Paolo Espino
P Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 35 | MLBWSH | 42 | 19 | 113 | 4.84 | 4.86 | 18.9% | 4.9% | -0.4 | ||
| 2023 | 36 | MIX2 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 5.60 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 0.5 | K 17.4% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.78 | |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX3 levels | 24 | 21 | 97 | 5.09 | 4.76 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 0.7 | K 13.0% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.81 | |
| 2025 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 40 | MLBTOR | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4.56 | 4.73 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJMLE | 41 | MLBTOR | — | — | 0 | 4.92 | 5.17 | 17.2% | 9.0% | — | ||
Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 28 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 156 | 630 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 93% | 5.6 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 3.47 | 3.73 | — |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 156 | 630 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 93% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 3.47 | 3.47 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | 26 | 24 | 153 | 631 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 92% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 3.30 | 3.42 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | 26 | 24 | 153 | 631 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 92% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 4.6% | 16.5% | 2.1% | 3.30 | 3.03 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 103 | 440 | 97 | 24 | 19 | 55% | 3.5 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 103 | 440 | 97 | 24 | 19 | 55% | 3.5 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 31 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 22 | 10 | 60 | 273 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 45% | 2.7 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 5.85 | 4.51 | — |
| 2018 | 31 | AAA RAW | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 22 | 10 | 60 | 273 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 45% | 2.7 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 4.37 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 97 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 15 | 89% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 14.3% | 4.3% | 5.59 | 4.54 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 97 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 15 | 89% | 5.1 | 24.7% | 6.1% | 18.6% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 3.78 | — |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 3.0 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 3.0 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.93 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | 35 | 19 | 110 | 455 | 92 | 23 | 19 | 54% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 4.27 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | 35 | 19 | 110 | 455 | 92 | 23 | 19 | 54% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 4.2% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | 42 | 19 | 113 | 487 | 92 | 24 | 24 | 45% | 2.7 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 4.84 | 4.83 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | 42 | 19 | 113 | 487 | 92 | 24 | 24 | 45% | 2.7 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 4.84 | 4.86 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 285 | 55 | 24 | 11 | 81% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.60 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 285 | 55 | 24 | 11 | 81% | 4.0 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.60 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 97 | 427 | 65 | 28 | 16 | 88% | 4.1 | 13.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 97 | 427 | 65 | 28 | 16 | 88% | 4.1 | 13.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 24 | 21 | 97 | 427 | 65 | 28 | 16 | 88% | 4.1 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 97 | 42 | 266 | 1150 | 217 | 67 | 55 | 43% | 2.7 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.12 | 4.91 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.73 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 41 | MLB MLE | TOR | 5 | 5 | 31 | 133 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB CTX | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 97 | 42 | 266 | 1150 | 217 | 67 | 55 | 43% | 2.7 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.12 | 4.87 | -1.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 73 | 32 | 200 | 866 | 163 | 50 | 41 | 43% | 2.7 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.12 | 4.87 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 243 | 166 | 958 | 4068 | 741 | 233 | 148 | 68% | 3.9 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.28 | +1.6 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 51 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 155 | 49 | 31 | 68% | 3.9 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.28 | +1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 87 IPFIP 4.49 → 4.81 (+0.31)K% 15.2% → 13.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 15.16% | — | ×0.860 | 13.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.12% | — | ×0.900 | 5.51% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.46% | ÷0.990 | ×1.100 | 3.84% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).
Result: FIP 4.49 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 60 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.78 (+0.22)K% 20.2% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.23% | — | ×0.860 | 17.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.17% | — | ×0.900 | 7.35% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.89% | ÷1.058 | ×1.100 | 4.05% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).
Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 92 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.54 (+0.57)K% 23.5% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.48% | — | ×0.880 | 20.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.06% | — | ×1.050 | 6.36% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.79% | ÷0.962 | ×1.100 | 4.33% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).
Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 60 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.51 (+0.23)K% 21.2% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.25% | — | ×0.880 | 18.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.16% | — | ×1.050 | 9.62% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.30% | ÷1.124 | ×1.100 | 3.23% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).
Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 79 IPFIP 3.66 → 3.89 (+0.23)K% 23.3% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.26% | — | ×0.880 | 20.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.23% | — | ×1.050 | 4.44% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.63% | ÷1.117 | ×1.100 | 3.57% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).
Result: FIP 3.66 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 153 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.42 (+0.38)K% 21.1% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.08% | — | ×0.880 | 18.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.60% | — | ×1.050 | 4.83% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.06% | ÷0.978 | ×1.100 | 2.32% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).
Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 118 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.65 (+0.11)K% 18.5% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.53% | — | ×0.880 | 16.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.00% | — | ×1.050 | 4.20% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.74% | ÷1.183 | ×1.100 | 2.54% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).
Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 38 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.97 (+0.65)K% 20.6% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.65% | — | ×0.810 | 16.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.10% | — | ×1.100 | 7.81% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.94% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | 2.36% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 1.7 | 70 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 1.72 | 5.02 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 1.8 | 62 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 1.58 | 4.80 |
| Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*) | 1.5 | 61 | 18.1%* | 8.0%* | 1.79* | 5.46* |
| Sam Gaviglio ('20) | 1.5 | 99 | 19.1% | 7.2% | 1.67 | 4.88 |
| Nelson Cruz ('03) | 1.7 | 58 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 1.52 | 5.04 |
| Bob Kipper ('85-'92, -1 WAR*) | 2.8 | 70 | 19.6%* | 8.8%* | 1.81* | 4.95* |
| Jose Bautista ('88-'97, -2 WAR*) | 3.4 | 86 | 14.0%* | 5.8%* | 1.72* | 4.90* |