Jimmy Nelson
P
Oklahoma City Dodgers
Age 37
RHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.39
FIP4.47
K%23.3%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p9037.6%
K%
p9037.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.229
SL+7.9
FB+3.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 30 | 177 | 752 | 148 | 61 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 3.83 | +3.2 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 30 | 177 | 752 | 148 | 61 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.11 | 3.78 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 32 | 179 | 807 | 140 | 84 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 32 | 179 | 807 | 140 | 84 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.76 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 175 | 728 | 199 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 6.5% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 2.87 | +5.2 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 175 | 728 | 199 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 6.5% | 20.9% | 2.2% | 3.49 | 2.82 | +5.3 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 7 | 63 | 288 | 84 | 40 | 8 | 26% | 2.3 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 7 | 63 | 288 | 84 | 40 | 8 | 26% | 2.3 | 29.2% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 5.54 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 1 | 29 | 116 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 | 37.9% | 11.2% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.32 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 1 | 29 | 116 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 | 37.9% | 11.2% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.41 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 31 | 149 | 39 | 33 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 24.7% | -2.0% | 1.6% | 4.40 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 2 | 31 | 149 | 39 | 33 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 22.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 4.40 | 4.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 2 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 132 | 98 | 603 | 2592 | 576 | 231 | 66 | 74% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 3.74 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 33 | 200 | 860 | 191 | 77 | 22 | 74% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 179 | 101 | 655 | 2840 | 642 | 284 | 73 | 56% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 3.86 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 31 | 200 | 867 | 196 | 87 | 22 | 56% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.90 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 20 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 77 |
| Jake Peavy R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 66 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 59 |
| Chris Smith R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 51 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 50 |
| Walter Silva R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 49 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 48 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 47 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.19 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 264 | 46 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2024 · 5.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 5.63 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 261 | 46 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 45 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 44 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 44 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 41 |
| Kameron Loe R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 41 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 40 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 40 |
| Aaron Harang R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 40 |
| James Shields R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 720 | 40 |
| Brad Penny R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 39 |