Sonny Gray

P Boston Red Sox

Age 37 RHP 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 13.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	34	MLBSTL	28	28	166	3.84	3.00	30.3%	5.8%	5.0
2025	35	MLBSTL	32	32	181	4.28	3.30	26.7%	5.0%	4.7
2026	36	MLBBOS	29	29	169	2.72	3.38	21.8%	6.7%	4.2
2027PROJ	37	MLBBOS	20	20	122	3.75	3.87	23.4%	6.2%	2.2
2028PROJ	38	MLBBOS	14	14	84	4.03	4.26	22.3%	6.9%	1.1
2029PROJ	39	MLBBOS	8	8	50	4.43	4.69	21.1%	7.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 13.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service13.355First FA2028Options5NTC

2027Ext / FA-deal$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs59

K%47

FB Velo10

Form2.13 ERA (proj 3.75) · K 21.6% (proj 23.4%) · BB 9.3% (proj 6.2%) ▼ last 60d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 37) · Masato Yoshii (age 37) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.75

FIP3.87

K%23.4%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%17.3%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 13.355 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+2.2	$18M	+$3M
Totals		$14M		$18M	+$3M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$14.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$30.0M / $5.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$30.0M / $10.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$14.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$12.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	12	10	64	261	67	20	4	83%	5.3	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.7%	2.67	2.83	+2.1
2013	23	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	12	10	64	261	67	20	4	83%	5.3	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.5%	2.67	2.76	+2.1
2014	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	33	33	219	899	183	72	15	100%	6.6	20.4%	8.0%	12.3%	1.8%	3.08	3.40	+5.4
2014	24	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	33	33	219	899	183	72	15	100%	6.6	20.4%	8.0%	12.3%	1.7%	3.08	3.31	+5.7
2015	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	31	31	208	831	169	59	17	100%	6.7	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	2.2%	2.73	3.52	+4.8
2015	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	31	31	208	831	169	59	17	100%	6.7	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	2.0%	2.73	3.39	+5.2
2016	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	22	22	117	517	94	42	18	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	5.69	4.69	+1.0
2016	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	22	22	117	517	94	42	18	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.5%	5.69	4.57	+1.1
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	173	715	166	56	19	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	2.6%	3.32	3.68	+3.6
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	173	715	166	56	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	2.7%	3.32	3.58	+3.8
2018	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	23	130	582	123	57	14	77%	4.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.3%	4.90	3.79	+2.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	23	130	582	123	57	14	77%	4.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.4%	4.90	3.92	+2.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	175	708	205	67	17	100%	5.7	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	2.2%	2.87	3.07	+5.1
2019	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	175	708	205	67	17	100%	5.7	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	2.4%	2.87	3.17	+4.9
2020	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	11	11	56	235	72	26	4	100%	5.1	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	1.6%	3.70	2.78	+1.8
2020	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	11	11	56	235	72	26	4	100%	5.1	30.6%	11.1%	19.6%	1.7%	3.70	2.85	+1.8
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	588	159	52	19	100%	5.1	27.0%	8.5%	18.4%	3.1%	4.10	3.58	+3.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	588	159	52	19	100%	5.1	27.0%	8.8%	18.2%	3.2%	4.10	3.71	+2.8
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	123	499	122	36	11	100%	4.9	24.0%	7.4%	16.6%	2.2%	3.01	3.24	+3.3
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	123	499	122	36	11	100%	4.9	24.4%	7.2%	17.2%	2.2%	3.01	3.16	+3.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	184	754	183	55	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	1.1%	2.79	2.55	+6.7
2023	33	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	184	754	183	55	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	1.1%	2.79	2.57	+6.7
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.4%	3.84	3.13	+4.7
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.4%	3.84	3.13	+4.7
2024	34	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	166	671	203	39	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	5.8%	24.4%	3.1%	3.84	3.00	+5.0
2025	35	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.6%	4.28	3.44	+4.3
2025	35	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.6%	4.28	3.44	+4.3
2025	35	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	32	32	181	753	201	38	25	100%	5.6	26.7%	5.0%	21.6%	3.3%	4.28	3.30	+4.7
2026	36	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	29	29	169	683	149	46	16	100%	5.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.4%	2.72	3.43	+4.1
2026	36	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	29	29	169	683	149	46	16	100%	5.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.4%	2.72	3.43	+4.1
2026	36	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	29	29	169	683	149	46	16	100%	5.8	21.8%	6.7%	15.1%	2.3%	2.72	3.38	+4.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			368	359	2087	8635	2074	662	208	98%	5.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.4%	2.4%	3.51	3.36	+52.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	BOS	20	20	122	515	121	32	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	6.2%	17.3%	2.9%	3.75	3.87	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	84	353	79	24	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	3.4%	4.08	4.31	+1.1
2029	39	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	50	209	44	16	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	3.8%	4.48	4.74	+0.4
2028	38	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	84	355	79	24	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.9%	15.4%	3.3%	4.03	4.26	+1.1
2029	39	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	50	211	45	16	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	3.7%	4.43	4.69	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		390	381	2220	9197	2197	702	227	98%	5.7	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.5%	3.55	3.41	+54.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	829	198	63	20	98%	5.7	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.5%	3.55	3.41	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		372	363	2104	8696	2088	667	214	98%	5.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.5%	3.48	3.39	+53.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	827	199	63	20	98%	5.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.5%	3.48	3.39	+4.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 6 IPFIP 0.29 → 0.62 (+0.34)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.050	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.868	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 0.29 → 0.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sonny Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.47	21.9%	14.7%	133	+0.60	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP	3.66	18.7%	5.5%	2.6%	.277	3.42	18.0%	13.3%	400	-0.24	2.96	1,319	69
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	50
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	42
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	40
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	35
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	29
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	24
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.14	259	23
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	15
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	13
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	7
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	5
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.7	138	23.9%	7.6%	0.97	3.56
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Sonny Siebert ('64-'75, 28 WAR*)	10.8	179	22.1%*	7.5%*	1.17*	3.86*
Rudy May ('65-'83, 28 WAR*)	13.1	175	23.4%*	8.6%*	1.00*	4.17*