Jacob deGrom
PosP
B/TL/R
Born1988-06-19
Age (2026)38
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 191 | 751 | 205 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 27.3% | 4.8% | 22.5% | 2.1% | 2.54 | 2.58 | +6.3 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 191 | 751 | 205 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.4 | 27.3% | 4.8% | 22.5% | 2.1% | 2.54 | 2.61 | +6.2 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 24 | 24 | 148 | 604 | 143 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 3.04 | 3.23 | +3.8 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 24 | 24 | 148 | 604 | 143 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 3.04 | 3.21 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 201 | 827 | 239 | 54 | 28 | 100% | 6.5 | 28.9% | 6.5% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 3.53 | 3.35 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 201 | 827 | 239 | 54 | 28 | 100% | 6.5 | 28.9% | 6.5% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 3.53 | 3.34 | +4.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 217 | 835 | 269 | 43 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 32.2% | 5.1% | 27.1% | 1.2% | 1.70 | 1.69 | +9.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 217 | 835 | 269 | 43 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 32.2% | 5.1% | 27.1% | 1.2% | 1.70 | 1.81 | +9.1 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 204 | 804 | 255 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 31.7% | 5.3% | 26.4% | 2.4% | 2.43 | 2.40 | +7.2 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 32 | 204 | 804 | 255 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 31.7% | 5.3% | 26.4% | 2.4% | 2.43 | 2.44 | +7.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 12 | 12 | 68 | 268 | 104 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 38.8% | 6.7% | 32.1% | 2.6% | 2.38 | 2.11 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 12 | 12 | 68 | 268 | 104 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 38.8% | 6.7% | 32.1% | 2.6% | 2.38 | 2.17 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 95 | 334 | 154 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 45.1% | 3.4% | 41.7% | 1.9% | 1.04 | 0.75 | +5.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 95 | 334 | 154 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 46.1% | 3.3% | 42.8% | 1.8% | 1.04 | 1.03 | +4.7 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 77 | 288 | 123 | 12 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 42.7% | 3.3% | 39.3% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 2.00 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 77 | 288 | 123 | 12 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 42.7% | 4.2% | 38.5% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 2.23 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 6 | 6 | 30 | 115 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 5.1 | 39.1% | 3.5% | 35.7% | 1.7% | 2.67 | 1.17 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 6 | 6 | 30 | 115 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 5.1 | 39.1% | 3.5% | 35.7% | 1.7% | 2.67 | 1.39 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 7 | 21 | 80 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.2% | 2.5% | 33.8% | 1.2% | 1.27 | 1.04 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 7 | 21 | 80 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.2% | 2.5% | 33.8% | 1.2% | 1.27 | 1.27 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 30 | 173 | 669 | 185 | 37 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 22.1% | 3.8% | 2.97 | 3.55 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 30 | 173 | 669 | 185 | 37 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 22.1% | 3.9% | 2.97 | 3.56 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 18 | 18 | 101 | 401 | 122 | 20 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 30.4% | 5.0% | 25.4% | 4.0% | 3.49 | 3.35 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 85 | 15 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.0% | 5.3% | 24.8% | 3.8% | 3.21 | 3.29 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 85 | 15 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.0% | 5.3% | 24.8% | 3.8% | 3.24 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 168 | 684 | 207 | 35 | 27 | — | — | 30.3% | 5.1% | 25.2% | 3.9% | 3.38 | 3.33 | +4.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 168 | 708 | 207 | 35 | 27 | — | — | 29.2% | 4.9% | 24.3% | 3.8% | 3.39 | 3.33 | +4.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 131 | 27 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.7% | 6.0% | 22.8% | 4.2% | 3.91 | 4.11 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 108 | 26 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.6% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 4.6% | 4.29 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 96 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.4% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 5.1% | 4.54 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 42 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 85 | 19 | 16 | 100% | 6.3 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 5.5% | 4.74 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 43 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 70 | 18 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.1% | 7.2% | 21.0% | 6.0% | 5.08 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 131 | 27 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.7% | 6.0% | 22.8% | 4.2% | 3.94 | 4.14 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 108 | 26 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.6% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 4.7% | 4.32 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 96 | 22 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 28.4% | 6.6% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 4.57 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 42 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 85 | 19 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 22.8% | 5.6% | 4.78 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 43 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 70 | 18 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.1% | 7.2% | 21.0% | 6.1% | 5.12 | 5.35 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 324 | 324 | 1976 | 7892 | 2405 | 438 | 253 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.5% | 5.6% | 24.9% | 3.2% | 3.02 | 2.99 | +55.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 799 | 243 | 44 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.5% | 5.6% | 24.9% | 3.2% | 3.02 | 2.99 | +5.6 | ||
| Career | — | 253 | 253 | 1526 | 5976 | 1869 | 314 | 157 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.3% | 5.3% | 26.0% | 2.6% | 2.61 | 2.57 | +50.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 783 | 245 | 41 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.3% | 5.3% | 26.0% | 2.6% | 2.61 | 2.57 | +6.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob deGrom (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.68 | 29.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | — | 4.43 | 28.3% | 21.9% | 281 | +0.75 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 58 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 49 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 48 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 31 |
| Aaron Harang R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 30 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 30 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.98 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.89 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.09 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 28 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 27 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 26 |
| Brad Penny R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 26 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.79 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .260 | 3.93 | 23.9% | 15.6% | 256 | +0.14 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 25 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.75 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.17 | 22.9% | 14.6% | 107 | +1.42 | 3.75 | 756 | 21 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 20 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.27 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 199 | 19 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 18 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 18 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 17 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 16 |
| Randy Wolf L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 11 |
| Eric Stults L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 9 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 89 | 28.6% | 6.3% | 1.79 | 4.23 |
| Ian Kennedy ('22) | 7 | 115 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 1.64 | 4.32 |
| Shawn Kelley ('19) | 5 | 46 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 3.65 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Drew Smyly ('24) | 8 | 102 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.72 | 4.58 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |