Joe Ryan
P
Minnesota Twins
+2.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 2.2 · 2026
ERA3.89
FIP3.90
xFIP3.79
SIERA3.43
K%27.7%
BB%5.6%
K-BB%22.0%
IP156
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.262
FB+2.8 (57%)
SI (14%)
CU (12%)
SL-1.3 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 24 | 22 | 124 | 481 | 183 | 26 | 7 | 29.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 1.96 | 2.41 | +4.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 19 | 18 | 93 | 349 | 122 | 17 | 13 | 31.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.59 | 3.07 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 28 | 28 | 150 | 615 | 155 | 47 | 20 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.48 | 3.67 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 30 | 166 | 687 | 204 | 36 | 33 | 29.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.45 | 4.11 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 23 | 135 | 538 | 147 | 23 | 19 | 27.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.60 | 3.31 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 30 | 171 | 689 | 194 | 39 | 26 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.42 | 3.52 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 4 | 21 | 85 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 1.2% | 3.80 | 2.45 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 139 | 31 | 17 | 26.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.28 | 3.45 | +2.6 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 145 | 607 | 161 | 37 | 18 | 26.5% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.35 | 3.30 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 143 | 33 | 19 | 26.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.83 | 3.94 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 124 | 30 | 17 | 25.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.96 | 4.05 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 108 | 28 | 16 | 24.7% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.09 | 4.18 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 92 | 25 | 14 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.23 | 4.32 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 85 | 20 | 13 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 72 | 18 | 12 | 24.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.30 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 60 | 16 | 10 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 49 | 15 | 9 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.61 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 155 | 859 | 3444 | 970 | 198 | 122 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.40 | +18.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 802 | 226 | 46 | 28 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.40 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Ryan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 26.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | — | 4.05 | 25.4% | 19.2% | 350 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.48 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.33 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 48 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.48 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .265 | 3.17 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.31 | 2.27 | 1,584 | 47 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.88 | 17.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.09 | 21.5% | 16.0% | 473 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 885 | 45 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 45 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.71 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .285 | 4.61 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +0.90 | 3.71 | 393 | 45 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.31 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -1.02 | 2.25 | 426 | 45 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.53 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .289 | 4.28 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 469 | 45 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.32 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.49 | 4.03 | 365 | 44 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.41 | 16.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.60 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 367 | +0.19 | 4.13 | 810 | 44 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .268 | 4.81 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.49 | 4.32 | 287 | 44 |
| Mickey Jannis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.91 | 15.2% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.1% | 195 | +0.04 | 2.82 | 659 | 44 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | .295 | 3.85 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.13 | 1,196 | 44 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.02 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.83 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.02 | 277 | 44 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 44 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.84 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.44 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 869 | 43 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.63 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .302 | 4.61 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.98 | 3.63 | 469 | 43 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.92 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .294 | 4.47 | 20.3% | 13.2% | 393 | +0.55 | 3.13 | 942 | 43 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 153 | 43 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 4.3% | .235 | 4.99 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 253 | +0.08 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 43 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.70 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 4.37 | 474 | 43 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2021
Service 5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $6M | +2.2 | $18M | +$12M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +2.0 | $16M | +$3M |
| Totals | $19M | $34M | +$15M | ||