Paolo Espino
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 39
RHP
5'10" / 212 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION45 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.18
FIP5.41
xFIP7.34
SIERA6.69
K%10.8%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%2.9%
IP45
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
CH+1.2 (23%)
CU (32%)
SL-0.8 (12%)
FB-3.2 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | 28 | 26 | 156 | 630 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 3.59 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | 26 | 24 | 153 | 631 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 3.30 | 3.45 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 16 | 103 | 440 | 97 | 24 | 19 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.82 | 4.31 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 31 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 22 | 10 | 60 | 273 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 17 | 97 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 15 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.59 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.88 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 35 | 19 | 110 | 455 | 92 | 23 | 19 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.27 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 42 | 19 | 113 | 487 | 92 | 24 | 24 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.84 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 16 | 13 | 64 | 285 | 55 | 24 | 11 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.60 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | 21 | 97 | 427 | 65 | 28 | 16 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.09 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 243 | 166 | 958 | 4068 | 743 | 241 | 145 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.26 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 155 | 50 | 30 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paolo Espino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.41 | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | — | 5.81 | 10.0% | 1.4% | 36 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 68 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 68 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 68 |
| Chris Young R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 66 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 63 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 59 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 57 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.32 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.23 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | -0.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 57 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 55 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 54 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 51 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 36 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 33 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 27 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 25 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 21 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 39 | SP- | 5.17 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 756 | 17 |
| Aaron Harang R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 0 |
| Barry Zito L 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 0 |
| John Lackey R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 0 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.