Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 5.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION187 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6775vR 83

ERA2.63

FIP2.57

K%26.5%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 204 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL6060

CMD5560

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p9031.8%

p7627.0%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

CH+1.4 (38%)

SI (44%)

SL-0.6 (19%)

FB-1.6 (44%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.483 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2027	Ext	$6M	+3.7	$36M	+$30M
2028	Ext	$9M	+2.9	$22M	+$15M
2029	Ext	$14M	+2.2	$14M	+$4M
2030	Ext	$15M	+1.5	$9M	-$1.0M
2031	Ext	$27M	+0.9	$2M	-$13M
2032	Ext	$12M	+0.3	$0.8M	-$6M
2033	Ext	$11M	—	—	—
Totals		$94M		$85M	+$25M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	20	89	16	16	0	0%	1.4	12.2%	22.5%	-10.2%	0.0%	3.54	4.91	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	15	0	20	89	16	16	0	0%	1.4	18.0%	18.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.54	3.89	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	13	11	62	257	42	12	0	85%	4.7	11.1%	5.8%	5.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.90	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	13	11	62	257	42	12	0	85%	4.7	16.3%	4.7%	11.7%	0.0%	3.06	2.32	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	13	7	39	198	30	16	8	54%	3.0	10.3%	10.1%	0.2%	5.7%	10.01	6.61	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	13	7	39	198	30	16	8	54%	3.0	15.2%	8.1%	7.1%	4.0%	10.01	5.48	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	10	10	43	197	34	22	3	100%	4.3	11.7%	14.0%	-2.2%	2.1%	4.60	5.05	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	10	10	43	197	34	22	3	100%	4.3	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	1.5%	4.60	3.96	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	10	76	308	73	25	3	42%	3.2	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	1.0%	2.26	3.24	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	10	76	308	73	25	3	42%	3.2	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	1.0%	2.26	2.68	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	86	384	102	55	5	69%	3.3	23.8%	14.9%	8.8%	1.4%	4.73	3.78	+1.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	86	384	102	55	5	69%	3.3	26.6%	14.3%	12.2%	1.3%	4.73	3.40	+1.5
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	97	415	93	36	6	57%	3.2	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	1.4%	4.16	3.24	+2.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	97	415	93	36	6	57%	3.2	22.4%	8.7%	13.7%	1.4%	4.16	3.10	+2.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	149	618	140	45	22	90%	5.1	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	3.5%	3.74	4.05	+1.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	149	618	140	45	22	90%	5.1	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	3.5%	3.74	4.05	+1.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	149	618	140	45	22	90%	5.1	22.7%	7.3%	15.4%	3.6%	3.74	4.05	+1.5
2024	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	31	31	182	754	153	44	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	1.4%	3.32	2.87	+4.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	31	31	182	754	153	44	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	1.4%	3.32	2.87	+4.7
2024	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	31	31	182	754	153	44	11	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	1.5%	3.32	2.93	+4.5
2025	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	202	807	212	44	12	100%	6.3	26.3%	5.5%	20.8%	1.4%	2.50	2.33	+6.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	202	807	212	44	12	100%	6.3	26.3%	5.5%	20.8%	1.4%	2.50	2.33	+6.8
2025	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	32	202	807	212	44	12	100%	6.3	26.3%	5.5%	20.8%	1.5%	2.50	2.43	+6.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			134	115	723	2971	719	169	61	86%	5.4	24.2%	5.7%	18.5%	2.1%	3.12	2.91	+18.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	187	778	210	42	16	100%	6.2	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	1.9%	2.79	2.56	+5.7
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	30	30	187	778	210	42	16	100%	6.2	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	1.9%	2.79	2.56	+5.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	PHI	30	30	187	778	210	42	16	100%	6.2	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	2.1%	2.79	2.63	+5.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	PHI	30	30	187	778	210	42	16	100%	6.2	27.0%	5.4%	21.6%	2.1%	2.79	2.63	+5.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PHI	3	3	16	69	18	4	1	100%	5.5	26.5%	5.5%	21.0%	1.8%	2.63	2.57	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	16	68	18	4	1	100%	5.3	26.5%	5.5%	21.0%	2.0%	2.70	2.64	+0.5
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	204	847	228	46	17	—	—	26.9%	5.4%	21.5%	2.0%	2.77	2.56	+6.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	204	860	228	46	17	—	—	26.5%	5.3%	21.2%	2.0%	2.78	2.64	+6.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	30	30	179	754	193	44	16	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.8%	19.8%	2.2%	3.18	3.24	+3.7
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	28	28	166	703	175	43	17	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.1%	18.7%	2.4%	3.35	3.47	+2.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	154	650	156	43	17	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.6%	3.58	3.73	+2.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	141	597	138	42	17	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.0%	16.2%	2.9%	3.84	4.01	+1.5
2031	34	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	129	543	121	41	17	100%	6.1	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.2%	4.12	4.31	+0.9
2032	35	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	115	487	104	39	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.5%	4.44	4.65	+0.3
2033	36	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	102	431	87	37	17	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.6%	11.6%	3.9%	4.78	5.01	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	30	30	179	756	193	44	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.8%	19.8%	2.3%	3.27	3.33	+3.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	28	28	166	701	174	43	18	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.1%	18.7%	2.6%	3.44	3.56	+2.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	26	26	154	650	156	43	18	100%	5.9	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.8%	3.68	3.83	+2.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	PHI	23	23	141	595	138	42	19	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.0%	16.2%	3.1%	3.96	4.13	+1.5
2031	34	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	129	545	121	41	19	100%	6.1	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.4%	4.25	4.44	+0.9
2032	35	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	115	486	104	39	18	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.8%	4.58	4.79	+0.3
2033	36	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	87	37	18	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.6%	11.6%	4.2%	4.94	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		300	281	1726	7205	1712	461	190	94%	5.8	23.8%	6.4%	17.4%	2.6%	3.57	3.35	+32.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	835	198	53	22	94%	5.8	23.8%	6.4%	17.4%	2.6%	3.57	3.35	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		253	192	1142	4805	1024	376	87	76%	4.5	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	1.8%	3.51	3.29	+29.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	34	200	841	179	66	15	76%	4.5	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	1.8%	3.51	3.29	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristopher Sánchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.13	24.4%	5.7%	1.8%	—	3.47	24.9%	18.7%	499	+0.34	—	—	—
Patrick Corbin L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	29	SP	2.30	30.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.298	4.13	23.6%	16.0%	439	+1.83	2.30	1,829	63
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	924	59
Madison Bumgarner L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	24.1%	4.7%	3.8%	.282	4.80	17.7%	11.3%	347	+1.02	2.80	1,257	58
Clayton Kershaw L 2017 · 2.93 FIP	29	SP	2.93	29.7%	4.4%	3.2%	.267	3.32	25.8%	20.8%	398	+0.39	1.44	1,477	55
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,402	46
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.36	1,167	44
Francisco Liriano L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	31	SP	3.14	26.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.289	4.64	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.50	3.14	650	41
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	39
Jon Lester L 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SP	2.81	25.0%	5.7%	2.0%	.299	3.86	22.7%	15.3%	565	+1.05	2.81	1,144	39
Cole Hamels L 2015 · 3.21 FIP	31	SP	3.21	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.05	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.84	3.21	893	38
Mike Montgomery L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP-	3.64	16.1%	6.6%	1.9%	.300	5.22	17.4%	8.6%	108	+1.58	3.43	764	38
David Price L 2015 · 2.65 FIP	29	SP	2.65	25.3%	5.1%	1.9%	.288	3.63	24.2%	18.0%	481	+0.98	2.65	922	37
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	37
Wei-Yin Chen L 2015 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	19.3%	5.2%	3.2%	.288	4.31	19.3%	13.2%	290	+0.43	3.68	549	37
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	36
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	650	35
Jake Odorizzi R 2019 · 3.16 FIP	29	SP	3.16	27.1%	8.1%	2.4%	.299	4.33	19.8%	12.5%	225	+1.17	3.16	1,048	35
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,197	34
Gio Gonzalez L 2015 · 2.90 FIP	29	SP	2.90	22.3%	8.7%	1.1%	.336	3.72	21.7%	12.8%	549	+0.82	2.90	864	34
Rick Porcello R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	29	SP	3.75	23.5%	5.9%	3.4%	.276	4.16	19.1%	13.5%	233	+0.41	3.13	1,023	33

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	147	23.6%	6.7%	1.04	3.70
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14