Joe Ryan

P Minnesota Twins

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBMIN	23	23	135	3.60	3.26	27.3%	4.3%	3.6
2025	29	MLBMIN	31	30	171	3.42	3.49	28.2%	5.7%	4.0
2026	30	MIX2 levels	28	28	148	3.78	3.46	26.1%	5.0%	3.5	K 25.9% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.42
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIN	22	22	130	3.67	3.82	26.4%	5.3%	2.5
2028PROJ	32	MLBMIN	19	19	116	3.92	4.09	25.6%	5.7%	1.8
2029PROJ	33	MLBMIN	17	17	102	4.19	4.36	24.7%	6.1%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.192First FA2028Options2

2027Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%70

xwOBA vs65

FB Velo36

Form4.74 ERA (proj 3.67) · K 23.1% (proj 26.4%) · BB 4.4% (proj 5.3%) · last 60d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsTanner Roark (age 31) · Chase Anderson (age 31) · Kenta Maeda (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.67

FIP3.82

K%26.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%21.1%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$13M	+2.5	$20M	+$7M
Totals		$13M		$20M	+$7M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$12.9M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$13.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	29.2%	6.2%	23.0%	1.8%	1.96	2.41	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	38.0%	5.4%	32.6%	1.5%	1.96	1.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	31.8%	5.0%	26.8%	3.7%	3.59	3.07	+2.7
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	35.0%	4.9%	30.1%	3.7%	3.59	2.84	+3.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.3%	3.48	3.78	+2.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.48	3.71	+3.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.3%	5.1%	24.3%	4.7%	4.45	3.87	+3.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.7%	5.2%	24.5%	4.8%	4.45	3.88	+3.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+3.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+3.6
2024	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+3.6
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+4.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+4.0
2025	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.49	+4.0
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	25.9%	5.0%	20.8%	3.4%	3.78	3.42	+3.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	25.9%	5.0%	20.8%	3.4%	3.78	3.42	+3.6
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	148	624	163	31	22	100%	5.3	26.1%	5.0%	21.2%	3.5%	3.78	3.46	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	141	786	3217	878	179	122	99%	5.5	27.3%	5.6%	21.7%	3.8%	3.79	3.57	+17.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIN	22	22	130	549	145	29	19	100%	5.9	26.4%	5.3%	21.1%	3.5%	3.67	3.82	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	116	492	126	28	18	100%	6.1	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	3.7%	3.91	4.08	+1.8
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	102	430	106	26	17	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	4.0%	4.18	4.35	+1.3
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	85	360	86	24	15	100%	6.1	23.8%	6.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.47	4.66	+0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	116	490	125	28	18	100%	6.1	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	3.7%	3.92	4.09	+1.8
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	102	431	106	26	17	100%	6.0	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	4.0%	4.19	4.36	+1.3
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	85	359	85	24	15	100%	6.1	23.8%	6.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.48	4.67	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	192	1089	4498	1195	257	173	99%	5.6	26.6%	5.7%	20.9%	3.8%	3.90	3.69	+22.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	826	219	47	32	99%	5.7	26.6%	5.7%	20.9%	3.8%	3.90	3.69	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		183	179	986	3983	1109	224	140	98%	5.4	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.52	3.39	+21.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	808	225	45	28	98%	5.4	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.52	3.39	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 66 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.94 (+0.37)K% 36.9% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.95%	—	×0.880	32.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.82%	—	×1.050	5.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.61%	÷1.121	×1.100	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 83 IPFIP 1.04 → 1.98 (+0.94)K% 35.9% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.90%	—	×0.770	27.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.53%	—	×1.150	4.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.939	×1.250	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.04 → 1.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 28 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.95 (+1.14)K% 40.9% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.87%	—	×0.740	30.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.180	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.270	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 13 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.74 (+1.43)K% 44.4% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.810	36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.920	×1.200	4.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.33	24.8%	18.7%	304	+0.51	—	—	—
Tanner Roark R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	19.2%	6.2%	3.2%	.289	4.57	21.1%	13.1%	259	+0.58	2.40	1,194	65
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	58
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	58
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	56
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	56
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	55
Hideo Nomo R 2000 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP	4.66	21.9%	10.6%	3.7%	.303	4.13	22.0%	11.4%	637	-0.53	2.76	1,972	53
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	49
Robert Person R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	31	SP	4.60	21.1%	8.9%	3.9%	.253	5.06	16.0%	2.7%	99	+0.46	3.41	885	48
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	48
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.12	728	46
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	45
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	44
Jeremy Guthrie R 2010 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	13.6%	5.6%	2.6%	.247	4.68	13.2%	6.8%	601	+0.60	4.08	1,834	40
Cory Lidle R 2003 · 4.40 FIP	31	SP	4.40	13.3%	6.8%	2.9%	.297	4.23	15.4%	9.5%	567	-0.17	3.48	1,318	40
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	40
Paul Wilson R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	14.7%	7.3%	3.3%	.278	5.32	13.4%	6.3%	46	+0.75	2.59	942	39
Colby Lewis R 2011 · 4.43 FIP	31	SP	4.43	20.1%	6.6%	4.0%	.262	3.91	19.1%	14.4%	275	-0.52	3.43	1,212	39
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	39
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	39

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	122	26.5%	5.7%	1.47	3.87
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Pascual Perez ('80-'91, 19 WAR*)	6.2	138	21.3%*	6.7%*	1.24*	3.85*
Ed Halicki ('74-'80, 11 WAR*)	5.3	152	22.9%*	7.2%*	1.10*	4.18*