Joe Ryan — OGILVIE

Joe Ryan P Minnesota Twins

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.38

FIP3.46

K%26.9%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%21.7%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

FB+2.8 (55%)

SI (10%)

CU (12%)

SL-1.3 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2027	Arb-3	$13M	+1.6	$12M	+$0.3M
Totals		$13M		$13M	+$0.8M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$12.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$13.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	29.2%	6.2%	23.0%	1.8%	1.96	2.41	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	481	183	26	7	92%	5.2	38.0%	5.4%	32.6%	1.5%	1.96	1.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	31.8%	5.0%	26.8%	3.7%	3.59	3.07	+2.1
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	93	349	122	17	13	95%	4.9	35.0%	4.9%	30.1%	3.7%	3.59	2.84	+2.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.3%	3.48	3.78	+2.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	150	615	155	47	20	100%	5.4	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.48	3.71	+2.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.3%	5.1%	24.3%	4.7%	4.45	3.87	+2.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.3%	5.1%	24.3%	4.7%	4.45	3.87	+2.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	166	687	204	36	33	100%	5.5	29.7%	5.2%	24.5%	4.8%	4.45	3.88	+2.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	23	23	135	538	147	23	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	3.5%	3.60	3.26	+2.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+2.9
2025	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.50	+2.9
2025	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	31	30	171	689	194	39	26	97%	5.5	28.2%	5.7%	22.5%	3.8%	3.42	3.49	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			139	138	771	3145	864	176	119	99%	5.5	27.5%	5.6%	21.9%	3.8%	3.77	3.55	+12.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	25	25	133	552	149	28	19	100%	5.3	26.8%	5.2%	21.6%	3.3%	3.66	3.31	+2.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	25	25	133	552	149	28	19	100%	5.3	26.8%	5.2%	21.6%	3.3%	3.66	3.31	+2.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIN	1	1	3	10	4	0	1	100%	3.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	10.0%	3.00	5.21	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	MIN	24	24	130	542	145	28	18	100%	5.4	26.8%	5.2%	21.6%	3.3%	3.68	3.32	+2.5
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	MIN	24	24	130	542	145	28	18	100%	5.4	26.8%	5.2%	21.6%	3.3%	3.68	3.32	+2.5
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	14	59	16	3	2	100%	7.0	26.9%	5.2%	21.7%	3.6%	3.38	3.46	+0.2
ROS	30	MLB CTX	MIN	2	2	14	59	16	3	2	100%	7.0	26.9%	5.2%	21.7%	3.6%	3.39	3.47	+0.2
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	147	611	165	31	21	—	—	27.0%	5.1%	21.9%	3.5%	3.64	3.32	+2.9
FULL	30	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	144	606	165	31	21	—	—	27.2%	5.1%	22.1%	3.5%	3.71	3.37	+2.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	148	627	165	35	23	100%	5.9	26.2%	5.6%	20.7%	3.7%	3.88	4.01	+1.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	137	580	148	35	23	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.0%	19.5%	4.0%	4.11	4.26	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	126	532	131	34	23	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.4%	18.2%	4.2%	4.37	4.54	+0.5
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	485	115	34	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	6.9%	16.8%	4.5%	4.66	4.85	+0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	148	625	164	35	23	100%	5.9	26.2%	5.6%	20.7%	3.7%	3.89	4.02	+1.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	137	578	147	35	23	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.0%	19.5%	4.0%	4.12	4.27	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	126	532	131	34	23	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.4%	18.2%	4.3%	4.38	4.55	+0.5
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	115	486	115	34	22	100%	6.1	23.7%	6.9%	16.8%	4.6%	4.67	4.86	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	228	1312	5428	1438	317	212	100%	5.7	26.5%	5.8%	20.7%	3.9%	3.95	3.75	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	828	219	48	32	100%	5.7	26.5%	5.8%	20.7%	3.9%	3.95	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		180	176	971	3911	1095	221	137	98%	5.4	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.5%	3.50	3.38	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	806	226	45	28	98%	5.4	28.0%	5.6%	22.4%	3.5%	3.50	3.38	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.85	27.4%	5.3%	3.7%	—	4.26	25.5%	19.5%	412	+0.41	—	—	—
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	68
Carlos Carrasco R 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	28.3%	5.5%	2.6%	.300	3.20	29.2%	23.4%	340	+0.35	2.67	1,455	63
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	61
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	60
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	57
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	57
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	57
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	56
Corey Kluber R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	30	SP	3.10	26.4%	6.5%	2.6%	.267	2.73	29.6%	25.0%	454	-0.37	2.26	1,190	55
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	54
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	54
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	52
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	51
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	51
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	50
Johnny Cueto R 2016 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	22.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.288	4.51	20.1%	12.2%	216	+1.66	2.85	1,148	49
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	48
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	47
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	46
Jason Hammel R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	32	SP	3.54	24.2%	5.1%	3.4%	.282	4.31	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.77	3.54	645	46

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	137	25.6%	6.0%	1.54	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63