Joe Ryan
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 3.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8778vR 68
ERA2.96
FIP3.04
K%28.1%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%22.7%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 182 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p8428.4%
xwOBA vs
p840.279
FB+2.8 (56%)
SI (11%)
CU (11%)
SL-1.3 (21%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 124 | 481 | 183 | 26 | 7 | 92% | 5.2 | 29.2% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 1.8% | 1.96 | 2.43 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 124 | 481 | 183 | 26 | 7 | 92% | 5.2 | 38.0% | 5.4% | 32.6% | 1.5% | 1.96 | 1.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 93 | 349 | 122 | 17 | 13 | 95% | 4.9 | 31.8% | 5.0% | 26.8% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 2.93 | +2.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 93 | 349 | 122 | 17 | 13 | 95% | 4.9 | 35.0% | 4.9% | 30.1% | 3.7% | 3.59 | 2.84 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 615 | 155 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 3.48 | 3.77 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 150 | 615 | 155 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.2% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 3.3% | 3.48 | 3.71 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 166 | 687 | 204 | 36 | 33 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.3% | 5.1% | 24.3% | 4.7% | 4.45 | 3.85 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 166 | 687 | 204 | 36 | 33 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.7% | 5.2% | 24.5% | 4.8% | 4.45 | 3.88 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 23 | 135 | 538 | 147 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 4.3% | 23.0% | 3.5% | 3.60 | 3.25 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 23 | 135 | 538 | 147 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 4.3% | 23.0% | 3.5% | 3.60 | 3.26 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 30 | 171 | 689 | 194 | 39 | 26 | 97% | 5.5 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 22.5% | 3.7% | 3.42 | 3.49 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 30 | 171 | 689 | 194 | 39 | 26 | 97% | 5.5 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 22.5% | 3.8% | 3.42 | 3.49 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 20 | 20 | 110 | 450 | 128 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 22.9% | 2.2% | 2.85 | 2.62 | +3.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 71 | 302 | 85 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.1% | 5.5% | 22.7% | 3.0% | 2.96 | 3.04 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 84 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.1% | 5.5% | 22.7% | 3.0% | 2.97 | 3.05 | +1.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 182 | 752 | 213 | 41 | 19 | — | — | 28.3% | 5.5% | 22.8% | 2.5% | 2.90 | 2.79 | +5.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 182 | 768 | 213 | 41 | 19 | — | — | 27.7% | 5.4% | 22.3% | 2.5% | 2.90 | 2.80 | +5.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 171 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 5.8% | 21.5% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 3.67 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 154 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 3.77 | 3.92 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 136 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 6.7% | 19.0% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 115 | 485 | 120 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 7.1% | 17.6% | 4.0% | 4.32 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 103 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 4.63 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 88 | 32 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 4.98 | 5.21 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 80 | 336 | 79 | 27 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 5.1% | 5.20 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 170 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 5.8% | 21.5% | 3.2% | 3.55 | 3.68 | +3.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 153 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 3.5% | 3.78 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 136 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 6.7% | 19.0% | 3.7% | 4.04 | 4.21 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 120 | 35 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.7% | 7.1% | 17.6% | 4.0% | 4.33 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 103 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 87 | 32 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 4.99 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 80 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 5.2% | 5.21 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 281 | 280 | 1624 | 6735 | 1783 | 425 | 255 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.5% | 6.3% | 20.2% | 3.8% | 3.92 | 3.74 | +31.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 220 | 52 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.5% | 6.3% | 20.2% | 3.8% | 3.92 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 175 | 171 | 948 | 3809 | 1076 | 217 | 128 | 98% | 5.4 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 22.5% | 3.4% | 3.40 | 3.28 | +23.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 803 | 227 | 46 | 27 | 98% | 5.4 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 22.5% | 3.4% | 3.40 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Ryan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 27.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | — | 3.92 | 26.5% | 20.3% | 412 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 46 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 28.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .299 | 3.14 | 29.1% | 22.3% | 231 | -0.19 | 2.42 | 811 | 41 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 41 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 2.86 | 28.3% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 3.21 | 29.2% | 23.4% | 340 | +0.35 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 40 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.72 | 23.7% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 494 | +0.84 | 3.72 | 918 | 40 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 39 |
| Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 39 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | .295 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.06 | 3.06 | 1,275 | 39 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 39 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.10 | 23.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 3.32 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 402 | -0.78 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 39 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.11 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 2.6% | .267 | 2.73 | 29.6% | 25.0% | 454 | -0.38 | 2.27 | 1,190 | 39 |
| James Shields R 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.36 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 4.1% | .292 | 5.12 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 517 | +0.76 | 4.36 | 720 | 38 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.88 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .294 | 4.43 | 20.3% | 13.2% | 393 | +0.55 | 3.13 | 942 | 38 |
| Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.78 | 23.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | .288 | 4.23 | 18.0% | 13.4% | 208 | +0.45 | 2.00 | 786 | 37 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 37 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 37 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 37 |
| Masahiro Tanaka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.99 | 19.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | .292 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 18.2% | 48 | +0.07 | 3.33 | 918 | 36 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .279 | 3.41 | 30.7% | 23.5% | 295 | -0.38 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 36 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 35 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 120 | 25.6% | 6.7% | 1.51 | 4.16 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Mike Minor ('22) | 6 | 126 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 1.44 | 4.38 |
| Drew Smyly ('24) | 8 | 102 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.72 | 4.58 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Ian Kennedy ('22) | 7 | 115 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 1.64 | 4.32 |