César Valdez — OGILVIE

César Valdez P Salt Lake Bees

Age 41 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.68

FIP4.72

K%17.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1085.3

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	30	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	23	23	161	653	161	25	9	100%	7.0	21.7%	4.0%	17.7%	1.5%	2.63	2.60	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Olmecas de Tabasco	23	23	161	653	161	25	9	100%	7.0	24.7%	3.8%	20.8%	1.4%	2.63	2.29	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	30	18	138	556	114	12	8	60%	4.6	18.0%	2.3%	15.8%	1.5%	3.12	2.70	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	30	18	138	556	114	12	8	60%	4.6	20.5%	2.2%	18.3%	1.4%	3.12	2.46	—
2017	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	102	428	77	22	11	67%	4.2	16.4%	5.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.50	3.91	+1.2
2017	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	102	428	77	22	11	67%	4.2	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	2.6%	4.50	3.64	+1.6
2019	34	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	23	23	148	587	122	17	6	100%	6.4	18.3%	3.0%	15.2%	1.4%	2.26	2.72	—
2019	34	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	23	23	148	587	122	17	6	100%	6.4	20.8%	2.9%	17.9%	1.0%	2.26	2.32	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	9	0	14	53	12	3	0	0%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	1.26	1.91	+0.5
2020	35	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	9	0	14	53	12	3	0	0%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	1.26	2.05	+0.4
2021	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	260	57	14	8	0%	1.2	21.4%	5.4%	15.9%	2.8%	4.91	3.51	+0.7
2021	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	260	57	14	8	0%	1.2	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	3.1%	4.91	3.65	+0.6
2022	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	147	591	123	22	14	96%	6.1	18.5%	3.9%	14.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.51	+2.5
2022	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	147	591	123	22	14	96%	6.1	20.8%	3.7%	17.1%	2.4%	3.97	3.11	+3.3
2023	38	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	14.9%	5.5%	9.4%	4.4%	6.95	4.95	—
2023	38	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	14.9%	5.5%	9.4%	4.4%	6.95	4.95	—
2023	38	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	17.9%	6.1%	11.8%	4.0%	6.95	4.69	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	4	92	408	78	25	15	7%	1.5	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.7%	5.77	4.34	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	41	MLB	LAA	2	2	14	59	11	5	2	100%	7.0	17.9%	8.1%	9.9%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	42	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	142	599	103	52	22	100%	7.5	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	3.6%	4.92	5.11	-0.3
2027	42	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	3.6%	4.92	5.11	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	4	92	408	78	25	15	7%	1.5	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.7%	5.77	4.28	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		130	9	200	887	170	54	33	7%	1.5	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.7%	5.77	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		214	119	883	3652	674	148	85	56%	4.1	18.5%	4.1%	14.4%	2.3%	3.77	3.33	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	27	200	827	153	34	19	56%	4.1	18.5%	4.1%	14.4%	2.3%	3.77	3.33	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
César Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	17.9%	8.1%	3.2%	—	5.11	17.2%	8.5%	142	+0.39	—	—	—
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	60
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	53
R.A. Dickey R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	41	SP	4.85	17.3%	8.7%	3.9%	.276	4.44	16.7%	8.8%	190	-0.41	4.31	574	48
Bartolo Colon R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	42	SP	3.67	16.7%	2.3%	3.1%	.302	4.60	14.5%	10.2%	481	+0.93	3.67	676	45
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	44
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	42
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	428	36
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	35
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	32
Jose Contreras R 2015 · 3.55 FIP	43	SP	3.55	20.2%	8.3%	2.0%	.263	2.96	20.5%	13.4%	57	-0.59	2.96	111	31
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	25
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	16
Joaquín Benoit R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	40	SU	4.48	21.6%	9.9%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	164	12
Fernando Rodney R 2018 · 3.89 FIP	41	SU	3.89	24.6%	10.9%	2.7%	.311	4.07	23.3%	10.4%	48	+0.18	2.69	295	11
Jose Valverde R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	41	SU	5.47	14.9%	6.1%	5.2%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	122	9
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	7
Jason Grilli R 2017 · 5.58 FIP	40	SU	5.58	26.1%	9.8%	6.3%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.05	133	5
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	1
Horacio Ramirez L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	39	SU	4.65	5.7%	6.0%	2.3%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	199	0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	153	17.6%	8.4%	1.30	4.79
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12