Shota Imanaga
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 32
LHP
5'10" / 175 lbs
MLB
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93102vR 111
ERA3.97
FIP4.40
K%23.2%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 180 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p6024.0%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB+3.0 (41%)
CH+2.8 (7%)
SL+1.4 (16%)
SI (7%)
CU (3%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 173 | 694 | 174 | 28 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 21.0% | 3.8% | 2.91 | 3.58 | +3.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 173 | 694 | 174 | 28 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 2.91 | 3.60 | +3.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 155 | 604 | 133 | 28 | 31 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.6% | 4.6% | 16.0% | 5.3% | 3.48 | 4.87 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 155 | 604 | 133 | 28 | 31 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.0% | 4.6% | 17.4% | 5.1% | 3.48 | 4.53 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 19 | 19 | 108 | 438 | 105 | 27 | 22 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 5.0% | 4.17 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 71 | 17 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 3.97 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 71 | 17 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 3.97 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 180 | 742 | 176 | 44 | 36 | — | — | 23.7% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 4.9% | 4.09 | 4.53 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 180 | 760 | 176 | 44 | 36 | — | — | 23.1% | 5.7% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 4.09 | 4.49 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 122 | 32 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | 4.9% | 4.79 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 119 | 503 | 107 | 32 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 5.2% | 5.14 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 107 | 451 | 91 | 31 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 5.48 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 122 | 33 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 16.2% | 4.9% | 4.79 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 106 | 32 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 5.2% | 5.14 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 91 | 31 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 5.6% | 5.48 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 145 | 145 | 855 | 3510 | 786 | 193 | 173 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 5.5% | 16.9% | 4.9% | 4.22 | 4.61 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 821 | 184 | 45 | 40 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 5.5% | 16.9% | 4.9% | 4.22 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 76 | 436 | 1736 | 404 | 83 | 81 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 4.6% | 3.42 | 4.29 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 796 | 185 | 38 | 37 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 4.6% | 3.42 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shota Imanaga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | — | 5.37 | 21.2% | 14.9% | 357 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 58 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.79 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 3.63 | 23.8% | 16.6% | 181 | -0.16 | 2.65 | 922 | 56 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.30 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .290 | 6.22 | 8.7% | -4.3% | 12 | +1.92 | 3.72 | 395 | 56 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 55 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.76 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.05 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 480 | +0.29 | 3.22 | 893 | 53 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.20 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 405 | 52 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.57 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.59 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 301 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 650 | 51 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 51 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.19 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .284 | 3.77 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 230 | -0.42 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 50 |
| Eric Stults L 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 50 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 49 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 49 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 48 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.90 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .311 | 3.68 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 385 | -0.22 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 48 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 48 |
| Duane Below L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.42 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 189 | 47 |
| Roy Merritt L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 47 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.61 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 4.8% | .267 | 4.63 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 273 | +0.02 | 2.42 | 807 | 45 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 45 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 125 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 1.93 | 4.85 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Tommy Milone ('20) | 6 | 71 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 1.85 | 5.23 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |