Cristopher Sánchez
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 5.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 78 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6372vR 81
ERA2.69
FIP2.64
K%26.6%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%21.5%
ROS IP78
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 205 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9032.0%
K%
p7827.4%
xwOBA vs
p840.279
CH+1.4 (39%)
SI (42%)
SL-0.6 (18%)
FB-1.6 (42%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays | 15 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.2% | 22.5% | -10.2% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 4.91 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays | 15 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 3.89 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 13 | 11 | 62 | 257 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 85% | 4.7 | 11.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 2.90 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 13 | 11 | 62 | 257 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 85% | 4.7 | 16.3% | 4.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 2.32 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 13 | 7 | 39 | 198 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 54% | 3.0 | 10.3% | 10.1% | 0.2% | 5.7% | 10.01 | 6.61 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 13 | 7 | 39 | 198 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 54% | 3.0 | 15.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 10.01 | 5.48 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 10 | 10 | 43 | 197 | 34 | 22 | 3 | 100% | 4.3 | 11.7% | 14.0% | -2.2% | 2.1% | 4.60 | 5.05 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 10 | 10 | 43 | 197 | 34 | 22 | 3 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.3% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 4.60 | 3.96 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 10 | 76 | 308 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 42% | 3.2 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 2.26 | 3.14 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 10 | 76 | 308 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 42% | 3.2 | 23.7% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 1.0% | 2.26 | 2.68 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 86 | 384 | 102 | 55 | 5 | 69% | 3.3 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 4.73 | 3.81 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 18 | 86 | 384 | 102 | 55 | 5 | 69% | 3.3 | 26.6% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 4.73 | 3.40 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 17 | 97 | 415 | 93 | 36 | 6 | 57% | 3.2 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 4.16 | 3.25 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 17 | 97 | 415 | 93 | 36 | 6 | 57% | 3.2 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 4.16 | 3.10 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 149 | 618 | 140 | 45 | 22 | 90% | 5.1 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 149 | 618 | 140 | 45 | 22 | 90% | 5.1 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 3.74 | 4.05 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 182 | 754 | 153 | 44 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 1.4% | 3.32 | 2.90 | +5.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 182 | 754 | 153 | 44 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 3.32 | 2.93 | +5.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 202 | 807 | 212 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 20.8% | 1.4% | 2.50 | 2.36 | +7.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 202 | 807 | 212 | 44 | 12 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 20.8% | 1.5% | 2.50 | 2.43 | +7.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 | 20 | 127 | 525 | 144 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.4 | 27.4% | 4.8% | 22.7% | 2.3% | 2.62 | 2.64 | +4.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 78 | 328 | 87 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 26.6% | 5.1% | 21.5% | 2.1% | 2.69 | 2.64 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 78 | 329 | 88 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 26.6% | 5.1% | 21.5% | 2.1% | 2.71 | 2.66 | +2.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 205 | 853 | 231 | 42 | 19 | — | — | 27.1% | 4.9% | 22.2% | 2.2% | 2.65 | 2.64 | +6.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 205 | 866 | 231 | 42 | 19 | — | — | 26.7% | 4.8% | 21.9% | 2.2% | 2.65 | 2.66 | +6.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 30 | 179 | 754 | 193 | 41 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 5.5% | 20.2% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 3.25 | +4.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 166 | 703 | 175 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 5.8% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.37 | 3.49 | +3.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 157 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.74 | +3.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 141 | 597 | 139 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 4.02 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 129 | 543 | 121 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 115 | 487 | 104 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.45 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 4.80 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 72 | 34 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 5.18 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 30 | 179 | 756 | 194 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 5.5% | 20.2% | 2.3% | 3.21 | 3.27 | +4.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 27 | 166 | 701 | 174 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 5.8% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 3.51 | +3.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 157 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 3.77 | +2.9 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 141 | 595 | 138 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.6% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 4.05 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 129 | 545 | 122 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 104 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 88 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 4.84 | 5.07 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 72 | 34 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 5.22 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 314 | 295 | 1816 | 7587 | 1790 | 477 | 207 | 94% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 6.3% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.40 | +42.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 835 | 197 | 53 | 23 | 94% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 6.3% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.40 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 243 | 182 | 1082 | 4552 | 960 | 364 | 86 | 75% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 3.36 | +25.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 34 | 200 | 841 | 177 | 67 | 16 | 75% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristopher Sánchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.16 | 24.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% | — | 3.48 | 24.9% | 19.1% | 499 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Shota Imanaga L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.58 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | .262 | 4.76 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 253 | +1.18 | 3.58 | 426 | 39 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2028 · 3.07 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.07 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.65 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.58 | 3.07 | 650 | 39 |
| J.A. Happ L 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.28 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .308 | 3.72 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.44 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 38 |
| Jon Lester L 2028 · 2.74 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.74 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% | .299 | 3.75 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 565 | +1.01 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 37 |
| Cole Hamels L 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.22 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .288 | 4.02 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 539 | +0.80 | 3.22 | 893 | 37 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 2.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.20 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .298 | 4.13 | 23.6% | 16.0% | 439 | +1.93 | 2.20 | 1,825 | 37 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 32.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .298 | 3.61 | 29.3% | 20.7% | 171 | +0.35 | 2.48 | 924 | 36 |
| David Price L 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.65 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.56 | 24.2% | 18.0% | 481 | +0.91 | 2.65 | 922 | 36 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.93 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.32 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.39 | 3.68 | 549 | 36 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 35 |
| Madison Bumgarner L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.79 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 347 | +0.79 | 2.81 | 1,257 | 33 |
| Clayton Kershaw L 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.11 | 29.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .267 | 3.51 | 25.8% | 20.8% | 398 | +0.40 | 1.52 | 1,477 | 32 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.90 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 1.1% | .336 | 3.75 | 21.7% | 12.8% | 549 | +0.85 | 2.90 | 864 | 32 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +1.11 | 3.53 | 609 | 32 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.22 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .279 | 3.85 | 22.6% | 15.0% | 234 | -0.37 | 2.90 | 1,596 | 31 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 30 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.12 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 3.3% | .323 | 4.21 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 431 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 30 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.89 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.2% | .265 | 4.24 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 411 | +1.35 | 2.89 | 540 | 29 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.80 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 412 | 29 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.84 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 440 | 28 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 141 | 23.3% | 6.6% | 1.13 | 3.82 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS | 8 | 155 | 22.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 3.70 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jordan Montgomery ('24) | 7 | 124 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.07 | 4.01 |
| Johnny Cueto ('23) | 8 | 128 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.08 | 3.76 |
| Jon Lester ('21) | 7 | 163 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 1.17 | 3.77 |