Sonny Gray
P
Boston Red Sox
+2.4
WAR
Age 36
RHP
5'10" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 2.4 · 2026
ERA3.65
FIP3.66
xFIP4.17
SIERA4.30
K%27.1%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%21.3%
IP151
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p1018.6%
K%
p1013.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.369
CT+1.7 (24%)
CH (6%)
SI (18%)
CU (19%)
FB (34%)
SL-1.9 (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 208 | 831 | 169 | 59 | 17 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 2.73 | 3.57 | +4.1 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 22 | 22 | 117 | 517 | 94 | 42 | 18 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.69 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 29 | 29 | 173 | 715 | 166 | 56 | 19 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.68 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 30 | 23 | 130 | 582 | 123 | 57 | 14 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.90 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 31 | 175 | 708 | 205 | 67 | 17 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 2.87 | 3.16 | +4.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 11 | 11 | 56 | 235 | 72 | 26 | 4 | 30.6% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 3.70 | 2.76 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 27 | 27 | 138 | 588 | 159 | 52 | 19 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 3.59 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 25 | 25 | 123 | 499 | 122 | 36 | 11 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.01 | 3.16 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 184 | 754 | 183 | 55 | 8 | 24.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 2.61 | +5.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 28 | 166 | 671 | 203 | 39 | 21 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.84 | 3.00 | +4.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 181 | 753 | 201 | 38 | 25 | 26.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.28 | 3.44 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 20 | 88 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 12.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 111 | 28 | 16 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.56 | 3.72 | +2.2 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 140 | 595 | 122 | 32 | 19 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.69 | 3.83 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 107 | 30 | 17 | 21.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 88 | 27 | 15 | 20.1% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 24 | 14 | 19.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 40 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 65 | 19 | 12 | 20.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 302 | 295 | 1672 | 6941 | 1700 | 533 | 180 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.43 | +35.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 203 | 64 | 22 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.43 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sonny Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.77 | 25.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.45 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 314 | +0.68 | — | — | — |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.56 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 4.31 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.75 | 3.56 | 577 | 41 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 41 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2028 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.04 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 164 | 40 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.43 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 172 | 40 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.44 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.88 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.44 | 4.44 | 217 | 39 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.89 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 485 | 39 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.18 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | .345 | 3.38 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.18 | 199 | 38 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.47 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 393 | 38 |
| Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.29 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 187 | 37 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.10 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 352 | 37 |
| Brad Penny R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 36 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.83 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 720 | 35 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.36 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 201 | 34 |
| Angel Castro R 2024 · 3.50 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.50 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.3% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 292 | 33 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 24 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 24 |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 645 | 24 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.03 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 123 | 23 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 23 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 283 | 23 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
NTCDEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.4 | $19M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $30M | +1.4 | $12M | -$18M |
| Totals | $41M | $31M | -$10M | ||