Shota Imanaga
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.7
WAR
Age 32
LHP
5'10" / 175 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.15
FIP4.74
xFIP3.17
SIERA3.00
K%22.4%
BB%4.9%
K-BB%17.5%
IP141
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†5060
FB Velo
p1592.0
Whiff%
p8330.4%
K%
p9029.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.250
FB+3.0 (41%)
CH+2.8 (7%)
SL+1.4 (15%)
SI (6%)
CU (2%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 29 | 173 | 694 | 174 | 28 | 27 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.91 | 3.65 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 28 | 155 | 604 | 133 | 28 | 31 | 20.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.48 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 4 | 22 | 82 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 37.8% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.45 | 2.02 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 120 | 24 | 19 | 26.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.11 | 3.86 | +1.8 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 131 | 543 | 151 | 29 | 21 | 27.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.00 | 3.56 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 123 | 26 | 21 | 24.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.07 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 105 | 24 | 19 | 24.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.37 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 89 | 22 | 17 | 23.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.58 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 82 | 17 | 15 | 24.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.60 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 68 | 16 | 14 | 23.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 56 | 14 | 12 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.87 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 61 | 350 | 1380 | 330 | 61 | 64 | 23.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.13 | 4.17 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 788 | 188 | 35 | 37 | 23.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.13 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shota Imanaga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | — | 4.56 | 24.3% | 18.8% | 310 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Eric Stults L 2029 · 4.27 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.27 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 138 | 62 |
| CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.13 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.27 | 3.67 | 756 | 59 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.65 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 132 | 57 |
| Duane Below L 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.56 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 189 | 56 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.42 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.43 | 3.99 | 405 | 56 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .290 | 6.46 | 8.7% | -4.3% | 12 | +2.18 | 3.70 | 395 | 52 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .284 | 3.75 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 230 | -0.48 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 52 |
| John Lannan L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.85 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 284 | 52 |
| Tommy Milone L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | .259 | 4.33 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 129 | -0.40 | 3.53 | 875 | 49 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.74 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.17 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 480 | +0.43 | 3.22 | 893 | 49 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.64 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 3.7% | .289 | 4.61 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 301 | -0.03 | 3.00 | 650 | 48 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.77 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 3.53 | 23.8% | 16.6% | 181 | -0.24 | 2.58 | 922 | 47 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 43 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.91 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 4.06 | 21.8% | 11.6% | 139 | +0.15 | 2.84 | 864 | 43 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 43 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 41 |
| Everett Teaford L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 41 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 40 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 39 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 38 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
NTCOPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $22M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.2 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.6M |
| 2029 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $11M | $19M | +$8M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | PLAYER OPT | $15.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $57.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2029 | PLAYER OPT | $15.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2030 | PLAYER OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2031 | CLUB OPT | $42.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2032 | PLAYER OPT | $15.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2033 | PLAYER OPT | $2026.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |