Zach Neal
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.1
WAR
Age 37
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.47
FIP4.67
xFIP4.83
SIERA4.84
K%21.3%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.8%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1089.0
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.405
CH-0.6
CT-1.1
FB-3.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 27 | 168 | 713 | 100 | 35 | 17 | 12.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 17 | 132 | 535 | 59 | 14 | 14 | 10.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.76 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 27 | 16 | 114 | 478 | 53 | 10 | 14 | 10.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 14 | 102 | 438 | 68 | 15 | 16 | 13.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 33 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 29 | 21 | 117 | 519 | 95 | 28 | 28 | 16.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.87 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 12 | 101 | 457 | 79 | 29 | 26 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.60 | 5.94 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 65 | 31 | 12 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.52 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 64 | 26 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 107 | 733 | 3140 | 406 | 137 | 128 | 12.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.07 | 4.80 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 29 | 200 | 857 | 111 | 37 | 35 | 12.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.07 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Neal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | — | 4.84 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 78 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 86 |
| Walter Silva R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 79 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 78 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 77 |
| Jake Peavy R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 73 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 450 | 72 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.18 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 273 | 71 |
| J.D. Martin R 2025 · 5.87 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.87 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.85 | 289 | 70 |
| Colby Lewis R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 70 |
| Chris Smith R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 70 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 69 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 69 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 264 | 68 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.76 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 407 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 62 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.47 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 172 | 61 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 61 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 59 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 59 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.87 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.16 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.29 | 3.50 | 219 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.