Sonny Gray — OGILVIE

Sonny Gray P Boston Red Sox

Age 36 RHP 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION157 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10192vR 84

ERA3.55

FIP3.60

K%23.1%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

CT+1.7 (19%)

CH (6%)

SI (22%)

CU (16%)

FB (39%)

SL-1.9 (20%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.355 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$1M	-$1M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$30.0M / $5.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$30.0M / $10.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$12.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	31	31	208	831	169	59	17	100%	6.7	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	2.2%	2.73	3.52	+3.5
2015	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	31	31	208	831	169	59	17	100%	6.7	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	2.0%	2.73	3.39	+3.9
2016	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	22	22	117	517	94	42	18	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	5.69	4.69	+0.3
2016	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	22	22	117	517	94	42	18	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.5%	5.69	4.57	+0.4
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	173	715	166	56	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.6%	3.32	3.68	+2.6
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	173	715	166	56	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.58	+2.8
2018	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	23	130	582	123	57	14	77%	4.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.3%	4.90	3.79	+1.7
2018	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	23	130	582	123	57	14	77%	4.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.4%	4.90	3.92	+1.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	175	708	205	67	17	100%	5.7	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	2.2%	2.87	3.07	+4.0
2019	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	175	708	205	67	17	100%	5.7	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	2.4%	2.87	3.17	+3.8
2020	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	11	11	56	235	72	26	4	100%	5.1	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	1.6%	3.70	2.78	+1.5
2020	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	11	11	56	235	72	26	4	100%	5.1	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	1.7%	3.70	2.85	+1.4
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	588	159	52	19	100%	5.1	27.0%	8.5%	18.4%	3.1%	4.10	3.58	+2.2
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	588	159	52	19	100%	5.1	27.0%	8.8%	18.2%	3.2%	4.10	3.71	+2.0
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	123	499	122	36	11	100%	4.9	24.0%	7.4%	16.6%	2.2%	3.01	3.24	+2.5
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	123	499	122	36	11	100%	4.9	24.4%	7.2%	17.2%	2.2%	3.01	3.16	+2.6
2023	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	184	754	183	55	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	1.1%	2.79	2.55	+5.6
2023	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	184	754	183	55	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	1.1%	2.79	2.55	+5.6
2023	33	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	184	754	183	55	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	1.1%	2.79	2.57	+5.5
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.4%	3.84	3.13	+3.7
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.4%	3.84	3.13	+3.7
2024	34	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.1%	3.84	3.00	+4.0
2025	35	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.6%	4.28	3.44	+3.2
2025	35	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.6%	4.28	3.44	+3.2
2025	35	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.3%	4.28	3.30	+3.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			321	314	1792	7428	1815	566	188	98%	5.6	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.5%	3.60	3.39	+33.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	157	636	140	42	15	100%	5.8	22.0%	6.6%	15.4%	2.4%	2.76	3.41	+2.9
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	27	157	636	140	42	15	100%	5.8	22.0%	6.6%	15.4%	2.4%	2.76	3.41	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	MLB RAW	BOS	27	27	157	636	140	42	15	100%	5.8	22.0%	6.6%	15.4%	2.4%	2.76	3.37	+2.9
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	BOS	27	27	157	636	140	42	15	100%	5.8	22.0%	6.6%	15.4%	2.4%	2.76	3.37	+2.9
ROS	36	MLB MLE	BOS	2	2	14	61	14	4	2	100%	7.2	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	3.0%	3.55	3.60	+0.2
ROS	36	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	14	59	14	4	2	100%	7.0	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	2.9%	3.51	3.56	+0.2
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	171	697	154	46	17	—	—	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.4%	2.82	3.42	+3.1
FULL	36	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	171	722	154	46	17	—	—	21.3%	6.3%	15.0%	2.3%	2.82	3.38	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	132	556	125	38	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	6.9%	15.6%	3.1%	4.01	4.19	+1.1
2028	38	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	113	478	102	36	17	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.6%	4.38	4.62	+0.4
2029	39	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	97	411	83	34	17	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.3%	11.9%	4.0%	4.78	5.05	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	132	557	125	38	17	100%	6.0	22.4%	6.9%	15.6%	3.1%	3.97	4.15	+1.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	113	477	102	36	17	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.57	+0.4
2029	39	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	97	410	82	34	16	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.3%	11.9%	3.9%	4.72	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		381	374	2149	8935	2138	678	240	98%	5.6	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.71	3.51	+36.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	832	199	63	22	98%	5.6	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.71	3.51	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		325	318	1809	7489	1829	571	192	98%	5.6	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.6%	3.57	3.41	+34.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	35	200	828	202	63	21	98%	5.6	24.4%	7.6%	16.8%	2.6%	3.57	3.41	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sonny Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.69	26.7%	5.5%	3.2%	—	4.58	21.4%	13.9%	342	+0.89	—	—	—
James Shields R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	36	SP	4.85	17.7%	9.0%	3.8%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	720	63
Justin Verlander R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	36	SP	3.14	35.4%	5.0%	4.4%	.215	2.32	27.8%	23.4%	175	-0.82	2.32	1,584	49
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	48
Max Scherzer R 2020 · 3.27 FIP	36	SP	3.27	31.2%	7.5%	3.4%	.351	2.96	31.1%	25.5%	477	-0.31	2.13	1,822	47
Zack Greinke R 2020 · 2.69 FIP	36	SP	2.69	24.5%	3.3%	2.3%	.319	4.52	15.5%	10.9%	450	+1.83	2.56	1,517	47
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	44
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	42
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	41
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	40
John Lackey R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	36	SP	3.51	19.5%	5.4%	2.5%	.291	4.34	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.83	3.51	577	40
Charlie Morton R 2020 · 3.09 FIP	36	SP	3.09	24.7%	5.9%	2.4%	.342	3.38	27.5%	18.4%	521	+0.29	2.52	1,534	36
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	36
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	36
Dan Haren R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	34	SP	4.54	17.2%	4.7%	4.2%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	187	35
Jason Hammel R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	35	SW	4.36	15.8%	6.0%	3.3%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	645	35
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	35
J.A. Happ L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	36	SP	4.83	20.6%	7.1%	4.7%	.276	4.93	19.0%	11.7%	202	+0.10	3.37	1,053	35
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	34
Josh Roenicke R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	34	SP	3.37	18.0%	5.8%	1.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	283	33
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	33

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	123	23.0%	6.9%	1.34	4.13
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24