Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 50 | 198 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 14.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.08 | 4.08 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 50 | 198 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 3.08 | 3.02 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 19 | 124 | 515 | 137 | 41 | 10 | 70% | 4.6 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 3.24 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 19 | 124 | 515 | 137 | 41 | 10 | 70% | 4.6 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 2.93 | +3.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 17 | 94 | 412 | 112 | 37 | 17 | 68% | 3.8 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 3.7% | 5.74 | 3.96 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 17 | 94 | 412 | 112 | 37 | 17 | 68% | 3.8 | 27.2% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 4.1% | 5.74 | 4.25 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 147 | 613 | 158 | 41 | 32 | 89% | 5.2 | 25.8% | 6.6% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 4.16 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 147 | 613 | 158 | 41 | 32 | 89% | 5.2 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 19.1% | 5.2% | 4.16 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 102 | 427 | 105 | 29 | 17 | 75% | 4.3 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 4.49 | 4.03 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 102 | 427 | 105 | 29 | 17 | 75% | 4.3 | 24.6% | 6.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 19 | 93 | 367 | 69 | 20 | 11 | 95% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 2.91 | 4.15 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 19 | 93 | 367 | 69 | 20 | 11 | 95% | 4.6 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 2.91 | 3.80 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 20 | 19 | 109 | 444 | 114 | 34 | 20 | 95% | 5.4 | 25.7% | 7.7% | 18.0% | 4.2% | 4.56 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 20 | 19 | 109 | 444 | 114 | 34 | 20 | 95% | 5.4 | 25.7% | 7.7% | 18.0% | 4.5% | 4.56 | 4.33 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 17 | 100 | 447 | 96 | 48 | 17 | 74% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 5.51 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 17 | 100 | 447 | 96 | 48 | 17 | 74% | 4.3 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.51 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 48 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 45 | 188 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.44 | 5.66 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.12 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.44 | 5.66 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 107 | 637 | 2681 | 638 | 215 | 115 | 79% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 4.65 | 4.45 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 33 | 200 | 841 | 200 | 67 | 36 | 79% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 4.3% | 4.65 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 177 | 144 | 818 | 3423 | 793 | 266 | 128 | 81% | 4.6 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 837 | 194 | 65 | 31 | 81% | 4.6 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Domingo Germán (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 3.7% | — | 5.48 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 94 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 71 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 68 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 68 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 68 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 68 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 33 | SP | 6.00 | 22.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | .194 | 4.84 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 131 | -1.16 | 3.24 | 592 | 66 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 66 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 66 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 65 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 63 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.62 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 682 | 63 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.14 | 22.1% | 12.6% | 4.2% | .207 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 811 | 62 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 62 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 61 |
| Jordan Zimmermann R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.57 | 16.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 731 | 61 |
| Kameron Loe R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 61 |
| Tyson Ross R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.80 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 449 | 61 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 61 |
| Elih Villanueva R 2024 · 5.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.43 | 14.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 225 | 61 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 50 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 1.54 | 5.11 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |