Shota Imanaga — OGILVIE

Shota Imanaga P Chicago Cubs

Age 33 LHP 5'10" / 175 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 149 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.79

K%22.8%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP149

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

FB+3.0 (46%)

CH+2.8 (7%)

SL+1.4 (17%)

SI (6%)

CU (3%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+2.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	4.0%	2.91	3.71	+2.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	29	29	173	694	174	28	27	100%	6.0	25.1%	4.0%	21.0%	3.9%	2.91	3.60	+2.7
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	5.7%	3.48	5.06	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	155	604	133	28	31	100%	5.5	22.0%	4.6%	17.4%	5.1%	3.48	4.53	+0.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.2%	3.77	4.51	+0.8
2026	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.2%	3.77	4.51	+0.8
2026	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	32	32	174	706	174	37	35	100%	5.4	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	5.0%	3.77	4.35	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	86	492	1967	465	91	93	100%	5.7	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.7%	3.45	4.22	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CHC	25	25	149	629	143	32	30	100%	6.0	22.8%	5.0%	17.7%	4.7%	4.29	4.79	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	23	23	135	572	125	32	29	100%	5.9	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	5.0%	4.78	5.10	-0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	122	513	107	31	28	100%	6.1	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	5.4%	5.17	5.43	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	135	570	125	32	29	100%	6.1	21.9%	5.5%	16.3%	5.0%	4.78	5.10	-0.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	CHC	20	20	122	515	108	31	28	100%	6.1	20.9%	6.1%	14.8%	5.4%	5.17	5.43	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	129	749	3052	697	154	149	100%	5.8	22.8%	5.0%	17.8%	4.9%	3.97	4.50	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	815	186	41	40	100%	5.8	22.8%	5.0%	17.8%	4.9%	3.97	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		89	89	503	2004	473	93	99	100%	5.6	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.9%	3.38	4.40	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	797	188	37	39	100%	5.6	23.6%	4.6%	19.0%	4.9%	3.38	4.40	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shota Imanaga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	22.8%	5.0%	4.7%	—	5.26	21.4%	15.6%	257	+0.47	—	—	—
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	34
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	32
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	31
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	31
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	905	31
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	29
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	29
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	28
Mark Hendrickson L 2007 · 3.78 FIP	33	SW	3.78	17.3%	4.7%	2.8%	.318	4.32	14.2%	8.0%	314	+0.54	3.04	1,169	28
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	28
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	27
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	27
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	26
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	25
Alfredo Simon R 2014 · 3.91 FIP	33	SP	3.91	15.5%	6.0%	2.5%	.256	4.88	13.7%	5.1%	261	+0.97	2.83	784	24
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	23
Jose Contreras R 2005 · 4.13 FIP	33	SP	4.13	18.0%	8.5%	2.7%	.254	4.04	14.4%	7.8%	506	-0.09	2.43	1,279	23
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	33	SP	3.87	20.7%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	23
Miles Mikolas R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP	3.94	19.0%	4.8%	3.3%	.247	4.44	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.50	3.13	1,386	23
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	21

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	150	22.8%	5.0%	1.88	4.03
A.J. Griffin ('17)	2.4	120	20.1%	7.3%	1.77	4.34
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.6	130	21.9%	7.3%	1.61	4.74
Andrew Heaney ('25)	5.7	103	23.8%	7.0%	1.58	4.57