Albert Suárez

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 37 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MIX2 levels	35	25	149	3.93	3.95	19.8%	6.8%	2.6	K 19.5% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.00
2025	35	MIX3 levels	10	4	24	2.96	3.26	15.8%	7.4%	0.4	K 15.8% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.28
2026	36	MIX2 levels	34	3	80	3.50	4.10	18.5%	7.3%	0.4	K 17.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	37	MLBBAL	47	0	49	4.27	4.47	18.9%	7.4%	0.0
2028PROJ86% MLB	38	MLBBAL	17	0	18	4.65	4.90	17.7%	8.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	39	MLBBAL	6	0	6	5.06	5.34	16.6%	8.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs51

FB Velo37

K%18

Form4.26 ERA (proj 4.27) · K 17.9% (proj 18.9%) · BB 6.4% (proj 7.4%) · last 90d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsLogan Duran (age 37) · Jonathan Castellanos (age 37) · Masato Yoshii (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.27

FIP4.47

K%18.9%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	163	652	121	40	14	100%	6.0	15.0%	6.7%	8.3%	2.5%	2.98	4.07	—
2015	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	163	652	121	40	14	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.1%	12.4%	2.1%	2.98	3.47	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	130	550	93	35	14	61%	4.2	16.1%	6.5%	9.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.06	+2.1
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	130	550	93	35	14	61%	4.2	16.9%	6.4%	10.5%	2.5%	4.30	3.88	+2.4
2017	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	6	45	191	45	12	6	25%	1.9	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	3.2%	4.96	3.58	+0.5
2017	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	6	45	191	45	12	6	25%	1.9	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	3.1%	4.96	3.63	+0.5
2018	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	31	4	63	286	51	33	8	13%	2.0	15.7%	12.1%	3.6%	2.9%	4.97	4.93	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	31	4	63	286	51	33	8	13%	2.0	17.8%	11.5%	6.3%	2.8%	4.97	4.69	—
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	25	149	630	125	43	19	71%	4.3	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	3.93	4.00	+2.5
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	25	149	630	125	43	19	71%	4.3	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	3.93	4.00	+2.5
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	25	149	630	125	43	19	71%	4.3	19.8%	6.8%	13.0%	3.0%	3.93	3.95	+2.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	4	24	95	15	7	1	40%	2.4	15.8%	7.4%	8.4%	1.1%	2.96	3.28	+0.4
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	4	24	95	15	7	1	40%	2.4	15.8%	7.4%	8.4%	1.1%	2.96	3.28	+0.4
2025	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	4	24	95	15	7	1	40%	2.4	15.8%	7.4%	8.4%	1.1%	2.96	3.26	+0.4
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	3	80	330	61	24	10	9%	2.3	17.8%	7.2%	10.7%	3.0%	3.50	4.14	+0.4
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	3	80	330	61	24	10	9%	2.3	17.8%	7.2%	10.7%	3.0%	3.50	4.14	+0.4
2026	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	3	80	330	61	24	10	9%	2.3	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.0%	3.50	4.10	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	37	324	1361	252	93	40	35%	3.1	18.5%	6.8%	11.7%	2.9%	3.97	4.01	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	BAL	47	0	49	207	39	15	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.0%	4.27	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	BAL	20	0	21	88	16	7	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.1%	9.7%	3.5%	4.65	4.90	-0.1
2029	39	MLB MLE	BAL	8	0	8	35	6	3	1	0%	1.0	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	3.9%	5.06	5.34	-0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	BAL	17	0	18	76	13	6	3	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.1%	9.7%	3.5%	4.65	4.90	-0.1
2029	39	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	3.9%	5.06	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	37	348	1461	270	101	44	29%	2.7	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.03	4.06	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		73	21	200	840	155	58	25	29%	2.7	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.03	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		192	88	654	2734	476	201	76	46%	3.4	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	2.8%	3.85	4.09	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	27	200	836	145	61	23	46%	3.4	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	2.8%	3.85	4.09	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 17 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.94 (+0.35)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.06%	—	×0.860	18.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×0.900	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 11 IPFIP 3.64 → 3.63 (−0.01)K% 12.8% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.82%	—	×0.860	11.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×0.900	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.945	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 15 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.24 (+0.47)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.860	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.54%	—	×0.900	1.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.40%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAReno Aces · 63 IPFIP 4.59 → 4.93 (+0.34)K% 17.8% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.83%	—	×0.880	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.050	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.044	×1.100	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+San Jose Giants · 6 IPFIP 2.52 → 2.88 (+0.35)K% 13.6% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.770	10.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Giants · 5 IPFIP 8.09 → 10.74 (+2.65)K% 13.6% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.680	9.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	9.09%	÷1.000	×1.400	12.73%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.09 → 10.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASacramento River Cats · 46 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.43 (+0.26)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.18%	—	×1.050	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.082	×1.100	1.56%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAArkansas Travelers · 163 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.07 (+0.58)K% 18.6% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.56%	—	×0.810	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.13%	—	×1.100	6.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.022	×1.200	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Albert Suárez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.9%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.90	17.7%	9.7%	21	+0.43	—	—	—
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	56
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	56
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	53
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	52
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	51
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	47
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	46
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	46
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	44
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	44
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	44
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	43
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	43
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	43
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	41
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	40
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	36
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	35
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	33
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	57	18.5%	7.5%	1.16	4.07
Max Leon ('73-'78, 2 WAR*)	1.6	62	18.3%*	7.1%*	1.26*	3.96*
Manny Sarmiento ('76-'83, 4 WAR*)	2.6	86	18.9%*	8.1%*	1.20*	4.00*
Steve Crawford ('80-'91, 3 WAR*)	2.8	63	18.2%*	7.4%*	1.04*	4.28*
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Alfredo Aceves ('14)	1.9	76	17.6%	8.1%	1.14	3.83
Donne Wall ('02)	2.4	59	16.1%	7.7%	1.18	4.20