Joe Ryan — OGILVIE

Joe Ryan P Minnesota Twins

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.7 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 143 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.67

FIP3.82

K%26.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%21.1%

ROS IP143

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB+2.8 (54%)

SI (9%)

CU (11%)

SL-1.3 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$14M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$10M	+$0.0M
Totals		$20M		$24M	+$5M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.7M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$13.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	29.2%	6.2%	23.0%	1.8%	1.96	2.41	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	38.0%	5.4%	32.6%	1.5%	1.96	1.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	31.8%	5.0%	26.8%	3.7%	3.59	3.07	+2.1
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	35.0%	4.9%	30.1%	3.7%	3.59	2.84	+2.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.3%	3.48	3.78	+2.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.48	3.71	+2.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.3%	5.1%	24.3%	4.7%	4.45	3.87	+2.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.7%	5.2%	24.5%	4.8%	4.45	3.88	+2.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+2.9
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+2.9
2025	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.49	+2.9
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	25.9%	5.0%	20.8%	3.4%	3.78	3.42	+2.7
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	25.9%	5.0%	20.8%	3.4%	3.78	3.42	+2.7
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	26.1%	5.0%	21.2%	3.5%	3.78	3.46	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	141	786	3217	878	179	122	99%	5.5	27.3%	5.6%	21.7%	3.8%	3.79	3.57	+12.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIN	24	24	143	604	159	32	21	100%	6.0	26.4%	5.3%	21.1%	3.5%	3.67	3.82	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	132	559	143	32	21	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	3.7%	3.91	4.08	+1.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	122	513	127	31	20	100%	6.1	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	4.0%	4.18	4.35	+0.8
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	111	467	111	31	20	100%	6.1	23.8%	6.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.47	4.66	+0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	132	557	142	32	21	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	3.7%	3.92	4.09	+1.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	122	515	127	31	21	100%	6.1	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	4.0%	4.19	4.36	+0.8
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	111	469	112	31	20	100%	6.2	23.8%	6.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.48	4.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	202	1150	4756	1259	273	183	100%	5.7	26.5%	5.7%	20.7%	3.9%	3.91	3.71	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	827	219	47	32	100%	5.7	26.5%	5.7%	20.7%	3.9%	3.91	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		183	179	986	3983	1109	224	140	98%	5.4	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.52	3.39	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	808	225	45	28	98%	5.4	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.52	3.39	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.82	26.4%	5.3%	3.5%	—	4.35	24.7%	18.6%	364	+0.53	—	—	—
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	65
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	58
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	58
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	56
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	56
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	55
Hideo Nomo R 2000 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP	4.66	21.9%	10.6%	3.7%	.303	4.13	22.0%	11.4%	637	-0.53	2.76	1,972	53
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	49
Robert Person R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	31	SP	4.60	21.1%	8.9%	3.9%	.253	5.06	16.0%	2.7%	99	+0.46	3.41	885	48
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	48
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.12	728	46
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	45
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	44
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	40
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	40
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	40
Paul Wilson R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	14.7%	7.3%	3.3%	.278	5.32	13.4%	6.3%	46	+0.75	2.59	942	39
Colby Lewis R 2011 · 4.43 FIP	31	SP	4.43	20.1%	6.6%	4.0%	.262	3.91	19.1%	14.4%	275	-0.52	3.43	1,212	39
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	39
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	39

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	129	26.4%	5.7%	1.47	3.88
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Andrew Heaney ('25)	5.7	103	23.8%	7.0%	1.58	4.57
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24