Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 8 | 8 | 22 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 1.97 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 8 | 8 | 22 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 27.8% | 5.6% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 1.51 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 36 | 14 | 110 | 474 | 104 | 38 | 18 | 39% | 3.0 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.02 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 36 | 14 | 110 | 474 | 104 | 38 | 18 | 39% | 3.0 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 4.02 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 170 | 698 | 152 | 51 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.09 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 170 | 698 | 152 | 51 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 31 | 172 | 750 | 184 | 53 | 41 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 5.1% | 5.45 | 4.71 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 31 | 172 | 750 | 184 | 53 | 41 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 5.5% | 5.45 | 4.99 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 30 | 30 | 162 | 700 | 162 | 58 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.79 | 4.31 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 30 | 30 | 162 | 700 | 162 | 58 | 29 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.1% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 4.1% | 4.79 | 4.50 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 11 | 11 | 66 | 267 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 6.0% | 21.0% | 1.9% | 3.29 | 2.65 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 11 | 11 | 66 | 267 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 6.0% | 21.0% | 1.9% | 3.29 | 2.63 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 23 | 19 | 91 | 397 | 84 | 34 | 20 | 83% | 3.9 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 6.06 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 23 | 19 | 91 | 397 | 84 | 34 | 20 | 83% | 3.9 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 6.06 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 29 | 140 | 595 | 94 | 28 | 24 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 4.89 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 29 | 140 | 595 | 94 | 28 | 24 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 4.89 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 6 | 25 | 121 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 100% | 4.2 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.08 | 8.53 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 6 | 25 | 121 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 100% | 4.2 | 17.4% | 5.8% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.08 | 8.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 54 | 226 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.42 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.42 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 184 | 1040 | 4435 | 959 | 333 | 185 | 88% | 5.0 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 4.51 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 35 | 200 | 853 | 184 | 64 | 36 | 88% | 5.0 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 202 | 176 | 956 | 4092 | 891 | 291 | 169 | 87% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.43 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 856 | 186 | 61 | 35 | 87% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Bundy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.3% | — | 5.27 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 131 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 77 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 71 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 70 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.63 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .360 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 16.2% | 244 | -0.15 | 2.27 | 1,190 | 69 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 68 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 68 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.59 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .298 | 4.80 | 13.8% | 7.2% | 66 | +1.21 | 3.59 | 455 | 68 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.62 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 682 | 67 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 67 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 67 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 67 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 66 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 66 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 66 |
| Chris Smith R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.55 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 285 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 413 | 65 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 64 |
| Tyson Ross R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.80 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 449 | 63 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.45 | 4.90 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |