César Valdez
P
Salt Lake Bees
+0.2
WAR
Age 41
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP3.11
SIERA0.93
K%21.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%12.8%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†3030
FB Velo
p1085.3
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | 23 | 23 | 161 | 653 | 161 | 25 | 9 | 21.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 2.63 | 2.60 | +4.9 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 18 | 138 | 556 | 114 | 12 | 8 | 18.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 2.69 | +4.1 |
| 2017 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | 16 | 102 | 428 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 3.92 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 23 | 23 | 148 | 587 | 122 | 17 | 6 | 18.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.26 | 2.73 | +4.3 |
| 2020 | 35 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 9 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 22.6% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 1.26 | 1.91 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 36 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 48 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 57 | 14 | 8 | 21.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 3.41 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 37 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 24 | 23 | 147 | 591 | 123 | 22 | 14 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.51 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 38 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 33 | 16 | 114 | 524 | 94 | 32 | 21 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.95 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 41 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 58 | 31 | 12 | 15.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 42 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 53 | 30 | 11 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 214 | 119 | 883 | 3652 | 679 | 153 | 84 | 18.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.33 | +19.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 27 | 200 | 827 | 154 | 35 | 19 | 18.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| César Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 15.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.08 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 82 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Tim Hudson R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 80 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 67 |
| Francisco Campos R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 65 |
| Rafael Diaz R 2029 · 4.05 FIP | 44 | SW | 4.05 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.16 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 152 | -0.89 | 3.06 | 215 | 51 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 40 | SW | 4.46 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 164 | 47 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 41 | SW | 3.93 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.89 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 48 | -0.04 | 2.67 | 295 | 44 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.38 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 5.22 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.84 | 4.03 | 375 | 41 |
| Jose Valverde R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 41 | SU | 5.46 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.20 | 122 | 37 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 41 | SP | 4.92 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .276 | 4.51 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 190 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 574 | 37 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 37 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 444 | 33 |
| Luis Ayala R 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 32 |
| Jason Grilli R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 40 | SU | 5.70 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.03 | 133 | 29 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 13 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 41 | SU | 4.55 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 12 |
| Jason Lane L 2023 · 5.59 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.59 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.59 | 164 | 11 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.