Clayton Kershaw
PosP
B/TL/L
Born1988-03-19
Age (2026)38
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 33 | 233 | 890 | 301 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 7.1 | 33.8% | 4.6% | 29.2% | 1.8% | 2.13 | 1.81 | +9.8 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 33 | 233 | 890 | 301 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 7.1 | 33.8% | 4.6% | 29.2% | 1.7% | 2.13 | 1.88 | +9.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 152 | 553 | 177 | 10 | 8 | 100% | 6.9 | 31.6% | 1.8% | 29.8% | 1.6% | 1.66 | 1.52 | +6.9 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 152 | 553 | 177 | 10 | 8 | 100% | 6.9 | 32.0% | 1.8% | 30.2% | 1.4% | 1.66 | 1.65 | +6.7 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 180 | 695 | 210 | 30 | 24 | 100% | 6.4 | 29.7% | 4.4% | 25.3% | 3.6% | 2.30 | 3.11 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 180 | 695 | 210 | 30 | 24 | 100% | 6.4 | 30.2% | 4.3% | 25.9% | 3.5% | 2.30 | 3.00 | +5.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 26 | 26 | 161 | 650 | 155 | 29 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 2.73 | 3.17 | +4.2 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 26 | 26 | 161 | 650 | 155 | 29 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 2.73 | 3.09 | +4.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 30 | 189 | 745 | 201 | 43 | 31 | 97% | 6.1 | 26.8% | 5.8% | 21.0% | 4.2% | 3.05 | 3.88 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 30 | 189 | 745 | 201 | 43 | 31 | 97% | 6.1 | 27.0% | 5.8% | 21.2% | 4.2% | 3.05 | 3.79 | +3.6 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 10 | 10 | 58 | 221 | 62 | 8 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.1% | 3.6% | 24.4% | 3.8% | 2.16 | 3.29 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 10 | 10 | 58 | 221 | 62 | 8 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.1% | 3.6% | 24.4% | 3.6% | 2.16 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 125 | 501 | 147 | 21 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 29.5% | 4.3% | 25.2% | 3.3% | 3.61 | 2.94 | +3.6 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 125 | 501 | 147 | 21 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 29.3% | 4.2% | 25.1% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 2.92 | +3.6 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 509 | 144 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 23.1% | 2.1% | 2.28 | 2.52 | +4.4 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 509 | 144 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.3% | 4.7% | 23.6% | 2.2% | 2.28 | 2.54 | +4.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | 24 | 132 | 523 | 137 | 40 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.2% | 7.6% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 2.46 | 3.97 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | 24 | 132 | 523 | 137 | 40 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.2% | 7.6% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 2.46 | 3.81 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 40 | 171 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 4.28 | 3.21 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 40 | 171 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 4.28 | 3.02 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 27 | 134 | 539 | 100 | 40 | 11 | 96% | 4.8 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 3.23 | 3.53 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 27 | 134 | 539 | 100 | 40 | 11 | 96% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 3.23 | 3.57 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 262 | 260 | 1587 | 6256 | 1683 | 327 | 167 | 99% | 6.1 | 26.9% | 5.2% | 21.7% | 2.7% | 2.72 | 2.95 | +45.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 788 | 212 | 41 | 21 | 99% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 5.2% | 21.7% | 2.7% | 2.72 | 2.95 | +5.7 | ||
| Career | — | 258 | 256 | 1533 | 5997 | 1654 | 298 | 167 | 99% | 5.9 | 27.6% | 5.0% | 22.6% | 2.8% | 2.59 | 2.93 | +44.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 782 | 216 | 39 | 22 | 99% | 5.9 | 27.6% | 5.0% | 22.6% | 2.8% | 2.59 | 2.93 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Clayton Kershaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.4% | — | 4.86 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 110 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.75 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.17 | 22.9% | 14.6% | 107 | +1.42 | 3.75 | 756 | 66 |
| Eric Stults L 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 65 |
| Randy Wolf L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.43 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 174 | 63 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 62 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.73 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.73 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.00 | 3.57 | 444 | 61 |
| Barry Zito L 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 58 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 58 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 53 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 52 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 51 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 49 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.79 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .260 | 3.93 | 23.9% | 15.6% | 256 | +0.14 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 49 |
| Mark Buehrle L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.08 | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 199 | 47 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 46 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2024 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 43 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 33 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 32 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 32 |
| Aaron Harang R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 32 |
| Brad Penny R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 30 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 16.9% | 8.3% | 1.07 | 4.31 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |