Max Scherzer
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1984-07-27
Age (2026)42
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 229 | 899 | 276 | 32 | 27 | 100% | 6.9 | 30.7% | 3.6% | 27.1% | 3.0% | 2.79 | 2.61 | +7.5 |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 229 | 899 | 276 | 32 | 27 | 100% | 6.9 | 30.7% | 3.6% | 27.1% | 3.0% | 2.79 | 2.64 | +7.4 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 34 | 34 | 228 | 902 | 284 | 54 | 31 | 100% | 6.7 | 31.5% | 6.0% | 25.5% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 3.09 | +6.2 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 34 | 34 | 228 | 902 | 284 | 54 | 31 | 100% | 6.7 | 31.5% | 6.0% | 25.5% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 3.09 | +6.2 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 201 | 780 | 268 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 34.4% | 6.8% | 27.6% | 2.8% | 2.51 | 2.61 | +6.6 |
| 2017 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 31 | 201 | 780 | 268 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 34.4% | 6.8% | 27.6% | 2.8% | 2.51 | 2.65 | +6.5 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 221 | 866 | 300 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 6.7 | 34.6% | 5.4% | 29.2% | 2.7% | 2.53 | 2.32 | +7.9 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 221 | 866 | 300 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 6.7 | 34.6% | 5.4% | 29.2% | 2.7% | 2.53 | 2.37 | +7.8 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 27 | 27 | 172 | 693 | 243 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 6.4 | 35.1% | 4.5% | 30.6% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 2.13 | +6.6 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 27 | 27 | 172 | 693 | 243 | 31 | 18 | 100% | 6.4 | 35.1% | 4.5% | 30.6% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 2.18 | +6.5 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 12 | 12 | 67 | 295 | 92 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 23.7% | 3.4% | 3.74 | 3.27 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 12 | 12 | 67 | 295 | 92 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 23.7% | 3.4% | 3.74 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 37 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 179 | 693 | 236 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 34.1% | 5.2% | 28.9% | 3.5% | 2.46 | 2.81 | +5.4 |
| 2021 | 37 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 30 | 179 | 693 | 236 | 36 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 34.1% | 5.2% | 28.9% | 3.3% | 2.46 | 2.74 | +5.6 |
| 2022 | 38 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 157 | 614 | 194 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.6% | 4.2% | 26.4% | 2.3% | 2.41 | 2.32 | +5.7 |
| 2022 | 38 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 157 | 614 | 194 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.6% | 4.4% | 27.2% | 2.4% | 2.41 | 2.39 | +5.5 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 27 | 153 | 621 | 174 | 45 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.0% | 7.2% | 20.8% | 4.4% | 3.77 | 4.07 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 27 | 27 | 153 | 621 | 174 | 45 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.0% | 7.2% | 20.8% | 4.5% | 3.77 | 4.09 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 40 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 58 | 235 | 65 | 13 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.4% | 5.6% | 20.8% | 4.5% | 3.86 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 40 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 58 | 235 | 65 | 13 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 22.1% | 4.3% | 3.86 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 41 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 94 | 392 | 94 | 25 | 20 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 6.4% | 16.5% | 5.3% | 4.90 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 41 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 94 | 392 | 94 | 25 | 20 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.0% | 6.4% | 17.6% | 5.1% | 4.90 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 10 | 10 | 36 | 161 | 31 | 16 | 11 | 100% | 3.6 | 13.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 8.8% | 8.58 | 8.15 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 42 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 30 | 125 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 5.1% | 4.85 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 42 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 5.1% | 4.85 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 42 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 286 | 57 | 26 | 17 | — | — | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 6.89 | 6.77 | -1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 42 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 52 | 218 | 57 | 26 | 17 | — | — | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 8.0% | 8.71 | 6.75 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 48 | 205 | 41 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 5.63 | 5.91 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 41 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 5.63 | 5.91 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 298 | 298 | 1824 | 7281 | 2249 | 415 | 248 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.9% | 5.7% | 25.2% | 3.4% | 3.15 | 3.08 | +49.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 798 | 247 | 46 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.9% | 5.7% | 25.2% | 3.4% | 3.15 | 3.08 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 295 | 295 | 1795 | 7151 | 2235 | 402 | 243 | 100% | 6.1 | 31.3% | 5.6% | 25.6% | 3.4% | 3.07 | 3.03 | +49.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 797 | 249 | 45 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 31.3% | 5.6% | 25.6% | 3.4% | 3.07 | 3.03 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Scherzer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | — | 5.91 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 48 | +1.18 | — | — | — |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 53 |
| Tim Hudson R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 49 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.77 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 428 | 46 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 39 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 574 | 36 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 50 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 1.92 | 5.03 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Elieser Hernández ('22) | 5 | 58 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.13 | 5.04 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |