Shota Imanaga

P Chicago Cubs

Age 33 LHP 5'10" / 175 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBCHC	29	29	173	2.91	3.60	25.1%	4.0%	3.8
2025	31	MIX3 levels	28	28	155	3.48	4.53	22.0%	4.6%	1.6	K 20.6% · BB 4.6% · FIP 5.06
2026	32	MLBCHC	32	32	174	3.77	4.35	24.6%	5.2%	2.1
2027PROJ	33	MLBCHC	21	21	126	4.29	4.79	22.8%	5.0%	0.9
2028PROJ	34	MLBCHC	18	18	105	4.78	5.10	21.9%	5.5%	0.4
2029PROJ	35	MLBCHC	14	14	82	5.17	5.43	20.9%	6.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%63

xwOBA vs61

FB Velo10

Form3.72 ERA (proj 4.29) · K 26.3% (proj 22.8%) · BB 2.6% (proj 5.0%) ▲ last 60d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsMerrill Kelly (age 33) · Roy Merritt (age 31) · Jorge Castillo (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.79

K%22.8%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%17.7%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+3.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+3.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	3.9%	2.91	3.60	+3.8
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	+0.6
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	22.0%	4.6%	17.4%	5.1%	3.48	4.53	+1.6
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.2%	3.77	4.51	+1.8
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.2%	3.77	4.51	+1.8
2026	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.0%	3.77	4.35	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	86	492	1967	465	91	93	100%	5.7	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.7%	3.45	4.22	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CHC	21	21	126	532	121	27	25	100%	6.0	22.8%	5.0%	17.7%	4.7%	4.29	4.79	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	105	444	97	25	22	100%	5.8	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	5.0%	4.78	5.10	+0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	346	72	21	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	5.4%	5.17	5.43	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	18	18	105	443	97	25	22	100%	5.8	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	5.0%	4.78	5.10	+0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	82	346	72	21	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	5.4%	5.17	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	680	2757	634	137	134	100%	5.8	23.0%	5.0%	18.1%	4.9%	3.87	4.45	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	812	187	40	39	100%	5.8	23.0%	5.0%	18.1%	4.9%	3.87	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		89	89	503	2004	473	93	99	100%	5.6	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.9%	3.38	4.40	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	797	188	37	39	100%	5.6	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.9%	3.38	4.40	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 6 IPFIP -0.28 → 0.80 (+1.08)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.868	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP -0.28 → 0.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shota Imanaga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	22.8%	5.0%	4.7%	—	5.24	21.4%	15.7%	187	+0.45	—	—	—
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	34
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	32
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	31
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	31
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	905	31
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	29
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	29
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	28
Mark Hendrickson L 2007 · 3.78 FIP	33	SW	3.78	17.3%	4.7%	2.8%	.318	4.32	14.2%	8.0%	314	+0.54	3.04	1,169	28
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	28
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	27
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	27
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	26
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	25
Alfredo Simon R 2014 · 3.91 FIP	33	SP	3.91	15.5%	6.0%	2.5%	.256	4.88	13.7%	5.1%	261	+0.97	2.83	784	24
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	23
Jose Contreras R 2005 · 4.13 FIP	33	SP	4.13	18.0%	8.5%	2.7%	.254	4.04	14.4%	7.8%	506	-0.09	2.43	1,279	23
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	33	SP	3.87	20.7%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	23
Miles Mikolas R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP	3.94	19.0%	4.8%	3.3%	.247	4.44	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.50	3.13	1,386	23
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	21

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	134	23.0%	5.0%	1.87	3.93
A.J. Griffin ('17)	2.4	120	20.1%	7.3%	1.77	4.34
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Rick Reed ('88-'03, 20 WAR*)	7.7	155	17.8%*	4.3%*	1.39*	4.03*
George Stone ('67-'75, 5 WAR*)	5.1	128	17.8%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.42*
Scott Sanderson ('78-'96, 30 WAR*)	12.8	151	20.3%*	5.7%*	1.52*	4.18*