-2$7M2028Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs81

K%79

FB Velo74

Form2.73 ERA (proj 3.59) · K 34.2% (proj 27.9%) · BB 9.9% (proj 9.9%) ▲▲ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsJacob deGrom (age 28) · Brandon Morrow (age 28) · Jimmy Nelson (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.59

FIP3.80

K%27.9%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%18.0%

Proj IP100

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p7927.5%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+1.9	$15M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$16M		$29M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	25.4%	12.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.04	4.28	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	100	433	131	50	12	79%	4.2	30.3%	11.5%	18.7%	2.8%	4.04	3.54	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	27.7%	10.7%	16.9%	1.2%	2.28	2.77	+4.1
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	126	506	156	52	5	53%	4.2	30.8%	10.3%	20.6%	1.0%	2.28	2.38	+4.8
2023	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	4.0%	5.09	4.09	+2.4
2023	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	29	156	665	178	55	26	94%	5.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	3.9%	5.09	4.04	+2.5
2024	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.6%	3.49	3.47	+4.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.6%	3.49	3.47	+4.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	30	170	712	179	60	18	97%	5.5	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	2.5%	3.49	3.43	+4.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.4%	2.43	3.00	+5.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.4%	2.43	3.00	+5.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	185	729	206	56	17	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.7%	20.6%	2.3%	2.43	2.98	+5.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	122	505	145	58	13	100%	5.1	27.5%	12.2%	15.3%	2.5%	3.03	3.70	+2.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	122	505	145	58	13	100%	5.1	27.5%	12.2%	15.3%	2.5%	3.03	3.70	+2.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	122	505	145	58	13	100%	5.1	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.03	3.54	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	112	639	2637	709	233	72	93%	5.3	26.9%	8.8%	18.1%	2.7%	3.44	3.44	+15.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	17	17	100	422	118	42	11	100%	5.9	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	2.6%	3.59	3.80	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	447	122	45	12	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.2%	17.2%	2.7%	3.81	3.96	+1.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	413	110	43	12	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.5%	16.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.17	+1.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	360	93	39	11	100%	6.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.2%	4.25	4.40	+1.0
2031	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	295	74	33	10	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	3.4%	4.49	4.65	+0.6
2032	33	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	53	223	54	26	8	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.7%	12.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.93	+0.3
2033	34	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	36	152	35	18	6	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.2%	11.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.24	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	106	448	122	45	12	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.2%	17.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.92	+1.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	98	414	110	43	12	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.5%	16.2%	2.9%	3.98	4.13	+1.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	85	359	93	39	11	100%	6.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.1%	4.20	4.35	+1.0
2031	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	74	33	10	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	3.3%	4.44	4.60	+0.6
2032	33	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	53	224	54	26	8	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.7%	12.6%	3.6%	4.70	4.87	+0.3
2033	34	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	35	18	6	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.2%	11.2%	3.9%	4.99	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	187	1086	4526	1197	438	130	96%	5.6	26.5%	9.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.76	3.67	+22.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	833	220	81	24	96%	5.6	26.5%	9.7%	16.8%	2.9%	3.76	3.67	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		171	149	859	3550	952	341	95	87%	5.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	3.37	3.52	+20.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	35	200	826	222	79	22	87%	5.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.2%	2.7%	3.37	3.52	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 12 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.92 (+0.56)K% 34.0% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.04%	—	×0.860	29.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×0.900	5.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 106 IPFIP 2.43 → 2.94 (+0.51)K% 31.5% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.46%	—	×0.880	27.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.56%	—	×1.050	11.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷0.917	×1.100	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 49 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.26 (+0.91)K% 35.0% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.02%	—	×0.810	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.36%	—	×1.100	14.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.074	×1.200	3.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 51 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.29 (+0.59)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.46%	—	×0.880	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.050	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.935	×1.100	3.27%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.16	26.7%	16.2%	289	+0.36	—	—	—
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	59
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	57
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	55
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	55
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	55
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	55
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	55
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	54
Felipe Paulino R 2012 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP	3.35	25.0%	9.6%	2.1%	.283	4.83	15.5%	3.8%	122	+1.48	3.24	554	54
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	53
Garrett Richards R 2016 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP	3.09	23.0%	9.5%	1.3%	.296	3.54	26.4%	17.0%	104	+0.45	2.31	975	53
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.52	21.8%	13.7%	277	+0.47	3.29	777	52
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	52
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2009 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	19.1%	10.2%	3.5%	.374	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	237	-0.36	3.77	790	52
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	52
Joe Ryan R 2024 · 3.26 FIP	28	SP	3.26	27.3%	4.3%	3.5%	.261	3.46	27.1%	21.8%	316	+0.20	2.41	976	52
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	51
Sonny Gray R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP-	3.79	21.1%	9.8%	2.2%	.320	3.21	28.5%	19.1%	367	-0.58	2.55	2,087	51
John Patterson R 2006 · 2.90 FIP	28	SP	2.90	24.7%	4.7%	2.4%	.276	5.82	9.9%	-3.9%	31	+2.92	2.90	454	50
Yu Darvish R 2014 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	30.1%	7.9%	2.1%	.331	3.32	28.6%	21.1%	307	+0.62	1.97	1,798	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	99	26.6%	9.7%	1.12	3.76
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*