Cristopher Sánchez
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+4.2
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 4.2 · 2026
ERA3.09
FIP3.14
xFIP2.21
SIERA2.49
K%24.2%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%18.2%
IP186
trajectory · 10 yrs
4.2peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p9032.3%
K%
p9031.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.267
CH+1.4 (37%)
SI (45%)
SL-0.6 (18%)
FB-1.6 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays | 15 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12.2% | 22.5% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 13 | 11 | 62 | 257 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 11.1% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 3.06 | 2.90 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 13 | 7 | 39 | 198 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 10.3% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 10.01 | 6.61 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 10 | 10 | 43 | 197 | 34 | 22 | 3 | 11.7% | 14.0% | 2.1% | 4.60 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 24 | 10 | 76 | 308 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 2.26 | 3.23 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 18 | 86 | 384 | 102 | 55 | 5 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 1.5% | 4.73 | 3.78 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 17 | 97 | 415 | 93 | 36 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 1.4% | 4.16 | 3.26 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 26 | 149 | 618 | 140 | 45 | 22 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 3.74 | 4.09 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 182 | 754 | 153 | 44 | 11 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 3.32 | 2.85 | +5.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 32 | 202 | 807 | 212 | 44 | 12 | 26.3% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 2.50 | 2.31 | +6.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 32.6% | 7.4% | 1.1% | 2.01 | 1.86 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 27 | 151 | 637 | 173 | 40 | 11 | 27.2% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 2.39 | 2.52 | +4.8 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 173 | 732 | 204 | 47 | 12 | 27.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 2.34 | 2.43 | +5.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 156 | 660 | 176 | 42 | 11 | 26.7% | 6.4% | 1.7% | 2.90 | 2.99 | +4.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 592 | 154 | 38 | 11 | 26.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.02 | 3.09 | +3.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 134 | 35 | 10 | 25.4% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 3.21 | +3.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 116 | 32 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 3.25 | 3.34 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 24.1% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.39 | 3.48 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 85 | 26 | 8 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 78 | 21 | 7 | 24.6% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 3.52 | 3.52 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 65 | 19 | 7 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.70 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 39 | MLB | PHI | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 40 | MLB | PHI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 227 | 166 | 977 | 4122 | 847 | 346 | 73 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 3.40 | +21.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 71 | 15 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 3.62 | 3.40 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristopher Sánchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.14 | 24.6% | 6.0% | 1.8% | — | 3.09 | 26.1% | 19.6% | 422 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Scott Kazmir L 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.70 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.76 | 3.70 | 395 | 45 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 44 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.87 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .288 | 4.35 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.48 | 3.60 | 549 | 44 |
| Scott Diamond L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .330 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.33 | 3.45 | 316 | 43 |
| John Danks L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.92 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 200 | 43 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.01 | 14.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.74 | 14.5% | 7.1% | 336 | +0.73 | 4.01 | 642 | 43 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.79 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 412 | 42 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.85 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .297 | 5.60 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.75 | 3.85 | 162 | 42 |
| Cole Hamels L 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.22 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .288 | 4.09 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 539 | +0.87 | 3.22 | 893 | 42 |
| John Lannan L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.81 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.85 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 132 | +1.04 | 3.81 | 284 | 41 |
| J.A. Happ L 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.20 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.55 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 41 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.51 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .374 | 4.89 | 20.6% | 16.0% | 164 | +1.38 | 3.08 | 681 | 41 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2028 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.00 | 26.5% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.67 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 394 | +1.67 | 3.00 | 650 | 40 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 2.84 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.84 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 0.9% | .336 | 3.71 | 21.7% | 12.8% | 549 | +0.87 | 2.84 | 864 | 39 |
| Jon Lester L 2028 · 2.69 FIP | 31 | SP | 2.69 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.87 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 565 | +1.18 | 2.69 | 1,144 | 37 |
| David Price L 2026 · 2.58 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.58 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.59 | 24.2% | 18.0% | 481 | +1.01 | 2.58 | 922 | 37 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.24 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.22 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 431 | -0.02 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 37 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.56 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 440 | 36 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.46 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | .386 | 2.98 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 171 | -0.48 | 2.83 | 331 | 36 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 609 | 33 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2021
Service 3.483 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
OPTDEF 20%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $6M | +4.2 | $34M | +$28M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $6M | +4.1 | $34M | +$28M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $6M | +3.5 | $30M | +$24M |
| Totals | $17M | $97M | +$80M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2029 | CLUB OPT | $2030.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2030 | CLUB OPT | $14.0M / $1.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2031 | CLUB OPT | $15.0M / $1.0M buyout | DECLINE |