Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 185 | 785 | 151 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.41 | +4.3 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 185 | 785 | 151 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 3.47 | +4.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 25 | 145 | 592 | 124 | 30 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 5.0% | 15.6% | 3.8% | 3.47 | 4.06 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 25 | 145 | 592 | 124 | 30 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 3.47 | 3.98 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 100% | 2.2 | 25.7% | 2.9% | 22.9% | 8.6% | 13.50 | 6.00 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 100% | 2.2 | 25.7% | 2.9% | 22.9% | 8.6% | 13.50 | 6.70 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 134 | 563 | 130 | 31 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 16.5% | 4.7% | 4.89 | 4.53 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 134 | 563 | 130 | 31 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.1% | 5.5% | 17.6% | 5.2% | 4.89 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 167 | 696 | 167 | 44 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.0% | 6.3% | 17.7% | 3.9% | 3.89 | 4.04 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 167 | 696 | 167 | 44 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.0% | 6.3% | 17.7% | 4.2% | 3.89 | 4.15 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 7 | 34 | 158 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 78% | 3.7 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 7.22 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 7 | 34 | 158 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 78% | 3.7 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 7.22 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 31 | 31 | 168 | 676 | 152 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 16.4% | 3.1% | 3.17 | 3.65 | +3.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 31 | 31 | 168 | 676 | 152 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 3.17 | 3.49 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 25 | 121 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.1% | 4.3% | 13.8% | 4.6% | 6.20 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 25 | 121 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 6.20 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 104 | 435 | 83 | 20 | 16 | 95% | 5.2 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.77 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 104 | 435 | 83 | 20 | 16 | 95% | 5.2 | 19.1% | 4.6% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.08 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 59 | 259 | 56 | 19 | 12 | 50% | 3.3 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.91 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 9 | 59 | 259 | 56 | 19 | 12 | 50% | 3.3 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 4.6% | 4.91 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 5.05 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 173 | 976 | 4106 | 862 | 250 | 147 | 94% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +15.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 841 | 177 | 51 | 30 | 94% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 188 | 1026 | 4320 | 909 | 260 | 157 | 94% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.07 | +15.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 842 | 177 | 51 | 31 | 94% | 5.1 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony DeSclafani (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | — | 5.22 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 28 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 76 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 73 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.48 | 18.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | .254 | 5.90 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 115 | +0.42 | 2.98 | 407 | 69 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .337 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 82 | +0.22 | 3.49 | 869 | 67 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 66 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 65 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 64 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 64 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 63 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 63 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 62 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 61 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 60 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.95 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.72 | 20.7% | 14.3% | 444 | -0.23 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 60 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.56 | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 143 | 59 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2024 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 58 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 57 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 57 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 57 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.19 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 264 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 1.56 | 4.91 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |