César Valdez
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 41
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.69
FIP4.74
K%18.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP165
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1085.3
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | 23 | 23 | 161 | 653 | 161 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 21.7% | 4.0% | 17.7% | 1.5% | 2.63 | 2.59 | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | 23 | 23 | 161 | 653 | 161 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 24.7% | 3.8% | 20.8% | 1.4% | 2.63 | 2.29 | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 18 | 138 | 556 | 114 | 12 | 8 | 60% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 2.3% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 2.67 | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 18 | 138 | 556 | 114 | 12 | 8 | 60% | 4.6 | 20.5% | 2.2% | 18.3% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 2.46 | — |
| 2017 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 102 | 428 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 67% | 4.2 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 3.98 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 102 | 428 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 67% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 3.64 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 23 | 23 | 148 | 587 | 122 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.3% | 3.0% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 2.26 | 3.00 | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 23 | 23 | 148 | 587 | 122 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.8% | 2.9% | 17.9% | 1.0% | 2.26 | 2.32 | — |
| 2020 | 35 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 9 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 0.0% | 1.26 | 1.91 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 35 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 9 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 17.0% | 0.0% | 1.26 | 2.05 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 57 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 57 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 147 | 591 | 123 | 22 | 14 | 96% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.55 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 147 | 591 | 123 | 22 | 14 | 96% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.11 | +3.9 |
| 2023 | 38 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 33 | 16 | 114 | 524 | 94 | 32 | 21 | 48% | 3.5 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 6.95 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 38 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 33 | 16 | 114 | 524 | 94 | 32 | 21 | 48% | 3.5 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 6.95 | 4.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 41 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 165 | 697 | 126 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 7.5 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 42 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 142 | 599 | 104 | 54 | 22 | 100% | 7.5 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 42 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.12 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 4 | 92 | 408 | 78 | 25 | 15 | 7% | 1.5 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 5.77 | 4.28 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 9 | 200 | 887 | 170 | 54 | 33 | 7% | 1.5 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 5.77 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 214 | 119 | 883 | 3652 | 679 | 153 | 88 | 56% | 4.1 | 18.6% | 4.2% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.39 | +20.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 27 | 200 | 827 | 154 | 35 | 20 | 56% | 4.1 | 18.6% | 4.2% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.39 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| César Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.12 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 142 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Tim Hudson R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 60 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 56 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 41 | SP | 4.85 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% | .276 | 4.44 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 190 | -0.41 | 4.31 | 574 | 53 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 45 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2023 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 44 |
| Francisco Campos R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 42 |
| Walter Silva R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 40 | SP | 3.68 | 10.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | .292 | 4.77 | 9.7% | 0.9% | 118 | +1.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 36 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.64 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.46 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.82 | 3.92 | 375 | 35 |
| Rafael Diaz R 2029 · 3.91 FIP | 44 | SW | 3.91 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | .301 | 3.13 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 152 | -0.78 | 3.09 | 215 | 31 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.73 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 444 | 25 |
| Jason Lane L 2023 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 15 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 41 | SU | 3.82 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.07 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 48 | +0.25 | 2.67 | 295 | 14 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 13 |
| Jose Valverde R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 41 | SU | 5.20 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 122 | 10 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 7 |
| Jason Grilli R 2025 · 5.63 FIP | 40 | SU | 5.63 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 133 | 6 |
| Luis Ayala R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 1 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 153 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 1.30 | 4.80 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |