Sonny Gray
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 36
RHP
5'10" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 3.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9787vR 78
ERA3.41
FIP3.42
K%23.7%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p5122.3%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
CT+1.7 (20%)
CH (5%)
SI (19%)
CU (17%)
FB (38%)
SL-1.9 (20%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 208 | 831 | 169 | 59 | 17 | 100% | 6.7 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 2.73 | 3.46 | +4.7 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 208 | 831 | 169 | 59 | 17 | 100% | 6.7 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 2.73 | 3.39 | +4.9 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 22 | 22 | 117 | 517 | 94 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 5.69 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 22 | 22 | 117 | 517 | 94 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.69 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 173 | 715 | 166 | 56 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.67 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 173 | 715 | 166 | 56 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 3.58 | +3.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 23 | 130 | 582 | 123 | 57 | 14 | 77% | 4.3 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 4.90 | 3.78 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 23 | 130 | 582 | 123 | 57 | 14 | 77% | 4.3 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.90 | 3.92 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 175 | 708 | 205 | 67 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 2.87 | 3.10 | +4.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 175 | 708 | 205 | 67 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 19.5% | 2.4% | 2.87 | 3.17 | +4.6 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 11 | 11 | 56 | 235 | 72 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 19.6% | 1.6% | 3.70 | 2.80 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 11 | 11 | 56 | 235 | 72 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 19.6% | 1.7% | 3.70 | 2.85 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 159 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 3.62 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 159 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.0% | 8.8% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 3.71 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 123 | 499 | 122 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 3.01 | 3.23 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 123 | 499 | 122 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.4% | 7.2% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 3.01 | 3.16 | +3.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 184 | 754 | 183 | 55 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 2.79 | 2.55 | +6.1 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 184 | 754 | 183 | 55 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 2.79 | 2.57 | +6.1 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 28 | 166 | 671 | 203 | 39 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 24.4% | 3.1% | 3.84 | 3.01 | +4.7 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 28 | 166 | 671 | 203 | 39 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 24.4% | 3.1% | 3.84 | 3.00 | +4.7 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 181 | 753 | 201 | 38 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.7% | 5.0% | 21.6% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 3.32 | +4.4 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 181 | 753 | 201 | 38 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.7% | 5.0% | 21.6% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 3.30 | +4.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 17 | 17 | 96 | 382 | 85 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.3% | 6.3% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 2.54 | 3.45 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 64 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.41 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.42 | 3.43 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 159 | 651 | 149 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 22.9% | 6.1% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 2.89 | 3.44 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 159 | 673 | 149 | 40 | 18 | — | — | 22.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 2.89 | 3.43 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 132 | 556 | 129 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 113 | 478 | 105 | 35 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 97 | 411 | 86 | 33 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 4.75 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 129 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 4.17 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 105 | 35 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.36 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 85 | 33 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 379 | 372 | 2137 | 8889 | 2143 | 668 | 244 | 98% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.52 | +46.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 832 | 201 | 63 | 23 | 98% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 315 | 308 | 1748 | 7235 | 1774 | 553 | 182 | 98% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.38 | +41.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 828 | 203 | 63 | 21 | 98% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sonny Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.60 | 26.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.55 | 22.1% | 14.9% | 342 | +0.95 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 41 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 40 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.42 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 577 | 39 |
| Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 35 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 34 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 34 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 33 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 33 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 32 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 32 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.07 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.27 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.07 | 199 | 31 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 31 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 30 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.47 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 214 | 30 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 30 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 29 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 29 |
| Brad Penny R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 28 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 28 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 27 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 123 | 23.5% | 6.7% | 1.35 | 4.10 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Luis Garcia ('23) | 3 | 113 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 3.63 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |