Jimmy Nelson — OGILVIE

Jimmy Nelson P Oklahoma City Dodgers

Age 37 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.36

FIP4.43

K%23.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p9037.6%

p9037.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.229

SL+7.9

FB+3.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	177	752	148	61	18	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	2.3%	4.11	3.72	+2.5
2015	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	177	752	148	61	18	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	2.4%	4.11	3.78	+2.4
2016	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	179	807	140	84	25	100%	5.6	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.57	+0.7
2016	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	179	807	140	84	25	100%	5.6	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.1%	4.62	4.76	+0.3
2017	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	29	29	175	728	199	47	16	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.5%	20.9%	2.1%	3.49	2.76	+4.8
2017	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	29	29	175	728	199	47	16	100%	6.0	27.3%	6.5%	20.9%	2.2%	3.49	2.82	+4.6
2019	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	7	63	288	84	40	8	26%	2.3	26.9%	14.6%	12.4%	2.9%	5.54	4.28	+0.2
2019	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	7	63	288	84	40	8	26%	2.3	29.2%	13.9%	15.3%	2.8%	5.54	3.98	+0.4
2021	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	1	29	116	44	13	0	4%	1.0	37.9%	11.2%	26.7%	0.0%	1.86	1.32	+1.1
2021	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	1	29	116	44	13	0	4%	1.0	37.9%	11.2%	26.7%	0.0%	1.86	1.41	+1.1
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	31	149	39	33	2	6%	0.9	21.4%	21.1%	0.2%	1.7%	4.40	4.88	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	31	149	39	33	2	6%	0.9	21.4%	21.1%	0.2%	1.7%	4.40	4.88	—
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	2	31	149	39	33	2	6%	0.9	26.2%	22.1%	4.0%	1.3%	4.40	4.63	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			129	95	583	2508	557	221	63	74%	4.5	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	2.5%	4.08	3.73	+8.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	LAD	3	3	20	84	19	9	3	100%	6.7	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.87	+0.0
2027	38	MLB CTX	LAD	3	3	20	84	19	9	3	100%	6.7	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	3.5%	4.74	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	98	603	2592	576	230	66	74%	4.6	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	2.5%	4.10	3.75	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	33	200	860	191	76	22	74%	4.6	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	2.5%	4.10	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		179	101	655	2840	640	278	67	56%	3.7	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	2.4%	4.14	3.73	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	31	200	867	196	85	20	56%	3.7	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	2.4%	4.14	3.73	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jimmy Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	23.2%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.87	22.0%	11.0%	20	+0.44	—	—	—
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	77
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	64
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	59
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	51
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	51
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	50
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	36	SP	4.58	12.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	450	48
Guillermo Moscoso R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP	4.35	12.6%	6.7%	2.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	264	47
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	45
Logan Ondrusek R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	36	SP	4.34	19.2%	7.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	138	44
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	44
Alfredo Simon R 2016 · 5.55 FIP	35	SP-	5.55	12.3%	9.6%	4.1%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	261	43
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	41
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	41
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	40
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	40
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	40
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	40
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	162	37