Shota Imanaga — OGILVIE

Shota Imanaga P Chicago Cubs

Age 32 LHP 5'10" / 175 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA3.96

FIP4.44

K%23.1%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 177 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB+3.0 (47%)

CH+2.8 (7%)

SL+1.4 (17%)

SI (6%)

CU (3%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+2.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+2.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	3.9%	2.91	3.60	+2.7
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	22.0%	4.6%	17.4%	5.1%	3.48	4.53	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			83	83	480	1922	447	91	92	100%	5.8	23.3%	4.7%	18.5%	4.8%	3.49	4.30	+3.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	162	661	156	37	34	100%	5.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	5.3%	3.88	4.75	+0.3
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	162	661	156	37	34	100%	5.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	5.3%	3.88	4.75	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	CHC	29	29	162	661	156	37	34	100%	5.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	5.1%	3.88	4.64	+0.5
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	CHC	29	29	162	661	156	37	34	100%	5.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	5.1%	3.88	4.64	+0.5
ROS	32	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	15	62	14	3	3	100%	7.3	23.1%	5.2%	17.9%	4.8%	3.96	4.44	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	15	63	15	3	3	100%	7.5	23.1%	5.2%	17.9%	4.8%	3.96	4.44	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	177	723	170	40	37	—	—	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	5.1%	3.89	4.72	+0.4
FULL	32	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	177	747	170	40	37	—	—	22.8%	5.4%	17.4%	4.9%	3.89	4.57	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	131	553	122	31	29	100%	6.0	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	5.2%	4.87	5.18	-0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	119	503	106	31	28	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	5.5%	5.24	5.48	-0.8
2027	33	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	131	553	122	31	29	100%	6.0	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	5.2%	4.87	5.18	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	20	20	119	502	106	31	28	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	5.5%	5.24	5.48	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	745	3040	690	157	151	100%	5.9	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	5.0%	4.02	4.57	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	816	185	42	41	100%	5.9	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	5.0%	4.02	4.57	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		86	86	491	1959	455	93	98	100%	5.7	23.2%	4.7%	18.5%	5.0%	3.41	4.48	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	799	185	38	40	100%	5.7	23.2%	4.7%	18.5%	5.0%	3.41	4.48	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shota Imanaga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	21.4%	4.5%	4.6%	—	5.32	21.6%	15.7%	250	+0.56	—	—	—
Scott Kazmir L 2016 · 4.11 FIP	32	SP	4.11	22.7%	8.3%	3.4%	.290	6.40	8.7%	-4.3%	12	+2.29	3.84	395	67
David Price L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	32	SP	3.86	24.5%	6.9%	3.5%	.268	3.61	23.8%	16.6%	181	-0.25	2.65	922	64
Cole Hamels L 2016 · 3.74 FIP	32	SP	3.74	23.6%	9.0%	2.7%	.294	4.12	21.4%	12.9%	480	+0.38	3.21	893	63
Wade Miley L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	19.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.284	3.75	17.9%	10.1%	230	-0.58	3.36	1,167	62
Francisco Liriano L 2016 · 4.57 FIP	32	SP	4.57	23.0%	11.5%	3.6%	.289	4.61	19.5%	7.6%	301	+0.04	3.14	650	60
Yusei Kikuchi L 2023 · 3.90 FIP	32	SP	3.90	25.9%	6.9%	3.9%	.311	3.76	24.9%	17.0%	407	-0.14	3.23	1,041	60
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	57
Mike Minor L 2020 · 4.75 FIP	32	SP	4.75	25.9%	8.4%	5.1%	.267	4.63	20.5%	14.0%	273	-0.12	2.43	807	54
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	53
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	52
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	49
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	49
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	49
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	48
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	48
Drew Smyly L 2021 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP-	4.89	21.4%	7.0%	5.0%	.291	4.49	21.6%	13.9%	307	-0.40	2.00	840	47
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	47
Duane Below L 2016 · 4.57 FIP	30	SP	4.57	14.7%	5.1%	3.8%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	189	47
Brett Anderson L 2020 · 3.94 FIP	32	SP	3.94	15.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.286	4.18	14.2%	7.4%	96	+0.24	3.49	706	47
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	131	21.6%	5.4%	1.96	4.77
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20