Paolo Espino
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.0
WAR
Age 39
RHP
5'10" / 212 lbs
AAA
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP7.34
SIERA6.69
K%18.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%10.7%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†3030
FB Velo
p1088.5
Whiff%
p2221.4%
K%
p2718.9%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
CH+1.2 (23%)
CU (32%)
SL-0.8 (12%)
FB-3.2 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | 28 | 26 | 156 | 630 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 3.47 | 3.76 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | 26 | 24 | 153 | 631 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 3.30 | 3.42 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 16 | 103 | 440 | 97 | 24 | 19 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 31 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 22 | 10 | 60 | 273 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 18.7% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 17 | 97 | 413 | 102 | 25 | 15 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.59 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 35 | 19 | 110 | 455 | 92 | 23 | 19 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.27 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 42 | 19 | 113 | 487 | 92 | 24 | 24 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.84 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 16 | 13 | 64 | 285 | 55 | 24 | 11 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 5.60 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | 21 | 97 | 427 | 65 | 28 | 16 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 38 | 20 | 9 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 31 | 18 | 8 | 14.1% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 243 | 166 | 958 | 4068 | 743 | 241 | 149 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.52 | 4.31 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 155 | 50 | 31 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.52 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paolo Espino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | — | 5.25 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 52 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 74 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 72 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 71 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 71 |
| Chris Young R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 68 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 67 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 60 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 58 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 57 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 57 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.33 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | +0.09 | 3.67 | 428 | 56 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 56 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 54 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 51 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.03 | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.0% | .262 | 4.46 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 148 | +0.43 | 4.03 | 375 | 51 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 41 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.20 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.1% | .264 | 5.70 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 2.03 | 133 | 34 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 31 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 28 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 28 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.