Hunter Brown
P
Houston Astros
+1.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 3.3 · 2027
ERA3.67
FIP3.69
xFIP2.42
SIERA2.93
K%26.9%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%18.8%
IP178
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.3peak
2027
K†6570
FB+2.3 (64%)
CH (7%)
SI (31%)
CU (22%)
SL (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 24 | 19 | 100 | 433 | 131 | 50 | 12 | 25.4% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.30 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 16 | 126 | 506 | 156 | 52 | 5 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 2.28 | 2.78 | +3.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 29 | 156 | 665 | 178 | 55 | 26 | 26.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.09 | 4.19 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 30 | 170 | 712 | 179 | 60 | 18 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.40 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 185 | 729 | 206 | 56 | 17 | 28.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 2.43 | 3.01 | +4.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 2 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 85 | 25 | 8 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.61 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 83 | 348 | 102 | 31 | 8 | 29.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.14 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 195 | 57 | 16 | 30.0% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 3.43 | +3.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 140 | 590 | 174 | 52 | 15 | 29.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.47 | 3.50 | +2.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 154 | 48 | 14 | 29.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.55 | 3.60 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 136 | 43 | 13 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.64 | 3.70 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 118 | 39 | 12 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 3.82 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 103 | 36 | 11 | 27.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.94 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 95 | 29 | 10 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.81 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 81 | 26 | 9 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.91 | 3.96 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 26.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 26.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 127 | 748 | 3088 | 830 | 285 | 83 | 26.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.47 | +15.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 34 | 200 | 825 | 222 | 76 | 22 | 26.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.61 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | — | 3.50 | 29.5% | 20.7% | 419 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 38 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 38 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 37 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 36 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 36 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 36 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 36 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 35 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 35 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 35 |
| Ian Mejia R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 373 | 35 |
| Nathan Wiles R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.27 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 399 | 34 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 34 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 34 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 34 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 34 |
| Bruce Billings R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 34 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.38 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.25 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.87 | 3.38 | 262 | 33 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 33 |
| Osvaldo Bido R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .293 | 4.68 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 208 | +0.94 | 3.74 | 713 | 33 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.6 | $13M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $17M | +3.3 | $27M | +$10M |
| Totals | $23M | $40M | +$17M | ||